The impact of financial development,economic growth,income inequality on poverty: evidence from India

This paper examines the impact of financial development, economic growth and income inequality on poverty in India from 1970 to 2015 by employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure. The findings reveal a robust long-run relationship between financial development, economic growth, inequality and poverty. Results show that financial development and economic growth help in poverty reduction in India, whereas income inequality and inflation aggravate poverty. Empirical evidence of the Granger-causality test supports the presence of unidirectional causality from financial development and economic growth to poverty. Moreover, bidirectional causality exists between inequality and poverty. The present study provides evidence on which the policymakers may proceed with detailed investigation of how specific financial sector policies and interventions can be deployed as effective instruments for achieving favorable economic growth and income distribution. The study recommends that policies geared toward increasing financial development and economic growth should be adopted to reduce the high level of poverty and inequality currently prevailing in India.     

多维贫困的空间集聚与金融减贫的空间溢出—来自中国的经验证据

文章利用中国30个省份1999?2014年的省际面板数据,结合空间计量模型探讨了农村贫困的空间集聚效应和金融减贫的空间溢出效应.研究发现,不管是采用地理距离权重、经济距离权重还是嵌套权重,农民收入贫困、教育贫困和医疗贫困均呈现出显著的空间正向关联,意味着贫困分布呈现典型的"穷-穷"集聚特征,这一分布特征实际上从贫困角度验证了中国区域发展的不平衡.对收入贫困和教育贫困,农村金融发展不仅具有直接的减贫作用,还通过空间溢出效应对邻近省份发挥间接减贫作用,且这种溢出效应带来的减贫效果比直接效应更为显著.对医疗贫困等公共服务上的贫困,其改善主要依赖于政府财政支出和当地经济水平的发展.文章的研究结论有助于政府从多维视角重新审视农民面临的贫困问题,为"十三五"实施全面脱贫拓宽了视野.     

On the causal nexus of remittances and poverty reduction in Bangladesh

The aim of this article is to investigate the causal relationship between remittances and poverty reduction in Bangladesh over the period 1976 to 2010. This issue is of fundamental importance for the developing economy of Bangladesh. We apply newly developed methods by Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006, 2012) that are based on simulations and are robust to the violation of statistical assumptions especially when the sample size is small, as is the case in this article. Our estimation results reveal that causality nexus of poverty and remittances is bi-directional. We also find that the causal impact of poverty reduction on remittance is stronger than the reverse impact. This finding implies that Bangladeshi policy-makers can influence remittances through poverty reduction in the long run.     

包容性金融发展与农村居民贫困减缓——基于全要素生产率视角的分析

本文用DEA—Malmquist指数法测算了全要素生产率指数，结合2006—2016年中国内地省际面板数据，基于全要素生产率视角，运用中介效应模型实证分析了包容性金融发展对农村居民贫困的影响。实证结果表明：（1）包容性金融发展能够通过全要素生产率的中介效应发挥减贫作用。（2）进一步的研究发现，包容性金融服务渗透度的提升对贫困的影响最为显著；同时，包容性金融发展可通过技术进步和效率提升作用来推动全要素生产率增长，进一步作用于贫困。（3）稳健性检验表明，我国东部与中西部地区包容性金融发展水平差异较大，对全要素生产率的提升乃至农村减贫的贡献表现出较大不平衡性。本文的政策建议为：首先，应持续推进包容性金融发展，充分发挥全要素生产率的中介效应，以更快实现2020年全面脱贫目标；其次，要继续加强农村金融基础设施建设，以实现金融 服务均等性，充分发挥金融减贫的优势；最后，要合理配置金融资源，注重地区间发展的公平性，以实现经济社会均衡发展。     

Causal relationship between apparel exports and macroeconomic factors

Apparel exports make a significant contribution to economic growth in major apparel exporting economies such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between apparel export growth and its determinants such as GDP growth, infrastructure, financial development, foreign direct investment (FDI) and labour productivity using panel data from 11 major apparel exporting countries for the period 1996 to 2013. The results confirm a long-run equilibrium association among the variables and reveal that GDP growth, infrastructure, financial development, FDI, and labour productivity have a significant positive influence on apparel export growth. Furthermore, the heterogeneous panel non-causality test results suggest that GDP growth, infrastructure and labour productivity contribute to apparel export growth in the short-run. These findings have several policy implications for the governments of the countries under study.     

南亚三国农村金融实践及其对我国的启示

通过改善农村金融服务以促进农村脱贫与发展已经成为世界各国之共识,广大发展中国家在这方面进行了艰辛的探索。在研究大量国外第一手资料的基础上,对印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国三个南亚国家农村金融实践进行了比较全面的考察,总结分析了构建有效的农村金融服务体系的基本经验和要求,提出了深化我国农村金融改革的具体建议。     

经济增长、产业结构与农村减贫——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

在经济增长与减贫关系问题上,大量的实证研究仅仅用经济增长以及伴随增长过程的收入分配状态作为解释变量,其结论与现实的契合性不够稳定。通过在计量模型中加入产业结构、农业生产条件、农业扶贫与发展政策等关键性的中间变量,并采用跨越"八七扶贫攻坚"期间和新世纪"农村扶贫开发"两个发展时期的省际面板数据,实证分析表明经济增长在农村减贫中具有重要地位,城乡收入差距扩大对农村减贫具有显著的负效应。与现有的大量实证研究结论不同,本研究表明不同产业在经济发展的不同阶段对农村减贫的影响是不同的,三次产业发展对农村贫困的影响发生了一定程度的逆转。因此,新时期反贫困战略也应做出相应的调整。     

Population growth and development: the case of Bangladesh

In a poor, overly populated country such as Bangladesh, some believe that a high rate of population growth is a cause of poverty which impedes economic development. Population growth would therefore be exogenous to economic development. However, others believe that rapid population growth is a consequence rather than a cause of poverty. Population growth is therefore endogenous to economic development. Findings are presented from an investigation of whether population growth has been exogenous or endogenous with respect to Bangladesh's development process during the past 3 decades. The increase in per capita real gross domestic product (GDP) is used as a measure of development. Data on population, real GDP per capita, and real investment share of GDP are drawn from the Penn World Table prepared by Summers and Heston in 1991. The data are annual and cover the period 1959-90. Analysis of the data indicate that population growth is endogenous to Bangladesh's development process. These findings are reflected both in the Granger causality tests and the decompositions of variances of detrended real GDP per capita and population growth.     

The effects of location and sectoral components of economic growth on poverty: Evidence from Indonesia

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between economic growth and poverty reduction by differentiating growth and poverty into their sectoral composition and urban–rural location using data from Indonesia. We find that rural services growth reduces poverty in all sectors and locations. However, urban services growth has the largest effect on poverty in most sectors. Finally, we also find that rural agriculture growth strongly reduces poverty in rural areas, the largest contributor to poverty in Indonesia. This implies that while agriculture growth in rural areas still plays a major role in reducing poverty, policies that enable strong growth in the services sector in both urban and rural areas would expedite poverty reduction.     

The effects of fragility and financial inequalities on inclusive growth in African countries

Africa has the largest number and proportion of fragile states in the world. Fragile states are characterized by slower economic growth, higher incidences of poverty, and persistent inequality. Thus, there is a circular relationship between fragility, inequality, and slow economic growth. This study examines the relationship between fragility, financial inequalities, and inclusive growth in African countries. We introduce a novel way of examining inclusive growth in African countries by developing a unified measure of inclusive growth that captures the two dimensions of inclusive growth: income growth and income distribution. This enables us to adequately assess not just increased opportunities arising from economic growth, but also see how those new opportunities are distributed across all segments of the population. We captured the fragile status of African countries by using an index of fragility. We measured financial inequalities using new data on financial inclusion. The data analysis suggested negative relationships between fragility and inclusive growth in African countries. In addition, the results suggest positive relationships between financial inclusion and inclusive growth. Thus, inclusive growth can be fostered through policies that reduce financial inequalities. Therefore, a less fragile environment is conducive to inclusive growth both directly and indirectly through financial inclusion.     

湖南省金融发展与经济增长的ECM模型分析

金融发展与经济增长的关系是经济学的一个重要研究领域。选取1982—2008年为时间段,以湖南省为例对金融发展与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明湖南省信贷存量、其他金融机构发展（除银行）与经济增长呈正相关关系,而货币存量与经济增长呈负相关关系。经济增长是其他金融机构发展的短期格兰杰原因,而存贷存量在长期上是经济增长的格兰杰原因。     

Poverty Reduction and Economic Structure: Comparative Path Analysis for Mozambique and Vietnam

While economic growth generally reduces income poverty, there are pronounced differences in the strength of this relationship across countries. Typical explanations for this variation include measurement errors in growth–poverty accounting and different compositions of economic growth. We explore the additional influence of economic structure in determining a country's growth–poverty relationship and performance. Using structural path analysis, we compare the experiences of Mozambique and Vietnam—two countries with similar levels and compositions of economic growth but divergent poverty outcomes. We find that the structure of the Vietnamese economy more naturally lends itself to generating broad‐based growth. A given agricultural demand expansion in Mozambique will, ceteris paribus, achieve much less rural income growth than in Vietnam. Inadequate education, trade and transport systems are found to be more severe structural constraints to poverty reduction in Mozambique than in Vietnam. Investing in these areas can significantly enhance the effectiveness of Mozambican growth to reduce poverty.     

The quest for pro-poor and inclusive growth: the role of governance

This paper analyses the role of good governance in fostering pro-poor and inclusive growth. Using a sample of 112 countries over 1975–2012, it shows that growth is generally pro-poor. However, growth has not been inclusive, as illustrated by a decline in the bottom 20 percent of the income distribution. While all features of good governance support income growth and reduce poverty, only government effectiveness and the rule of law are found to enhance inclusive growth. The investigation of the determinants of pro-poor and inclusive growth highlights that education, infrastructure improvement, and financial development are the key factors in poverty reduction and inclusive growth. Relying on the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model, the paper identifies a nonlinear relationship between governance and pro-poor growth, while the impact of governance on inclusive growth appears to be linear.     

Trade and Financial Liberalisation and Endogenous Growth in Bangladesh

This paper empirically explores the joint impact of financial and trade liberalisation on economic growth in Bangladesh using various time series techniques, endogenous growth theory and annual data from 1975–95. Our empirical results are in accordance with the predictions of endogenous growth theory that both financial and trade liberalisation, along with investment in human capital enhance economic growth, suggesting the case for liberalisation of both the financial and trade sectors and suggesting that government initiatives in education policy may expedite economic growth. Results are robust across methodologies. [E52, F43, O11, O53]     

Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: A Revisionist Approach

In this piece, we highlight some of the salient issues and controversies surrounding the relationship between financial development and economic growth, from both the theoretical and the empirical fronts. We first discuss the controversies on the role of financial development in economic growth; and we then proceed to review the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth. We conclude that the relationship between financial development and economic growth is highly complex, and is dependent on a number of factors. Hence, the argument that financial development always leads to economic growth should be taken with extreme caution.     

Workers’ remittances and the Dutch disease in South Asian countries

Workers’ remittances have become an important source of foreign exchange for some emerging economies even when compared to official development assistance, foreign direct investment or other types of capital flows. While some research suggests that a high inflow of remittances lowers poverty and stimulates economic growth and financial development, other studies suggest that remittances can appreciate the real exchange rate and thereby hurt the competitiveness of the tradeable sector. In this article, we examine the Dutch disease argument for Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka using a fixed effects model. We are unable to reject the null that there is a statistically significant appreciating effect of remittances on real exchange rate. Since our estimation results show that trade openness causes a depreciation of the real exchange rate, the appreciation effect of the real exchange rate originating from remittance inflows can be made weaker by trade liberalization.     

Economic growth,the nature of growth and poverty reduction in rural China

This paper examines some of the major driving forces of poverty reduction in China. Based on time series and cross-sectional provincial data, the determinants of rural poverty incidence are estimated. The results show that economic growth is an essential and necessary condition for nationwide poverty reduction. It is not, however, a sufficient condition. While economic growth played a dominant role in reducing poverty through the mid-1990s, its impact has diminished since that time. Beyond general economic growth, growth in specific sectors of the economy is also found to be effective in reducing poverty. The finding of our paper is consistent with the idea that poverty reduction in the future will need to be adjusted with more emphasis being given on direct targeting through helping the poor to increase their human capital and incomes.     

Financial development and poverty: evidence from the CFA Franc Zone

The financial liberalization in the 1980s and early 1990s led the CFA Franc Zone countries to deepen reforms in their financial systems. These reforms fostered financial development, which in turn may have reduced income poverty, as emphasized by several theoretical arguments in the literature. This study aims at estimating the contribution of financial development to poverty alleviation in the CFA Franc Zone. Results based on a panel of CFA Franc Zone countries show that financial development is associated with a drop in the proportion of poor population. Next, financial development reduces the extent to which the income of individuals falls below the poverty line. Moreover, in some cases, the effect of financial development on poverty may be subject to nonlinearities. Finally, financial instability or unstable financial development leading to crises may mitigate the favourable effect of financial development on poverty reduction. These findings are robust to the use of alternative measures of financial development and hold after controlling for a potential simultaneity and a small sample biases.     

金融发展与经济增长——基于1952-2007年中国数据的再检验

本文分别以金融抑制论和金融结构论为指导,根据中国的实际情况,建立数学模型,进行多元回归分析,并利用VAR因果关系检验和方差分解探索中国金融发展与经济增长之间的关系.结论表明:(1)无论是金融抑制论还是金融结构论,金融发展与经济增长之间存在显著的正相关;(2)对于模型1来说,金融发展与经济增长存在单向因果关系,属于需求追随型;而模型2并没有显示金融发展与经济增长存在明显的因果关系,以银行为主导的金融结构通过内在传导机制对经济增长产生影响;(3)从金融发展对经济波动解释的力度来看,金融抑制论对解释金融发展与经济增长之间的关系比较弱,而金融结构论对经济增长的解释力要强.因此,在强调市场对金融资源优化配置的同时,更加关注以银行业为主导的金融机构改革,理顺金融发展与经济增长内在机制,以实现金融发展与经济增长相互促进、共同发展的目标.     

包容性增长研究述评

传统的经济增长理论不考虑其对减贫和不平等的影响,然而,近年来减贫速度的下降和不平等的增长促使人们重新认识经济增长。作为利贫增长的替代,包容性增长成为世界银行和许多国家的发展战略,本文从定义、度量、诊断、机制和理论基础等方面详细介绍了包容性增长的产生、发展以及将来的研究方向。