Estimating earnings trend using unobserved components framework

Regressions for predicting long-term stock returns often use moving averages of earnings as the earnings trend. We show that the earnings trend can be directly estimated using unobserved components models. The estimated trends improve the fit of predictive regressions.     

Estimating aggregate autoregressive processes when only macro data are available

The aggregation of individual random AR(1) models generally leads to an AR(∞$\infty$) process. We provide two consistent estimators of aggregate dynamics based on either a parametric regression or a minimum distance approach for use when only macro data are available. Notably, both estimators allow us to recover some moments of the cross-sectional distribution of the autoregressive parameter. Both estimators perform very well in our Monte-Carlo experiment, even with finite samples.     

Optimal use of futures markets when input and output prices are uncertain

The purpose of this paper is to extend the analysis of the use of futures markets by a competitive firm facing an uncertain market price for its output to the case where both input and output prices are uncertain.     

A 'pricing-to-market' model with unobserved variables: explaining New Zealand's import prices

A model of ‘pricing-to-market’ (PTM) behaviour in import prices is developed for a small open economy to allow for two measurement problems: (i) that neither the marginal production cost of imported goods nor their corresponding (foreign-currency) export price are observable by the econometrician; (ii) that PTM behaviour, if it exists, alters the relationship between foreign countries' export price indices for total exports and the true, unobservable price index. The analysis shows that variations in the measured markup on import prices depends on the degree to which domestic demand is synchronized with world demand, whether bilateral exchange rate movements are due to domestic or foreign factors, and on the degree to which PTM behaviour differs from such behaviour in other countries. Equations estimated for the price of New Zealand (NZ) imports from the US strongly supports the model, and finds that the degree of PTM by US exporters in response to price and exchange rate movements is substantially greater in NZ than the average for other countries. However, the degree of PTM in NZ in response to excess demand is similar to that of other countries.     

Panel estimation of state-dependent adjustment when the target is unobserved

Understanding adjustment processes has become central in economics. Empirical analysis is fraught with the problem that the target is usually unobserved. This article develops and simulates GMM methods for estimating dynamic adjustment models in a panel data context with partially or entirely unobserved targets and endogenous, time-varying persistence. In this setup, the standard first difference GMM procedure fails. Four estimation strategies are proposed. Two of them are based on quasi-differencing. The third is characterised by a state-dependent filter, while the last is an adaptation of the GMM level estimator.     

Estimating the gravity model when zero trade flows are frequent and economically determined

ABSTRACT

Since the 1950s, we have known that the presence of zero-valued dependent variables can seriously bias econometric estimates whether the zeros are included or excluded. Yet the widely-used gravity model is frequently estimated on samples that include large fractions of zeros. An influential paper by Santos Silva and Tenreyro – based on simulations that include no economically-determined zeros – concludes that the bias problems resulting from zeros and those resulting from heteroscedasticity and nonlinearity can be solved using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood (PPML) model including the zero values. This paper begins by adapting the Santos Silva and Tenreyro experimental design to include economically-determined zeros to see whether this conclusion continues to hold. With this design, it finds that alternative estimators have lower bias than PPML. Changing to a Monte Carlo design that replicates the much-higher real-world frequency of predicted values near zero restores the finding of lower bias with the PPML estimator. The results highlight the need for very careful design of Monte Carlo experiments when evaluating alternative estimators of the gravity model.     

Mapping prices into productivity in multisector growth models

Two issues related to mapping a multi-sector model into a reduced-form value-added model are often neglected: the composition of intermediate goods, and the distinction between the productivity indices for value added and for gross output. We illustrate their significance for growth accounting using the well known model of Greenwood et al. (in Am Econ Rev 87(3):342–362, 1997), who find that about 60% of economic growth can be attributed to investment-specific technical change (ISTC). We investigate the role of intermediate goods in their framework and find that, taking into account the composition of intermediates, ISTC may well account for between 93 and 96% of post-war US growth.     

Measuring pro-poor growth when relative prices shift

The theoretical literature on pro-poor growth as well as its application has not paid sufficient attention to the issue of varying inflation rates across the income distribution. Ignoring inflation inequality in pro-poor growth measurements can however severely bias assessments of pro-poor growth. Hence, we suggest simple methods which are able to redress such biases. As an empirical illustration, we use the case of Burkina Faso and the growth incidence curve and poverty change decompositions as pro-poor growth measurements.     

Manufacturing consumption,relative prices,and productivity

I study the patterns of manufacturing consumption expenditures across a broad set of countries that differ in their level of development using disaggregated expenditure and price data. The relative price of manufacturing tends to decline with income and the real share rises with income, particularly for countries in the top half of the income distribution. I find that the nominal expenditure share of manufacturing displays a hump-shape pattern with respect to the level of income per capita. I document that the income elasticities of the relative price of individual manufacturing categories lie in a wide range. However, since most categories have a negative elasticity, the average elasticity for manufacturing is negative. In addition, most aggregations of individual categories, regardless of the criteria used, yield manufacturing sub-sectors that feature a negative income elasticity of its relative price and the variation across income in nominal expenditure shares tends to mask a larger variation across income in real shares. Using a standard development accounting framework, I report large differences in productivity across countries for manufacturing categories. I also find some differences in productivity across countries for manufacturing sub-sectors, but these differences are smaller than the differences between manufacturing and services and considerably smaller than the differences across individual manufacturing categories.     

Portfolio choice,consumption and welfare when rates of return are related to prices of consumer goods

This paper generalizes the two period model of portfolio selection under uncertainty by decomposing the aggregate consumption in each period into several goods, the prices of some of which are positively related to rates of return on some assets. The effect of these relations on the choice of portfolio is analyzed. The effects on the chosen portfolio of a lateral translation and of a mean preserving increase in the risk of the distributions of the random variables are analyzed. A generalization of the Hicks compensation to the case where the prices of consumer goods are positively related to rates of return on assets is offered and welfare implications are drawn.     

Estimating matching functions when recruiting intensity matters

The article estimates matching functions – the relationships between new hires, job vacancies and unemployment – using monthly time series data for Sweden. The data contain rich information on types of job vacancies which provides information on firms’ recruiting efforts. The analysis shows that the aggregate flow of new hires is well explained by an augmented version of a standard matching function that incorporates data on firms’ recruiting intensity.     

Assessing productivity changes in UK hospitals reflecting technology and input prices

In this study Malmquist productivity indexes are used to evaluate the performance of acute hospitals in the UK over the period after the introduction of the internal market in the National Health Service in 1991. The indexes are computed using nonparametric programming, known as Data Envelopment Analysis, and they are decomposed into multiple component measures to give insights into the trends in hospital performance. Overall it is found that productivity regressed in the year after the reforms but progressed thereafter so that overall there was a net progress both as far as the inputs and costs are concerned. Productivity progress is mainly due to overall efficiency progress, which in turn is mostly attributed to allocative efficiency improvements. Technical change resulted in a small reduction in the amount of inputs used but also at higher production costs, because of a worsening in the match between input mixes and relative input prices. However, it is suggested that the gains in productivity are not high enough to argue that the internal market has had a significant impact on productivity. Finally, it is argued that the methodologies employed here can be a valuable evaluative and managerial tool in the context of the new NHS reforms about to be introduced.     

What color are commodity prices? A fractal analysis

Commodity price behavior holds much interest not only because these markets are affected by waves of speculative activity similar to security markets but more so that these commodities are linked to industries which purchase them and developing country producers which supply them. Commodity spot and future prices have thus been studied extensively. This research extends this work by employing recent fractal approaches to evaluate how the apparent random movements associated with short term behavior can also persist when examining long run behavior. We thus test for the presence of a persistent and finite variance component (i.e. long memory stationary process) as opposed to an infinite variance component (i.e. short memory nonstationary process) in a selected group of international commodity price series. Both fractal and persistent dependence hypotheses and test statistics have been employed. Estimates made of the power law exponent and of the nonintegral or fractional exponent suggest generating processes which are closer to black noise than to white, pink or brown noise. First version received: October 1997/Final version received: April 2000     

Regulating collateral-requirements when markets are incomplete

In this paper we examine the effects of default and collateral on risk sharing. We assume that there is a large set of assets which all promise a risk less payoff but which distinguish themselves by their collateral requirements. In equilibrium agents default, the assets have different payoffs, and there are as many linearly independent assets available for trade as there are states of the world. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for equilibria to be Pareto-efficient in the presence of uncertainty. We explore some examples for which the collateral equilibrium allocation is identical to the Arrow–Debreu allocation, either when agents have a high preference for the durable good, or when the endowment distribution of the durable good is relatively homogeneous. We examine a series of examples to understand which collateral-levels prevail in equilibrium and under which conditions there is scope for regulating margin-requirements, that is, restricting the sets of tradable assets through government intervention. In these examples equilibrium is always sub-optimal but regulation never leads to a Pareto-improvement. While the competitive equilibria are constrained efficient, there do exist regulations which make large groups of agents in the economy better off. These regulations typically restrict all trades to take place in the low-collateral loans and benefit the poor and the rich agents in the economy through their effects on the equilibrium interest rate and the equilibrium prices of the durable goods.