An evaluation of contemporary China’s land use policy – The Link Policy: A case study from Ezhou,Hubei Province

Economic reform in China has resulted in rapid urbanisation over the past three decades, changing the urban and rural landscape dramatically. A large amount of farmland was developed, leading to conflict between construction demand and farmland protection. In response, the “Link Policy” was proposed in 2005 that seeks to concurrently preserve farmland while providing for urban expansion through land exchange. The effectiveness of the Link Policy has not been systematically investigated. The purpose of this study is to analyse and evaluate outcomes of the Link Policy objectives from both a participant and investigator’s interpretive perspective. Ezhou, the first experimental city to implement the Link Policy in Hubei Province in central China, was selected as a case study area. Eight different communities in Ezhou were visited and 160 semi-structured interviews were conducted with resettled rural residents in March 2016. A combination of interviews and investigator field observations were used to evaluate the Link Policy objectives. The results show that participants recognize and support improving rural living conditions and coordinating urban-rural development, but the Link Policy failed to achieve the objectives of preserving farmland, protecting farmers’ land use rights and interests, and facilitating agricultural production. Participants perceived concentrated resettlement communities to be more efficient in land use compared to more expansive rural settlements, but vacant apartments for commercial use in resettlement areas account for a large proportion of land suggesting inefficiency in the land exchanges. We suggest policy changes to achieve more successful implementation of the Link Policy.     

What is the policy improvement of China’s land consolidation? Evidence from completed land consolidation projects in Shaanxi Province

Land consolidation plays an important role in increasing cultivated land, improving cultivated land quality and the ecological environment, and promoting the coordinated development of urban and rural areas. However, under the conditions of three decades of land consolidation being conducted and changing urban–rural human–land relationship, the areas of improvement in the land consolidation policy of China must be studied. This article analyzes the implementation and distribution characteristics of the land consolidation project completed in Shaanxi Province in 2018. Results show that land consolidation projects in Shaanxi are mainly land reclamation projects, cropland consolidation projects, and high-standard cropland consolidation projects. The increased cultivated land is mainly from land reclamation projects and cropland consolidation projects. The land consolidation projects in Aeolian Plateau Area, Loess Plateau Area, and Da Ba Mountain Area are mainly land reclamation projects. The land reclamation projects in Guan Zhong Plain Area and Qing Ling Mountain Area account for a large proportion. The spatial distribution of rural settlement consolidation projects, and rural settlement consolidation and land reclamation projects are mainly located in Guan Zhong Plain Area and distributed in the boundary area of Guan Zhong Plain Area and Loess Plateau Area. According to the characteristics of land consolidation projects and the changes of urban–rural human–land relationship, China should be prudent in or stop advancing land reclamation to increase cultivated land; cropland consolidation and high-standard cropland construction are vital ways to achieve China’s food security; and rural settlement consolidation should be carefully conducted in remote areas under the background of urbanization.     

How government-led land consolidation efforts achieve grain production stability? An empirical analysis in Hubei Province,China

China has been conducting massive land consolidation (LC) projects since the late 1990s to ensure national food security which has been one of the common issues in the world. How the implementation of LC projects affects grain production stability is a question should be answered. Basing on an empirical analysis at the county level in Hubei Province, China, this paper separates the trend component and the fluctuation component from a time series of grain production over 1991-2016 using the H-P filtering method. Then we estimate the impacts of LC projects and climate change on the trend and fluctuation rate of grain production for the entire Hubei Province. Moreover, the effects on the production of different major crops for the central, eastern, southwestern, northwestern and northern areas are also examined, respectively. The results show that: (1) the production trends for five subareas and the whole area all have followed a trajectory of “increase-decrease-increase” from 1991 to 2016. The magnitude of fluctuation rate was large but became smaller in recent years. (2) The contribution of LC to the long-term trends of grain production for the entire samples in Hubei Province mainly benefits from the growth in the cultivated land area through LC; more LC investment and newly-added arable land area promote the sudden increase in grain production above the long-term trends, while the impacts of LC area are negative. (3) The impacts of LC on the major crop production vary across areas. LC exerts significant impacts on the production of major crops in the central and eastern Hubei, and this effect persists to the following year. Similarly, this influence also exists in the southwestern and northern area, while becomes insignificant in the following year. No significant effect of LC variables is found in the northwestern area. These findings may provide reference for the government to address LC inefficiency and food security problems, and an effective and innovative mechanism combining the agricultural production, land consolidation and meteorological factors needs to be established to ensure food security and long-term and stable agricultural production. In addition, the regional difference in natural conditions and LC orientations should also be considered.     

Changes in coastal city ecosystem service values based on land use—A case study of Yingkou,China

The valuation of ecosystem services is intended to facilitate the rational and sustainable utilization of natural resources. However, calculating the values of natural resources is complex, and research is underway in this regard. The change of land use types can reflect the changes in the area of each ecosystem; therefore, in this study, land use changes in Yingkou (located in the south of Liaoning Province and an important port city) over a 10-year period (2004–2014) are assessed using a geographic information systems platform and the 2004, 2009 and 2014 Thematic Mapper remotely sensed images of the area. The Costanza calculation method and classification system are used to estimate changes in the total values of ecosystem services in the Yingkou area from 2004 to 2014 and to investigate the causes of these changes. The “change tendency” of particular ecological communities is calculated using the Variable coefficient, the Gini coefficient, and the Theil index. The results reveal the following: (i) The total value of ecosystem services in the Yingkou area decreased drastically (i.e., from $2567.60 million to $2127.26 million, representing a 17.2% decline) between 2004 and 2014. (ii) Aquatic ecosystem services are valued greater than terrestrial services. In Yingkou, a decline in the value of aquatic ecosystem services accounts for 88.6% of the total decrease in ecosystem service value. (iii) Land reclamation in the Yingkou urban area emerges as the primary factor influencing ecosystem service values for the various ecological communities in the region. The ecosystem service value of each ecological community is different, and the differences between the contributions made by the various communities to the total ecosystem services value are increasing over time. (iv) The decline in ecosystem service values in Yingkou is linked to urban development. Following widespread land reclamation, an increase in land area intended for urban construction is associated with a decrease in water area.     

Farmers’ land use decision-making in the context of changing land and conservation policies: A case study of Doi Mae Salong in Chiang Rai Province,Northern Thailand

In Thailand, land use planning and policy decision-making were—and to some extent still are—organized in a hierarchical and disjointed fashion. This is also true for the utilization of public lands, including forest reserves in the northern uplands that are often settled by ethnic minorities. There are, however, instances of change in land policies and regulations and in the way decisions and plans are made. Doi Mae Salong (DMS) in Northern Thailand, where there is a trend towards land use for conservation purposes, is a case in point. This paper aims to explore decision-making by farmers in DMS in the context of changing land regulations and policies from the 1950s to the present. The Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework, together with a historical perspective and with narratives on land management through time, were applied by using in-depth interviews of key informants and group farmers’ discussions as tools. The time period under investigation was divided into three periods of change: The first period, before the year 1960, was an era of security concern. In contrast, the second period, from 1961 to 1996, was an era of emerging conservation priorities. Finally, the third period, from 1997 to the present, is an era of lessons learned from the conservation era. Land use decision outcomes reveal that the decision-making processes of farmers are influenced both by the hierarchical decisions of higher authorities and by horizontal linkages among multiple stakeholders. However, while farmers participate readily in forest conservation activities, they do not play an active role in the process of changing policies.     

Stakeholders’ perception of defragmentation of new plots in a land consolidation project: Given the surprisingly different Slovak and Czech approaches

There is a fundamental difference in the way of merging the fragmented plots of one owner within a land consolidation (LC) in Slovakia (the Slovak Republic, SK) and the Czech Republic (CZ). All the scattered shares of a single owner in SK are merged into a minimum amount of new plots in the proportion of 1/1; the shares of one owner in CZ are merged only to a group of owners who are on the same ownership title.Through an LC project a Slovak owner automatically acquires sole ownership and the Czech one remains in an unchanged ownership in equal shares. Authors wondered what general public and the owners themselves in particular think of these two ways of merging. A simple online questionnaire for all surveyed groups (representatives of owners, public administration officials, LC designers/experts) for a virtual model territory was created. The results based on the questionnaire (563 responses, 10–25% estimated rate of return, were evaluated at the time of preparing the contribution) show that there is a clear preference (90–98%, estimated margin of error 5–16%) for the exclusive ownership. The (surprising) differences in merging as well as subsequent findings provoked an informed debate about the causes which is still pending.     

How adjustments in land use patterns contribute to drought risk adaptation in a changing climate—A case study in China

In the context of climate change, adaptation to climatic extremes, such as drought, has attracted worldwide attention, yet many practical adaptation strategies need to be examined at the local level. Based on a case study of the village of Beidian, located in a drought-prone region in northern China, this study demonstrates that when faced with multiple pressures of regional climate change, drought risk and rural poverty, reasonable adjustments in land use patterns can serve as an effective adaptation strategy in the agricultural sector. We used household questionnaires, in-depth interviews with village managers, and land use surveys at the farming plot level to quantify the relationship between land use change and drought mitigation effects. Our findings indicate that in the past decade, the farming practices in Beidian have transformed from a complete reliance on the winter wheat–summer corn rotation to a new diversified mode of apple as the main crop and corn and coarse cereals as the subsidiary crops. The current farming mode is proven to possess a stronger adaptive capacity to drought due to its higher water-saving efficiency and economic benefit, which facilitates rural poverty reduction and socio-economic development. This study presents a feasible approach to address adaptation strategies at the local level, which provides policymakers with information on how to best support farm-level adaptation and to reduce farmers’ vulnerability to climatic extremes within the broader context of climate change.     

Evaluating the lifestyle impact of China’s rural housing land consolidation with locational big data: A study of Chengdu

Housing land consolidation and relocation has been widely implemented in rural China as a policy tool to reduce the area of built-up land, reclaim agricultural land, and redistribute the use of land. Despite of the large scale of implementation, the impact of this policy on the daily life of rural people is not sufficiently evaluated. Our work aims to fill in this gap by examining the daily activity pattern of rural residents in consolidated and unconsolidated villages through mobile phone locational data, using the Chengdu city-region as the case. One week’s locational data from all phone users of China Unicom was used. We found that housing land consolidation do not necessarily harm the daily life of rural residents, which has been a main concern of many research.     

Is spatial planning a collaborative learning process? A case study from a rural–urban gradient in Sweden

International and national policies stress the importance of spatial planning for the long-term sustainability of regions. This paper identifies the extent to which the spatial planning in a Swedish region can be characterised as a collaborative learning process. By combining qualitative interviews and systems thinking methods we analysed the main attributes of public-led spatial (i.e. comprehensive) planning in nine municipalities representing a steep urban–rural gradient in the Bergslagen region of Central Sweden. We show that the attributes of strategic spatial planning needed for collaborative learning were absent or undeveloped. All studied municipalities experienced challenges in coordinating complex issues regarding long-term planning to steer territorial development and help to solve conflicts among competing interests. Stakeholder participation was identified as a basic condition for social learning in planning. Together with stakeholders we identified the causal structure behind stakeholder participation in municipal planning processes, including main drivers and feedback loops. We conclude that there is a need for arenas allowing and promoting stakeholder activity, participation and inclusion that combines both bottom-up and top-down approaches, and where evidence-based collaborative learning can occur.     

Farmers’ perception of effective drought policy implementation: A case study of 2009–2010 drought in Yunnan province,China

Using a qualitative social research method at the local administrative level, this paper provides insight into the policy process in China and farmers’ perceptions of the effectiveness of policies implemented to deal with drought. Two villages in rural South-West Yunnan were purposefully selected for the study. The research started with the general assumption that China has a strong top-down hierarchal approach to policy processes and that funding dispersal is prioritised by the central government. However, the study found that funding proposals are prioritised for selection in a bottom-up, participatory manner from the local level. The study also found that farmers’ perceptions of the effectiveness of policy implementation were directly related to their past experience. Among the nine indicators used to measure the effectiveness of policy implementation at the local level, the farmers in the study area perceived access to roads as highly effective; water use efficiency projects, market demand, human mobility for jobs, and government funds as moderately effective; drought knowledge, community participation in planning, and governance structures as least effective; and the role of leadership as not effective. The study found that farmers’ adaptation at the local level is oriented towards short-term market rewards and income diversification. Farmers’ local-level adaptation is guided by government priorities and driven by their perception of tangible benefits. To ensure the effectiveness of policy implementation, long-term adaptation strategies, such as awareness raising, capacity building, watershed management, and source conservation need to be strengthened at the local level.     

Does organic farming (OF) work in favour of protecting the natural environment? A case study from Poland

Organic farming (OF) is a management system that is closely linked with the quality of the natural environment since it should, besides producing organic food, constitutes a protective factor for all components of that natural environment. Therefore, the objective of this paper was to answer the following question: Does organic farming (OF) protect the natural environment? In order to achieve this goal it was essential to determine what kinds of natural and non-environmental factors have the largest influence on the development of OF in Poland, and to assess the significance of these factors in the spatial diversification of the regional density of organic farms. The analysis was carried out on the basis of data from 2012 comprising 2074 communes, including both rural communes (1563) and urban-rural ones (511). The research results indicated the weaknesses of the organic farming policy (OFP) with respect to the functioning of OF in Poland in the years 2007–2013. The results also show that the development of OF in Poland mainly depends on the system of financial support, i.e. one that either encourages farmers to change the manner of production to a more environmentally friendly one, or one that has an impact on their decision to resign from production using ecological methods. Moreover, as our research has proved, OF is not always developed in places where it should be a priority because of the suitable conditions of the natural environment.     

Transfer of development rights,farmland preservation,and economic growth: a case study of Chongqing’s land quotas trading program

The dilemma between preserving farmland and urbanization has attracted many policymakers’ attention. One sound solution that has been practiced in several developed countries is the “transfer of development rights” (TDR). This study examines a specific TDR program in China—the Chongqing Land Quotas Trading program. We use a synthetic control method on the 2001–2014 statistics of 57 prefectures to quantitatively assess the program’s effect on farmland preservation and economic growth. A mixed method, including both satellite image analysis and qualitative interviews, was also used to obtain some intuitive evidence to understand the mechanism of this program. We find that the Chongqing TDR program has substantially reduced the loss of farmland and played a significant role in stimulating economic growth. We argue that the use of TDR might effectively address the farmland preservation and urbanization dilemma in China.     

Comparing the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban expansion in Guangzhou and Shenzhen from 1975 to 2015: A case study of pioneer cities in China’s rapid urbanization

The distinct urbanization process of China has attracted worldwide attention because of its impressive speed, massive scale, and policy intervention. However, the interrelationship between urban expansion and government policies is still not well understood. The Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration of China is the first national pioneering urbanization area since the implementation of the policy “Reform and Opening-up” in the late 1970s. Here we compared the spatial and temporal patterns of urbanization in two leading cities of the Pearl River Delta (i.e., Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the provincial capital and the first Special Economic Zone of China, respectively) from 1975 to 2015, using Landsat data integrated with urban growth and landscape metrics analysis, and examined possible footprints of major economic and urbanization policies. Our results illustrated that urban land areas in both Guangzhou and Shenzhen have experienced magnificent annual growth rates at 8.1% and 11%, respectively between 1975 and 2015. On average, Shenzhen witnessed substantially higher urban growth rate than Guangzhou during the past four decades, particularly in the initial period (1978–1990) when the Reform and Opening-up policy was launched and Shenzhen was designated as the first Special Economic Zone in China in the late 1970s. However, the speed of urban expansion in Shenzhen became considerably lower than Guangzhou from 2005 to 2015, subject to physical conditions and a series of urban land use policies. Both cities showed a generally similar dynamics of urban growth forms with leapfrogging as the predominant type of urban growth at first and then edge-expansion while the contribution of infilling in Shenzhen was higher than that in Guangzhou, especially since 2005. The urbanization processes characterized by landscape and urban growth metrics revealed that a diffusion-coalescence-diffusion-coalescence process was identified for Guangzhou, while Shenzhen was generally consistent with the diffusion-coalescence urban growth hypothesis.     

Water in the city: Green open spaces,land use planning and flood management – An Australian case study

With increasing worldwide recognition of the influence of urban development on the hydrological functions of water, there is growing pressure for urban planning to play a greater role in water resources management. Planning for green open spaces in particular can play an important role, as they support important ecosystem services, including those that assist in flood management. It has been argued that interconnected and strategically planned networks of green open spaces should be planned for early in land use planning and design processes, with consideration of water-related ecosystem values and landscape functions in concert with land development, growth management and physical infrastructure planning. Although there is growing recognition of the importance of green open space planning for water sensitive cities and supportive planning measures, there are few analyses of the actual inclusion of this recognition in plans and strategies, or the presence of related actions and planning mechanisms. This paper addresses this gap by comparatively analysing the approaches taken to regional green open space planning in three Australian capital city-regions. Findings indicate the acknowledgement of relationships between flood regulation and green open space planning and various associated planning mechanisms. However, there is limited explicit integration of flood management and green open spaces planning, and significant on-ground barriers to enabling this integration to occur given the legacy of past planning decisions and the lack of information to support implementation. The paper concludes with recommendations for further research to assist planning for green open spaces as an ally to ecosystem services relating to flood management.     

Reconstructing production efficiency,land use and trade for livestock systems in historical perspective. The case of France, 1961–2010

This paper provides an original accounting of changes in livestock production efficiency per livestock category in historical perspective and connects livestock consumption with land requirements and virtual land trade. We use France as a demonstration study and account for productivity changes in terms of energy. Feed rations composition are reconstructed per livestock production and feed crop group over time to account for changes in land use in relation to dietary changes. Land requirements for consumption in France dropped by 28% over the study period besides an increase by 35% of the human population and by 53% of the livestock consumption. The two-fold increase in agricultural productivity is due, for half, to energy conversion efficiency improvements and for half to agricultural yields. Overall, the livestock energy conversion efficiency increased by 45% from 1961 to 2010, poultry gained 84%, pork 17%, sheep&goat 67% and cattle 27%. The feed share of oilcrops and cereals in animal rations doubled against a drop by 35% of feed from pastures. Virtual land imports for oilcrops in relation to livestock consumption in France today amount to 0.9 million ha against a maximum of 1.9 million ha in 1979. Besides its dependence on oilcrops imports, the French livestock sector displays net virtual land exports ranging from about 2.5–5.3 million ha per year over the study period. Gross virtual land trade is today five times higher than the net virtual trade. The difference highlights the share of circular product loops in increasingly integrated agricultural markets at the international scale.     

Transdisciplinary landscape planning: Does the public have aspirations? Experiences from a case study in Ghent (Flanders,Belgium)

Since the end of the last century, the focus in landscape policy is shifting from traditional top-down perspectives into a bottom-up and integrated approach involving participation of local stakeholders. Keywords in the European Landscape Convention (ELC) include participation and awareness-raising: the public should be involved and their aspirations towards landscape should be assessed. This evolution in policy went with a new paradigm in landscape research: transdisciplinarity. Despite this evolution, literature indicates the necessity of a more general use of methods for public participation in landscape planning to meet the objectives of the Convention. The present paper explores ways to involve ‘the local people’ and to grasp their aspirations with regard to the landscape features of their surroundings. Point of departure is a questionnaire combining questions on landscape preference, environmental worldview and behaviour in the landscape. The questionnaire was distributed in a spatially stratified sample amongst inhabitants of the city of Ghent. The survey was set up without any connection to a concrete operational project that could convince respondents to participate. The response rate was relatively large despite a rather demanding questionnaire. More isolated target groups such as people with lower income, lower education level, and retired people were included, but foreigners, despite being a substantial part of the urban population, did not respond. The respondents appeared to be rather homogeneous as regards environmental worldview and aspirations in the landscape. It appeared that environment and landscape were not clearly distinguished between by the respondents. These results yield some suggestions for transdisciplinary landscape policy. A careful design of the sampling can enhance number and diversity of the respondents. Yet, it is equally important to develop a common language to communicate about landscape so that the question items can be clearly phrased and understood. Aspirations towards landscape should be defined more unambiguously so that they can be assessed alike. Awareness-raising for landscape may help to increase the number of local people that feel addressed when talking about landscape. When public support for landscape policy and management is taken seriously, more factors than only landscape should be taken into consideration.     

Farmers’ perception of their decision-making in relation to policy schemes: A comparison of case studies from Switzerland and the United States

Farmers are decision-makers in a complex system of cause and effect. They decide with respect to their own attitude and beliefs, according to their farm structure and they take into account programs and regulations of the overarching policy scheme. In this paper we used mail surveys with identical questions to establish a cross-national comparison of two case study areas. The questionnaire investigates farmer's perspectives on what influences their own decision-making as well as their perception of the socio-ecological environment to relate these findings to the respective policy schemes in the case study areas. The two case studies are located in Southern Illinois, United States and in central Switzerland. The analysis shows that full-time farmers of the Southern Illinois case study area rate constraining factors such as financial aspects higher than Southern Illinois part-time farmers and farmers from the central Switzerland case study area. Furthermore, it is apparent that Swiss case study-farmers rate aspects of their land use responsibility and the Illinois case study-farmers rate ecological aspects higher. The empirical findings can be qualitatively explained through analysis of agricultural policy schemes.     

Strategic public land use assessment and planning in Victoria,Australia: Four decades of trailblazing but where to from here?

While various attempts have been made to establish strategic environmental assessment (SEA) processes and institutions in various jurisdictions within Australia, the success of these often short lived attempts at institutional approaches for managing public land use conflict has been patchy. The experience in the State of Victoria has been somewhat different, with public land use assessment and planning having been informed by a series of independent statutory bodies since 1970 (the Land Conservation Council, Environment Conservation Council, and Victorian Environmental Assessment Council). These SEA bodies have played a major role in mediating environmental conflict over public land use, and have significantly contributed to the increased size and coverage of Victoria's protected area system. However, while there has always been a statutory body in operation, the roles and responsibilities of these bodies have been subject to significant legislative change, with existing bodies replaced by new bodies in 1997 and 2001. Justifications for these reforms included changing circumstances and new understandings about environmental management, as well as changing views about public administration. As a way of contributing to enhancing the design of institutions and processes for strategic environmental assessment, this paper provides an assessment of Victoria's approach and discusses possible future directions.     

An actor-oriented approach to understanding dairy farming in a liberalised regime: A case study of Ireland’s New Entrants’ Scheme

With the abolition of dairy quotas in 2015 major change in Europe’s dairy industry is anticipated at the level of individual farms, with consequences for how land is utilised and managed. Critical questions in this context are how farmers react to the myriad challenges coming forth from changed policy circumstances and, more specifically, the factors that influence their responses to these challenges at farm level. As part of a broader multi-disciplinary research project, this paper presents a narrative analysis of dairy farmers participating in Ireland’s New Entrants’ Scheme, an initiative that has facilitated the establishment of over two hundred new dairy farms. Salient with an increasing literature on Agriculture Knowledge and Innovation Systems (AKISs) within agriculture, the paper focuses specifically on the actors who influence the decisions of the New Entrants (NEs) at this critical juncture in the transformation of dairy policy. Led by Norman Long’s actor-oriented approach, we examine social interfaces involving NEs and different categories of actors. We found that interfaces conditioned by coercive behaviour on the part of actors had a narrow scope of influence on farmers’ decisions compared to interfaces characterised by relatively equal power relations. The latter interfaces had the capacity to be strongly influential on broad habitual production and management decisions. Interfaces involving family members, however, had ultimate influence on major strategic decision-making, including decisions to establish new enterprises. Overall, our analysis suggests that NEs are empowered decision-makers in their social interfaces with other AKIS actors and our biographical approach to the analysis indicates that quota deregulation itself has not led to radical changes in who influences NEs’ decision-making.     

A systems approach to forecast agricultural land transformation and soil environmental risk from economic,policy, and cultural scenarios in the north central United States (2012–2062)

Grassland conversion to row-crop production in the north central United States has been a growing threat to socio-economic and environmental sustainability for producers, conservationists, and policy-makers alike. We used a system dynamics model of the region to forecast agriculturally driven land transformation through mid-twenty-first century. The base-case scenario projection showed that farmland area continued to increase, from under 200,000?km² to over 230,000?km². Unmitigated, the soil environmental risk (SER) of such changes reached conservative estimates of Dust Bowl-era externalities. Systems analyses show that reducing livestock production costs, doubling conservation compliance requirements, and livestock–cropping integration had the largest impact on grassland conservation and mitigating SER. The largest SER effects came from eliminating conservation incentives or raising cultivation incentives, despite improvements in reduced tillage and enhanced agronomy. Several system archetypes were identified within the policy scenarios: ‘fixes that backfire’ and ‘success-to-the-successful’. For scenarios creating favourable impacts, time delays caused some behaviours to worsen before positive gains were realized. If implemented, patience and persistence to ensure that these scenarios reach their full potential will be necessary. Our scenarios provide quantitative forecasts around measures for sustainable intensification. These projections can aid regional stakeholders in enhancing discussions currently taking place about sustainable agriculture in the region.