Nonlinear ARDL estimation of tourism demand for Puerto Rico from the USA

This study estimates the long-run demand for tourism for Puerto Rico (1970–2016) from the USA. Since income elasticity may not be symmetric through business cycles, it becomes necessary to account for the asymmetric impact of changes in income on tourism demand. To this end, the study utilizes the nonlinear ARDL framework of Shin et al. (2014) to investigate the asymmetric cointegration. The results indicate the existence of an asymmetric or nonlinear cointegration relationship between Puerto Rico's tourism demand and its determinants. The long-run asymmetric income elasticities suggest that a 1% increase in US's real per capita GDP leads to a 1.9% increase in Puerto Rico's tourism earnings, while a 1% decrease in US's real per capita GDP produces a 4.8% reduction in tourism receipts.     

International ecotourism and economic development in Central America and the Caribbean

Using annual data for the period 1995–2012 for seven Central American and Caribbean countries, six different open-economy growth models that allow for international (eco-) tourism are estimated using panel-data techniques. Two main results of the investigation are that international tourist arrivals per capita have a highly significant impact on real GDP per capita, and also that five different sustainability indicators interacted with international tourism have a positive impact on economic development. Furthermore, quantile regression shows that lower and medium income deciles of the population in particular benefit from international (eco-) tourism. The results are complemented by very similar findings for a set of 12 Central American and Caribbean countries using only two sustainability indicators, thus corroborating the validity of the specification. In addition, control variables are also generally significant and they feature the algebraic signs expected from economic theory.     

Tourism and inequality: A relook on the Kuznets curve

The study explores the impact of the tourism industry on income inequality upon a panel set of countries, classified in accordance with their levels of economic development. The countries are classified into three clusters based on their per capita GDP, the volume of international trade, and foreign direct investment inflows. The income inequality was measured using the GINI score. The long-run relationship between tourism receipts and GINI income inequality was explored for a panel set of forty-one countries over the period 1995 to 2016. The study concludes that earnings from tourism have varying impacts on the three clustered sets of countries. The inequality index of the highly developed countries remains unaffected by the earnings from tourism. The developed countries show Kuznets curve behaviour as far as the relationship between tourism and inequality is concerned. The developing countries exhibit an inverted Kuznets curve behaviour between tourism receipts and inequality of income.     

The effect of international tourism on economic development: An empirical analysis

The expansion of international tourism in developing countries is generally considered to promote their economic development. In this paper, the impact of international tourism on economic development is modelled using an aggregate production function framework. It specifically investigates intersectoral externalities and marginal factor productivity differences between the international tourism sector and the rest of the economy. The net effect of international tourism on GDP per capita is examined via an empirical analysis of 37 developing economies. The results indicate that international tourism may positively affect economic development in these countries.     

An empirical analysis of the influence of macroeconomic determinants on World tourism demand

This paper considers three econometric models to determine the relationship between macroeconomic variables and tourism demand. Tourism demand is measured by the inbound visitor's population and also by on-the-ground expenditures. The database is an unbalanced panel of 218 countries over the period 1995–2012. There is evidence that an increase in the World's GDP per capita, a depreciation of the national currency, and a decline of relative domestic prices do help boost tourism demand. The World's GDP per capita is more important when explaining arrivals, but relative prices become more important when we use expenditures as the proxy for tourism demand. We cannot reject the hypothesis of a relative prices unitary elasticity of expenditures. Additionally, we have partitioned our data by income level and by Continent. Results are robust in the first partition, but less robust in the second, although the main conclusions still hold. Finally, we draw policy implications from our findings.     

Tourism development,energy consumption and Environmental Kuznets Curve: Trivariate analysis in the panel of developed and developing countries

The study investigates the relationship between economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, tourism development, energy demand, domestic investment and health expenditures with an aim to test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in the panel of three diversified World's region including East Asia & Pacific, European Union and High income OECD and Non-OECD countries. The study covers the period of last nine years i.e. 2005–2013. The study used the principal component analysis (PCA) to construct tourism development index which is the amalgamation of number of tourists' arrivals, tourism receipts and international tourism expenditures. The results validate the inverted U-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and per capita income in the region. The results further substantiate the following causal relationships i.e. i) tourism-induced carbon emissions, ii) energy-induced emissions, iii) investment – induced emissions, iv) growth led tourism, v) investment led tourism and vi) health led tourism development in the region.     

Shifting patterns and determinants of Asia-pacific tourism to Australia, 1990–2010

Australia is an increasingly important international holiday destination. Especially travel demand from Asia-Pacific countries has increased, which has led Australian policy-makers to believe the Asia-Pacific region will remain the largest growth market for holiday tourists. This article first presents an overview of the evolution and shifting geographical patterns of Asia-Pacific tourism to Australia between 1990 and 2010, and relies on this to explore the major determinants underlying these changes using a bootstrapped loglinear multiple regression analysis. Results indicate that income (GDP per capita) remains the most important factor explaining tourism demand, albeit that the Australian holiday market is becoming increasingly mature. Distance, as a proxy for travel costs, has large negative elasticity that has slightly increased over time as the effects of air transport liberalization have been off-set by oil prices’. The paper is concluded with an outlook on some possible opportunities and challenges for future tourism demand to Australia.     

Assessing the importance of international tourism for the Turkish economy: A social accounting matrix analysis

The international tourism sector has grown rapidly in Turkey since the 1980s and Turkey ranks among the top ten countries in terms of tourist arrivals and receipts. Previous studies on international tourism in Turkey are partial equilibrium studies which emphasized the importance of the sector for foreign exchange earnings, employment creation, and economic growth. The social accounting matrix (SAM) modeling approach is superior to partial equilibrium analysis as it takes into account intersectoral linkages. This paper analyzes the contribution of international tourism to the Turkish economy using two SAMs for 1996 and 2002, respectively. Two analyses are conducted using the SAM impact model: (i) sectoral comparison of GDP elasticities, and (ii) SAM impact analysis of international tourism on output, value-added, and employment. The results show that the GDP elasticity of international tourism is relatively low and the impact of foreign tourist expenditures on domestic production, value-added (GDP), and employment in Turkey are modest. The results imply the possibility of leakage of foreign tourist expenditures out of the economy.     

On the empirical relationship between tourism and economic growth

This paper studies the dynamics of economic growth and tourism evolution for 80 countries during the period 1995–2016. The variables representing economic and tourism growth are growth rates of per capita GDP and international tourist arrivals per inhabitant respectively. Using the concept of economic regime, the paper introduces a notion of distance between the dynamical paths of different countries. Then, a Minimal Spanning Tree and a Hierarchical Tree are constructed to detect groups of countries sharing similar performance. The two main clusters we find can be interpreted as two groups of countries with high and low performance in the tourism sector and are coherent with the business cycle. The evolution of such clusters shows three main stylized facts: certain countries move across clusters; the low performance cluster tends to span, while the high performance one tends to be (more) compact; the distance between the two groups increases in time.     

中国城市居民旅游需求差异分析

旅游需求分析是旅游开发的基础。旅游需求差异分析有利于认识旅游市场特征。本文认为差异问题可以转化为分类问题，于是利用人工神经网络的Kohonen网络对中国39个城市居民的旅游需求分类，然后考虑了收入、旅游消费占收入的比例、区域旅游供给强度和交通条件4个因素，对各个类型的城市居民旅游需求特征信息进行了进一步的分析。得到的认识是：(1)从出游率和消费两方面衡量中国城市阃居民的旅游需求的确存在类型差别，并且在不同程度上与人均收入有相关关系。(2)人均收入与旅游需求存在相关性，但是不同地区(城市)的人均收入只影响其部分旅游需求。     

张家界旅游城市化响应强度与机制分析

文章提出旅游城市化响应强度的概念,并将旅游城市化响应强度周期划分为快速、平稳、创新和分化4个阶段,以旅游城市化响应强度系数为测度旅游城市响应强度的变量指标,利用张家界1989～2010年相关统计数据,分析了张家界旅游城市化响应强度的时序演变特征,并进一步从静态和动态分析了张家界旅游城市化响应强度的影响机制。结果发现:1989～2010年张家界旅游城市化响应强度呈现出上升趋势,并呈现阶段性演变特征;从静态来看,张家界人均GDP、人均全社会固定资产投资、人均建成市区面积和市域旅游开发强度与旅游城市化响应系数存在正相关关系,相关系数分别为0.9026、0.8841、0.8405和0.7928;从动态来看,对旅游城市化有影响的因素按照影响大小排序为:人均GDP>人均建成市区面积>人均全社会固定资产投资>市域旅游开发强度。     

The long-run impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows

Notwithstanding the systematic inclusion of an exchange rate variable of some form in studies examining international tourism flows, hardly any research has been carried out to test for a possible exchange rate regime effect. Drawing from recent advances in exchange rate regime classifications, this paper begins to fill this gap by investigating the impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows. The study employs a system generalized methods of moments (SYS-GMM) estimation for tourist arrivals on a panel of 27 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non OECD countries for the period 1980–2011. The results identify multiple exchange rate regime effects and support the importance of maintaining a relatively stable exchange rate to attract international tourist arrivals.     

Visitor spending and economic impacts of heritage tourism: a case study of the Silos and Smokestacks National Heritage Area

Heritage is regarded as one of the most significant and fastest growing components of tourism. The development of heritage tourism as a generator of income besides the enhancement of community pride and identity has emerged as an objective of both heritage sites and tourism planning. The discretionary nature of expenditures in heritage tourist places makes it crucial to understand visitor spending pattern. This is key in demonstrating the economic contribution to the community for the tourism planners. This presentation is based on an intercept survey of travelers to the Silos and Smokestacks National Heritage Area (SSNHA), comprising 37 counties in Northeast Iowa. Visitor spending pattern is discussed among four categories of heritage sites in the SSNHA: farms, museums, parks and gardens, and businesses. IMPLAN Input–Output Model is utilized to generate the direct, indirect and induced economic impact in the area.     

出境旅游需求的影响因素--兼论发展中经济体与发达经济体的异同

根据微观经济学的需求理论,结合相关研究进展,文章构建了包括基本经济因素（收入和相对价格）、对外开放度、旅游业发展水平、人口统计特征、突发事件等变量在内的出境旅游需求模型,以74个国家/地区1995—2013年的数据为样本,分析了发达经济体和发展中经济体出境旅游需求影响因素的总体特征与异同。结果表明,收入和价格是影响出境旅游需求的决定性因素,对外开放度、旅游业发展水平、人口统计特征及突发事件等其他因素对出境旅游需求同样具有一定的影响。其中,收入、价格以及产业发展水平对发展中经济体出境旅游需求的影响作用相对更大,而对外开放度和人口统计特征（就业水平、年龄结构和受教育水平）对发达经济体出境旅游需求的影响更加显著。     

出境旅游、服务贸易与经济发展水平关系的国际比较

出境旅游是经济发展到一定阶段的必然产物.但当前学术界关于出境旅游的发展对服务贸易的影响存在争议.利用44个主要旅游国家与地区的面板数据,本文发现出境旅游率随人均GDP呈指数上升,整体上看我国还远没有到出境旅游爆发增长的阶段;由于出境旅游与人口规模负相关的大国效应影响,我国出境旅游长期将自动保持在一个温和的范围内.根据趋势分析本文还发现,出境旅游的增长速度将会高于入境旅游的增长速度,期望通过入境旅游的进一步增长弥补出境旅游的外汇与消费漏出缺乏国际经验的支持.根据对33个国家和地区截面数据的分析.本文发现随着经济发展水平的提高,对外贸易中入境旅游地位下降与出境旅游地位的上升是国际普遍规律,这不仅反映了国民生活水准的提高,也是产业结构升级与外贸结构优化的体现.为此担忧、采取行动阻碍是没有必要的,甚至可能是错误的.     

Assessing the economic impact of a UNESCO World Heritage designation

Grand Pré Historic Site in Nova Scotia (Canada) is in the process of applying for a United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Heritage Site (WHS) designation. Conventional wisdom is that such a designation would generate public awareness and increase visitation to the site. The goal of this paper is to estimate the impact of a WHS designation on tourist visitation and related expenditures. Various tourism statistics (covering 1990–2008) for Nova Scotia and its only other established UNESCO site – Lunenburg (designated in 1995) – served as data. Regression analysis produced an estimate of the tourist visitation impact that a WHS designation had on Lunenburg, and could be expected to have on Grand Pré. An increase of 6.2% in tourist visitors due to a WHS designation was estimated. Survey data collected at Grand Pré provided average spending per visitor. The economic impacts were analyzed under both a projected and a historical scenario of visitation. Based on its 10-year historic visitation average, a WHS designation for Grand Pré would generate an increase of 3000 visitors per year. These visitors would generate spending of approximately $200,000 annually in the local economy. Such spending would provide a boost to the local tourism industry, which has experienced significant decline in recent years.     

Domestic tourism expenditures: The non-linear effects of length of stay and travel party size

The independent variables length of stay and travel party size are recurrent determinants of expenditures in micro level tourism studies. In most of this research it has been tacitly assumed that these variables have linear effects on tourism spending. This study, situated in a Norwegian setting, questions this approach by explicitly scrutinizing the possible non-linearities in the relationships between tourism expenditures on the one hand and length of stay and travel party size on the other. The empirical results suggest a positive but diminishing relationship between length of stay and tourism expenditures and a convex (i.e. U) relationship between travel party size and tourism expenditures. The study also considers how a number of other key independent variables affect tourism expenditures. Finally, some managerial and scholarly implications are discussed.     

Drivers of Taiwan’s Tourism Market Cycle

This paper examines the business cycle of tourism market (BCTM) in Taiwan. It begins by studying the BCTM based on a Markov regime-switching (MRS) model. The MRS model reveals strong evidence of a regime-switching BCTM with two distinct regimes: a high-growth regime (HGR) and a low-growth regime (LGR), over the period from 1st quarter of 1969 to 1st quarter of 2011. The second step is to examine the driving forces of the BCTM. Specifically, the study identifies the factors that cause the tourism market to stay in the high-growth regime (HGR). Test results show that the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP), growth rate of exports, and inflation rate are significant drivers of the BCTM in Taiwan.     

An initial investigation into the impact of tourism on local budgets: A comparative analysis of Spanish municipalities

The Spanish Federation of Municipalities has, particularly since 2008, been vocal about a “chronic deficit” situation caused by high public expenditures in tourist areas. Within this context, new strategies to increase revenues have been proposed, including the introduction of tourist taxes. This paper contributes to this debate by determining if tourism activity actually has a negative impact on local finances in Spain. To that end, a comparative analysis of budget structures between tourism-intensive and non-tourism-intensive municipalities is undertaken using data from more than 3200 local corporations for the years 2001–2010. The determinants of expenditures, revenues and deficit per capita are identified using a linear regression. The results indicate a direct relationship between tourism intensity and local deficits only in the smallest and largest municipalities, while a beneficial effect is actually seen in the remainder of the sample. In view of this evidence, we recommend revising the existing regulations to allow for municipalities below 20,000 residents to be officially recognized as “tourist municipalities” so that they can benefit from that status. In addition, the option of introducing new tourist taxes should be more restricted in scope and depend upon further evidence of possible cost inefficiency in the affected municipalities.     

Marginal economic impacts of inbound tourism to Taiwan and policy evaluation†

This paper presents the economic impact estimation for international visitors to Taiwan using an Input–Output Model to demonstrate the differences of economic contribution by market segments. Economic impacts are compared based on visitor segments by country of residence and travel purpose. The results indicated that high spenders contributed two to three times more expenses in Taiwan than low spenders. In 2000–2001, excluding airfares, business visitors from North America (US$1,360), Japanese sightseers (US$1,323) and Singapore/Malaysia sightseers (US$1098) were the top three segments in terms of per person per trip expenditure, whereas tourists from Korea with a purpose of visiting friends and relatives spent approximately US$314 per party per trip. Type I multipliers on sales, personal income and value added were similar across all visitor segments. Type I jobs to sales multiplier, however, had stronger variation by segments, depending on the relative composition of different items/services that visitors consumed during the trip. Policy implications are proposed for the Taiwan national tourism policy, “Doubling Tourist Arrivals Plan”, which aimed to increase inbound tourism from 2.7 million person visits in 2002 to 5 million person visits by 2008. It is suggested that multiple indicators, such as length of stay, segment shares, and daily spending by individual visitor segments, should be concurrently incorporated in the policy formulation and evaluation process. Relying on one measurement objective, such as 5 million yearly visits, is inadequate in determining the overall achievement and efficiency of tourism policies.