How to evaluate the effects of climate change on tourism

The aim of this study is to assess the most relevant quantitative approaches to evaluating the effects of climate change on tourism. In recent years, numerous empirical studies have conducted evaluations of this kind, based on different methodologies and perspectives. This review shows that the effects of climate change can first be assessed through changes in physical conditions essential to tourism; secondly, by using climate indexes to measure the attractiveness of tourist destinations; and, thirdly, by modelling tourism demand with the inclusion of climate determinants. The review suggests that, although some methodologies are in the early stages of development, different approaches result in a similar map of those areas mainly affected by the problem.     

Current issues in tourism: Mitigating climate change in sustainable tourism research

This paper adopts a problematising review approach to examine the extent of mitigating climate change research in the sustainable tourism literature. As climate change has developed into an existential global environmental crisis and while tourism's emissions are still increasing, one would expect it to be at the heart of sustainable tourism research. However, from a corpus of 2573 journal articles featuring ‘sustainable tourism’ in their title, abstract, or keywords, only 6.5% covered climate change mitigation. Our critical content analysis of 35 of the most influential papers found that the current methods, scope and traditions of tourism research hamper effective and in-depth research into climate change. Transport, the greatest contributor to tourism's emissions, was mostly overlooked, and weak definitions of sustainability were common. Tight system boundaries, lack of common definitions and incomplete data within tourism studies appear to hamper assessing ways to mitigate tourism's contribution to climate change.     

Impacts of seasonal patterns of climate on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand: Evidence from Aruba

This study estimates the effect of seasonal patterns of pull and push climate elements (rainfall, temperature, wind, and cloud coverage) on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand from the United States (USA) and Venezuela to Aruba. The seasonal patterns were first isolated from the series using the Census X-12 decomposition method, after which the analysis included panel data unit root testing, panel data regression, and Euclidean distance calculation. The results show that both pull and push seasonal factors of climate were relevant in determining the seasonal variations in tourism demand from both countries. The study derives two theoretical propositions: (1) climate is a significant push and pull factor affecting tourism demand; and (2) tourism demand and climate are bounded by intertemporal climate constraints.     

Denying bogus skepticism in climate change and tourism research

This final response to the two climate change denial papers by Shani and Arad further highlights the inaccuracies, misinformation and errors in their commentaries. The obfuscation of scientific research and the consensus on anthropogenic climate change may have significant long-term negative consequences for better understanding the implications of climate change and climate policy for tourism and create confusion and delay in developing and implementing tourism sector responses.     

The Camping Climate Index (CCI): The development,validation, and application of a camping-sector tourism climate index

Camping is a nature-based tourism activity where individuals spend one or more night away from home in an outdoor setting. Inherent in the definition are time and space, as well as exposure to natural elements such as weather or extremes. This study introduces the novel Camping Climate Index (CCI) to explore the impacts of weather and climatic variability on camping occupancy and optimal camping conditions. Daily meteorological data for 29 for-profit camping locations is analyzed and matched with daily camping occupancy data for the tent, recreational vehicle, and cabin categories. The CCI is empirically validated for camping behaviors compared to other tourism indices including the Tourism Climate Index and Holiday Climate Index. This study is the first to create an index using observed camping occupancy data for the three categories of camping matched with daily weather data that also captures the overriding effects of extreme/adverse weather events.     

The effect of climate change on the fall foliage vacation in China

Fall foliage season has been a favorite time for sightseeing activity for centuries around the world. The dates of fall foliage coloration for Acer mono maxim at two stations (Beijing and Xi'an) with more than 30 years of records were collected. Time-series analysis showed a strong overall delay of the timing of the fall foliage vacation season. The trend for later fall foliage vacation season averaged 4–5 days/decade. Regression analysis revealed that the air temperature in September or October is decisive for the annual timing of the fall foliage vacation season. A warming of 1 °C led to a delayed beginning, best date and the end of fall foliage vacation of 5.3 days, 3.5 days and 3.7 days respectively. The beginning of fall foliage vacation season started to delay in the 1990s. Sudden delay in the best date of fall foliage vacation season of Beijing and Xi'an took place in the early 2000s and 1990s respectively. For the end of fall foliage vacation season, an abrupt delay occurred in the early 2000s. This has implications for tourists and the tourism industry with reference to the timing of trips and their promotion.     

Climate suitability for tourism in South Africa

Tourism Climate Indices (TCIs) have been used extensively in the global North to quantify the climatic suitability of tourist destinations. TCIs have very seldom been applied in the global South. This gap in the literature is significant, due to the considerable growth that tourism sectors in the global South have experienced over recent decades. Moreover, many of these countries seldom have the infrastructure to modify indoor climates and effectively mitigate against poor weather. We present TCI results for 18 tourist destinations across South Africa. With mean annual TCI scores for the period 1995–2015 spanning 76.5 for Port Nolloth to 93 for the Pilansberg, the comparatively favourable climatic conditions in South Africa relative to much of Europe and North America is confirmed. There is distinct seasonality in TCI scores for the majority of study locations, yet the dichotomy between the South African summer and rainfall zones ensure a net balance in climatic suitability countrywide year-round. Time trends in TCI scores over recent decades indicate non-significant change for the majority of locations, and all significant trends indicate slight improvements in the climatic suitability for tourism. These results present a promising outlook of sustained climatic suitability of the region for tourism.     

Climate change and tourism: Time for environmental skepticism

Tourism scholars tend to endorse the most pessimistic assessments regarding climate change, despite the fact that it is a highly controversial scientific topic. This research note provides the balance that is missing from the overly alarmist studies on climate change and tourism. Notwithstanding the common notion in the academic tourism literature, recent research provides evidence that the mainstream reports on anthropogenic global warming are vastly exaggerated, and that human-induced greenhouse gas concentrations do not play a substantial role in climate change. In any case, whatever small degree of global warming is likely to occur, its net effects will most likely be positive for humans, plants and wildlife. Consequently, the recommendation to tourism scholars and policymakers is to exercise extra caution in the face of the fashionable belief of dangerous man-made climate change. In light of the current scientific literature, advocating and implementing radical environmental policies are likely to be ineffective, ill-timed and harmful to the tourism industry.     

The impact of seasonality on tourism and hospitality operations in the alpine region of New South Wales,Australia

Despite the recognized importance of seasonality for tourism businesses, there has been a distinct lack of studies undertaken in the past that discuss the impact of seasonality on alpine accommodation resorts, and more specifically that focus on an Australian location. The main purpose of this study was to examine whether or not the Australian alpine accommodation providers and ski operations have been significantly impacted by the issue of seasonality and to determine more specifically, had there been industry pressure placed on them to become all season operations? For this study, a total of 15 semi-structured interviews were conducted with managers of hospitality businesses located in the sub-alpine region of Jindabyne, and nearby alpine areas of Perisher and Thredbo in New South Wales, Australia. Study results indicated that the majority of managers acknowledged the fact that there has been an increase in the number of summer visitors each year which has pressured them to make changes to their operations. They conceded that such activity has served to reinforce a ‘stand alone’ mindset which was still prevalent amongst the majority of the managers in the region.     

Interactions between climate change and the tourism sector: Multiple-criteria decision analysis to assess mitigation and adaptation options in tourism areas

Tourism is one of the most climate-sensitive economic sectors, but also a contributor to climate change. With the effects of climate change becoming an increasing concern, the tourism sector must urgently and realistically respond by mitigating its emissions and adapting tourism businesses and destinations to the changing climate conditions. This work presents a generic methodological framework to plan, manage and implement climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in the tourism context. The methodological scheme is based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for prioritizing available options applicable to a defined tourism area. The proposed framework is implemented for Greece, one of the world's most popular tourism destinations, and optimally ranks 18 mitigation and 16 adaptation measures under 4 criteria i.e. environmental benefit, applicability, cost and social acceptance. The analysis indicates that rational energy use, improvement of energy efficiency and water management/saving measures should be primarily put forward for the Greek case.     

Sustainable tourism planning and climate change adaptation in the Alps: a case study of winter tourism in mountain communities in the Dolomites

A vast body of literature suggests that the European Alpine Region is extremely sensitive to climate change. Winter tourism is closely related to climate variations, especially in mountain regions where resorts are heavily dependent on snow. This paper explores how to effectively integrate a climate change adaptation perspective with local discourses about sustainability and tourism, an increasing priority for policy-makers in the region and elsewhere. It reports on the development and application of a participatory decision support process for the analysis of adaptation strategies for local development of an Alpine tourism destination, Auronzo di Cadore (Dolomites, Italy). This experience significantly contributed to the idea that an efficient combination of modelling capabilities, decision support tools, and participatory processes can substantially improve decision-making for sustainability. The authors show that, in this case study, such a combination of methods and tools allowed for managing the involvement of local actors, stimulating local debates on climate change adaptation and possible consequences on winter tourism, encouraging creativity and smoothing potential conflicts, and easing the integration of the qualitative knowledge and the preferences of the involved actors with quantitative information. This contributed to an integrated sustainability assessment of alternative strategies for sustainable tourism planning.     

A climate change vulnerability assessment methodology for coastal tourism

Coastal and marine environments are among the most popular areas for outdoor recreation and tourism. Coastal areas have also been identified as the most vulnerable to climate change, for example as a result of extreme events and sea-level rise. It will be increasingly important for coastal tourism destination managers to understand their vulnerability to climatic changes and to devise appropriate adaptation. This paper presents a five-step vulnerability assessment methodology for tourism in coastal areas. The five steps include (1) system analysis, (2) identification of activity and hazard sub-systems, (3) vulnerability assessments for the different sub-systems at risk, (4) integration for the destination as a whole and scenario analysis and (5) communication. The framework is illustrated by an example of how it might be applied to Fiji. The paper concludes that a consistent methodology, like the one proposed, will facilitate vulnerability assessments in a range of coastal destinations, allow comparison to be made of vulnerabilities across different situations, provide a basis for more research into specific adaptation measures and assist destinations to develop a more sustainable tourism industry.     

Assessment of natural resources for nature-based tourism: : the case of the Central Coast Region of Western Australia

Resources for development of a nature-based tourism industry were identified and assessed in the Central Coast Region of Western Australia. The assessment framework developed used both qualitative and quantitative techniques to establish levels of attraction, accessibility, presence of infrastructure and the level of environmental degradation. Data were gathered using a checklist approach to quantify characteristics of sites. Resource assessment was completed using matrices with relevant indicators incorporating weighting techniques. Sixty-five potential nature-based tourism resource sites were identified. The attraction diversity in the Region is high, although the resources were associated with poor accessibility, low levels of tourism infrastructure and moderate levels of environmental degradation. Results from this research were presented to government authorities and incorporated into the planning process. This paper highlights some of the difficulties associated with establishing objective resource evaluation techniques for nature-based tourism, as well as key findings from the research.     

Changes in demand for tourism with climate change: a case study of visitation patterns to six ski resorts in Australia

Tourism in ski resorts depends on snow cover which is expected to decline with climate change. This paper explores hypotheses about demand side responses to climatic change by analyzing patterns of visitation in recent years with differing snow cover. Snow cover and visitation patterns to six resorts which differ in altitude and size in Victoria, Australia, were compared between a slightly warm and much drier year (2006, +0.6°C and ?50% precipitation to longer-term averages) to a more typical year (2007) and to nine earlier years. Snowmaking partly offset declines in natural snow cover in 2006, although there were still fewer days with snow on the ground. The number of visitor days was much lower in 2006 than the previous nine years for the three lowest-altitude resorts (?69%), while it actually increased (+10%) in the highest altitude resort where there were fewer visitors (?17%), but they stayed longer. Snowmaking is already critical for ski resorts in low snow years. With warmer conditions, lower-altitude resorts may not receive enough income due to reduced visitation to offset snowmaking costs, while higher-altitude resorts may have a short-term gain, but become uneconomical in the longer term.     

Influences on coastal tourism demand and substitution behaviors from climate change impacts and hazard recovery responses

Climate change impacts can negatively affect tourism demand and, subsequently, local economies by disrupting access and altering physical conditions, including those from adaptation and recovery efforts. Research is needed that helps destinations become more climate ready, including studies of decision factors that influence trip-taking behaviors. This paper presents findings from a discrete choice experiment to determine how physical and economic changes could affect visitation behaviors to a vulnerable coastal destination, the Outer Banks region of North Carolina, USA. We embedded our experiment within an on-site visitor survey to reveal thresholds of negative changes to coastal attributes that tourists are willing to tolerate, and also examined tourists’ willingness to substitute their future trips to the region. Transportation-related changes had the highest relative importance among the four selected attributes. The likelihood of three types of spatial substitution, spurred by not being able to access the destination, were consistently related to residency but less consistently related to place meanings, visitation history, and other demographic variables. Study results can inform climate change planning within coastal zones to minimize negative impacts to tourism demand, such as the need to develop creative revenue streams to maintain resilience in communities that rely on occupancy taxes.     

Tourist responses to climate change: Potential impacts and adaptation in Florida's coastal destinations

Florida, one of the world's most visited tourist destinations, holds one of the most vulnerable positions as a result of climate change. Through a quantitative survey, this study gathered the responses of 432 tourists who had previously visited Florida, with a hypothetical scenario of changed climatic conditions. The examination of the tourist perspective showed the presence of ample sunshine and factors related to beach comfort as the reasons for choosing the destination. In a scenario were beaches disappear and tropical diseases become more widespread, the majority of respondents stated they would choose a different destination. However, respondents would reconsider their intentions if adaptation measures such as reduced prices, coastal habitat conservation and measures to protect beaches from erosion and coastal areas from inundation were in place. The findings suggest that seasonal and geographic shifts in tourism demand could be mitigated by the implementation of adaptation measures at the destination level.     

Mobile phone network data reveal nationwide economic value of coastal tourism under climate change

The technology-driven application of big data is expected to assist policymaking towards sustainable development; however, the relevant literature has not addressed human welfare under climate change, which limits the understanding of climate change impacts on human societies. We present the first application of unique mobile phone network data to evaluate the current nation-wide human welfare of coastal tourism at Japanese beaches and project the value change using the four climate change scenarios. The results show that the projected national economic value loss rates are more significant than the projected national physical beach loss rates. Our findings demonstrate regional differences in recreational values: most southern beaches with larger current values would disappear, while the current small values of the northern beaches would remain. These changes imply that the ranks of the beaches, based on economic values, would enable policymakers to discuss management priorities under climate change.     

Impact of climate-related changes to the timing of autumn foliage colouration on tourism in Japan

This study introduces plant phenophase as a “bridge” to assessing the impact of climate change on autumn foliage viewing tourism in Japan. The results showed that from 1978 to 2016, the autumnal foliage colouration of four cities in Japan was delayed, the duration of the autumnal leaf discolouration was significantly shortened, and only one city experienced a significant delay in leaf-falling. The delay in the autumn foliage colouration and leaf-falling periods on average increase the December maple viewing tourism volume by 3.64% and 3.02%, respectively. The impact on autumn maple foliage viewing tourism volume also has a 1-year delay effect, and the maple foliage phenophase of different cities have significantly varied influence on maple foliage viewing tourism volume. Overall, the change in the timing of maple leaf discolouration has been advantageous to the Japanese maple tourism industry.     

A review of tourism and climate change mitigation: The scales,scopes, stakeholders and strategies of carbon management

Tourism needs to reduce emissions in line with other economic sectors, if the international community's objective of staying global warming at 1.5°-2.0 °C is to be achieved. This will require the industry to half emissions to 2030, and to reach net-zero by mid-century. Mitigation requires consideration of four dimensions, the Scales, Scopes, Stakeholders and Strategies of carbon management. The paper provides a systematic review of these dimensions and their interrelationships, with a focus on emission inventory comprehensiveness; allocation principles at different scales; clearly defined responsibilities for decarbonization; and the identification of significant mitigation strategies. The paper concludes that without mitigation efforts, tourism will deplete 40% of the world's remaining carbon budget to 1.5 °C. Yet, the most powerful decarbonization measures face major corporate, political and technical barriers. Without worldwide policy efforts at the national scale to manage the sector's emissions, tourism will turn into one of the major drivers of climate change.     

Human resources in tourism: Still waiting for change

This paper reviews key themes that impact on the role and management of human resources in tourism (primarily relating to work and employment) and assesses whether the past 20 years provides evidence of significant change within the sector. The paper considers the status of work in tourism and reflects upon the impact that key environmental developments have had upon employment—the practice of human resource management in contemporary tourism; the impact of global and social forces on perceptions of work and careers; the impact of ICT on work and employment in tourism; changing interpretations of skills within tourism; and the increasingly diverse nature of the tourism workforce in developed countries. Conclusions are drawn which point to a “hung jury” in considering whether change in the tourism workplace, over the review timeframe, has been ephemeral or more fundamental.