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1.
The power of ESS: An experimental study 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Abstract. Our experimental design mimics a traditional evolutionary game framework where players are matched pairwise to play a symmetric
33 bimatrix game that has two Nash equilibria. One equilibrium is an evolutionary stable state, or ESS; the other is an equilibrium
in dominated strategies. Our primary experimental result is the observation that the ESS becomes extremely attractive when
subjects have minimal information about the payoff functions, although the dominated equilibrium assures the highest equilibrium
payoff. The attractiveness of the ESS is only moderate when players are completely informed about the 33 payoff matrix.
Correspondence to: S.K. Berninghaus 相似文献
2.
Esben Sloth Andersen 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2001,11(1):143-164
This paper presents the problem of satiation of consumption and technology in relation to a model of evolutionary endogenous
growth. The model represents an attempt to provide an evolutionary economic micro foundation to Pasinetti's scheme of the
structural economic dynamics of an economy that is based on only labour and knowledge. The micro foundation is based on a
set of rules that makes endogenous the demand coefficients, the labour coefficients, and the number of available sectors.
Through process innovations firms increase their productivities with respect to individual goods, but a growth slowdown takes
place unless the benefits from specialisation are exploited at still higher levels. Another cause for slowdown is related
to an Engelian hierarchy of goods. As the standard of living grows, existing sectors and consumption goods satiate, so new
sectors need to be provided by product innovations in a sufficient pace to keep up with the labour that is displaced from
old sectors. 相似文献
3.
An evolutionary model of the size distribution of firms 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Fariba Hashemi 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(5):507-521
An analytical study of the evolution of the distribution of firm size in an industry is presented. A drift-diffusion model
is proposed to express the time-evolution of density of firm size within the industry. The model blends the conventional,
more or less static, determinants with the kinds of dynamic considerations introduced by stochastic processes of evolutionary
dynamics. The steady-state distribution as well as the dynamic behavior of the model are derived. Parameters in the resulting
analytical expressions are then fit to a population of firms in the non-manufacturing service sector. The empirical portion
of the paper validates the proposed evolutionary model. 相似文献
4.
Eyüp Özveren 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(1-2):49-65
This paper evaluates Schumpeter's grand vision as reflected in his Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, and elaborates it in conjunction with the so-called “globalization” trends characteristic of the wake of the twenty-first
century. In addition to the evolutionary nature of his methodology, the institutionalist dimension of Schumpeter's definitions
are brought to light. A case is made for a fundamental process of “uncreative destruction” as far as the institutional setup
of the economy is concerned. The contention of this paper is that there is ample support in Schumpeterian analysis for a counterpoint
to the liberal thesis that envisages the worldwide spread of individualism, market economies, and democratic forms of government. 相似文献
5.
A resource-based view of Schumpeterian economic dynamics 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
John A. Mathews 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2002,12(1-2):29-54
This paper seeks to offer a theoretical platform where the modern “resource-based view” of the firm might meet with evolutionary
economics and the study of entrepreneurship, and with the economics of industrial organization. It does so by proposing the
concept of the “resource economy” within which productive resources are produced and exchanged between firms. This is presented
as the dual of the mainstream goods and services economy – where the “resource economy” captures the dynamic capital structure
of the economy. The paper is concerned to bring out the distinctive principles governing resource dynamics in the resource
economy, capturing competitive dynamics in such categories as resource creation, replication, propagation, exchange and leverage;
evolutionary dynamics in terms of resource variation, selection and retention; entrepreneurial dynamics in terms of resource
recombination and resource imitation, transfer and substitution; and industrial organizational dynamics in terms of resource
configuration, resource complementarities and resource trajectories. 相似文献
6.
Abstract. Enrollment rates to higher education reveal a quite large variation over time which cannot be explained by productivity shocks
alone. We develop a human capital investment model in an overlapping generations framework that features endogenous fluctuations
in the demand for education. Agents are heterogeneous in their beliefs about future wage differentials. An evolutionary competition
between the heterogeneous beliefs determines the fraction of the newborn generation having a certain belief. Costly access
to information on the returns to education induces agents to use potentially destabilizing backward looking prediction rules.
Only if previous generations experience regret about their human capital investment decisions, will agents choose a more sophisticated
prediction rule that dampens the cycle. Access to information becomes key for stable flows to higher education.
RID="*"
ID="*"We would like to thank Cars Hommes, Florian Wagener, seminar participants at the University of Amsterdam, participants
of the workshop on ‘Skill Needs and Labor Market Dynamics’ at the Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB) for
helpful discussions, and an editor of this Journal and three anonymous referees for their comments. Tuinstra's research is
supported by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) under a MaG-Pionier grant. Neugart acknowledges financial
support from the German Ministry of Education. Parts of the research were done while Tuinstra was visiting the WZB and when
Neugart was visiting CeNDEF.
Correspondence to: The research for this paper was done while the first author was affiliated with the Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung. 相似文献
7.
The paper reinterprets Schumpeter's views on the dynamic effects of taxation, as originally expressed in Crisis of the Tax State, from a Kaleckian perspective. In light of Schumpeter's rejection of Keynesian and Marshallian approaches to taxation, the
paper argues that a recently developed Kaleckian approach provides an appropriate basis from which to analyse the effects
on the business cycle of balanced changes in the structure of taxation. It is shown that, under certain shifting assumptions,
increases in the taxation of wages or profits will stimulate investment and attenuate the amplitude of the business cycle.
Ultimately, the shifting of taxes reduces to a conflict over income shares. The changing distribution of income in the United
Kingdom in recent years suggests that investment is likely to remain sluggish unless there is a significant reversal of income
shares. This may give rise to increasing economic and political tensions into the 21st century. 相似文献
8.
Birgitte Andersen 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》1999,9(4):487-526
Since the works by the business cycle theorists in the 1930s, no attempts have been made to study empirically the long term
evolution paths of individual technologies starting with long time series. This is an empirical exploration and confirmation
of the now almost assumed image or metaphor of the way technology develops; that it follows an S-shaped growth path which is commonly associated with a similar shaped diffusion function of entrepreneurial activity. The
paper also confirms the diversity of technology dynamics and explores how technological cycle takeoffs appear to be clustered
within certain historical epochs. The results have implications for our understanding of the evolution paths of individual
technologies, and of the evolution of technological systems and waves of innovation.
By use of computational statistics, logistic growth functions are fitted to US patent stocks, 1920–1990, at a detailed level
of aggregation, including chemical, electrical/electronic, mechanical, transport and non-industrial technologies. Some practical
considerations when developing an empirically testable model of innovation cycles are addressed in the paper as well. 相似文献
9.
Paul J. Zak 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2002,12(3):343-365
Recent biomedical research shows that roughly three-quarters of cognitive abilities are attributable to genetics and family
environment. This paper presents a growth model that characterizes the role of the intergenerational transmission of genes
and the effect of family environment on growth trajectories. If the average human or physical capital stocks are sufficiently
low, the model shows that the economy will be caught in a poverty trap. Conversely, countries with more resources will converge
to a bala nced growth path where the average rate of genetic transmission of skills from parents to children determines the
long-run rate of output growth. Increased genetic diversity (or income inequality) is shown to raise the fertility rate and
reduce output growth in the transitional dynamics. Thus, nature and nurture are able to explain a variety of countries' growth
experiences. 相似文献
10.
Evolutionary economics and economic geography 总被引:19,自引:0,他引:19
This article attempts to explore how key notions from Evolutionary Economics, such as selection, path-dependency, chance and increasing returns, may be applied to two key topics in Economic Geography. The first issue is the problem of how to specify the (potential)
impact of the spatial environment on new variety in terms of technological change. Evolutionary thinking may be useful to
describe and explain: (1) the process of localized `collective' learning in a regional context, (2) the adjustment problems
that regions may be confronted with in a world of increasing variation, and (3) the spatial formation of newly emerging industries
as an evolutionary process, in which the spatial connotation of increasing returns (that is, agglomeration economies) may result in a spatial lock-in. The second issue is the problem of how new variety may affect the long-term evolution of the spatial system. We distinguish
three approaches that, each in a different way, apply evolutionary notions to the nature of spatial evolution. This is strongly
related to the issue whether mechanisms of chance and increasing returns, rather than selection and path-dependency, lay at the root of the spatial evolution of new technology. 相似文献
11.
This paper suggests a class of stochastic collective learning processes exhibiting very irregular behavior. In particular,
there are multimodal long run distributions. Some of these modes may vanish as the population size increases. This may be
thought of as “bubbles” persistent for a finite range of population sizes but disappearing in the limit. The limit distribution
proves to be a discontinuous function of parameters determining the learning process. This gives rise to another type of “bubbles”:
limit outcomes corresponding to small perturbations of parameters are different. Since an agent's decision rule involves imitation
of the majority choice in a random sample of other members of the population, the resulting collective dynamics exhibit “herding”
or “epidemic” features.
RID="*"
ID="*" We are grateful to two anonymous referees for the comments and suggestions.
Correspondence to: L. Gaio 相似文献
12.
Could institutional reform have saved Easter Island? 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper extends the Brander and Taylor general-equilibrium model of population and resource management dynamics to a variety of institutional settings. The authors simulate the economic history of Easter Island, modifying the model to
examine the impact of market institutions and different property-rights structures. The major finding of the paper is that
modification of the economic institutions on Easter Island could have damped the feast-and-famine cycles that plagued its
later history. 相似文献
13.
Alexander Ebner 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(3):355-372
This essay addresses the historical and institutional aspects of Schumpeter's thought. It suggests that Schumpeter prepared
a pluralist research agenda, formulated in accordance with the conceptual perspective of the German Historical School, as
presented by major scholars such as Schmoller, Sombart, Spiethoff and Max Weber. Schumpeter's notion of development, with
its emphasis on the correspondence of economic and socio-cultural evolution, is therefore to be viewed in the context of the
comprehensive Schmollerian approach. Moreover the ethical-evolutionary components of Schmoller's ideas point at the vital
role of the German Historical School in the elaboration of a modern evolutionary economics in Schumpeterian terms. The essay
concludes that the Schmollerprogramm is going to inspire further developments in Schumpeterian economics, as the integration of theory and history continuously
marks the research agenda of evolutionary approaches to economic development. 相似文献
14.
Elias L. Khalil 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(4):373-393
Adam Smith's invisible hand metaphor (IH) is examined in light of two different accounts of the origin of traits: Charles
Darwin's theory of evolutionary optimization and William Paley's theory of divine intervention. Smith's stand supersedes both
accounts. For Smith, intermediating drives, such as the sexual one, neither arise accidentally and favored according to their
fitness à la Darwin nor planted by the Deity à la Paley. For Smith, such drives are adopted in light of their ultimate end. Smith did not provide an account of how the drives
are connected to their far-reaching, invisible beneficial ends or why do agents become dimly aware of that causality. 相似文献
15.
Ben Cooper 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(4):395-413
One way of thinking about research and development is to recognise that firms are trying to solve particular design problems. We often build these design problems into our models, but are forced to oversimplify them in order to make the models solvable.
The approach taken in this paper is to acknowledge that design problems are often insoluble using standard techniques and
to model instead the process by which firms solve them. Two such processes are simulated in detail. The first, individual experimental search, is based
on a problem-solving technique known as simulated annealing. The second, partial imitation, involves learning at a social level and is based on a problem-solving technique known as
the genetic algorithm. Some economic implications of these processes are explored, including their application to stochastic learning curves, patent
design and the importance of `technodiversity' in the introduction of new technology to developing countries. 相似文献
16.
Abstract. In this paper we look at unemployment as a phenomenon which reflects the co-ordination problems that characterize out-of-equilibrium
processes of adjustment. The analysis carried out shifts the focus from structural factors to the economic process. It shows
that unemployment cannot be satisfactorily explained – and policy interventions devised – by focusing only on specific characters
of the technology or confining the analysis to structural factors concerning the labour market. The co-ordination mechanisms
of adjustment processes rather than the fundamentals of the economy appear, in this light, as the main determinants of differences
in unemployment trends in different economies; and monetary policy comes back to the center of the stage as an essential element
of the working of these mechanisms.
RID="*"
ID="*" We thank anonymous referees for their very useful comments, and Elena Lega for the helpful support to the simulation
analysis carried out.
Correspondence to: J.-L. Gaffard 相似文献
17.
Amartya Lahiri 《Economic Theory》2001,17(1):197-208
Summary. The paper presents a human capital driven endogenous growth model which, in general, permits a multiplicity of equilibrium
balanced growth paths. It is shown that allowing for perfect capital mobility across countries increases the range of parameter values for which the model permits equilibrium indeterminacy. As opposed to the closed capital markets
case, simple restrictions on preferences are no longer sufficient to eliminate the indeterminacy. Intuitively, under perfect
capital mobility agents are able to smooth consumption completely. This induces an economy with open capital markets to behave
like a closed economy with linear preferences thereby increasing the possibility of equilibrium indeterminacy.
Received: 18 November 1998; revised version: 10 August 1999 相似文献
18.
Schumpeter and the revival of evolutionary economics: an appraisal of the literature 总被引:5,自引:1,他引:4
Jan Fagerberg 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2003,13(2):125-159
During the last two decades we have seen a revival of interest in the works of Joseph Schumpeter and “evolutionary” ideas
in economics more generally. A professional society honouring Schumpeter's name has been founded, and linked to it we have
had for more than fifteen years now a professional journal devoted to this stream of thought. However, it has been argued
that, despite these developments, the link between Schumpeter's own work and the more recent contributions to evolutionary
economics is in fact rather weak. This paper considers this claim. Based on an analysis of Schumpeter's contribution to economics
the paper presents an overview and assessment of the more recent literature in this area. It is argued that although there
are important differences between Schumpeter's work and some of the more recent contributions, there nevertheless remains
a strong common core that clearly distinguishes the evolutionary stream from other approaches (such as, for instance, so-called
“new growth theory”).
RID="*"
ID="*" Many people have contributed to this paper in various ways. Jon Hekland at the Norwegian Research Council started it
all by asking me to make an overview of the contribution from “evolutionary economics” to our understanding of contemporary
economies. Several people helped me on the way by supplying written material, comments and suggestions, and I am indebted
to all of them. Brian Arthur, Stan Metcalfe, Keith Pavitt, Erik Reinert, Paolo Saviotti and Bart Verspagen may be particularly
mentioned. A preliminary version was presented at the conference “Industrial R&D and Innovation Policy Learning – Evolutionary
Perspectives and New Methods for Impact Assessment” organised by the Norwegian Research Council (“SAKI”) at Leangkollen, Asker,
April 18–19.2002. I wish to thank the discussant, Tor Jakob Klette, and the participants at the conference for useful feedback.
Moreover I have benefited from comments and suggestions from the editors and referees of this journal. The final responsibility
is mine, however. Economic support from the Norwegian Research Council (“SAKI”) is gratefully acknowledged. 相似文献
19.
Maria T. Brouwer 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2002,12(1-2):83-105
This paper interprets the discussion on entrepreneurship and economic development that started off with Weber's papers on
the Protestant Ethic. Weber sought the reason for the relatively rapid growth of the Occident in the rational, Calvinist attitude
to life. Calvinism – in his view – exactly suited a society of free labourers, who were not tied to master and soil by extra-economic
considerations as in tribal and feudal societies. Schumpeter gave an alternative explanation, emphasizing the importance of
innovation and entrepreneurship. Knight, who stressed neither rationality nor innovation but uncertainty and perceptiveness
as the sole source of progress and profits, followed up German language writing on this subject. Only the investor who can
detect hitherto hidden qualities in people can gain. The paper demonstrates how these three authors influenced each other.
The debate between these three authors has raised many issues of governance and organization that feature contemporary thinking. 相似文献
20.
Adrian E. Tschoegl 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2001,11(3):359-384
Abstract. The system of denominations of US coins, which the paper treats as a quasi-genetic trait of the US monetary system, has not
been constant since inception but rather has evolved over time in the sense of being subject to innovation and selection.
However, all the innovations have disappeared, as have a number of the original denominations. Abstract theories of optimal
systems of denominations provide a good explanation of one selection factor, but other important influences include limiting
the number of separate denominations and accommodating the requirements of decimal counting. However, even some innovations
that ultimately disappeared survived for decades. 相似文献