Stochastic optimization applied to self-financing portfolio: does bequest matter?

The article studies stochastic optimization of an intertemporal consumption model to allocate financial assets between risky and risk-free assets. We use a stochastic optimization technique, in which utility is maximized subject to a self-financing portfolio constraint. The papers in literature have estimated the errors of Euler equations using data from financial markets. It has been shown that it is sufficient to test the first order Euler equation implied by the model. However, they all assume a constant consumption–wealth ratio that constrains the boundary conditions, hence influencing the coefficient of the risk premium. The main contribution of our article is that we drop the assumption of a constant consumption–wealth ratio. We have an analytical solution using a utility maximization model with a stochastic self-financing portfolio. We introduce a terminal condition of wealth with and without bequests. We also simulate the stochastic optimization with a self-financing portfolio, distinguishing risk neutral investors (γ-low) from high risk averse investors (γ-high). We show that the model with bequest has a higher level of wealth and a smoother decline of consumption over time than the model with no bequest at the end of the period. The model with no bequest has the same level of consumption and a sharp fall at the end of the period. Risk averse agents with high return assets have a higher amount of wealth than risk-neutral agents with lower return assets.     

Bidding and Overconfidence in Experimental Financial Markets

Overconfidence is a well-documented phenomenon in psychology. Psychologists define an overconfident individual as one who believes he has more accurate information than he actually does. Recently, behavioral economists have become interested in the implications of trader overconfidence for financial decision-making and the functioning of financial markets. To date, most financial market studies have been analytical in nature. These studies assume that traders are overconfident and model decision-making behavior accordingly. Rather than assuming the presence of overconfidence, we use experimental bidding data to determine the extent to which trader overconfidence exists, and what variables suggested by previous finance and psychology research relate to it. We find approximately 40% of subjects exhibited overconfidence. Variables that distinguish overconfident bidding from risk-averse and risk-neutral bidding include the traditional financial variables that explain bidding (expected value and standard deviation), non-traditional financial variables, and variables relating to the self-attribution bias and feedback. Contrary to what some analysts have suggested, experience did not reduce overconfidence.     

自我归因偏差、学习与股民的过度自信

本文利用中国股民交易记录数据考察了自我归因偏差带来的反馈效应和投资经验带来的学习效应对股民的过度自信的影响。研究发现，股民的历史投资收益对其过度交易存在正向影响，即股民历史投资收益越高，则过度交易程度就越大。这表明良好的历史投资收益会通过自我归因偏差心理加剧投资者过度自信程度。而在控制了历史投资表现之后，笔者发现股民的投资经验对其过度交易的影响并不显著。过度交易或者过度自信并没有随着股民投资经验的积累而得到减弱。     

The impact of experience on risk taking, overconfidence, and herding of fund managers: Complementary survey evidence

Empirical research has shown that inexperienced fund managers yield significantly higher returns than their more experienced colleagues. If the portfolios of inexperienced are not more risky, this result would contradict the hypothesis of market efficiency. Therefore, it is an important question whether inexperienced fund managers tend to taker higher risks. Higher risk taking may be explained by a higher degree of overconfidence, less herding behavior, or a lower degree of risk aversion. Since the results concerning the relationship between experience and risk taking in previous studies are rather contradictory we provide complementary survey evidence of 117 German fund managers which can improve our understanding in this field. In line with the results of previous studies, we find that herding is decreasing with experience while the evidence concerning risk taking and overconfidence is mixed. Nevertheless, our results provide some support for the hypothesis that inexperienced managers do indeed take higher risks.     

Asset pricing in an Islamic economy

ABSTRACT

We define an Islamic economy as one with borrowing restrictions, no leverage, and no risk-free asset. We derive a consumption-based asset pricing model for this economy under standard preferences. We demonstrate that news to consumption growth is the main driver of Islamic financial markets, but the degree of borrowing constraints also affects the pricing of Islamic assets. Using Saudi Arabian data, simulations show that our model does a good job in matching the observed equity premium as well as the volatility of the market return. Our model implies that the price-dividend ratio predicts dividend growth, and as a result that prices are driven mainly by cash-flow news rather than by discount rate news. Empirical tests show that our model is consistent with the data.     

Variety‐Controlling Public Policy Under Addiction and Saturation

This paper constructs a tractable general equilibrium model for investigating the dissimilar effects of addiction and saturation on consumption and public policy. By introducing an industry‐specific intertemporal consumption externality, we provide clear analytical results that a lump‐sum subsidy for firms can increase welfare in the presence of a negative externality (saturation). A tax can accomplish the same given a positive externality (addiction). Unlike existing studies of cultural goods, these results are not based on assumptions concerning exogenous different preferences across groups, but rather on conventional monopolistic competition and consumption habit formation models in macroeconomics.     

Redistribution of Economic Resources due to Conflict: The Maoist Uprising in Nepal

Nepal has seen a significant reduction in poverty over the period 1995–2010 which encompasses the decade-long Maoist-led civil war. So was the post-conflict provision of economic resources to districts related to their involvement in promoting the Maoist cause? We tackle this question combining theory and empirics. Our model predicts that poorer districts are more likely to support the Maoists and in return they get promised economic gains conditional on the Maoists prevailing post-conflict. Combining data on conflict with consumption expenditure data from the Nepal Living Standards Survey and data on foreign aid, we test these predictions. Our panel data estimates and our cross-sectional analysis consistently find strong support for our hypotheses. These are confirmed by the IV analysis that we perform at the panel level.     

Cross-sectional and time-series momentum returns and market dynamics: evidence from Japan

We test the behavioural theories of overconfidence and underreaction on cross-sectional (CS) and time-series (TS) momentum returns in the Japanese stock markets. Both CS and TS momentum returns are large and significant when the market continues in the same state and turns into losses when the market transitions to another state, consistent with the overconfidence but not the underreaction model. We find that TS conditional momentum returns exceed conditional CS momentum returns because of its active position since TS takes a net long (short) position following UP (DN) markets while CS is a zero-cost strategy irrespective of the market state. Finally, we find no relation between idiosyncratic volatility (IV) and momentum returns which is not supportive of either the overconfidence or underreaction model but implies that IV is not a significant limit to arbitrage in Japan.     

高管持股对创新可持续性的影响研究

企业创新活动一旦中断将会产生巨大的调整成本损失。因此,如何保持企业创新可持续性是企业创新研究的重要问题。结合委托代理理论,探索了企业高管持股对创新可持续性的影响,并进一步讨论了高管过度自信与产权性质的调节作用。使用2003-2014年中国A股制造业上市公司面板数据进行实证分析,结果表明：高管持股对企业创新可持续性具有显著正向影响,高管过度自信则弱化了两者间正向关系,而相对于非民营企业,民营企业高管持股对创新可持续性的正向作用更强。同时考虑两种情境效应的综合影响时,在民营企业中高管过度自信的负向调节作用更强。最后,考虑了遗漏变量带来的“选择偏差问题”和内生性问题,采用基于Kernel匹配得分法的反事实检验,为实证结果提供了稳健性证明。     

The Overconfident Principles of Economics Student: An Examination of a Metacognitive Skill

Students in a large principles of macroeconomics class were asked to predict their performance on a regularly scheduled midterm examination. The author collected and analyzed data to examine the effect of various demographic characteristics, academic endowments, course preparation, and course performance variables on the accuracy of pretest expectations. A two-equation recursive model was estimated by the author to determine which factors influenced the accuracy of student expectations (predictive calibration). The results indicated that a pervasive degree of overconfidence existed within the sample. Although age and overall academic performance were found to temper overconfidence, students with credit in a previous economics course had a greater probability of reporting overconfident expectations. Overconfidence was found to be associated with lower degrees of predictive calibration. Misjudgments concerning the scope of the midterm were found to lower predictive calibration scores, ceteris paribus. These and other results indicate that unmet student performance expectations may be a root cause for the routinely observed student dissatisfaction within the traditional principles course.     

融资约束下CEO过度自信是否会导致企业R & D投资扭曲

从融资约束角度出发,以我国2003-2014年沪深上市制造业和信息技术业企业为样本,通过对R&D动态投资模型和投资扭曲模型进行面板分析发现：与固定资产投资相比,CEO过度自信对企业R&D融资约束影响更明显,从而导致其对R&D投资扭曲的影响也更显著。通过企业异质性检验发现,对于易受融资约束的中小企业,CEO过度自信会造成其投资不足,而对于不易受融资约束的企业,CEO过度自信并不会造成其过度投资。因此,CEO过度自信对企业创新投入的促进作用只在企业不受融资约束时才成立。     

Run theorems for low returns and large banks

In this paper, we revisit the issue of bank fragility in the Diamond and Dybvig (J Polit Econ 91:401–419, 1983) model with sequential service and finite traders. We provide a precise condition under which banks are susceptible to a run when the return on investment is low, and we show that sufficiently large banks are always susceptible to a run. One interpretation of the condition is that exposure to runs occurs when desire for consumption smoothing or predictability of preference profiles are relatively high.     

Remittances and temporary migration

In this paper we study the remittance behavior of immigrants and how it relates to temporary versus permanent migration plans. We use a unique data source that provides unusual detail on remittances and return plans, and follows the same household over time. Our data allows us also to distinguish between different purposes of remittances. We analyze the association between individual and household characteristics and the geographic location of the family as well as return plans, and remittances. The panel nature of our data allows us to condition on household fixed effects. To address measurement error and reverse causality, we use an instrumental variable estimator. Our results show that changes in return plans are related to large changes in remittance flows.     

A risk index to model uncertain portfolio investment with options

This paper models the portfolio investment performance with options by using a risk index, which is defined as the average loss below the risk-free interest rate. Using a risk-free interest rate as the uniform reference rate for all portfolios, the risk index offers an easier-to-compare loss value than the value-at-risk return, where portfolio specific references are used to calculate the average losses. Besides, uncertainty theory is used in the paper to derive the portfolio decision when stock prices are subject to experts' estimations. By analytical computation and empirical analysis, we find that portfolios considering options generate better return than the ones without options. The empirical analysis reveals that the options can effectively hedge the risk, and the call option with a higher exercise price offers higher return per unit of option premium. Furthermore, our proposed model produces higher expected return in most cases than the model where the risk is measured by the chance of the total return failing to reach the threshold level of return.     

Substituting Distribution for Growth: The Political Logic of Intergovernmental Transfers in the Russian Federation

Given limited resources and economic realities, how do politicians distribute monetary transfers in order to retain office? Previous work has largely focused on two models – a core model of rewarding loyal supporters and a swing model of purchasing the support of easily swayed voters. Empirical results have proven mixed, however. In this article, we argue that these mixed results are due to economic factors, which condition politicians' distributive strategies. In our model, we consider that politician and voters are involved in a repeated game, where past expectations condition future strategy. Current (core) supporters who receive few benefits and perceive themselves worse off than other, less loyal, groups are likely to be less loyal themselves tomorrow. In our model, politicians avoid this by providing their supporters consumption benefits directly, in the form of transfers, or indirectly, via strong economic growth. Where economic growth is good, politicians can distribute less to core supporters, who benefit from the rising economy. Where economic growth is weak, however, politicians make transfers to their core supporters to ensure future loyalty. We test our theory using data on federal transfers from the Russian Federal government to 78 Russian Regions from 2000–2008.     

A new measurement method of investor overconfidence

We present an alternative measurement method of investor overconfidence, using unique survey data on stock market predictions of investors. We apply the Parkinson estimate based on extreme bounds around the stock forecast to deduce investor confidence. The results support overconfidence.     

CEO过度自信、权力配置与股价崩盘风险*

基于沪深两市2006—2013年A股上市公司的面板数据,本文从行为金融视角出发考察了CEO过度自信心理特征及其权力配置对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究发现CEO过度自信会增大公司股价崩盘风险;并且,随着CEO权力增大,过度自信更容易导致公司股价崩盘现象发生。进一步将CEO权力细分为选择权和决断权之后发现,只有CEO决断权增大能显著加剧过度自信对股价崩盘风险的负面影响,且这一关系只有在选择权得到保证后成立。     

BUFFER-STOCK SAVING AND HOUSEHOLDS' RESPONSE TO INCOME SHOCKS

We exploit information on the joint dynamics of household labor income, consumption, and wealth in the Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth to structurally estimate a buffer-stock saving model. We compare the degree of consumption smoothing implied by the model to the corresponding empirical estimates based on the same data set. We estimate that Italian households smooth 12% of permanent income shocks in the data that is comparable to the model counterpart of 11% . This result contrasts with existing evidence, and our own findings in this article, of substantially more consumption smoothing in U.S. data.     

Threshold effect in the relationship between investor sentiment and stock market returns: a PSTR specification

This article verifies whether the hypothesis of heterogeneous agent modelling and the behavioural heterogeneity framework can reproduce recent stylized facts regarding stock markets (e.g. the 1987 crash, internet bubble, and subprime crisis). To this end, we investigate the relationship between investor sentiment and stock market returns for the G7 countries from June 1987 to February 2014. We propose an empirical non-linear panel data specification based on the panel switching transition model to capture the investor sentiment-stock return relationship, while enabling investor sentiment to act asymmetrically, non-linearly, and time varyingly according to the market state and investor attitude towards risk. Our findings are twofold. First, we show that the hypotheses of efficiency, rationality, and representative agent do not hold in reproducing stock market dynamics. Second, investor sentiment affects stock returns significantly and non-linearly, but its effects vary with the market conditions. Indeed, the market appears predominated by fundamental investors in the first regime. In the second regime, investor sentiment effect is positively activated, increasing stock returns; however, when their overconfidence sentiment exceeds some threshold, this effect becomes inverse in the third regime for a high threshold level of market confidence and investor over-optimism.     

LIQUIDITY,MONETARY POLICY,AND UNEMPLOYMENT: A NEW MONETARIST APPROACH

We discover a consumption channel of monetary policy in a model with money and government bonds. When the central bank withdraws government bonds (short‐term or long‐term) through open market operations, it lowers returns on bonds. The lower return has a direct negative impact on consumption by households that hold bonds and an indirect negative impact on consumption by households that hold money. As a result, firms earn less profits from production, which leads to higher unemployment. The existence of such a consumption channel can help us understand the effects of unconventional monetary policy.