Africa’s outbound tourism: An Almost Ideal Demand System perspective

While African outbound tourism represents 3% of international tourism, the continent is experiencing high economic growth rates, contributing to a fast-growing middle-class and a large potential market for international travel. This article analyses African outbound travel to all other continents from an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) perspective. Both static and dynamic AIDS are estimated and the resulting elasticities indicate that: (i) African tourism to all continents is a normal good, although Africa and Oceania can be considered luxury destinations; (ii) Asia and North America are the most price elastic destinations, and price increases in these continents will lead to substitution to Europe and Africa; (iii) there is persistence in African arrivals to North and South America.     

A panel data-based analysis of factors influencing market demand for Chinese outbound tourism

This paper presents data on the top 50 outbound destinations for Chinese tourists from 2002 to 2013. The total number of Chinese tourists traveling to these 50 destinations accounts for 95.38% of outbound travelers from China. We built a dynamic panel data model to measure factors that influence market demand for Chinese outbound tourism. The results show that economic variables such as income, tourism prices, and exchange rates have a significant influence on outbound tourism volume. The effect of bilateral goods trade and leisure time significantly differ between the full sample and the two subsamples, whereas political stability of the destinations and special incidents in China have no significant impact on demand for outbound tourism. Based on these findings, this study proposes strategies to strengthen the management of China’s outbound tourism market.     

基于区块链技术的旅游地低碳发展模式构建

旅游地是推进旅游业低碳化发展的重要实践主体,但长期面临旅游企业、旅游者低碳生产与消费内在动力不足,低碳发展长效落实机制缺乏,监督管理成本过高等问题。提升旅游地低碳发展系统协同效率,推动低碳发展措施高效实施是实现旅游业高质量发展的迫切议题。本研究以区块链技术为支撑,以低碳信息共享为基础,基于供需协同、低碳优先、共同参与、可持续性、系统性5项原则,尝试构建以旅游企业、旅游者、第三方评估机构、政府部门、社区居民五大利益相关者为主体,以低碳信息共享、低碳发展激励、低碳发展规制、低碳发展补偿4项区块链平台运行机制为支持的旅游地低碳发展模式,通过正向激励机制、反向规制机制、补偿机制推动低碳"信息互联网"向"价值互联网"转变,为旅游地低碳发展提供技术支撑。同时,本研究意图突破传统低碳旅游研究局限,拓展可持续旅游分析视角。     

中国省域森林公园技术效率测算与分析

文章借助数据包络分析方法（DEA）,利用2003～2008年的数据,对我国森林公园发展的效率进行研究,为我国森林公园旅游资源的优化配置和运行效率的提高提供参考依据,并测算了31个省区的技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率,比较了它们之间的差异。结果显示,从全国来看,森林公园的技术效率较高;从个体来看,不同省区森林公园的技术效率存在较大的差异,上海、浙江、广西、广东等省区的技术效率较高;宁夏、内蒙古、安徽等省区的技术效率较低。通过优化投入规模与结构、人员培训等措施能够在一定程度上提高我国森林公园整体的技术效率。     

Evaluation of the Economic Effectiveness of Public Tourism Coupons in China in 2009 – A Corrected DEA Approach

Initiation of tourism coupon programs in various destinations in China in 2009 was an innovative policy response to the general nationwide economic downturn brought about by the world financial crisis. Given the size of the Chinese tourism market and the unique role of authorities in China's tourism development, studies on tourism coupons have profound theoretical and practical implications. This paper utilized a Data Envelopment Analysis approach to evaluate comprehensively the economic effectiveness of tourism coupons in eight representative Chinese destinations. In particular, correction coefficients were incorporated to adjust relevant output indicators to a consistent and comparable level. The results showed that the integrated efficiencies of the tourism coupons in all examined destinations had been quite high, thereby validating the policy success of the tourism coupon programs. Practical suggestions are also provided on the technical and operational aspects of the tourism coupon programs.     

Simulating emerging coastal tourism vulnerabilities: an agent-based modelling approach

Coastal tourism destinations face a range of climate-related changes. Prevailing challenges include understanding emerging changes and future uncertainties. A dynamic vulnerability approach is a promising way to analyse emerging socio-ecological vulnerabilities. This research presents an innovative coupling of the human-environment system in the agent-based model Coasting, and is applied to Curaçao's coastal tourism. We observe how operator numbers and environmental attractiveness, proxies for socio-ecological vulnerabilities, change over time. Global sensitivity analysis highlights the main interacting factors behind socio-ecological vulnerabilities. Scenario discovery explores the main drivers contributing to undesirable vulnerabilities. The model's findings provide key insights on which factors tourism destinations need to focus on to prevent socio-ecological vulnerabilities.     

Chinese National Scenic Areas’ Tourism Efficiency: Multi-scale Fluctuation,Prediction and Optimization

The tourism efficiency in scenic areas is influenced by multi-factor joined effects, presenting multi-scale fluctuation characteristics in temporal terms and regional differences in spatial terms. This paper, by adopting the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method and Bootstrap-DEA model, calculates their tourism and decomposition efficiency. Then, based on methods of empirical mode decomposition, wavelet decomposition and Morlet wavelet multi-scale decomposition, the paper reveals the fluctuation characteristics, process and its spatial differentiation of tourism efficiency change in scenic areas from the perspective of the time–frequency domain, quantitatively investigating the important factors influencing its dynamic change, so as to summarize and refine the dynamic evolution models of tourism efficiency. Lastly, the mean generating function method is applied to conduct statistical prediction for scenic areas’ tourism efficiency in different regions, combined with the principal component method for regional integration, which provides an effective way for studying temporal–spatial differentiation characteristics of tourism efficiency change in scenic areas.     

The creation and use of scorecards in tourism planning: A Spanish example

This paper proposes a preliminary model of a balanced scorecard for tourism destinations, with a specific emphasis on sustainable development. We begin with a review of the perspectives and critical performance variables for the traditional balanced scorecard. We then present empirical work based upon quantitative analysis techniques. A survey was completed by 1531 Spanish municipalities that are oriented towards tourism and have demonstrated interest in management issues. Based on the constructs emerging from this analysis, we then show how the balanced scorecard can be modified to support the strategic planning of tourism destinations. We conclude by discussing the advantages for long-term strategic planning and sustainable tourism management.     

游客感知与政府宣传:资源相似型旅游目的地形象维度对比研究——以云南西双版纳州和德宏州为例

旅游形象研究对资源相似型旅游目的地发展具有现实意义。在已有研究基础上将政府宣传形象纳入资源相似型旅游目的地旅游形象研究范畴,并选取资源禀赋高度近似的西双版纳州和德宏州为案例,实现游客感知与政府宣传旅游形象对比,选择两地游客网络游记与政府宣传网络文本为研究样本,运用内容分析法和IPA模型对两地游客感知与政府宣传旅游形象进行对比研究。研究结果表明:旅游吸引物形象维度在资源相似型目的地旅游形象中具有“非敏感性”;资源相似型旅游目的地游客感知与政府宣传旅游形象呈现出“差异—趋同”特征;资源相似型旅游目的地在“认同—错位”和“差异—趋同”效应的叠加作用下,具有各自的优势旅游形象维度。     

Examining the link between meetings,incentive, exhibitions,and conventions (MICE) and tourism demand using generalized methods of moments (GMM): the case of Singapore

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the impact of meetings, incentive, exhibitions, and conventions (MICE) on tourism demand in Singapore over a period of 10 years (2003–2012). Past studies have shown that MICE matters a great deal to host destinations but researchers have rarely conducted any empirical research to verify the significance of this sector to tourism demand. Our study intends to fill the gap by using Difference and System generalized methods of moments (GMM) estimators for dynamic panel models. Tourism demand is measured by tourist arrivals from the top 30 origins, and the influence of real income of the tourist generating country and real exchange rate is also examined. The GMM results show a significant positive relationship between tourism demand and MICE (with international meetings as proxies). Additionally, the findings reveal that tourism demand growth is significantly positive (negative) with respect to changes in income (relative prices). The coefficient of lagged tourist arrivals indicates a high level of habit persistence and revisiting.     

From vulnerability to transformation: a framework for assessing the vulnerability and resilience of tourism destinations

Tourism is a key driver of global socio-economic progress. However, its sustainability is at risk from multiple shocks and hazards that threaten livelihoods. Surprisingly little is known about the complex drivers of destination vulnerability, leading to the creation and application of ineffective resilience-building solutions. The paper presents the Destination Sustainability Framework (DSF) designed to assess destination vulnerability and resilience, and support successful resilience-building initiatives. Holistic in nature, the DSF comprises: (1) the shock(s) or stressor(s); (2) the interconnected dimensions of vulnerability – exposure, sensitivity, and system adaptiveness; (3) the dynamic feedback loops that express the multiple outcomes of actions taken (or not); (4) the contextualised root causes that shape destinations and their characteristics; (5) the various spatial scales; and (6) multiple timeframes within which social-ecological change occurs. This innovative framework is significant because it's the first framework to chart the complex manifestation of vulnerability and resilience in tourism destinations. Further, it brings tourism sustainability research in line with wider debates on achieving sustainability within the dynamic coupled human–environment system, doing so through the inclusion of insights from contemporary systems approaches, including chaos–complexity theory, vulnerability approaches, sustainability science, resilience thinking, along with the geographies of scale, place and time.     

强关系网络移动社交平台旅游分享行为研究——基于微信与QQ用户的资料分析

在移动社交媒体时代,旅游分享已成为当下旅游者的行为偏好,越来越多的旅游者选择微信、QQ这类强关系移动社交平台进行分享。国内学界对移动社交平台旅游分享行为的研究随之日增,但少有文章从理论上系统地揭示旅游分享行为的过程与动因。文章采用扎根理论研究方法,构建反映强关系网络移动社交平台的旅游分享动态过程理论模型。将旅游分享行为动态过程划分为分享前因、分享实现与分享结果3个阶段,总结每个阶段的行为特征、表现方式及阶段之间的演替规律,并探讨这类旅游分享行为的特点与动因。研究发现,在旅游分享动机上,强关系移动社交平台强调情感联结与互动,从而旅游者受到与个体相关动机的影响更为显著;分享内容上,平台的强关系特性与熟人社交促使旅游者尽量避免分享负面信息;分享结果上,强关系移动社交平台的旅游分享能调节旅游者行中、行后的体验水平,并形成兼具网络时空拓展性与熟人圈规模局限性的口碑传播。     

A social media analysis of travel preferences and attitudes,before and during Covid-19

Covid-19 created tremendous uncertainty in the tourism industry; in this study, we use social media data to explore differences in the preferences and attitudes of tourism consumers, both before and during the pandemic. We use natural language processing (NLP) techniques to analyze over one million Reddit posts on travel-related subreddits. We investigate the preference for city and nature-oriented tourism in selected destinations; the analysis demonstrates that nature tourism gained interest during Covid-19 in destinations with rich nature resources, whereas city tourism lost interest in destinations known for city tourism. We also classify Reddit authors into two categories: conservation and openness, according to a psychological theory of personal values, and show that this is predictive, with openness associated with positive travel sentiment and low risk awareness. This points to the potential for value-based segmentation of travel consumers based on theoretically-grounded NLP analysis of social media data.     

Air passenger duties as strategic tourism taxation

There has been a recent debate on the rationale and economic impacts of air passenger duties (APDs) linked to puzzling empirical results on this topic. We argue that an approach from strategic tourism taxation can improve our understanding of these results. APD set by origin countries of tourists can be viewed as an instrument for extracting economic rents that would otherwise be retained by tourism destinations. A theoretical model of strategic taxation between an origin and two destinations is developed to illustrate this idea. We find that countries' strategies may end up with winners and losers, or with all parties facing welfare losses. The game outcome depends on countries' market shares of profits and the substitutability between tourism services provided by different destinations. The findings suggest that the economic impacts of APDs recently evaluated in the literature might be biased because of the omission of other countries' potential tax reactions.     

Staying Afloat in the Tropics

SUMMARY

This study examines the extent to which the top ten Caribbean destinations market their tourism product using their national tourism organization Websites. A comparison of the national tourism organization Websites of the Caribbean Tourism Organization member countries will be conducted to determine the differences in technical aspects, user friendliness, site attractiveness, and marketing effectiveness using the modified Balanced Scorecard (BSC) for Website evaluation. The modified BSC results were next used to develop and test a model of Caribbean NTO Website visitor retention. Third-order confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to test the model. The model showed that the four aspects which comprise the modified BSC are important in the development of Caribbean NTO Websites.     

Tourism in Iceland: Persistence and seasonality

This paper analyses tourism in Iceland using fractional integration and taking into account the seasonality and the degree of persistence in the data. Using annual data, the unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected, implying permanency of shocks. However using, monthly data, a break is found at 2009m7 and the orders of integration are in the interval (0, 0,5) suggesting mean reversion. The conclusion is that exogenous shocks impacting inbound tourism do not persist and tend to disappear relatively fast. The key policy implications thereof are reported at the end of the paper, critiquing the classical response to perceived slumps in inbound tourism that include marketing and promotion instead of developing infrastructure in anticipation of resumed growth in inbound tourism.     

Tourism seasonality in cultural destinations: Empirical evidence from Sicily

Seasonality is one of the main phenomena affecting tourism. It depends on the characteristics of both tourism demand and tourism destinations in terms of location and services supplied. This paper focuses on a particular aspect of tourism supply: the cultural attractiveness of tourism destinations, and aims to evaluate the role of cultural tourism in tourism seasonality. We analyze the seasonality of tourist presence in different destinations in Sicily, selected according to their different degree of cultural attractiveness. The methodology adopted to measure seasonality is based on a regression analysis approach, using the Census-X12-Arima procedure. Results are discussed and some policy implications are derived.     

Tourism expenditures and crisis transmission: A general equilibrium GVAR analysis with network theory

According to the World Tourism Organization, during the last decades, tourism has become one of the largest and most dynamic economic industries in the world. In this work, we employ a Network General Equilibrium GVAR model to analyze the impact of tourism expenditures on GDP and our approach allows for the existence of dominant economies in the system. The model is estimated simultaneously as a system of equations for a large panel of world economies and the results show that the less developed economies are quite vulnerable to changes in the tourism expenditures of the dominant economies. Meanwhile, USA is found to be largely unaffected by shocks in the tourism expenditures of the less developed economies.     

Contested surf tourism resources in the Maldives

We analyse contests for control of a newly valuable tourism resource, namely surf breaks in the Maldives. Conflicts are shaped by: the resource, economics, culture, legislation, and politics. There are seven stakeholder groups: island resorts, resort-based surfing tourists, live-aboard charter boats, boat-based surfing tourists, local surf-related enterprises, independent travelling surfers using those enterprises, and local resident surfers. We identify a transition from exogenously to endogenously-controlled political processes and power. These are driven by tourism growth, and accelerated by specific trigger events related to political change, land tenure, and development projects. Tourism destinations have seldom been studied in the context of control over natural resources. The transition model constructed here applies across destinations, adventure activities, tourism subsectors, and other industries.     

Unemployment effects of economic crises on hotel and residential tourism destinations: The case of Spain

This paper analyses the effects of economic crises on tourism destinations from a city and regional point of view. The objective is to determine which kind of Spanish “Sun and Beach” tourism destinations, residential or hotel, has better weathered the most recent economic crisis in Spain, linked to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007/8. For this purpose, the authors have analysed the increases in the unemployment rates of a pool of 138 tourist destinations located on the Spanish Mediterranean coastline. The main finding of the paper is that during the crisis, residential destinations experienced a greater destruction of employment than hotel destinations. This result is consistent with previous literature that indicates a better economic performance of the hotel tourism development model.