An interval fuzzy chance-constrained programming model for sustainable urban land-use planning and land use policy analysis

In this study, an interval fuzzy chance-constrained land-use allocation (IFCC-LUA) model is developed for sustainable urban land-use planning management and land use policy analysis under uncertainty. This method is based on an integration of interval parameter programming (IPP), fuzzy flexible linear programming (FFLP) and chance-constrained programming (CCP) techniques. Complexities in land-use planning management system can be systematically reflected, thus applicability of the modeling process can be highly enhanced. The developed method is applied to planning land-use allocation practice in Nanjing city, China. The objective of the IFCC-LUA is maximizing net benefit from LUA system and the main constraints include investment constraints, land suitability constraints, water/power consumption constraints and wastewater/solid waste capacity constraints. Modeling results indicate that desired system benefit will be between [1.34, 1.74] × 10¹² yuan under the minimum violating probabilities; the optimized areas of commercial land, industrial land, agricultural land, transportation land, residential land, water land, green land, landfill land and unused land will be [290, 393] hm², [176, 238] hm², [3245, 4390] hm², [126, 170] hm², [49, 66] hm², [1241, 1679] hm², [102, 138] hm², [7, 10] hm² and [178, 241] hm². They can be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help decision makers identify desired land use policies under various system-reliability constraints of economic development requirement and environmental capacity of pollutant. Tradeoffs between system benefits and constraint violation risks can also be tackled.     

A conceptual framework and its software implementation to generate spatial decision support systems for land use planning

In a context where several sectors of society compete for space, land use types must be carefully designed and spatially allocated to guarantee a sufficient level of relevant ecosystem services (ES) in a territory of interest. In this respect, contemporary land use planning involves multiple, often conflicting objectives and criteria. Consequently, major benefits can be expected from spatial decision support systems (sDSS) designed to deal with complex spatial allocation problems.This paper presents the generic conceptual framework ‘OSMOSE’ and its free and open source software implementation, for the generation of specific sDSSs for spatial land use planning. The specific sDSSs generated with OSMOSE are meant to (i) identify land units which meet multiple predefined ES-attribute values for a specific land use type (LUT) and (ii) rank land units for a given LUT according to these multiple ES-attributes. A complementary purpose is to (i) identify and (ii) rank LUTs for a given land unit. Whereas ‘identification’ is done by means of a threshold query, ‘ranking’ is based on the Iterative Ideal Point Thresholding (IIPT) method. The proposed framework is extremely flexible as it can accommodate differentially weighted, continuous and/or ordinal attributes with, for the latter, equal or unequal number of classes, alternative land unit definitions and land use types. Moreover, assessments cannot only be made using ES-levels for the land unit/LUT combinations but also in terms of changes in ES-levels after a particular change of LUT.The OSMOSE framework is illustrated by means of the specific sDSS BoLa which is generated to support land use planning in the region of Flanders (Belgium) with focus on soil protection. Four cases are presented in which the decision support varies between the available approaches (threshold – selection, threshold – ranking, IIPT – selection, IIPT – ranking).     

Impacts of land use and amenities on public transport use,urban planning and design

Various land-use configurations are known to have wide-ranging effects on the dynamics of and within other city components including the transportation system. In this work, we particularly focus on the complex relationship between land-use and transport offering an innovative approach to the problem by using land-use features at two differing levels of granularity (the more general land-use sector types and the more granular amenity structures) to evaluate their impact on public transit ridership in both time and space. To quantify the interdependencies, we explored three machine learning models and demonstrate that the decision tree model performs best in terms of overall performance—good predictive accuracy, generality, computational efficiency, and “interpretability”. Results also reveal that amenity-related features are better predictors than the more general ones, which suggests that high-resolution geo-information can provide more insights into the dependence of transit ridership on land-use. We then demonstrate how the developed framework can be applied to urban planning for transit-oriented development by exploring practicable scenarios based on Singapore's urban plan toward 2030, which includes the development of “regional centers” (RCs) across the city-state. Results show an initial increase in transit ridership as the amount of amenities is increased. This trend, on the other hand, eventually reverses (particularly during peak hours) with continued strategic increase in amenities; a tipping point at 55% increase is identified where ridership begins to decline and at 110%, the predicted ridership begins to fall below current levels. Our in-silico experiments support one of the medium-term land-use transport goals of stakeholders—to alleviate future strains in the transportation system of Singapore through the development of RCs. The model put forward can serve as a good foundation in building decision-support tools that can assist planners in better strategizing and planning land-use configurations, in particular the amenity resource distribution, to influence and shape public transportation demand.     

Public health in linkage to land use: Theoretical framework,empirical evidence,and critical implications for reconnecting health promotion to land use policy

The increasing health burdens pose great challenge for planners and policy makers to create a more livable city. Recent literature has linked land use to a wide range of illness and death causes in developed nations. It therefore requires evidence-driven and replicable frameworks to inform land use decisions that integrate with health promotion. This paper proposes a theoretical framework for the mechanistic links between neighborhood land use and public health; and then quantifies their associations at district level, using the case of Shenzhen in developing China. Data for 15 health indicators in 2010 are collected at district level; and a set of standardized land use variables (individual land use type, general land use mix, and physical street conditions) are proposed to comprehensively reflect the neighborhood land use characteristics. Spatial regression is employed to analyze the relationships between health outcomes and land use variables. Results show that the land use exploratory variables vary with health indicators, but several key land use determinants are identified: green land abundance, green land morphology, institutional land proximity, industrial land proximity, blue land abundance, street walkability and street connectivity. Structural equation modeling is further applied to examine the possible mediators and it demonstrates that the casual pathways between land use and public health are quite complex. The developed set of standardized land use variables can serve as practical tools to facilitate land use decisions with health considerations. In practice, several complexities at governance levels challenge the efforts to reconnect land use policies and public health promotion. We put forward three useful solutions to enhancing health connection with land use policy across different international settings. This study captures the nuanced health disparities varied with districts and indicators, and therefore produces some more generalized knowledge that ultimately helps develop land use policies aimed at promoting public health at home and abroad.     

土地利用规划中土地利用空间结构和布局研究进展

土地利用空间结构和布局是土地利用规划工作中的关键所在,是决定土地利用规划是否科学合理的重要步骤;开展土地利用空间结构和布局优化研究有利于促进土地资源利用的集约高效,有利于新一轮的土地利用规划修编的编制和实施;综述了目前我国土地利用空间布局相关理论的研究进展,回顾了土地利用空间布局所采取的主要技术和手段,对我国土地利用空间结构和布局研究进行了展望;研究表明：我国土地利用空间布局理论研究有了长足进展,但还未形成严密的科学理论体系;在研究视角上,多注重耕地和基本农田保护,在“统筹兼顾”“以人为本”“理性发展”等方面应加强;在研究方法上,应加强现代数学模型与计算机空间模拟等方法在土地利用规划布局中的应用研究,加强参与式土地利用规划理论和方法研究,与传统的规划研究方法和手段相结合,形成客观、准确、科学的土地利用规划技术体系。     

An interactive land use transition agent-based model (ILUTABM): Endogenizing human-environment interactions in the Western Missisquoi Watershed

Forest Transition Theory (FTT) suggests that reforestation may follow deforestation as a result of and interplay between changing social, economic and ecological conditions. We develop a simplistic but empirically data driven land use transition agent-based modeling platform, interactive land use transition agent-based model (ILUTABM), that is able to reproduce the observed land use patterns and link the forest transition to parcel-level heuristic-based land use decisions and ecosystem service (ES). The ILUTABM endogenously links landowners’ land use decisions with ecosystem services (ES) provided by the lands by treating both lands and landowners as interacting agents. The ILUTABM simulates both the land use changes resulting from farmers’ decision behaviors as well as the recursive effects of changing land uses on farmers’ decision behaviors. The ILUTABM is calibrated and validated at 30 m × 30 m spatial resolution using National Land Cover Data (NLCD) 1992, 2001 and 2006 across the western Missisquoi watershed, which is located in the north-eastern US with an estimated area of 283 square kilometers and 312 farmers farming on 16% of the total Missisquoi watershed area. This study hypothesizes that farmers’ land use decisions are made primarily based on their summed expected utilities and that impacts of exogenous socio-economic factors, such as natural disasters, public policies and institutional/social reforms, on farmers’ expected utilities can significantly influence the land use transitions between agricultural and forested lands. Monte Carlo experiments under six various socio-economic conditions combined with different ES valuation schemes are used to assess the sensitivities of the ILUTABM. Goodness-of-fit measures confirm that the ILUTABM is able to reproduce 62% of the observed land use transitions. However, the spatial patterns of the observed land used transitions are more clustered than the simulated counterparts. We find that, when farmers value food provisioning Ecosystem Services (ES) more than other ES (e.g., soil and water regulation), deforestation is observed. However, when farmers value less food provisioning than other ES or they value food provisioning and other ES equally, the forest transition is observed. The ILUTABM advances the Forest Transition Theory (FTT) framework by endogenizing the interactions of socio-ecological feedbacks and socio-economic factors in a generalizable model that can be calibrated with empirical data.     

Factors affecting municipal land use cooperation

This paper evaluates the factors affecting voluntary municipal land use cooperation in Michigan where neither substantial mandates nor incentives for such cooperation exist. Cooperation is conceptualized as the formality of land use cooperation. This paper uses quantitative data obtained through surveys of chief elected officials and finds that the extent of internal municipal support for cooperation, whether elected officials anticipate benefits from cooperation, and the effectiveness of regional institutions at providing supportive services for cooperation have positive impacts on the formality of land use cooperation. The amount of cooperation on services and a regional cooperative culture impact the formality of land use cooperation negatively.     

土地利用规划学的国内研究进展

从学科的角度出发分析土地利用规划学的研究进展和动态变化,分析其研究特点和不足之处,促进其更好的发展。通过文献查询法、统计分析方法。研究结果表明在不同时期,土地利用规划学的研究类型、研究方法、研究区域、研究主题等都有很大的变化。自1990年以后,土地利用规划学的论文数量、研究机构以及核心作者的数量大幅增加,研究的主题和内容也从单一走向多样化,进入21世纪后研究的主题集中在土地利用规划学的本质探索、土地利用规划环境影响评价、土地利用规划学的结构优化以及新技术与土地利用规划学的融合等方向上,研究的范围也从中尺度向宏观尺度和微观尺度方向发展,土地利用规划学进入了一个新的发展时期。研究结论得出土地利用规划学总体向着良好的趋势发展,但仍存在许多问题有待改善,研究的区域发展不平衡、研究技术先进性与研究成果不匹配、核心作者群没有真正形成等问题;今后需要更加重视区域发展不平衡问题,加强研究技术与研究成果之间的联系,完善土地利用规划学的理论体系,加强实证类的主题研究,加强核心作者的培养等,更好的促进土地利用规划学可持续的发展。     

Assessing land use plan implementation: Bridging the performance-conformance divide

The assessment of land use plan implementation is a contentious issue. The debate centers on whether the crucial evaluation element is conformance of development to plan directives or alternatively, plan performance, i.e. the degree to which the plan is actually used. An analytic framework combining both conformance and performance in the evaluation of (regional) land use plans is applied to the case of the Central District Plan in Israel. Qualitative and quantitative simulation methods are exploited. Qualitative analysis reveals that both performance and conformance are greater than indicated by non-contextualized, numeric evaluations. Additionally, high conformance does not necessarily imply good plan performance. Quantitative simulation suggests that plan performance with respect to land values and densities is initially pronounced as expectations for development are subdued but subsequently tends to wane merging with the counterfactual trend. Findings imply that plan assessment needs to consider the transaction costs of land use re-designation and actors’ perceptions of the probability that plan amendments will be approved. These perceptions differ across actors as a function of the political influence that they wield.     

Socioeconomic drivers of forest loss and fragmentation: A comparison between different land use planning schemes and policy implications

Forest loss and fragmentation, which generate various negative environmental and ecological consequences, have become widespread phenomena across the globe. Motivation to investigate the underlying drivers is essential for land use planning and policy decision making. This paper characterizes forest loss and fragmentation from 1979 to 2014 in the Ningbo region (China) using multitemporal satellite imageries and a set of landscape metrics (area-weighted mean patch area, edge density, area-weighted shape index, Euclidean nearest neighbor distance, effective mesh size and total area); and then quantifies the responsible socioeconomic drivers (economy, social activities, science and technology, culture and policy, demography) under different land use planning schemes (urban and non-urban) using multivariate linear regression. Results show that the two zones present identical trend of intensifying forest loss and fragmentation but differ in changing magnitude and speed. More specifically, forest loss and fragmentation in the non-urban planning zone occurs at a significantly higher pace and magnitude. For the urban planning zone, population pressure, economic growth and fruit consumption are the primary drivers of forest loss, while forest fragmentation is mainly driven by economic openness, cash crop consumption and environmental protection consciousness. For the non-urban planning zone, income increases, fruit consumption and infrastructure development are the primary drivers of forest loss, while infrastructure and tourism development are the major drivers of forest fragmentation. Besides, forest loss and fragmentation in the two zones are both heavily subjected to land use policy. The variance partitioning analysis highlights that the policy driver is the most influential one and economic driver also has strong effect on forest loss and fragmentation in the urban planning zone. For the non-urban planning zone, the influence of policy driver is the strongest and social activity is also very powerful. These results provide compelling evidence that land use planning fails to play an efficient role in protecting forest resources in the Ningbo region. The failure should be attributed to several issues associated with land use planning and forestry governance that widely exist in China. We finally propose some pertinent implications and suggestions for China’s land use planning and forest policy. This study is believed to advance the understanding of the socioeconomic drivers of forest loss and fragmentation. It therefore provides some new insights in land use policy.     

系统仿真模型在烟台市海域使用规划中的应用

本文以烟台市为例讨论了系统仿真模型在海域使用规划中的应用。通过设置14个状态变量、16个速率变量、40个辅助变量,并构建74个系统方程,采用Vensim软件,对烟台市海水增养殖用海、工业用海等6种海域使用类型从2011-2020年各年的海域使用情况进行了模拟,结果表明,系统动力学模型是用于海域-社会-经济动态系统中海域使用规划的有效工具。     

Land use planning and the ecosystem approach: An evaluation of case study planning frameworks against the Malawi Principles

Global land use change continues to undermine the capacity of ecosystems to sustain ecosystem service (ES) flows. Much attention in policy and research has therefore been given to concepts, tools and processes for sustainable land use planning, including consideration of ES and the ecosystem approach. However, there are limited empirical cases or evaluations of ecosystem approach based planning from which lessons can be drawn. The aim of this research therefore was to identify and evaluate existing case study planning frameworks that have the potential to operationalise the ecosystem approach. Based on the Malawi Principles, a new suite of evaluation criteria was developed. This was used to assess case study documentary evidence and evaluate the extent to which the 12 Malawi Principles had been considered. The evaluation also assessed the planning methods/approaches used by the case studies and their potential to help translate the Malawi Principles into land use planning outcomes. Finally, a SWOT analysis was used to structure the main findings. Our results show that the Malawi Principles have been considered across the case studies “fully” or “partially” in 64% of instances suggesting, therefore, that the case studies present a reasonable interpretation of the ecosystem approach. However, poor consideration of biodiversity and environmental limits across the cases highlights the risk of land use management decisions continuing to contribute to the degradation of natural capital.     

县级土地利用总体规划修编的若干思考--以招远市为例

针对县级土地利用总体规划的性质和编制的指导思想,认为招远市上一轮总体规划的实施对建设用地指标管理不完善,不注重耕地质量上的平衡,与城镇总体规划在用地上的衔接力度不够,土地利用分区不尽合理,用途控制难于实现;提出新一轮土地利用总体规划修编要完善建设用地指标管理,确保耕地总量稳中有升,要合理分解规划控制指标,注重与城镇规划的衔接,明确土地用途分区。     

Urban development versus wetland loss in a coastal Latin American city: Lessons for sustainable land use planning

Urbanization is a primary cause of wetland loss in coastal metropolitan regions. Therefore, it challenges the preservation of biodiversity and the provision of key ecosystem services for urban settlements. These services include leisure and recreation, climate and water regulation, water purification, and especially alleviation of natural hazards. Tsunami flood mitigation is a particularly valuable regulating service provided by these wetlands, as recently evidenced during the 2010 tsunami that hit the central coast of Chile.The Concepción Metropolitan Area (CMA), located on the central coast of Chile, has experienced noticeable wetland loss in recent decades. Our study focused on the Rocuant-Andalién wetland, which has been particularly affected by urbanization. This wetland strongly contributes to flood control, and has provided effective protection against the CMA’s latest tsunamis (1835 and 2010). Based on Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), we have quantified urban growth over the wetland, both executed and projected under the Metropolitan Urban Plan of Concepción (MUPC). Recent loss in wetland area by urban growth has been quantified using land use and cover change (LUCC) maps from 2004 to 2014, obtained from the classification of Landsat images. Prospective changes (considering the complete MUPC deployment) have been inferred by combining the MUPC with the 2014 land cover map. In addition, we quantified the observed effect and planned urban growth on the wetland protected area, geoforms and potential flooding based on the area affected by the last Tsunami. Results show that urban areas have increased by 28% between 2004 and 2014, while future increase is expected to reach 238%. In contrast, wetland area has decreased by 10% from 2004 to 2014 and is expected to decrease by up to 32 %. Thus, the MUPC is not contributing to the mitigation of wetland loss nor the preservation of its biodiversity and ecosystem services. Implications for coastal planning are discussed.     

Customary land allocation,urbanization and land use planning in Ghana: Implications for food systems in the Wa Municipality

Food insecurity remains persistent in the Global South due to constraints in food production capacities and intricate land tenure systems that stifle investment in agriculture. In the urbanized regions, uncontrolled urbanization and non-compliant land use systems have further worsened the potentials for urban food production. This research is based on a case study of the Wa Municipality in order to assess the influences of customary land allocation and peri-urbanization on land use planning and foods systems in Ghana using explorative and narrative research approaches. The study identified that customary stakeholders responsible for allocating such lands in the Wa Municipality were indiscriminately converting large tracts of hitherto agricultural lands to urban land uses. Statutorily prepared land use plans are hardly enforced and the planning priorities are on residential and commercial land uses that command higher land values to the detriment of agricultural lands. Weak institutional linkages also characterize the mandated planning and land administration institutions, with a planning system that is reactive rather than proactive in addressing development control challenges across the country. There is the need for planning authorities to adopt participatory land uses planning together with customary landholders and educating them on the essence of comprehensive land use planning approaches. Based on the findings, local governments need to partner landowners to identify and reserve high potential agricultural land for sustainable urban food production.     

Incoherence of urban planning policy in Bucharest: Its potential for land use conflict

Bucharest is a city in transition from its communist past to a market economy, but poor urban planning in is impacting adversely on contested spaces. Lack of effective and strictly enforced regulation and public sector indecision, mixed with problems inherited from the Ceausescu regime, generate many examples of poor urban planning and management. One such example concerns the uncertain future of Văcăreşti “Lake”, our in-depth case study, which is an encapsulated 184 ha wetland whose management has been particularly poor. Employing a mixed methodology of mapping the evolution of the area in question and conducting interviews with surrounding residents and experts in the urban planning or public administration, we demonstrate how lack of an effective planning system and appropriate policies serves to exacerbate conflict between interested parties. Initially there was a conflict between former land owners and authorities, after which developers, surrounding populations, urban planners and ecologists were added. Worse still, the juridical owners of the site are unresolved! Many government agencies and the Bucharest municipality have also compounded the problem by failing to take a lead in future planning and conflict resolution by adopting a passive management approach, which is a recipe for inaction in a poorly regulated land market. Thus, incoherent land use policy has greatly amplified individual and professional conflict both at the local level and city-wide.     

Developing a spatial planning information package in ISO 19152 land administration domain model

Cities establish and maintain Land Administration Systems (LAS) to manage information about the land and urban space. Recognizing the importance of the urban space for sustainable development, information from spatial planning will affect land administration and vice versa. Therefore, every aspect that influences land use, both from spatial planning and land administration should be identified, documented, and standardized as they contain legally binding rules for governments and citizens. The Land Administration Domain Model (LADM), ISO standard 19152:2012, offers guidelines to ensure interoperability in the representation of Rights, Restrictions, and Responsibilities (RRRs). LADM is also capable of standardizing multi-dimensional representation, including the temporal capability for documenting and visualizing all legal aspects of land use or space. This paper discusses how to construct interoperable information between the spatial plan and land administration. We present the standardization of spatial planning information and land administration as subsets of land-related information. The paper proposes the development of a spatial planning package within the existing LADM standard.     

Conversion of agricultural and forest land to other purposes in the context of land protection: Evidence from Polish experience

The protection of agricultural land and forests is a relatively new concept in Poland, and it began with forest protection in the 1920s. The first regulations on the protection of agricultural land were introduced only in the 1960s. Agricultural land and forests received comprehensive protection pursuant to the provisions of the Act of 26 October 1977 on the protection of agricultural land, forests and land recultivation. This legal act set the foundations for the protection of farmland and forests in successive decades.The aim of this study was to determine the influence of farmland and forest protection on spatial planning and to highlight the loss of agricultural and forest land resulting from conversion to other purposes. Legal regulations pertaining to spatial planning and the protection of agricultural and land forests were analysed. The scale of the problem was identified, and future land-use types were forecast based on the data developed by Statistics Poland (GUS). The existing spatial plans (municipal master plan - MMP) were analysed to determine the conversion loss index (CLI) associated with the conversion of agricultural land and forests to other uses. Legal regulations pertaining to the protection of agricultural land and forests were also analysed, and the extent of the relevant conversion measures was determined. The study demonstrated that urban development and the inevitable urbanization of rural areas contribute to the loss of agricultural and forest land that are converted to other uses.     

Implications of land use transitions on soil nitrogen in dynamic landscapes in Tanzania

Land use transitions are rated among the leading sources of greenhouse gas emissions in the tropics. They significantly challenge the functioning of ecosystems and affect multi-temporal stability of greenhouse gases such as N₂O and soil properties. Studies on dynamics in nitrogen balances are essential in understanding greenhouse gas emissions such as N₂O and to manage their impacts on productivity. In this study, multi-temporal Landsat images (1975, 1995 and 2012) were classified to determine land use transitions and potential drivers. The classified images were categorized into degraded and non-degraded lands and eighty sampling plots generated within the entire study area. Soil samples were then collected at 0–15, 15–30 and 30–60 cm depths on each plot and soil nitrogen determined. A regression analysis was developed to determine the influence of forest and grassland degradation on soil nitrogen. Results indicated a significant change in major land use and land cover types. Specifically, there was a decrease in areas covered by forests, woodland and grassland, however, area covered by less dense forest increased. Results also indicated variability in mean nitrogen content between degraded and non-degraded areas and depths. Furthermore, levels of degradation influence nitrogen content up to a soil depth of 30 cm. The present study is relevant in the detailed assessment of the extent of damage and threats posed to biodiversity hotspots in sub-Saharan Africa. These results are transferable to other parts of the world characterized by dynamic ecological transformation.     

Industrial land use planning and the growth of knowledge industry: Location pattern of knowledge-intensive services and their determinants in the Seoul metropolitan area

As the industrial structure is reorganized from manufacturing to one that is knowledge-based, the knowledge-intensive service (KIS) industry has grown steadily. Since KIS industries make a significant contribution to regional competitiveness through innovative activities, it is important to examine what factors determine their location. Since KIS industries reportedly concentrate in and around large cities, wherein the land price is high and vacant land is scarce, land use planning is expected to play an important role in the location of KIS. Therefore, this study analyzes the location patterns of the KIS industry and the factors contributing to the industry’s growth in the Seoul metropolitan area, with a focus on land use planning. According to the result, KIS industries tend to locate in traditional KIS centers in downtown Seoul and new centers around Seoul. While the growth of KIS workers in the traditional KIS centers was stagnant, that in the new centers was much higher. Concerning the factors that affect the growth of KIS employment, the factors related to land use planning significantly influenced the growth of KIS activities. Among them, semi-industrial zone and housing site development areas were influential due to the exclusion of residential land use and land use regulation changes that allowed the development of the knowledge industry center. This shows that exclusionary land use control and flexible measures should be properly applied to accommodate new industrial demands and create space for urban employment.