Does participation in the sloping land conversion program reduce the sensitivity of Chinese farmers to climate change?

Over the last two decades, extensive literature has examined the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of China's Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP), a program that was launched in late 1990s to mitigate the environmental effects of agricultural production and reduce rural poverty. However, little empirical evidence exists with regard to the impact of SLCP on rural households' sensitivity to nature-induced changes and environmental challenges. In this study, household-level data covering the period 1995–2010 from five Chinese provinces were used to examine the effect of SLCP on farmers' sensitivity to climate change. The empirical results show that participation in SLCP significantly reduced farmers' sensitivity to climate change by reducing their dependency on land and natural resources for income, and by diversifying their livelihood options. Spatially, the results reveal that the effect of SLCP on farmers' sensitivity vary across regions. Specifically, SLCP was found to have a ‘rate effect’ on farmers in the Northern regions and a ‘level effect’ on farmers in the Southern regions. Likewise, we found that the effect of SLCP differs considerably across income groups, with the effect on low- and middle-income groups being most significant. The results indicate that subsidy is the main pathway through which SLCP reduces farmers' sensitivity to climate change. In contrast, we found inclusive evidence about the indirect effect of SLCP farmers' sensitivity through the promotion of non-agricultural employment. These results carry major implications with regard to the effectiveness of ecological conservation programs and their mitigation potential through building farmers' resilience in China and ecologically fragile environments.     

Returns to spending on agricultural extension: the case of the National Agricultural Advisory Services (NAADS) program of Uganda†

The aim of this paper is to assess the direct and indirect impacts of the agricultural extension system of Uganda, the National Agricultural Advisory Services (NAADS) program, on household agricultural income. Data from two rounds of surveys of Ugandan rural farm‐households conducted in 2004 and 2007, as well as different program evaluation methods and model specifications, are used to estimate impacts and compute a rate of return. The direct and indirect impact of the program is estimated at 37–95% and 27–55% increase in per capita agricultural gross revenue between 2004 and 2007 for households participating directly and indirectly in the program, respectively, compared to nonparticipants. The rate of return on the program's expenditures is estimated at 8–49%. The program has been relatively more effective among male‐headed, larger, and asset‐poor households, as well as those taking up noncrop high‐value enterprises and living further away from financial services, all‐weather roads, and markets or located in the Eastern and Northern Regions. Policy implications of the results are drawn.     

Effects of payments for ecosystem services programs in China on rural household labor allocation and land use: Identifying complex pathways

Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) is increasingly used in developing countries to secure the sustainable provision of vital ecosystem services. The largest PES programs in the world are embedded in China’s new forest policies, which aim to expand forest cover for soil and water conservation and improve livelihoods of rural people. The objective of this study is to identify the complex pathways of the impacts of two PES programs , the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program (CCFP) and the Ecological Welfare Forest Program (EWFP), on household livelihood decisions, and to quantify the direct and indirect impacts along the identified pathways. We fulfill this objective by developing an integrated conceptual framework and applying a Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM), based on household survey data from Anhui, China. Labor allocation (for on-farm work, local paid work, local business, or out-migration) and land use decisions (i.e., rent in, maintain, rent out, or abandon cropland) for participating households are key to understand PES program effects on livelihoods. Results show that the PES programs have only small direct effects but significant indirect effects via the mediating factor of capital assets. Moreover, group heterogeneity analysis shows that lower-income households do not benefit more than the better-off households from the PES programs, while households with medium wealth increase dependence on agriculture. In addition, household demographics, individual attributes, and geographic settings differ in their impacts on labor allocation and land use decisions. We conclude that CCFP and EWFP would be more efficient in conserving the environment while improving the economic welfare of lower-income households if capital assets were taken into account in the design of compensation schemes.     

The estimation of long term impacts of China's key priority forestry programs on rural household incomes

We use a large unique household panel dataset spanning 16 years to estimate the impacts of three Key Priority Forestry Programs (the KPFPs) in China on household incomes. The programs are the most significant of China's forest policies namely the Sloping Land Conversion Program (the SLCP), the Natural Forest Protection Program (the NFPP), and the Desertification Combating Program around Beijing and Tianjin (the DCBT). A fixed effect model with clustered standard errors is used to identify programs’ impacts based on variation in participation across households and time. In addition to estimating the total impacts of these programs, individually and in combination, we disaggregate the effects by income source, stage of policy implementation, and duration of participation. Overall, the impacts of the KPFPs on rural households’ income vary with time of enrollment and policy stage. We observe that the KPFPs in their initial stages of implementation, and for the early years of household participation, had negative, or at best neutral impacts on household incomes, in particular incomes from land. However, the later stages of the SLCP and the DCBT have tended to raise land-based incomes, and the NFPP has ceased to have a negative effect. This is likely to be in part the result of adjustments made by rural households over time in response to changes in the programs, as well as in market and environmental conditions.     

Household-level effects of China's Sloping Land Conversion Program under price and policy shifts

This study examined how agricultural households involved in China's Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) could respond to expected changes in environmental and livestock policies and changing commodity prices. We calibrated a farm household model using 2009 survey data collected in northeast Gansu Province, China, and examined the responses of four different household groups. Household groups were distinguished based on the resources they possessed for either cropping, livestock husbandry or off-farm employment. We also calculated the opportunity cost of converting sloping land from grain crop production to perennial grass production and included the net value of the replacement crop in these calculations. Our model simulations indicated that subsistence-oriented households were most likely to participate in the SLCP, and that SLCP payment reductions could have large negative income effects for this group. Reductions in SLCP payments increased income inequality among households in the study area. Migration- and cropping-oriented households have fewer incentives to participate in the SLCP. With rising commodity prices, SLCP payments need to rise to avoid that subsistence-oriented households reconvert their land from perennial grasses to annual grain crops. Local government policies related to livestock production are being devised in Gansu as a method to lift incomes, and these policies could also have positive environmental benefits by increasing grass production on sloping land. The introduction of these livestock promotion policies had modest income effects but did not alter the area grown with grasses under the SLCP.     

Impact of CAP Subsidies on Technical Efficiency of Crop Farms in Germany,the Netherlands and Sweden

This paper analyses the impacts of CAP reforms, particularly subsidies on technical efficiency of crop farms. An output distance function is employed and estimated together with an inefficiency effects model to capture the effects of CAP subsidies and farmer characteristics on farm efficiency. The model is applied to FADN data (period 1995–2004) of crop farms in Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden. The study shows that the 10‐year average technical efficiency is 64% in Germany, 76% in the Netherlands and 71% in Sweden. The average annual changes in technical efficiency are 0.1%, 0.4% and 2.3%, respectively. The share of crop subsidies in total subsidies has a negative impact on technical efficiency in Germany but a positive impact in Sweden, although insignificant in the Netherlands. The share of total subsidies in total farm revenues has negative impacts on technical efficiency in all three countries, consistent with income and insurance effects. Positive (negative) change in technical efficiency is mainly attributable to farm size (degree of specialisation) in Germany, and degree of specialisation (degree of subsidy dependence) in the Netherlands and Sweden.     

Experts’ perceptions of the sloping land conversion program in the Loess Plateau,China

China’s Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) is the world’s largest payment for ecosystem services program for improving ecological conditions and farmers’ livelihood. Communicating the SLCP outcomes across diverse stakeholder groups in ecological, socio-economic, political and institutional contexts can facilitate the effective implementation of the new round of the SLCP. Experts from various fields involved in the SLCP have developed good connections with governments, agencies, and farmers; therefore they can play an invaluable role in informing urgent policy changes. This study is based upon 24 interviews with the SLCP experts with the aims of assessing their perceptions of ecological, economic, political and social impacts of the SLCP on the Loess Plateau of China, and then gathering their policy recommendations to ensure that the new round of the SLCP would be implemented efficiently. Content analysis based on the grounded theory is used in present study. Judging from expert-based consensual statements from this study’s interviews, the main concerns about the first round of the SLCP on the Loess Plateau are that the dramatic increase in the farmer’s income and livelihood is mainly from off-farm sources rather than the SLCP subsidy, that equitable government compensation is dependent on the outcome of the SLCP, that the aggressive SLCP causes soil drought which have negative effects on ecological restoration, and that the stakeholders’ interaction could be improved. Based on the analyses of the experts’ interviews, the recommendations are summarised as follows: strengthening the farmers’ environmental awareness and vocational skills, establishing multi-source financial supports and flexible compensation mechanisms, establishing participatory planning that requires stakeholder involvement especially farmers and insisting that scientific studies on the ecological restoration of the Loess Plateau must be shared with local governments and farmers.     

Household‐level Impacts of Dairy Cow Ownership in Coastal Kenya

This study uses heteroskedastic Tobit and Censored Least Absolute Deviations models to examine the impacts of dairy cow ownership on selected outcomes for a sample of 184 households in coastal Kenya. The outcomes examined include gross household cash income, gross non‐agricultural income, consumption of dairy products, time allocated to cattle‐related tasks, number of labourers hired and total wage payments to hired labourers. The number of dairy cows owned has a large and statistically significant impact on household cash income; each cow owned increased income by at least 53% of the mean total income of households without dairy cows. Dairy cow ownership also increases consumption of dairy products by 1.0 litre per week, even though most of the increase in milk production is sold. The number of dairy cows has no significant effect on total labour for cattle‐related tasks. However, in contrast to previous studies, labour allocation to cattle by household members decreases and labour requirements for dairy cows are met primarily by an increase in hired labour. Dairy cow ownership results in relatively modest increases in payments to hired labourers and the number of hired labourers employed. The large positive impacts on income and the substitution of hired for household labour in cattle care suggest that intensification of smallholder dairying can be beneficial as a development strategy in the region if disease and feed constraints are addressed.     

The Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton and Poverty Reduction in Pakistan

This article employs a propensity score‐matching approach to examine the direct effects of adoption of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton on yields, pesticide demand, household income and poverty, using cross‐sectional data from a survey of farmers in the Punjab province of Pakistan. Generally, the findings reveal that adoption of the new technology exerts a positive and significant impact on cotton yields, household income and poverty reduction, and a negative effect on the use of pesticides. The positive and significant impact of the technology on yields and household income is consistent with the potential role of new agricultural technology in directly reducing rural poverty through increased farm household income.     

Rural household incomes and land grabbing in Cambodia

This paper empirically quantifies environmentally augmented rural household incomes in Cambodia and analyzes how economic land concessions (ELCs) affect such incomes. Data is derived from a structured survey of 600 randomly selected households in 15 villages in three study sites in Cambodia, where local livelihoods are highly reliant on access to land and natural resources, supported by qualitative data from focus group discussions. Gini coefficient decomposition, multiple regression models, and propensity score matching (PSM) models were employed to analyze the composition of income portfolios, determinants of major income sources, and the impacts of land grabbing on incomes. Results documented high reliance on environmental income (32–35% of total household income) and farm income (51–53%) across income quartiles; demonstrated the variation in product composition across quartiles and the contribution of each major product to income inequality; and identified the main household characteristics influencing absolute and relative incomes. ELCs were found to consistently have negative impacts on household total income, environmental income, size of available cultivable land and livestock holdings, and increasing the distance to forests. The total household annual income subjects to ELCs were estimated to decrease by 15–19%. While providing some employment opportunities, we find no evidence of positive income effects of ELCs on households in the areas where ELCs are located.     

全面停伐政策对国有林区居民家庭收入的影响

基于2014—2017年对东北、内蒙古国有林区的调研数据,采用双重差分模型(DID)评估全面停伐政策对国有林区居民家庭的人均工资性收入和家庭人均收入的影响。研究结果表明:全面停伐政策的实施对林区居民家庭人均工资性收入和人均收入均存在消极影响;家中有人在其他企事业单位上班有利于促进国有林区居民家庭人均工资性收入和人均收入的增长;从事农林经营不利于国有林区居民家庭人均工资性收入增长,虽然通过获得农林经营收入可以在一定程度上填补工资性收入的减少,但是对家庭人均收入无显著消极影响。因此,建议国家林业与草原局对国有林区居民家庭进行专项资金扶持;转岗分流安排富余劳动力;改变国有林区居民保守的就业观念并鼓励自主创业等。     

The effects of China's Sloping Land Conversion Program on agricultural households

In the late 1990s, China aimed to mitigate environmental degradation from agricultural production activities by introducing the world's largest “Payments for Environmental Services? program: the Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP). We develop a microeconomic Agricultural Household Model, which can model the production, consumption, and nonfarm labor supply decisions of agricultural households in rural China in a theoretically consistent fashion. Based on this theoretical model, we derive an empirical specification, which we econometrically estimate using the Hausman–Taylor method and a large longitudinal farm household data set. The empirical results significantly differ between regions, but are generally consistent with the results of our theoretical comparative static analysis, for example, that the SLCP significantly decreases agricultural production. While the SLCP only increases nonfarm labor supply and total consumption in some regions, these effects could not be observed in others. The recent reduction of the SLCP compensation payment rates generally had negligible effects on agricultural production and off‐farm work and only very small effects on household consumption.     

Impacts in Uganda of rising global food prices: the role of diversified staples and limited price transmission

This study assesses the potential impact of rising world food prices on the welfare of Ugandan households. While Uganda experienced sharply higher food prices in 2008, as a landlocked, food‐exporting country the causes of those price changes were mainly regional and indirect rather than directly transmitted from global markets. Using trade volumes, food prices, and household survey data we describe how Uganda, unlike some other countries, is partially shielded from direct impacts of global food price movements. Although the majority of Ugandans are net food buyers, the adverse impact at household‐level of rising global prices is moderated by the relatively large quantity and range of staples consumed that come from home production. Moreover, several of these are not widely traded. Some population groups in Uganda are vulnerable to rising food prices, however, primarily those for whom maize is an important staple, including those dependent upon humanitarian relief and the urban poor. Only a relatively small group of Ugandan households will benefit directly and immediately from rising food prices—the significant net sellers of food crops constituting between 12% and 27% of the population. In this assessment we do not estimate the level and extent of wider second round effects from these higher prices.     

Economic and Household Impacts of Projected Policy Changes for the Irish Agri‐food Sector

The policy environment for the Irish agri‐food sector could change rapidly in the coming decade. A potentially positive factor will be the elimination of milk quotas in 2015, although a potentially negative factor will be further trade liberalisation and increased import competition. These changes come on top of the move to decouple direct aids to farmers in 2005 as part of the Mid‐Term Review of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy agreed in 2003. This paper examines these reforms and their impacts on the Irish economy and income distribution using a CGE model particularly rich in detail on the agri‐food sectors, differentiated household groups, and agricultural policy instruments including their links to productive factors and households. The results suggest that the past and projected changes in the policy environment have, in sum, a small positive impact on GDP and household income. However, the gains and losses are unequally distributed across sectors and household groups due to the highly differentiated distribution of support and protection. Although all households generally gain from the sequence of policy reforms in the long run, some experience strong adverse effects from particular reforms and in the medium term.     

补贴政策对农户油茶经营供给时间影响实证分析

基于福建省5个县市的216户油茶种植户的微观调查数据,采用截取回归模型定量分析油茶补贴政策对农户油茶经营供给时间的影响。研究结果表明:油茶补贴收入对户主油茶经营供给时间具有高度显著的正向影响,油茶补贴政策很大程度上调动了农户经营油茶产业的积极性;此外,家庭平均年收入、户主从事非农劳动时间、加入油茶专业经济合作组织、户主时间贴现率对农户油茶经营供给时间具有显著的负向影响;具有社会资本、户主懂得油茶经营管理技术则具有显著的正向影响。因此,提出加大不同形式补贴的力度、加大经营管理技术培训的力度、鼓励发展油茶专业合作社、加大技术研发力度的建议。     

Impact of Crop Diversification on Rural Poverty in Nepal

Crop diversification into high‐value crops (HVCs) can be an important strategy to augment income, generate employment, and reduce poverty in developing countries. We study the impact of crop diversification (share of production value obtained from the HVCs) on household (HH) welfare measures in Nepal. We use three rounds of the nationally representative Nepal Living Standard Surveys: NLSS I (1994/95), NLSS II (2004/05), and NLSS III (2010/11). The dose–response function, propensity score matching, and instrumental variable techniques are used to estimate the impact of crop diversification. Results show the positive impact of HVCs on the monthly per capita consumption expenditure and poverty outcomes. Among HVCs growers, HHs growing vegetables have the better welfare outcomes. While establishing the relationship between degree of agricultural diversity and poverty measures, we find that the marginal farmers need to at least derive 35% of the share of revenue from HVCs to escape from poverty.     

Income distribution in rice–growing villages during the post-Green Revolution periods: the Philippine case, 1985 and 1998

This paper aims to examine changes in household income sources and its impact on household income distribution in the post‐Green Revolution periods in 1985 and 1998 in the rural Philippines. We found that there has been a structural shift of household income away from farm in favor of nonfarm labor income sources. This finding indicates that rural development is being led by nonfarm sectors. Such a shift has resulted in an increase in household income inequality as the distribution of nonfarm income has become less equal over time and was markedly more unequal than that of farm income in 1998.     

退耕还林工程对西部农户收入的影响:对西安周至县南部山区乡镇农户的实证分析

研究目的:分析研究退耕还林工程对西部山区农户收入的影响和作用。研究方法:利用西安交通大学人口与发展研究所2008年4月在周至南部山区的农户生计调查数据,建立统计回归模型,分别采用多元线性和分位数回归分析方法,定量分析退耕还林工程对西部山区农户收入的影响。研究结果:参与退耕还林对农户家庭纯收入有着显著的正向影响,尤其是对于中低收入农户,但参与退耕通过户耕地面积和农业劳动时间变化对中低水平的农户收入也仍有一定的负面作用。研究结论:为巩固退耕工程成果,当地政府应提供信息,提高农户的社会资本,积极发展外出务工等非农生产活动。     

土地利用对碳排放影响的作用机制和传导路径分析 ——基于结构方程模型的实证检验

研究目的：探索土地利用对碳排放影响的作用机制和传导路径,为制定土地调控碳减排政策体系提供科学依据,服务于碳中和目标。研究方法：理论框架构建法与结构方程模型相结合。研究结果：（1）农地非农化、土地出让市场化和土地开发强度是作为土地利用对碳排放影响的有效观测变量,我国省际层面土地利用对碳排放影响的总效应、直接效应和间接效应均表现为促进作用,总效应表现为土地利用水平提升1个单位,将促进碳排放增加0.159个标准单位,间接效应明显大于直接效应。（2）土地利用通过城市化、产业结构和经济增长三条路径对碳排放产生间接影响,其中,通过城市化和经济增长对碳排放表现为促进效应,影响大小分别为0.173和0.058个标准单位,通过产业结构对碳排放表现为抑制效应,影响大小为0.101个标准单位。研究结论：建立土地调控碳减排政策体系是推动碳中和目标实现的一项可行的重要手段,一方面可通过国土空间优化、生态红线划定和自然保护地整合等手段减少土地利用对碳排放的直接影响,另一方面可通过调控土地利用方式、规模、强度、结构等减少土地利用对碳排放的间接促进影响,激发土地利用的正向连锁效应。     

新一轮退耕还林对农户收入影响的机理研究 ——基于赣南、鄂北农户调查的实证分析

研究目的：新一轮退耕还林补助资金即将到期之际,分析新一轮退耕还林对农户家庭收入的净效应并揭示其内在机制。研究方法：理论上阐述了新一轮退耕还林政策促进农户收入增长的作用机理,基于赣南、鄂北地区农户调查数据,利用倾向得分匹配法进行实证分析。研究结果：（1）无论是否包含退耕补贴,新一轮退耕还林政策对农户收入有正向影响;（2）退耕林种对农户收入的作用机理不同：种植经济林的农户增加了林果业收入和非农经营收入,减少了工资性收入;种植生态林的农户通过提高工资性收入,进而提高总收入水平。研究结论：新一轮退耕还林加快了农户生计转型的进程。政策实施5年后,农户形成与生态环境相适应且稳定的生产方式,为补偿政策的逐步退出创造有利条件,实现了新一轮退耕还林政策的造血功能。