Mapping time series into networks as a tool to assess the complex dynamics of tourism systems

This paper contributes to filling two gaps: i) the presence of a limited amount of studies focused on tourism demand turning points, ii) the prevalent recourse to linear models in demand analysis, disregarding the complex structure of tourism destinations. The paper uses the Horizontal Visibility Graph Algorithm, a technique able to transform a time series of observations into a network whose topology preserves some fundamental characteristics of the system examined. The empirical work focuses on Livigno, an Italian alpine destination.Findings reveal four turning points in the last 50 years; these changes are built around shifts in the origin market segments. The network's degree distribution confirms the complex structure of the destination and reconfirms the importance of non-linear models and methods for the analysis of tourism demand.     

Managing tourism products and destinations embedding public good components: A hedonic approach

Decision making by tourism firms' managers and public policymakers is complex for many reasons. One of them is that many tourism products embed a combination of multiple public (external to the decisions of individual firms, related to location and essentially non-rival) and private attributes. Since tourists get satisfaction from each of the components of the product variety bought, managers face the daunting task of putting together, promoting and pricing a bundle of heterogeneous components. This paper draws on hedonic pricing literature to obtain insights (beyond making correct pricing decisions) for tourism firms' managers and public policymakers when dealing with products and destinations embedding public good components. An application to coastal hotels in tourism destinations of Catalonia is presented.     

Performance of French destinations: Tourism attraction perspectives

In this paper, we assess and compare the performance of French tourism destinations, using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) two-stage procedure, where in the first stage the efficiency score are calculated, and then followed in the second stage by a bootstrapped truncated regression model. In the context of France such analysis takes an additional importance, especially as the country is expected to face a decrease in its tourism competitiveness. A discussion in terms of D-attraction and E-attraction is also proposed and policy recommendations are derived.     

Film tourism – Evolution,progress and prospects

Film tourism has emerged as a major growth sector for research in tourism and it is widely recognised as a driver of tourism development for many destinations. To date, there has been a relatively substantial literature on the subject, little of which has sought to synthesise and engage with the wider social science paradigm of culture, film and media research. The aim of this Progress Review is to critically evaluate film tourism as a subject of cross-disciplinary academic study, highlighting the major research themes, issues and contributing conceptual frameworks, critiquing existing and developing perspectives and addressing critical gaps in knowledge. This review is particularly timely as the literature on film tourism has not been synthesised from a cross-disciplinary perspective. Accordingly, this paper seeks to provide a road map of the exponential growth in social science literature associated with the cognate areas that study, or contribute to, film tourism.     

The creation and use of scorecards in tourism planning: A Spanish example

This paper proposes a preliminary model of a balanced scorecard for tourism destinations, with a specific emphasis on sustainable development. We begin with a review of the perspectives and critical performance variables for the traditional balanced scorecard. We then present empirical work based upon quantitative analysis techniques. A survey was completed by 1531 Spanish municipalities that are oriented towards tourism and have demonstrated interest in management issues. Based on the constructs emerging from this analysis, we then show how the balanced scorecard can be modified to support the strategic planning of tourism destinations. We conclude by discussing the advantages for long-term strategic planning and sustainable tourism management.     

Modeling Tourist Flows to Indonesia and Malaysia

Summary

The purpose of this study was to examine the major factors that influence the flow patterns of tourists from six important tourist-generating countries to Indonesia and Malaysia. The primary determinants included in the demand models were income, prices, and time trend. Two models that employed different indicators for the price variable were estimated; one with exchange rates in addition to relative prices, whereas the other included only an exchange rate adjusted-relative price variable. Annual time-series data covering the period 1980 to 1997 were used for estimation. The results generally indicated that the factors provide reasonably good explanations for the demand for Indonesian and Malaysian tourism. The measure of thejoint effect of the changes in exchange rates and relative prices also seems to be a better indicator for the price variable for both destination countries. The study has important marketing implications for the tourism industries in Indonesia and Malaysia.     

旅游地适应性循环模型修正及实证研究——以大别山区金寨县为例

适应性循环是社会-生态系统经历开发、保护、释放、更新的过程,可表征社会-生态系统发展趋势。文章基于旅游地恢复力、潜力以及连通度三要素,指出Holling和Tsao适应性循环模型的局限性,对其病态陷阱进行完善,并提出阶段判定的量化指标,揭示阶段转化的主导因素。根据修正后的理论模型,以旅游地社会-生态系统较为敏感的贫困山区金寨县为例,运用综合指数法对2010—2017年间的恢复力、潜力以及连通度进行定量分析,判断和预测旅游地适应性循环阶段及转化趋势,验证修正后的理论模型。结果表明:金寨县目前处于贫困陷阱,根据当前转化条件,未来将趋向于赌博陷阱;受政策的影响也可能进入开发阶段或保护阶段,若发展过程中避免陷阱可能带来的资源浪费,适应性循环将呈良性运行。     

我国旅游上市公司的股板结构与技术效率

本文探讨了我国旅游上市公司股权结构与技术效率的关系。运用数据包络分析方法,本文发现,酒店类和综合类旅游上市公司的技术效率明显好于景点类公司。进一步分析发现,股权集中度对我国旅游上市公司技术效率的影响存在显著倒U型关系,而股权制衡度、董事会持股比例和总经理持股比例对旅游上市公司技术效率的提高均有显著的积极作用。     

Tourism agglomeration and urbanization: empirical evidence from China

Tourism-driven urbanization presents a new way of exploring the construction of a new-type of urbanization. Consequently, the relationship between urbanization and the frequent agglomeration of tourism activities has attracted much research attention in recent years. This paper empirically investigates the influence of tourism agglomeration on urbanization using China’s provincial panel data for years 1999–2012. A panel data model with a fixed effect model and a two-step system generalized method of moments estimation is constructed to explore that influence. Results show that tourism agglomeration positively influences urbanization, and there exists a U-shaped relationship between these two variables. After capturing the dynamic nature of urbanization, we estimate the long-term tourism agglomeration elasticity in China as 0.4566. This paper provides theoretical and practical implications on urbanization of China in view of tourism agglomeration.     

A piecewise linear approach to modeling and forecasting demand for Macau tourism

In this paper, we construct and use a piecewise linear method to model and forecast, on a monthly basis, the demand for Macau tourism. Data over the period January 1991–December 2005 and a seasonally adjusted series for tourism demand are used. The study examines 4 forecasting horizons ranging from 6 to 24 months in advance. Mean absolute percentage errors and root mean square errors are adopted as criteria for evaluating the accuracy of the forecasting exercises. Finally, the forecasts of piecewise linear model are compared with those of autoregressive trend model, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and its arch-rival fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average models. The piecewise linear model is more accurate than the three benchmark models tested and the improvement is practically significant.