当代养老保险模式的委托代理机制分析

每种养老保险模式都有自己的委托代理机制，在不同的委托代理机制中，委托人、代理人和政府的作用各不相同，所产生的社会经济效益也有好有坏；构建与市场经济相适应的养老保险委托代理机制政府应定好位。     

New danish bases of calculation in life and pension insurance

Abstract

A committee consisting of actuaries representing private life offices, private pension offices, and Statsanstalten for Livsforsikring (The State Life Insurance Institution) transacting both life and pension business, have compiled a complete set of calculation bases, which have been adopted by all Danish life and pension offices with effect as from January 1, 1966.     

我国房产养老保险制度的探讨

改革开放以来,中国人口年龄结构发生了历史性变化,老龄化程度日益加重.房产养老保险正是顺应时代发展和符合时代要求的一种解决养老问题的金融创新工具,对房产养老保险的制度框架进行分析,是这种创新产品得以成功推广的前提.本文结合我国房产养老保险现状与美国房产价值可转换抵押贷款的发展,设计了我国房产养老保险的制度框架,明确了房产...     

我国农村商业养老保险存在的问题与对策探析——基于完善社会保障体系的视角

本文分析表明,相对于整个农村社会养老保障体系而言,我国农村商业养老保险存在发展滞后的问题,其原因主要是政府部门的相关政策力度不够、保险公司的供给乏力和农民的有效需求不足。因此,本文提出了四个方面的政策建议,以增强保险公司的农村养老保险供给和农民养老保险需求的激励,推动农村商业养老保险的进一步发展。     

现收现付制养老保险风险量化及应对策略

现收现付制养老保险是一种代际转移的制度,其可持续发展的经济学基础为生产力、工资和人口三者的综合增长因素能够维持代际转移,从而保证人们退休后能够维持稳定的工资替代率。这三种因素的波动形成了一定的风险。如何量化和管理这些风险是本文的研究主题。本文将给出代际人口比例和代际工资比例满足的随机微分方程。基于此,考虑在给定缴费比例和工资替代率条件下,养老保险计划出现支付危机的概率分布。进而,为了寻找风险与收益的平衡,研究现收现付制养老保险的VaR。最后,利用中国的实际统计数据,对本文的理论结果给予实证阐述,并提出应对的策略。     

On accounting standards and fair valuation of life insurance and pension liabilities

The actuarial profession is increasingly teaming up with financial economists for a fruitful cooperation on the proper valuation of life insurance and pension (L&P) liabilities. This has been a natural consequence of a recent sharply increased focus on market values in financial reports of L&P companies from regulators, standard setters, the financial press, stakeholders, and others with an interest in the L&P business.

This article provides a financial economist's point of view on recent developments in relation to the fair valuation of L&P liabilities. The role of accounting standards and the background for the international harmonization in this field are first discussed. We then review and explain the concept of fair value and provide a general view on appropriate techniques for estimating fair values of L&P liabilities in accordance with the definition of the concept. The paper also contains a section which briefly reviews recent and quite innovative regulatory initiatives in relation to market value reporting in the Danish market for life and pension insurance.     

中美养老保险制度公平与效率的比较

中美两国养老保险制度的确立大致相差20年的时间,但在其各自的发展演变中却形成了不同的特点。美国建立了比较符合本国实际的养老保险制度,即具有完善的法律制度作保证,覆盖面广且具有多层次,强调国家、单位和个人三方面的责任,社会化和市场化程度较高,较好地协调了公平与效率。以上几方面对完善中国养老保险制度具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Understanding price competition in the German motor insurance market

This paper analyzes price competition in the German motor insurance market since 1994 and looks for evidence to back up a claim frequently found in the trade literature—that there have been two recent price wars in this industry, the first in 1996–1999, the second in 2005–2006. In a first step, we analyze the development of the German motor insurance market and compare it to that of other property-liability lines of business. In a second step the applicability of price war definitions found in the marketing literature to the German motor insurance market is checked. In a third step, a comparison to reference cases from other industries, where price wars have been subject to academic analysis, is conducted to complement the analysis. We conclude that, contrary to reports in the trade literature, the periods of 1996–1999 and 2005–2006 should be considered as times of intense competition in the motor insurance industry, not as times of price war.     

中德保险法中的消费者保护比较研究

《德国保险合同法》和我国《保险法》的最新修改都集中体现了对消费者的保护。《德国保险合同法》订立原则放弃了保险单模式,采取申请模式或邀请模式;全面改进了保险人和中间人的指导义务和信息义务,增强了保险透明度;统一规定了书面的义务履行方式和保险人与中间人的文献资料义务,有助于减少证明困难;确立了投保人的撤回权,在归责原则上放弃了全有全无原则,采取比例规则,极大地提高了对消费者的保护。我国新《保险法》虽然改善了对消费者的保护,但不尽如人意之处仍然很多。《德国保险合同法》的具体制度规定给我们提供了很好的借鉴。     

对德国社会保险制度与政策的回顾和评析

基于德国社会保险发展史,本文着重探讨了保险机制作为社会保障制度核心的形成过程、作用机理和发展趋向。研究认为,历史上德国社会保险制度的两次飞跃凸显了社会保险兼具保险与社会的基本特征,也集中反映了制度选择对这两大特征之间内在矛盾的不断调和。德国社会保障制度体系中的双重内部结构和类型化发展的态势是对上述特征和矛盾的积极应对。结论认为,未来社会保障制度体系的发展演化仍会以保险机制的发展演化为根本核心,进一步明晰和协调现有制度体系下的内部结构,走向维护民生保障和提倡自我救助并重的新型保障制度,进而实现以群体为基本单位的普遍化的社会保障制度。     

农户参与医疗保险行为决策影响因素分析

本文基于中国健康营养调查(CHNS)数据,运用离散选择模型,对农户参与农村医疗保险的影响因素进行实证分析,试图从微观视角剖析影响我国农村医疗保险发展进程的原因。研究表明:年龄、婚姻、工作对农户参与农村医疗保险有正效用,但并不显著;从事家庭手工业和小型商业对农户参与医疗保险有显著的抑制作用;农户的健康自评状况对其参加医疗保险决策的影响不显著。     

保险市场结构与非规范竞争

本文运用产业组织理论和简单的博弈论原理证明,保险企业采用给予折扣等非规范竞争是保险企业经营者的一种理性选择。而具体的非规范竞争行为又与市场需求弹性、保险企业管理水平、承保企业的所有制性质相关。根据对保险市场折扣行为的分析,笔者的结论是监管机构除了对相关行为进行有效监管以外,还要逐步放开费率厘定权、鼓励保险企业进行险种创新并进一步开放保险市场。     

基于战略风险管理模式下的养老保险公司风险管理分析

战略风险管理模式是金融企业比较流行的一种全面风险管理模型。本文在分析养老保险公司业务经营及风险管理特殊性的基础上,应用战略风险管理基本思想,提出了当前形势下养老保险公司风险管理的核心问题,并对公司目前面临的风险类别、风险因素以及风险管控措施进行了分析研究。     

Asset management in the German insurance industry: the quality of interest rate forecasts

Chopra and Ziemba (J.?Portf. Manag. 19: 6?C11, 1993) show that for asset only allocations the return forecasts are more important than assumptions about the variance-covariance matrix of the returns. Following Basse et al. (ZVersWiss 96: 617?C648, 2007) the same holds true for the asset liability management (ALM) of insurance companies. Given the high quotas of bonds in the real as well as optimized insurance portfolios, interest rate forecasts are of exceptional importance. Therefore this paper examines some of these estimates for the European market using techniques of time series analysis. A?set of criteria for the evaluation of the forecasts is presented. While some results seem to be quite favorable for forecasters, others indicate that none of the analyzed forecasts seems to provide relevant information about the future development. There is lot of evidence showing that interest rates are very difficult to predict. Some hints clearly point towards herd behavior among forecasters.     

Portfolio insurance and prospect theory investors: Popularity and optimal design of capital protected financial products

Portfolio insurance strategies are used on both the institutional and the retail side of the asset management industry. While standard utility theory struggles to provide an explanation, this study justifies the popularity of portfolio insurance strategies in a behavioral finance context. We run Monte Carlo simulations as well as historical simulations for popular portfolio insurance strategies and benchmark strategies in order to evaluate the outcomes using cumulative prospect theory. Our simulation results indicate that most portfolio insurance strategies are the preferred investment strategy for a prospect theory investor. Moreover, the analysis provides insights into how portfolio insurance products should be designed and structured to meet the preferences of prospect theory investors as accurately as possible.     

Social protection and private insurance: Reassessing the role of public sector versus private sector in insurance

This paper first discusses the standard reasons why private insurance cannot be expected to function well and why public intervention in or public provision of insurance can improve on private market outcomes. These arguments are based on efficiency but also on equity considerations. Then the paper turns to new developments in modern societies that might affect the balance between social and private insurance. They pertain to the current working of labor markets, to the openness of our economies and the ensuing fiscal competition, and to the crediblity and commitment problems faced by the state. The paper concludes that the public sector will find it less and less affordable to provide both insurance and assistance and recommends that it focus on the latter objective by awarding tax-financed uniform benefits on the basis of specified contingencies.     

On the role of market insurance in a dynamic model

Durables like cars or houses are a substantial component in the balance sheets of households. These durables are exposed to risk and can be insured in the market. We build a dynamic model in which agents have three possibilities to cope with the risk exposure of the durable stock: (i) purchase of market insurance, (ii) buffer-stock saving of the riskless asset or (iii) adjustment of the durable stock. We calibrate our model to the US economy and find a small role for market insurance.

论保险的本质与保险业在金融行业中的角色定位

保险的本质是以资金解决了经济社会运行过程中要素的短缺与需求之间的矛盾,实现了风险的分散和财富的调剂,保障了经济社会生活的稳定运行。从保险的本质出发,明确保险业在金融行业中的角色定位,是保险业实现科学发展的前提。在当前经济金融环境不确定因素增加,行业发展尚不充分的情况下,保险业偏离保障发展方向可能带来潜在的风险。只有坚持保险保障的发展方向,立足于专业化经营,不断创新,进一步加强监管,才能真正实现保险事业又好又快的科学发展。     

Interaction effects between dynamic hybrid products and traditional deferred annuities in the German life insurance market

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - Dynamic hybrid products emerged in 2007 and are now well established in the German life insurance market. In this article, we study interaction effects...