The Perverse Effect of Debt Tax Benefits on Firm Investment Decisions

In this paper we question the idea that the deduction of debt interest is always an effective policy instrument to spur firm investment. We analyse the investment decision in presence of a borrowing constraint on the amount of debt that the firm can raise. We show that if the debt interest rate is decreasing in the firm's capital accumulation and another financial resource more expensive than debt is available (at least for levels of debt lower than the upper bound), then the deduction of the debt interest from taxes on capital income may reduce firm investment. This theoretical result is relevant for economic policy decisions when financial intermediaries are not willing to finance beyond a certain threshold but firms have access to other sources of finance.     

The impact of government debt on the long-run natural real interest rate – a quantitative evaluation

Persistently low natural real interest rates are a problem for monetary policy and financial stability. I analyse to what extent a permanent increase in government debt that is financed by higher taxes could raise the long-run natural real interest rate. As a measurement tool, I use an incomplete markets model with capital and government bonds. Increasing the public debt/GDP ratio by one percentage point raises the real interest rate by between 0.4 and 1.5 basis points, depending on the degree of inequality generated by the model and the tax instrument used to balance the government’s budget constraint. I also show that the interest rate effect of a change in public debt/GDP predicted by the model is significantly smaller than its empirical counterpart for the US, due to the fact that the model understates the empirical fraction of households that are constrained in their consumption decision.     

金融生态环境、外部审计与债务资本成本

通过构建金融生态环境、外部审计与债务资本成本之间的理论模型,并选取2008--2011年沪市A股共694家上市公司为研究样本进行实证研究。结果表明：良好的金融生态环境有助于增强外部审计的风险揭示功能,使企业获得较低的债务资本成本;被出具非标准审计意见的企业具有更高的债务融资成本;同时审计师的选择在一定程度上为企业的债务融资成本提供了质量保证。     

Predicting the government's decision to seek a rescheduling of external debt

Drawing on the relevant literature on the link between economic growth and external debt accumulation of less developed countries (LDCs), this study seeks to identify the variables leading countries to experience debt servicing difficulties. Discriminant analysis was used to distinguish between the rescheduling and non-rescheduling countries. The available data are the values of finanical ratios for 75 LDCs in 1988. The common log and sin transformation were applied to the ratios, resulting in variables that satisfied the discriminant function model. Ten variables represcenting debt burden, foreign exchange position and domestic economy situation were found significant in exploring the rescheduling decision. The model can be useful for both the financial institutions and the borrowing countries.     

Financial crises,debt overhang,and firm growth in transition economies

ABSTRACT

We examine the effects of the global financial crisis of 2008 and the European debt crisis of 2011 on the relationship between capital structure, investments, and performance for Eastern European companies. While the existing literature documents how firms’ investments are sensitive to the availability of internal funds and to debt holdings, we further investigate whether this investment sensitivity also translates in different levels of performance, and document that capital structure indeed has both a direct and an indirect effect, mediated by the capital expenditure channel. We show that firms with higher financial flexibility experience higher investments and returns on capital. Over-levered firms instead suffer from a debt overhang condition, forcing them to curb investments, and consequently experiencing lower performance. Overall, we provide evidence on the importance of capital structure and financial flexibility on investments and performance, showing the real consequences of the debt overhang condition on firm value creation. Firms should therefore aim at maintaining adequate financial flexibility in order to be able to pursue future profitable investment opportunities, and avoid the under-investment problem arising from a debt overhang situation.     

NONPARAMETRIC MODELS OF FINANCIAL LEVERAGE DECISIONS

This paper applies nonparametric decision tree models to the analysis of financial leverage decisions. This approach presents three appealing features: (i) the relationship between leverage and explanatory variables is not predetermined but is derived from information provided by the data, (ii) the models respect the fractional nature of leverage ratios, and (iii) each covariate is allowed to influence in different ways the financial leverage decisions of firms automatically assigned to different groups. Based on a data set of Portuguese firms, decision trees are used to tackle both classification (the decision to issue debt) and regression (the decision on the amount of debt to be issued, conditional on using debt) problems. It is found that: (i) two‐part models are the most appropriate specification for explaining the overall amount of debt used by firms, (ii) there are no drastic differences between the results produced by tree and parametric models, although some divergences may arise, and (iii) tree models suggest relationships between covariates and leverage that parametric models fail to capture, especially when the sample size is small.     

INDUSTRY DYNAMICS AND THE MINIMUM WAGE: A PUTTY‐CLAY APPROACH

We document two new findings about the industry‐level response to minimum wage hikes. First, restaurant exit and entry both rise following a hike. Second, there is no change in employment among continuing restaurants. We develop a model of industry dynamics based on putty‐clay technology that is consistent with these findings. In the model, continuing restaurants cannot change employment, and thus industry‐level adjustment occurs gradually through exit of labor‐intensive restaurants and entry of capital‐intensive restaurants. Interestingly, the putty‐clay model matches the small estimated short‐run disemployment effect of the minimum wage found in other studies, but produces a larger long‐run disemployment effect.     

The Finnish Corporate Income Tax Reform and the Financial Strategy of Firms: A General Equilibrium Approach

This paper simulates the effects of the recent Finnish corporate tax reform with a computable general equilibrium model. It shows that the impact of the reform on the capital stock depends on the reactions of firms. If the financial strategy is changed to prefer dividend distribution and share issues, the cost of capital falls and the capital stock increases. On the other hand, if the criterion of financial policy is to minimise the welfare loss of current shareholders, the earlier financial behaviour should be continued. In that case,the induced higher cost of capital leads to a lower capital stock. The overall welfare evaluation of the tax reform is not sensitive to the regime shift: the reform should not have been implemented. This is because the increase in interest income taxation distorts saving decisions, expands the net foreign debt of the economy and weakens the terms of trade.     

A role for preferred stock in the financing decision of a public utility

Summary We have shown that preferred stock has a unique role in the financing of public utility capital expenditures, particulary when returns allowed by regulatory commissions are perceived to be inadequate. From the firm's perspective there is no tax advantage for debt because the commission effectively passes the tax savings through the consumers. If allowed returns on common stock are inadequate and the firm has exhausted its perceived debt capacity, then preferred stock becomes the optimal financing instrument. The regulatory commissions compute the costs of debt and preferred stock so that companies can expect returns to cover payments on debt and preferred stock if the assets being financed are necessary and will be included in the rate base. During extremely bad years when revenues are much less than expected, the companies can delay or miss preferred stock dividends without running the risk of default. The data on new capital sources for the electric and gas utilities indicate that these companies made adjustments which are consistent with the implications of our model, but they did not follow the extreme policy of using only debt and preferred stock when market-to-book ratios for common stock were below one. Regulators have, on occasions, used capital structures for rate-making that differ from actual capital structures, and a utility might be penalized for using an extreme capital structure policy. The main emphasis of regulatory review of capital structure, however, has been on the debt component. One strategy would be to use a debt level that satisfies the regulatory commission and then adjust equity between preferred stock and common stock to maximize value for common stockholders.     

中国资本账户开放进程中跨境证券投资对国内金融市场的影响*

随着中国资本项目开放进程的推进,跨境证券投资对国内金融市场的冲击日益增强。在此背景下,本文首先通过构建考虑了资本市场收益率以及有管理浮动汇率制度的IS LM BP模型对跨境证券投资与中国国内金融市场的相互影响机理进行了理论探究,并基于中国2005年7月—2016年8月的月度数据,运用马尔科夫区制转移向量自回归模型对中国资本账户开放进程中跨境证券投资与人民币汇率、股票市场收益率、短期利率的联动关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明：第一,四者的关联性存在明显的区制特征,区制1主要包括次贷危机时期（2007—2008年）、欧债危机时期（2010—2012年）以及后金融危机时期（2015—2016年）,经济呈现“股票市场收益率较低、跨境证券投资较少、短期利率较高、金融市场波动性大”的状态;区制2主要包括次贷危机前夕（2005—2006年）、次贷危机后的量化宽松时期（2009—2010年）以及欧债危机后的调整期（2013—2014年）,经济呈现“股票市场收益率较高、跨境证券投资较多、短期利率较低、金融市场波动性小”的状态。第二,当处于资本市场化进程较快、金融市场波动性较大的区制阶段（区制1）时,跨境证券投资与国内金融市场的联动关系更加明显。本文研究结论对于我国进一步开放资本市场具有借鉴价值和政策启示。     

Financial Integration and EMU’s External Imbalances in a Two-Country OLG Model

The pronounced increase in external imbalances in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) during the years running up to 2008 is traditionally explained by financial integration through the common currency. This paper examines in a one-good, two-country overlapping generations’ model, with production, capital accumulation and public debt, the effects of financial integration on the net foreign asset positions of initially low-interest and high-interest rate EMU countries. We find that a lower savings rate and government expenditure quota, together with a higher capital production share in the latter can in fact be transformed into the observed external imbalances when interest rates converge.     

Modeling recovery rate for leveraged loans

Leveraged loan has become an import risk contributor to the wholesale portfolio of a financial institution and an accurate evaluation of the recovery rate of leveraged loans is crucial for risk-based decision making by banks. To achieve this, we utilize a simple two-stage model framework conditional on loan and its borrower's characteristics. Under this framework, three kinds of models and two combining mechanisms are studied by using a subset of leveraged loan data filtered from Moody's Ultimate Recovery Data (URD). The in-sample and out-of-sample results show that three-split model with parallel combining mechanism yields more accurate predictions of ultimate recovery rates for leveraged loans. It is shown that the percentage of debt that is junior relative to the issuance in the issuer's capital structure is the most important determinant of the leveraged loan recovery outcomes. Recovery rates for Leveraged loans and for non-leveraged-loan debts are also compared. Empirical studies show that they have different influential factors.     

On the relationship between fertility and public national debt

Public debt and fertility are two issues of major concern in the current economic policy debate, especially in countries with below-replacement-fertility and large debt (which appears further enlarged as a consequence of the recent world financial distress 2008–2009). In this paper we show that, at the steady state, public debt is in general harmful for fertility, in that debt issuing almost ever crowds fertility. The relationship is however reversed if debt is sufficiently low and the share of capital (labor) in the economy is sufficiently low (high). Hence, our analysis would recommend that developed, capital intensive economies (such as OECD countries) aiming at a fertility recovery should reduce national debt, while developing, labor intensive economies, aiming at reducing fertility, should increase (reduce) national debt only if they are debt virtuous (vicious).     

Excessive private sector leverage and its drivers: evidence from advanced economies

The paper provides novel quantitative assessments of the gaps between actual and sustainable levels of debt for households and corporates in selected advanced economies, revealing considerable heterogeneity across sectors and countries. The accumulation of gaps is found to precede financial distress. The paper also identifies key factors that drive excessive debt, separately for households and corporates. For households, excessive leverage is found to be higher in countries with lower interest rates and higher share of working population, but importantly also in countries with rising house prices and greater uncertainty as captured by unemployment. For corporates, debt overhang is estimated to be higher in countries with lower profitability, stronger insolvency frameworks and in absence of thin capitalization rules. There is therefore scope for the use of policy to limit the build-up of household and corporate debt overhang.     

我国上市公司财务困境的预测模型研究

本文以我国上市公司为研究对象 ,选取了 70家处于财务困境的公司和 70家财务正常的公司为样本 ,首先应用剖面分析和单变量判定分析 ,研究财务困境出现前 5年内各年这二类公司 2 1个财务指标的差异 ,最后选定 6个为预测指标 ,应用Fisher线性判定分析、多元线性回归分析和Logistic回归分析三种方法 ,分别建立三种预测财务困境的模型。研究结果表明 :(1 )在财务困境发生前 2年或 1年 ,有 1 6个财务指标的信息时效性较强 ,其中净资产报酬率的判别成功率较高 ;(2 )三种模型均能在财务困境发生前做出相对准确的预测 ,在财务困境发生前 4年的误判率在 2 8%以内 ;(3)相对同一信息集而言 ,Logistic预测模型的误判率最低 ,财务困境发生前 1年的误判率仅为 6 .47%     

Corporate debt and output pricing in developing countries: Industry-level evidence from Turkey

The present study is an application of capital structure theory to developing economies where markets are commonly imperfect. The industry-level data of Turkey is used as a benchmark case to investigate the effects of corporate debt on output pricing, which in return, might have critical implications for stabilization theory. The panel estimations on the major two-digit industries reveal two basic findings. First, short-term debt leads to an increase in output prices while long-term debt has the opposite effect, and short-term but not long-term debt has a cyclical influence on prices. Second, the inflationary effect short-term debt implies a lower capital gain and induces higher prices, while the effect long-term debt implies a higher capital gain and induces lower prices. Given the predominant share of short-term debt in most developing countries, these findings suggest an explanation for inflation inertia on the side of corporate sector.     

Debt reorganization strategies with complete verification under information asymmetry

This paper examines optimal debt reorganization strategies in the presence of agency problems arising from information asymmetry between a firm and a bank during financial distress. In particular, in the structural model, we incorporate complete verification strategies for private information that the firm holds under information asymmetry. We show that under complete verification strategies, the agency conflict because of information asymmetry delays the debt reorganization, leading to a decrease in equity and debt values. These results fit well with the findings of previous empirical works in this area.     

我国中小企业上市公司资本结构关联规则分析

以我国40家中小企业上市公司为研究对象,利用其财务报表数据,总结出中小企业上市公司的资本结构具有资产负债率总体水平偏低、负债结构不合理,流动负债比重极高的特征。进一步分析了企业的资产负债率与负债利息率、流动负债比重和资产收益率之间的关联规则,并比较了样本企业与其所处行业在关联规则上的差异。最后指出:银行应针对中小企业的具体财务指标情况对之采取不同的贷款政策;中小企业应重视资本结构管理,根据其内外财务环境及自身的盈利能力进行资本结构的战略规划。     

Taxes,risk taking,and financial stability

After the global financial crisis, the use of taxes to enhance financial stability received new attention. This paper analyzes the corrective role of taxes in banking and compares two instruments, namely, an allowance for corporate equity (ACE), which mitigates the debt bias in corporate taxation, and a Pigovian tax on bank debt (bank levy). We emphasize financial stability gains driven by lower bank asset risk and develop a principal-agent model, in which risk taking depends on the bank's capital structure and, by extension, on the tax treatment of debt and equity. We find that (i) the ACE unambiguously reduces risk taking, (ii) bank levies reduce risk taking if they are independent of bank performance but may be counterproductive otherwise, and (iii) taxes are especially effective if regulatory capital requirements are constrained to low levels.     

Optimal contract theory with time-inconsistent preferences

This paper incorporates managers' time-inconsistent preferences into the classical DeMarzo and Sannikov (2006) contract model to study corresponding impacts on the optimal contract, corporate financial policies, and the optimal capital structure. The extended model shows that the impatience of the time-inconsistent agent has positive effects on the optimal payout decision which is opposite to DeMarzo and Sannikov (2006) and consequently provides a guideline to tailor the contract between investors and the agent. It also shows in the optimal capital structure, the total debt capacity shrinks with the degree of the agent's time inconsistency, and the long-term one shrinks more. In addition, our model predicts that the agent's time inconsistency not only imposes significant limits on the use of long-term debt but also has great effects on firms' capital structures. Thus our finding can potentially explain observed cross-sectional differences in firms' capital structures.