海外投资风险与金融规避

正美国铧亚金融证券,结合中、马、港、台等地的投资银行、私人银行、财富管理、证券投资、私募股权基金、企业兼并、法律顾问、会计审计、融资租赁、外汇、期货、信托管理等领域,资深人员从业人员组成的管理团队,美国香港全球金融,并掌握大中华市场的枢纽地位,是立足美国、香港,放眼亚洲的市场战略,涉及到中华市场。美国铧亚金融集团设立的企业目标很简单就是听听大中华的声音,作为大中华的眼睛,当大中华创新金融     

财政部、证监会、审计署、银监会、保监会关于印发《企业内部控制基本规范》的通知

中直管理局,铁道部、国管局,总后勤部、武警总部,各省、自治区、直辖市、计划单列市财政厅（局）、审计厅（局）,新疆生产建设兵团财务局、审计局,中国证监会各省、自治区、直辖市、计划单列市监管局,中国证监会上海、深圳专员办,各保监局、保险公司,各银监局、政策性银行、国有商业银行、股份制商业银行、邮政储蓄银行、资产管理公司,各省级农村信用联社,银监会直接管理的信托公司、财务公司、租赁公司,有关中央管理企业：     

标准体系在现代企业管理中的作用

正现代企业管理,主要指运用各类策略与方法,对企业中的人、设备、原材料、工艺、资产、信息、品牌、销售渠道等进行科学管理,从而实现组织目标的活动,由此对应衍生为各个管理分支:质量管理、设备管理、生产管理、采购管理、人力资源管理、行政管理、财务管理、研发管理、营销管理等,需要管理的内容涉及"人"、"物"、"事"的方方面面,是一个充满纵横交错关系的、有机的、复杂的系统。     

博采众长提升我国社区卫生服务质量——来自国内外文献研究综述

社区卫生服务（community Health Service）是社区建设的重要组成部分,是在政府领导、社区参与、上级卫生机构指导下,以基层卫生机构为主体,全科医师为骨干,合理使用社区资源和适宜技术,以人的健康为中心、家庭为单位、社区为范围、需求为导向,以妇女、儿童、老年人、慢性病病人、残疾人等为重点,以解决社区主要卫生问题,满足基本卫生服务需求为目的,融预防、医疗保健、康复、健康教育、计划生育技术服务等为一体的,有效、经济、方便、综合、连续的基本卫生服务。     

职场心理沟通十五条

一、讲出来尤其是坦白地讲出来你内心的感受、感情、痛苦、想法和期望,但绝对不是批评、责备、抱怨、攻击。二、不批评、不责备、不抱怨、不攻击、不说教批评、责备、抱怨、攻击、说教都是沟通的刽子手,只会使事情恶化。三、互相尊重只有给予对方尊重才有沟通,若对方不尊重你时,你也要适当的请求对方的尊重,否则很难沟通。四、绝不口出恶言恶言伤人,就是所谓的＂祸从口出＂。五、不说不该说的话如果说了不该说的话,往往要花费极大的代价来弥补,正是所谓的＂一言既出,驷马难追＂、＂病从口入,祸从口出＂,甚至于还可能造成无可弥补的终生遗憾。所以沟通不能够信口雌黄、口无遮拦,但是完全不说话,有时候也会变得更恶劣。     

近雅 远俗

雅,即正规、标准、高尚,有阳春白雪之称,有文雅、高雅、优雅、雅致之说,有情调、情趣、情致之分。人们有文明的举止、整洁的仪表、优雅的谈吐、高尚的品德、渊博的知识、聪慧的仪态,都是"雅"。雅,是一种情怀,一种修养。情怀,呈现在家庭的布置中,表示在衣饰的边幅中,品味在谈话的涵养中,显现在友情的微笑中;修     

美国拟修订能源标签规则

近日,美国联邦贸易委员会提出了关于修订能源标签规则的议案,涉及多类消费品的标签,包括灯泡、电器、室内空调、吊扇、冰箱及熔炉等.根据能源标签规则,生产商必须在若干类产品附上黄色的EnergyGuide能效标签,列明每年的运作成本、能耗等级,以及所有相同类型产品的最高和最低能耗范围以作比较,适用产品包括洗衣机、洗碗碟机、冰箱、冰柜、热水器、室内空调、中央空调系统、熔炉、锅炉、热泵、泳池加热器及电视机等。     

奇石鉴赏

砚石是观赏石的一种,它是中华文化的传承,文房四宝之一,记录了几千年中华文明的历史。砚石石质细腻,叩之有声,硬度适中,颜色美丽,纹理清新,如广东佛山的瑞砚、安徽的歙砚、甘肃的洮砚、山西的澄泥砚,另有红丝砚、徐公砚、松花砚、易水砚、盘古砚、苴却砚,共为十大名砚。     

立足东北东部经济带 促本溪经济新腾飞

《中共中央国务院关于实施东北地区等老工业基地振兴战略的若干意见》中特别指出,“建设纵贯东北东部地区的铁路工程,形成东北新的出海通道”。形成这一出海通道的目的在于,要构建东北东部城市,形成一条经济带,地域性的发展东北东部地区。东北东部地区地理位置优越,与俄罗斯、朝鲜相邻,区位独特,资源丰富,是东北地区重要的粮食、煤炭、木材、钢铁基地。跨越辽、吉、黑三省,涵盖辽宁省的抚顺、本溪、丹东,吉林省的吉林、通化、白山、延边,黑龙江省的鸡西、鹤岗、双鸭山、佳木斯、七台河、牡丹江共13个城市。这13个市地域相问,     

浅谈技术管理在基本建设中的作用

油田基本建设中,由生产管理、预(结)算管理、财务管理、材料管理和技术管理等几大管理组成,而一个企业的生存和发展、经济效益的好坏,与生产、预算、财务、材料和技术管理是紧密相关的,下面从几个方面加以论述。一、开工前的准备1、招、投标的准备1)技术人员首先要掌握工程处的具体情况,收集,整理管理人员的资质、证书,以及从事本职工作的时间,业绩等。施工人员的岗位操作证,技术水平,工作责质等。     

World Economic Prospects

Overview: Dollar surge brings mixed consequences

• The strengthening dollar is now becoming a significant factor for global growth and our forecasts. The tradeweighted dollar is up 2.5% over the last month and over 12% on a year ago.
• Driving the latest rise are growing expectations of US rate hikes while monetary policy in many other major economies is headed in the opposite direction.
• The beginning of ECB QE has prompted a further slide in bond yields and the euro – which at 1.06/US$ is on course to fulfill our forecast of near‐parity by year‐end. Weak data in Japan also raises the chance of a further expansion of QE there later this year.
• We remain relatively positive about the advanced economies: we forecast G7 GDP growth at 2.2% for 2015 and 2.3% next. This month we have revised up German growth for 2015 to 2.4% – a four‐year high.
• Robust US growth and a strong dollar are good news for the advanced economies. US import volume growth firmed to over 5% on the year in January, while the dollar surge potentially boosts the share of other advanced countries in this growing market.
• But for the emerging economies the picture is mixed. A stronger US may boost exports, but rising US rates are pulling capital away: there has been a slump in portfolio inflows into emergers in recent months. Emerging growth may also suffer from higher costs of dollar funding and a rising burden of dollar debt as currencies soften – the more so if US rates rise faster than markets expect.
• Moreover, emergers are also under pressure from a slowing China. Chinese import growth has been weak of late and commodity prices remain under downward pressure. A notable casualty has been Brazil, which we have downgraded again this month – GDP is expected to slump 1.1% this year.
• Emerging GDP growth overall is expected to slip to 3.7% this year, the lowest since 2009. And excluding China, emerging growth will be only 2.2% – the same as the G7 and the worst performance relative to the advanced economies since 1999.

     

WORLD OUTLOOK

Unless the international debt situation or the crisis in the US domestic financial system worsens or there is a further lurch into protectionism, we expect world output to advance more rapidly over the next 2 months than it has over the last year. We argued in May that the world recovery was pausing, just as it did in 1977, and that conditions were falling into place for a pick-up in output. The requirements were seen as a lower dollar, to improve US competitiveness and to alleviate protectionist pressures, and stronger domestic demand elsewhere, to offset the resulting loss of US markets. Since then the case for a lower dollar has been recognised by the Group of Five Finance Ministers, interest rates have fallen and, at the G5 meeting, West Germany and Japan tentatively revealed a further modest stimulus. Output optimism is underpinned by the fall in world inflation to levels not seen since the early 1970s which, our forecast suggests, will be consolidated over the next 12 months. This reflects falling real oil and non-oil Commodity prices and decelerating earnings, which makes a further tightening of policy unlikely. In these circumstances the prospects for output are improving and over the next 12 months we forecast an increase in OECD output of 4per cent.     

Why ‘King dollar’ is reigning supreme

• ▀ After a pause in late 2017 and early 2018, the dollar has resumed its rise. Our analysis suggests the long-term factors influencing the dollar are likely to remain supportive in 2020, ebbing only in 2021.
• ▀ Alongside positive interest rate differentials, several key factors explain the recent dollar strength including relatively strong economic growth, a contained external deficit and significant equity market outperformance.
• ▀ Over 2018–2019 US growth has been faster than the rest of the G7, which suffered more downside surprises this year. Meanwhile, the deterioration in the US external deficit was less than expected, despite the Trump fiscal stimulus.
• ▀ The massive improvement in the US oil balance over recent years looks like an important long-term structural support for the dollar. It allows the US to grow faster and have a stronger currency than would otherwise have been the case.
• ▀ The dollar is also supported by its still-dominant position in global financial markets. Recent talk of ‘de-dollarisation’ looks to be largely hype - the dollar's share of cross-border transactions, trade invoicing, and FX reserves is high and either stable or rising.
• ▀ The conditions necessary to create another dollar bear market like that in 2002–2008 may be hard to reproduce. A period of relative underperformance in US stocks is conceivable, but the 2002–2008 period also featured large US basic balance of payments deficits and persistently negative long-term real yield differentials, which look less likely to materialise.

     

A long dollar fall: likelihood and consequences

• ? The dollar has tended to move in long swings over the last forty years, raising the risk that the recent decline could extend considerably further. This is not our base case, but risks do look skewed towards additional dollar weakness. Our modelling work suggests that a large further dollar slide would have significant effects on the pattern of world growth – the US and some emerging markets would gain, with other advanced economies the main losers.
• ? There have been several large multi‐year swings in the dollar over the last four decades. We identify seven such episodes since 1971 including three long declines averaging 31%, the last being in 2002‐08. Since 2017 the dollar has fallen 10%, implying a possible further considerable drop.
• ? Our dollar strength indicator, which covers a range of economic variables associated with dollar moves in the past, does not currently point to a re‐run of the dollar weakness of the 2000s. But we do expect some further near‐term dollar losses and risks to our baseline forecast look skewed to the downside, especially given the emergence of large twin deficits in the US.
• ? Should a further large dollar slump nevertheless occur, our modelling suggests large effects on the pattern of world growth. The main gainers would be commodity‐producing emerging markets (EM) benefitting from improved terms of trade, positive balance sheet and external liquidity effects and scope to ease local interest rates. Rising US yields would erode some of these gains in later years.
• ? The main initial losers would be advanced economies outside the US which would lose competitiveness. In the case of the Eurozone and Japan, undershoots of inflation targets would be likely. There could also be some other negative consequences such as stoking protectionism and creating financial bubbles in some EMs.

     

人民币实际有效汇率的分解和马歇尔—勒纳条件的修正

马歇尔-勒纳条件是探讨货币贬值改善贸易收支的规律,本文根据人民币实际有效汇率的特点,把它分解为美元有效汇率和人民币对美元汇率之积形式,在此基础之上,本文重新考察货币贬值改善贸易收支的条件,对传统的马歇尔-勒纳条件进行修正。从我们研究中可以看出美元实际有效汇率变化对马歇尔-勒纳条件修正的重要作用,这包括美元有效汇率对人民币汇率弹性和人民币在美元有效汇率中的权重的两种影响。另一方面,即使人民币实际有效汇率贬值存在“J”曲线效应,人民币对美元实际汇率贬值,“J”曲线是否存在还要依赖一定的条件。本文实证研究结果显示出口（或进口）与人民币对美元实际汇率、美元实际有效汇率指数和外国收入（或国内收入）之间存在着显著的协整关系,美元实际有效汇率和人民币对美元实际汇率也存在显著的协整关系。从弹性的变化来看,修正的马歇尔-勒纳条件成立,同时人民币对美元实际汇率贬值有利于改善贸易收支,美元实际有效汇率贬值会恶化中国贸易收支。而对“J”曲线效应的实证研究显示无论是人民币实际有效汇率,还是人民币对美元实际汇率贬值和美元实际有效汇率贬值,我国“J”曲线效应均不显著。     

World trade forecasts upgraded,but headwinds from Asia

• ? Most leading indicators of world trade point to growth remaining robust in the next few months, but there are some headwinds, especially from Asia. Overall, we expect trade growth to decelerate this year, yet the outlook has improved since August. We see world trade rising by 6.1% in 2017 and by 4.8% this year, up from our previous forecasts of 5.7% and 3.8%, respectively .
• ? The latest trade volume data for the major economies support our forecasts, as does our survey‐based export indicator, which leads trade by around three months. This indicator and the main measure of global freight volumes are consistent with world trade continuing to grow by around 6% y/y in the near term.
• ? World trade growth is likely to be supported by emerging markets (EMs), which made a large contribution to the trade recovery last year. Another factor that may be supportive – especially for EMs – is the slippage in the US dollar last year, as there is some evidence of a negative correlation between dollar strength and world trade.
• ? The recovery of demand in the Eurozone and expected fiscal stimulus in the US add to the positive constellation of factors supporting world trade growth. Business sentiment indicators remain positive and imply upside risks to our forecasts. Yet it is not obvious that they have a strong leading relationship with trade – and the statistical relationship has become weaker since 2007–2009. This reinforces our view that there has been a structural change in the relationship between world trade and world GDP.
• ? The main near‐term downside risks to world trade come from Asia. Freight indicators for Shanghai and Hong Kong have slowed markedly, as have semiconductor billings. Although Chinese activity indicators have also moderated, China's trade volume growth remains surprisingly strong.

     

World economy

The strengthening dollar is now becoming a significant factor for global growth and our forecasts. The tradeweighted dollar is up over 5% since the start of the year and over 15% on a year ago.…     

Japan

So far this year the yen has risen by around 10% to ¥108 to the US dollar. On 8 April Finance Minister Aso said that Japan was ready to take “necessary steps to protect the economy from currency volatility”, although currency intervention was not explicitly mentioned. The hosting by Japan of a G7 summit in late May is a political obstacle to currency intervention before then.     

人民币汇率变动研究——基于人民币对美元和非美元货币汇率的分析

目前随着美元币值的变化,人民币对美元小幅贬值或升值,但人民币对非美元货币的贬值或升值则往往相反,这种变化使得我们对人民币币值的变化难以把握.本文研究人民币对美元和非美元汇率变动,并在此基础上研究人民币有效汇率指数变化;根据人民币有效汇率指数,构建人民币核心汇率指数并分析其变动及意义.本文认为,人民币汇率目标主要侧重于人民币对美元汇率,而人民币对非美元货币汇率波动有更大的弹性,因此,如果央行以人民币有效汇率为目标,则能够确定每天人民币对美元汇率的中间价,真正建立人民币参考一篮子货币的汇率目标.     

World Economic Prospects

Overview: Global stimulus reinforced by ECB QE

• The ECB announced a QE programme in January involving buying some €60 billion of assets per month, of which around €40 billion are likely to be government bonds.
• As a result, despite the end of QE in the US, major central banks' ‘non‐standard’ policy support (asset purchases plus loans to banks) is set to be higher in 2015–16 than last year, supporting world growth.
• Moreover, major central banks' purchases of government bonds will by 2016 be close to the net issuance of bonds by governments – indirectly, full ‘monetisation’ of fiscal deficits is arriving.
• This prospect is likely to have been partly behind the further compression of bond yields this year, which remarkably has seen German 10‐year yields trade below those of Japan in recent weeks. And largescale bond purchases are likely to prevent any sharp uptick in yields over the next year at least.
• Other policy settings are also becoming more positive for global growth. We estimate that fiscal policy will be broadly neutral in the US and Eurozone this year – and also in Japan after the postponement of the second consumption tax rise. On top of this, the collapse in oil prices since mid‐2014 can be seen as equivalent to a substantial ‘tax cut’ for consumers in the major economies.
• Meanwhile, a stronger dollar will restrain US exports modestly, but the flipside will be an improved export outlook for the likes of Japan and the Eurozone. We now expect the euro to decline to near‐parity with the dollar by end‐2015 (from 1.13 now) while the yen/$ rate reaches 127 (from 119).
• The main drag to global growth continues to be the sluggish performance of the main emerging markets. Brazil is set to stagnate again this year while Chinese growth still seems to be slowing and there are serious problems in some oil exporters – both Russia and Venezuela are forecast to see GDP fall 6%. But there are some brighter spots – including an improved picture in India.