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1.
Forest loss and fragmentation, which generate various negative environmental and ecological consequences, have become widespread phenomena across the globe. Motivation to investigate the underlying drivers is essential for land use planning and policy decision making. This paper characterizes forest loss and fragmentation from 1979 to 2014 in the Ningbo region (China) using multitemporal satellite imageries and a set of landscape metrics (area-weighted mean patch area, edge density, area-weighted shape index, Euclidean nearest neighbor distance, effective mesh size and total area); and then quantifies the responsible socioeconomic drivers (economy, social activities, science and technology, culture and policy, demography) under different land use planning schemes (urban and non-urban) using multivariate linear regression. Results show that the two zones present identical trend of intensifying forest loss and fragmentation but differ in changing magnitude and speed. More specifically, forest loss and fragmentation in the non-urban planning zone occurs at a significantly higher pace and magnitude. For the urban planning zone, population pressure, economic growth and fruit consumption are the primary drivers of forest loss, while forest fragmentation is mainly driven by economic openness, cash crop consumption and environmental protection consciousness. For the non-urban planning zone, income increases, fruit consumption and infrastructure development are the primary drivers of forest loss, while infrastructure and tourism development are the major drivers of forest fragmentation. Besides, forest loss and fragmentation in the two zones are both heavily subjected to land use policy. The variance partitioning analysis highlights that the policy driver is the most influential one and economic driver also has strong effect on forest loss and fragmentation in the urban planning zone. For the non-urban planning zone, the influence of policy driver is the strongest and social activity is also very powerful. These results provide compelling evidence that land use planning fails to play an efficient role in protecting forest resources in the Ningbo region. The failure should be attributed to several issues associated with land use planning and forestry governance that widely exist in China. We finally propose some pertinent implications and suggestions for China’s land use planning and forest policy. This study is believed to advance the understanding of the socioeconomic drivers of forest loss and fragmentation. It therefore provides some new insights in land use policy.  相似文献   

2.
Forests have historically been under significant land use pressures that cause periods of degradation, clearance, and recovery. To understand these changes, studies are needed that place trends in a historical landscape context and also examine recent dynamics. Here, we use historical investigation (c. 1800) and an examination of land use and land cover change between 1973 and 2006 to establish a baseline trajectory of the forested system of the south-central United States (US) plains. The study culminates in a highly detailed accounting of the processes and causes of land change between 2001 and 2006. In the study region, the forest transitioned from early low-intensity use, to clearance for farming and timber, to widespread recovery from degradation beginning in the 1930s. By 1970, the region was transitioning from recovered woodlands to an intensive regime of recurrent timber harvest and replanting. The recurring cycle inherent in intensive silviculture has been the main cause of land change for the past several decades, accounting for more than 95% of the total extent of change between 2001 and 2006. The transition to forest recovery in the south-central US was an important historical occurrence. However, the dynamic post-transition landscape needs to be better understood.  相似文献   

3.
Higher crop yields are critical to satisfy the rising global food demand. Russia holds untapped potential for increasing agricultural production because current grain yields are often far below the potentially attainable yields. Western Siberia is an important breadbasket in Russia, where wheat yields fall particularly short of their potential. Our goal was to assess the determinants of yield variations among farmers in the province of Altai Krai in Western Siberia. We conducted 67 structured in-person interviews with corporate farm managers and individual farmers about the potential determinants of wheat yields and complemented these data with 149 additional observations obtained from the provincial agricultural extension service. We used Bayesian networks (BNs) to represent the relationships between the explanatory parameters and contemporary wheat yields and to examine qualitative future scenarios of future yields. The results revealed higher yields on larger farms than on medium and small farms. Our results corroborated that the application of fertilizers and herbicides and the implementation of new equipment had large positive impacts on the yields. The scenario of higher future production costs and lower precipitation resulted in a yield reduction from 7.6 dt/ha to 5.3. Overall, our results suggest that policies aimed at increasing wheat yields should concentrate on the education of farmers and encourage higher input applications, particularly for small-scale farms. Additionally, policies should address concurrent challenges, such as a higher drought frequency, through the application of new equipment, seed material and tillage practices.  相似文献   

4.
By using Northeast China as example, this study measured the characteristics of the land use transition of underdeveloped areas (UAs) of China and explored the underlying transition mechanism. This study found that, the main characteristics of the land use transition of Northeast China during the last two decades (1995–2015) were continuous expansion of cropland, accelerated growth of construction land, and continuous reduction of woodland and grassland, as well as unused land. Policies dominate the process of land use transition of the UAs of China. The land use transition of UAs of China is a result of interaction and coupling between socio-ecological feedback under the guidance of policies and socio-economic change under the influence of policies. The former determines the direction of regional land use transition while the latter determines the intensity of this transition. During the process of land use transition, the sustainable use of land of the UAs of China faces several severe issues: inefficient use of urban construction land caused by unreasonable policy support, degradation of the ecological environment caused by irrational expansion of cropland, and both policy instability and policy conflicts. To resolve these issues, punishment and accountability of local governmental violations of land use should be strengthened. Furthermore, a land use information disclosure system and public supervision mechanism should be established by policy makers. The starting point of policy formulation should be shifted from quantity growth to quality improvement as well as from economic benefits to comprehensive benefits.  相似文献   

5.
Human societies constantly interact with the environment through mutual feedbacks and adaptations. The aim of this research was to analyze human and environmental dimensions so as to understand how the dynamic processes of land use and land cover change are contributing to the increase of forest cover observed between 1985 and 2011 in the Paraíba Valley, Brazil. The forestry sector, based on eucalyptus plantations, is given particular attention due to its role in these change processes. Multi-layer perception neural network (MPNN) models were adopted to evaluate the influence of independent variables in the process of the forest transition. Based on the model's results, we conclude that the process is conditioned by a set of biophysical and socioeconomic variables that operate during different historical periods and in different landscape settings. The proximity of Atlantic forest remnants was influential in the forest transition for the three periods analyzed: 1985–1995, 1995–2005, and 2005–2011. In the first period of change (1985–1995), topography was most influential. Between the periods of 1995–2005 and 2005–2011, the proximity to eucalyptus plantations was an important factor, indicating a high probability of native forest recovery occurring in the vicinity of these monocultural areas. The forest transition tends to occur in areas less suitable for agriculture at the outset, but as these areas are replaced by forest cover, socioeconomic drivers such as farm credit and economic development play important roles in forest recovery.  相似文献   

6.
The Chinese government applies the term ‘tree crops’ (jingjilin) to a bundle of tree species with uses other than timber production, defining this category as a component of national forest statistics. Tree crops may displace either farmland or forestland, and can be a promising livelihood option for smallholders. The overall impact of this particular policy on natural forest growth remained unanswered. In the general expansion trend of tree cover in southern China, tree crops could compete for land with natural forests, their cultivation may pose environmental trade-offs with natural forest cover. However, in a context of large labor flows from countryside to cities, tree crops could provide promising opportunities for dealing with on-farm labor shortages and generating income for disadvantaged populations remaining in rural communities, then promoting remaining natural forest quality through alternative livelihoods process. There is a knowledge gap to thoroughly investigate tree crops’ impact on natural forest change both conceptually and empirically, especially a mechanism verification of the alternative livelihood hypothesis. Thus, we construct a framework assessing land use competition and alternative livelihood effects together to assess overall impacts of tree crop cultivation on natural forests. Our dataset combines forest resource inventory data and provincial social-economic factors for a panel analysis of contributions to change in natural forest cover, density, and stock in China’s biodiversity-rich southern provinces. Results show tree crop cover is negatively associated with natural forest extent, but positive associated with change in natural forest density, while the relationship with change in natural forest stock is insignificant. Further tests of mechanisms support the hypothesis that tree crops benefit disadvantaged rural populations, providing an alternative livelihood. Defining tree crops as forest in China obscures important patterns, particularly a trade-off between tree crops and natural forest cover and a possible synergy with natural forest density mediated by alternative livelihood processes. Policy makers should enact specific policies to incentivize natural forest recovery in the southern collective forest zone and reconsider the appropriateness of defining tree crops as forest. Concentration and intensification of tree crop production on suitable lands may have the potential to benefit both forests and impoverished populations.  相似文献   

7.
The Kilombero Valley floodplain in Tanzania is a major agricultural area. Government initiatives and projects supported by international funding have long sought to boost productivity. Due to increasing population pressure, smallholder farmers are forced to increase their output. Nevertheless, the level of intensification is still lower than what is considered necessary to increase production and support smallholder livelihoods significantly. This article aims to better understand farmers’ intensification choices and their interdependent determinants. We propose a novel modeling approach for identifying determinants of intensification and their interrelationships by combining a Bayesian belief network (BBN), experimental design, and multivariate regression trees. Our approach complements existing lower-dimensional statistical models by considering uncertainty and providing an easily updatable model structure. The BBN is constructed and calibrated using data from a survey of 304 farm households. Our findings show how the data-driven BBN approach can be used to identify variables that influence farmers’ decision to choose one technique over another. Furthermore, the most important drivers vary widely, depending on the intensification options being considered.  相似文献   

8.
This themed issue of Land Use Policy builds mainly on papers presented at an international conference on ‘Land Use Issues and Policy in China under Rapid Rural and Urban Transformation’, convened by the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, China, in October 2012. The conference set out to share and promote new scientific findings from a range of disciplines that advance research on land use policy in China. The contributions to this themed issue provide conceptual–theoretical and empirical takes on the topic, around four main areas of interest to both researchers and policymakers: nation-wide land use issues, the Sloping Land Conversion Program, land engineering and land use, and land use transitions. Various land use issues have been associated with rapid urban–rural transformations in China, giving rise to formulation of new policies directly affecting land use. However, these have contributed to new land use problems due to the nature of the policies and the difficulties in policy implementation constrained by the special ‘dual-track’ structure of urban–rural development in China. In view of this, this themed edition makes a compelling call for more systematic research into the making and implementation of China's land use policy. It also emphasizes the challenges for further research on land use policy in China.  相似文献   

9.
The environmental, cultural and economic consequences of land use change, including abandonment of agricultural use, have been recognized for a long time. It has often been assumed that the transformations of the agricultural systems in developed countries (and particularly in Europe) took place, for the main part, in the immediate years after the Second World War. In this paper we present a review of different statistical and cartographic sources available for a peripheral region in Europe (Galicia, Spain) characterized by small-scale farming and a very fragmented property system, that suggests otherwise: modernization of agriculture apparently took place without major changes in agricultural area until the country gained access to the European Economic Community, and the effect of Common Agricultural Policy reforms during the decade of 1990 is suggested as a major driver for the net decrease of agricultural area in the region between 1956 and 2004. On the other hand, this paper emphasizes the spatial complexity of agricultural abandonment with a case study, showing a large degree of variability at municipal scale and thus the need of future EU-level projects to work at least at municipal (Local Administrative Units 2, LAU 2) level. Finally, a multinomial logistic model for observed changes is included that shows how biophysical limitations were the main drivers behind abandonment of agriculture at parcel scale, while structural qualities related to property structure were strongly associated to the incorporation of former shrublands to agricultural use. Besides, Farm Structure Surveys were revealed as an unreliable source for the assessment of changes in total agricultural area in the studied region.  相似文献   

10.
In rural Ecuador and elsewhere in Latin America, the departure of migrants and the receipt of migrant remittances have led to declining rural populations and increasing cash incomes. It is commonly assumed that these processes will lead to agricultural abandonment and the regrowth of native vegetation, thus undermining traditional livelihoods and providing a boon for biodiversity conservation. However, an increasing number of household-level studies have found mixed and complex effects of out-migration and remittances on agriculture. We advance this literature by using household survey data and satellite imagery from three study areas in rural Ecuador to investigate the effects of migration and remittances on agricultural land use. Multivariate methods are used to disaggregate the effects of migration and remittances, to account for other influences on land use and to correct for the potential endogeneity of migration and remittances. Contrary to common assumptions but consistent with previous studies, we find that migrant departure has a positive effect on agricultural activities that is offset by migrant remittances. These results suggest that rural out-migration alone is not likely to lead to a forest transition in the study areas.  相似文献   

11.
Predicting soil erosion potential is important in watershed management. A rapidly growing Iranian population and climate change are expected to influence land use and soil sustainability. In recent years, northern Iran has experienced significant land use changes due to internal migration along the Caspian coast and conversion of forests and rangelands. Considering the effect of these changes in the future, the purpose of this study is to forecast land use patterns and investigate soil erosion scenarios using the Revised Universal Loss Equation and Markov Cellular Automata. Data from 1981 to 2011 were used as a baseline to estimate changes that might occur in 2030. The results reveal that the mean erosion potential will increase 45% from the estimated 104.52 t ha−1 year−1 in the baseline period. Moreover, the results indicate that land use change from forest area to settlements will be the most significant factor in erosion induced by land use change, showing the highest correlation among erosional factors. Projecting land use change and its effect on soil erosion indicate that conversion may be unsustainable if change occurs on land that is not suited to the use. The method predicts soil erosion under different scenarios and provides policymakers a basis for altering programs related to land use optimization and urban growth. Those results indicated the necessity of appropriate policies and regulations particularly for limiting land use changes and urban sprawl in areas of unfavorable soil erosion risk factors.  相似文献   

12.
Agricultural land abandonment (ALA) is widespread in many countries of the global north. It impacts rural communities, traditional landscapes, biodiversity and ecosystem services. It is an opportunity for ecosystem restoration or new landscape functions. We explored ALA in study areas in Australia, Portugal and Sweden. In each, we assessed plant species diversity, historical trajectories of land cover change; and the socioeconomic past, present and future in interviews with farmers. The ALA data was integrated and analysed by identifying the drivers of change. The relative importance of each driver and its scale of action was estimated, both in the past (1950–2010) and in the future (2010–2030). ALA has transformed rural landscapes in the study areas of Portugal and Sweden. It is at a much earlier stage with potential to increase in the Australian case. We identified a set of driving forces, classified into pressures, frictions and attractors that clarify why ALA, noting its temporal and spatial scale, occurs differently in each study area. The effect of the drivers is related to social and historical contexts. Pressures and attractors encouraging agricultural abandonment are strongest in Portugal and Sweden. Generally more (institutionalized) frictions are in place in these European sites, intended to prevent further change, based on the benefits assumed for biodiversity and aesthetics. In Australia, the stimulation of driving forces to promote a well-managed abandonment of some cleared areas could be highly beneficial for biodiversity, minimally disruptive for current dairy farming operations and would bring opportunities for alternative types of rural development.  相似文献   

13.
This paper links urbanization strategies to changes in land use and associated impacts on rural communities and agro-ecosystems in a rural area of China. Energy, monetary and human time variables as well as information on environmental pressures, have been combined to compare different typologies of households and the metabolism of different patterns of land use from an integrated perspective. The results show that urbanization strategies, aimed at shifting the current land use and at displacing the local population, while increasing the economic efficiency is also associated with an increase in fossil energy consumption and environmental pressure, as well as a reduction of the multifunctional characteristic of the area under investigation. Based on these findings the paper also offers a critical discussion of the Chinese rural development policy arguing that the multifunctionality of rural areas should be taken into account by Chinese policy-makers and planners as a viable strategy to achieve rural development targets.  相似文献   

14.
In order to reduce the soil erosion rate on the Chinese Loess Plateau, the Chinese government launched in 1999 the “Grain for Green” program (GfG). The objective of this program was to increase the forest cover on steep slopes in the landscape by planting trees and sowing grasses on former cropland. The program was a massive investment by the Chinese government. By the end of 2005 the GfG-program was implemented in an area of 87,000 km2 in which about 400–600 million trees were planted. At present it is not known to what extent this program was successful. This paper examines the effects of the GfG-program on the mean annual vegetation cover in the Shaanxi province. A decadal time series of SPOT VEGETATION imagery from 1998 till 2005 were used to calculate NDVI-values in four counties with different rainfall regimes. By means of a regression between preceding rainfall and NDVI-values the effects of rainfall variability were filtered out. A trend analysis of the corrected NDVI time series pointed out that the GfG-program resulted in a significant increase of the vegetation cover on farmland in the northern part of Shaanxi province. In the southern part of the province, which has a more humid climate and large areas of irrigation farmland no significant increase of the vegetation cover on farmland could be detected.  相似文献   

15.
China’s Returning Farmland to Forest Program (RFFP) aimed to transform rural landscapes and livelihoods by compensating households for planting trees on retired farmland. The program has been attributed a key role in an apparent forest transition. Studies uncover great local variation in its impacts, but the mechanisms behind them have received little attention. We examine such heterogeneity in 12 communities in northwest Yunnan, assessing the hypothesis that the RFFP catalyzed a state-led forest transition by evaluating the contributions of RFFP implementation and other processes to land cover change. Our dataset combines socioeconomic data from household surveys, focus groups, and intensive interviews with remote sensing data for a linked, cross-scale analysis. Results show no significant relationship between RFFP implementation and community-level vegetation cover change. Between 2000 and 2010, high-elevation communities had larger vegetation gains, while from 2010 to 2014, low-elevation communities had larger gains. Regression analyses and interview data show off-farm labor, tree crop planting, and changing energy sources influenced the rate of community-level vegetation change. This pattern, combining tree crop cultivation with labor outflows, may represent a distinct “policy plantation” pathway of forest gain. Meanwhile, new, high-elevation cash crops may be constraining forest expansion. This analysis suggests limited additionality for the RFFP in this region and highlights how heterogeneous, intersecting land use processes bring uneven forest transitions.  相似文献   

16.
Research on the dynamics of tropical forest land use and cover change (LUCC) has focused on the three scenarios: (1) deforestation/degradation; (2) settled, degraded areas in recovery, and (3) sparsely settled, expansive, intact forest. Through examination of a central Quintana Roo, Mexico case study we propose a fourth scenario of a ‘sustainable landscape’: an inhabited, productively used, forested landscape that nonetheless shows little change or net gains in forest cover over the last 25 years. We use Landsat images to demonstrate a low incidence of net deforestation, 0.01% for the 1984–2000 period, the lowest recorded deforestation rate for southeastern Mexico. Institutional innovations such as an agrarian reform process that established large common property forests for non-timber forest product extraction, and later innovations such as sustainable forest management institutions have driven the outcome of low net deforestation, added to multiple organizational processes that promote sustainable land use.  相似文献   

17.
Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are exposed to numerous threats stemming from human activity and are considered a high conservation priority globally. Nevertheless, planning the conservation, management, and restoration of forests requires a detailed regional understanding of current forest distribution, and patterns and attractors of deforestation. We explored SDTF cover in the state of Veracruz, Mexico, where little is known about this type of forest since it was erroneously considered to have been eliminated and thus has not be included in recent conservation planning in Mexico. A time-series of land use and land cover (LULC) maps, based on Landsat imagery from 1973 (MSS), 1990 (TM), and 2000 (ETM+), was used to analyze historical patterns of deforestation and fragmentation of SDTF in a priority watershed in central Veracruz. Stepwise logistic regression was used to identify the main attractors of forest loss. Maps based on higher resolution SPOT imagery (2007–2008) were used to determine the current extent of SDTF. Results from our LULC analysis revealed landscapes that were consistently dominated (>50%) by some combination of intensified land use including cattle pastures, rain-fed and irrigated agricultural lands, with closed SDTF cover fluctuating from 11.3 to 9.26% during the study period (1973–2007). Annualized rates of forest loss between Landsat images (1973 vs. 2000; −2.02%) and between Landsat and SPOT images (1973 vs. 2007; −0.59), were moderate to low, with historical records suggesting that most deforestation occurred more than a century ago before the Mexican revolution. Nevertheless, rates of forest loss varied considerable between different time periods, with slight reforestation initially (1.55%; 1973–1990), followed by a marked decline (−8.08%; 1990–2000), and finally a noticeable increases in forest cover (4.92%; 2000–2007) that corresponds with changes in public policy and trends in population migration. The number of forest patches tripled between 1973 and 2000 and the mean forest patch area decreased almost 80% over the same time period. Logistic regression analysis (1973–2000) indicated that the main attractors of closed forest transformation were proximity to gentle slopes, cattle pastures, and the hydraulic infrastructure needed for crop irrigation. Although SDTF is highly fragmented and perturbed, important remnants of this diverse native forest still persists in the region. Our findings are discussed in the context of future conservation and restoration efforts.  相似文献   

18.
以1992、1998、2004、2009年的金石滩地区土地利用数据为基础,运用GIS软件的叠置分析,空间分析对研究区土地变化时空分异研究。本文通过单一土地利用动态度和综合土地动态度分析研究区内图地类型变化的速度和趋势,同时将土地利用扩展强度指数带入分析土地利用规模的变化,以此探究其土地利用变化的驱动因素。研究表明,土地利用数量变化模式呈现耕地面积大量减少,建设用地迅速增加:1992-2013年各土地利用类型单一动态度中耕地和未利用地减少速度相对较快,分别为-4.36%和-4.37%;城乡建设用地增加最快,为21.37%,其次为交通水利用地,为17.99%;1998-2004年综合土地利用动态度最大,为3.63%,这期间土地利用变化最为迅速,旅游开发活动剧烈。扩展强度指数计算各土地类型得出,耕地的扩展强度指数最低,为-1.48,城乡建设用地的扩展强度指数最高,为1.42%。研究结果可信。  相似文献   

19.
Cropland use is experiencing an intense transition in both depth and breadth with rapid development of the Chinese economy. Unwarranted land use transitions can affect the ecosystem services value (ESV) and ecosystem functions significantly. This paper reports the dynamic patterns of cropland transition (CLT) and its impact on ESV in Jiangsu Province based on land-use data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2013, crop yield data, empirical data related to ESV, some revisions adapted to the situation of Jiangsu, and Geo-information Tupu methods. Jiangsu has experienced rapid economic growth and urbanization, which can be seen as a microcosm of China's development. Results showed that the total area of cropland decreased markedly from 1990 to 2013. This loss of cropland took place mainly through the expansion of construction land and water area, accounting for 83.78% and 13.71%, respectively. The gain in cropland came mainly from construction land, water area, grassland, and woodland, accounting for 58.92%, 19.92%, 11.46%, and 10.22%. The transitions from 2000 to 2010 were much more significant than during 1990–2000 and 2010–2013. CLTs were accompanied by relatively concentrated distributions near towns and cities and the distributions in southern and central Jiangsu were more than in northern Jiangsu. Between 1990 and 2013, CLTs gave rise to a decrease of 6.78 million US$ ESV that was mostly caused by the transition from cropland to construction land and water area to cropland. Based on this information, some of the major implications for improving the land use policy and ecological protection policy in China were discussed. These include increased emphasis on land quality and ecological environment in balance between cropland addition and conversion, introducing ESV measures to evaluate the ecological effect of land-use planning, and establish an all-around ecological compensation mechanism.  相似文献   

20.
Urban development in China is based on two types of land ownership, namely, state land owned by states and collective land owned by village collectives. Legally speaking, urban development must be based on state land. In practice, informal development based on collective land has played important roles in the rapid urbanization process over the past decades. Nonetheless, the vague property rights over collective land have led to inferior and suboptimal development outcomes in expansive urban areas. The redevelopment of collective land has become an important means to sustain urban development in an ongoing urbanization process. By adopting theoretical perspectives from New Institutional Economics, this study presents an integrated conceptual framework on the institutional arrangements of land property rights and transaction costs to understand the changes in land policies and their institutional implications for the redevelopment of collective land in Shenzhen, China. The findings reveal that the new policies have redefined the relationship among the government, village collectives, and real estate developers as well as their property rights over collective land. The change of institutional arrangements in land property rights has significantly reduced the transaction costs in the redevelopment process and effectively promoted land redevelopment activities.  相似文献   

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