Kongruente Rückdeckung von Pensionszusagen durch Versicherungsprodukte

When a German employer establishes a defined benefit pension plan for his employees, it is common practice in Germany to purchase life insurance policies in order to finance the plan and transfer the risks from the plan to the insurer. A complete transfer of risk can only be obtained by purchasing a congruent insurance policy. The present paper develops a formal definition of congruence of an insurance policy to a pension plan. The definition is applied to a simple practical example. It becomes clear that it is almost impossible to obtain congruence of a traditional German life insurance product to an employer's defined benefit pension plan.     

What is the impact of wealth shocks on asset allocation?

I test the assumption of constant relative risk aversion using U.S. macroeconomic data and analyse the role of wealth shocks in generating transitory changes in asset portfolio composition. I show that the risky asset share exhibits cyclical behavior and it is significantly (and positively) affected by unexpected variation in wealth. Therefore, the empirical evidence suggests that risk aversion is counter-cyclical. I also find that the portfolio share of housing wealth falls when the agent is faced with a positive wealth shock, i.e. housing is a hedge against unfavorable wealth fluctuations. Finally, considering a variety of wealth definitions, the results show that: (i) wealth effects are stronger for direct holdings of risky assets than for indirect holdings, which highlights that investors do not typically trade some assets such as pension or mutual funds; (ii) although significant, wealth effects on asset allocation are mainly temporary as agents quickly rebalance the asset portfolio composition (i.e. there is weak evidence of inertia or slow adjustment in asset allocation); and (iii) changes in expected returns partially explain the variation in risky asset allocation.     

Share prices and pension funding: An empirical test of the joint effect of pension insurance and the pension tax shield

This article examines the joint significance of the tax benefits of pension funding and the value of government sponsored pension insurance in determining the efficacy of corporate pension funding. When the pension tax shield benefits are dominant, additional funding may enhance shareholder wealth. However, additional funding is observed to have negative effects on equity prices when the value of pension insurance is dominant relative to the value of the pension tax shield. When neither the tax or insurance effects are dominant, marginal adjustments in pension funding apparently will not alter corporate share prices.     

Hedge-Fonds als Asset-Klasse: Betrachtungen aus der Perspektive der deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft

The over performance of hedge funds until the current financial market turbulences led to a large number of insurers increasing their hedge funds quota. In the following this asset class is examined and particularly analyzed with respect to its adequacy for an insurance company's asset allocation by focusing on the axiom of safety, as demanded by national law. The problem of survivorship-bias and the Markowitz requirements of normal-distribution and constant correlations among the asset classes and their impact on a strategic asset allocation are studied.     

风险分散与中国混合型基本养老保险制度改革研究

本文从参保人养老投资风险分散角度研究混合型基本养老保险制度设计。通过构建一个两期消费模型,综合考虑参保人所面临的人口结构、工资增长率、养老基金投资等风险因素,本文研究了混合型基本养老保险制度中现收现付制与基金积累制的最优比例,并利用中国数据进行了测算与敏感性分析。研究发现:引入小规模个人账户基金积累制可以分散人口老龄化给现收现付制所带来的风险,中国实行混合型基本养老保险制度有其合理性;但如果要维持40%～45%的养老金替代率水平,中国基本养老保险制度的财务可持续性会面临较大挑战。     

Betriebsunterbrechungsversicherung bei kleinen und mittleren Unternehmen

The business interruption caused by a property claim is an existential risk both for large industrial companies and for small to medium enterprises (SME). It is especially relevant for companies working on a more complex sales and production infrastructure. Statistics show that in case of a large property claim the cost of the accompanying business interruption claim frequently exceeds the property claim. In Germany, however, the share of companies opting for business interruption insurance is much smaller than those opting for property insurance. This is especially true for SME that can hardly cover the risk themselves. The goal of this paper is to analyze the insurance decision for a business interruption policy with a special focus on SME. As a database we use the results of a representative survey among 1802 German SME with up to 100 employees. Our results show that the decision for a business interruption policy is not only dependent on hard factors such as company size and industry, but also driven by the so-called “insurance mentality”, which includes risk aversion, insurance know-how and price-sensitivity.     

Betriebliche Altersversorgung durch Direktversicherungen – Die Folgen der Unternehmensteuerreform 2008 für die Verhandlungsposition von Arbeitgebern und Arbeitnehmern – Aktualisierung des Beitrags in Heft 3/2007, S. 375 ff. –

This paper discusses the consequences of the new German tax regime on the attractiveness of life insurance policies as a possible corporate pension scheme. We analyze those insurances both from the perspective of an employer and from the perspective of an employee. The tax reform decreased their attractiveness, but still it is possible to find agreements which are valuable for both parties.     

Pension benefits, wealth accumulation, and capital market equilibrium: a life cycle hypothesis-based dynamic model

This paper examines the impacts of pension benefits on capital asset pricing in conjunction with wealth accumulation and retirement, and derives and tests a dynamic capital asset pricing model (CAPM) within the framework of a life cycle hypothesis-based dynamic model. The life cycle hypothesis-based dynamic model maximizes the expected utility of the individual's lifetime wealth in a continuous time process. An optimal solution of the individual's wealth path, incorporating the ages of retirement and death, is obtained and, based on the optimal wealth path, an analysis of comparative dynamics is pursued. The dynamic CAPM is then derived from the optimal wealth path; simulation and nonparametric tests are undertaken to evaluate the performance of the dynamic CAPM as compared to the traditional model which does not consider the impacts of pension benefits and the static model that incorporates the effects of pension benefits. The test results suggest that the proposed dynamic CAPM closely states the expected rate of return for a capital asset; that the new dynamic CAPM is preferable over the static model that is preferable over the traditional model; and that the three models considered are statistically distinguishable from one another.     

Zur Modellierung von Rückversicherungsverträgen in der dynamischen Finanzanalyse

In this paper we study the influence of Gaussian dependencies on the payoff of reinsurance contracts and the resulting effects on a non-life insurer's risk and return profile. To achieve this, we integrate different Gaussian dependencies and reinsurance contracts in a dynamic financial analysis (DFA) framework and conduct numerical tests within a simulation study. Depending on the reinsurance contract and the dependency employed, we find substantial differences in risk assessment for the ruin probability and for the expected policyholder deficit. The results have important implications for regulators and rating agencies that use these risk measures as a foundation for capital standards and ratings. Our results extend the findings of a recent working paper by Eling and Toplek (2008) with a detailed analysis of Gaussian dependencies under different reinsurance contracts.     

Accounting of the German Statutory Pension Scheme: Balance Sheet,Cross‐Sectional Internal Rate of Return and Implicit Tax Rate

We present a framework for accounting of the German statutory pension scheme and calculate a balance sheet for the period 2005–14. Estimating a funding ratio of about 90 per cent, we present some policy recommendations in order to restore balancing of assets and liabilities. Extending and applying the methodology proposed by Settergren and Mikula (2005), we additionally estimate the aggregate cross‐sectional internal rate of return of the German pension scheme over this period. We are able to show that these internal rates of return are mainly financed by increasing contributions and by increasing unfunded liabilities. Additionally, our analysis reveals that from an expenditure perspective, the major part of the internal rate of return results from changing longevity rather than other changes. We also estimate the implicit tax rates from a cross‐sectional perspective and find that they can mainly be interpreted as an ‘implicit wealth tax’ on pension wealth. Finally, we analyse the impact of demographic change on the balance sheet employing a population projection. While the pure demographic effect leads to a decreasing funding ratio during population ageing, the automatic balancing mechanisms of the German pension scheme lead to a significant overfunding in the long run from the accounting perspective adopted in the Swedish pension system.     

The psychological effects on tariff choices for car insurance

Insurance customers increasingly choose between conventional flat-rate car insurance tariffs and innovative usage-based car insurance tariffs such as a pay-per-mile tariff. Usage-based car insurance tariffs require traffic telematics. In this paper, we analyze the decision-making behavior of insurance customers concerning tariff choices as well as the psychological effects. In other service areas, it can be observed that customers often prefer a flat-rate tariff even if their billing rate would be lower on a pay-per-use tariff for a given amount of usage. In study?1, we show that the purchase intention of car insurance tariffs is influenced by psychological effects as well as the customer’s personal experience with the insurance provider and that it is higher for a flat-rate car insurance tariff compared to a pay-per-mile tariff. Customers who have had positive experiences with an insurance provider induce a higher purchase intention for car insurance than customers who have had no experience with an insurance provider. In study?2, we show that the probability of choosing a flat-rate car insurance tariff is higher with increasing monthly kilometers.     

An Examination of ERR and Asset Allocation in Public Pension Plans

In this paper, we examine the usefulness of expected rates of return (ERR) for public pension plans. Specifically, we test the correlation between the expected rate of return on plan assets and asset allocation. We also examine the predictive power of ERR on the actual returns of the pension assets. We find that the correlation between expected return and the percentage of assets that are equity securities is relatively weak. Further, we find that the percentage of assets that are equity securities is a much better predictor of actual returns than the disclosed expected return in public pension plans. These results provide evidence to support SFAS No. 87 , which requires the disclosure of plan assets and against recently promulgated SFAS No. 132 , which eliminates this disclosure requirement. The evidence also supports GASB 25'sStatement of Net Plan Assets .     

Die Mitgliedschaft EG-ausländischer Versicherungsunternehmen im Sicherungsfond der Lebens- und Krankenversicherung

The present regulation of the German guarantee funds for life and health insurance offers no possibility for insurance enterprises from other memberstates of the EC to become a member of these funds. Whereas an obligatory membership for EC-foreign insurance enterprises would violate the single-license-principle for financial supervision in the EC, community law requires a possibility to become a member of the German guarantee funds on a voluntary basis. The absence of the possibility of such a voluntary membership in the German insurance supervision law leads to an inadmissible restriction of the fundamental economic freedom rights of the common market. Therefore, the German legislator has to add the possibility of a voluntary membership to his national regulation of the guarantee funds to secure an undistorted competition on the common market for insurance in the EC.     

社会分层与养老保险制度整合研究

社会分层是依据身份、职业、收入、社会地位等差异划分的社会等级。社会分层福利的差异,在养老保险方面体现得最为明显。一方面,由于社会分层的存在导致不同社会层次的养老保险待遇存在差异,另一方面,养老保险的待遇差异又会进一步强化已有的社会分层,甚至促成新的社会分层的产生,造成收入分配差距和贫富差距,引发社会矛盾。因此有必要兼顾社会分层的养老保险权益,改变养老保险制度碎片化对部分群体的利益伤害,探求中国养老保险制度整合的有效路径。     

On the Asset Allocation of a Default Pension Fund

We characterize the optimal default fund in a defined contribution (DC) pension plan. Using detailed data on individuals' holdings inside and outside the pension system, we find substantial heterogeneity within and between passive and active investors in terms of labor income, financial wealth, and stock market participation. We build a life‐cycle consumption‐savings model, with a DC pension account and an opt‐out/default choice, that produces realistic investor heterogeneity. Relative to a common age‐based allocation, implementing the optimal default asset allocation implies a welfare gain of 1.5% during retirement. Much of the gain is attainable with a simple rule of thumb.     

Analyse der Abwicklung von gesetzlichen Krankenkassen per sozialrechtlicher Schließung oder per Insolvenzverfahren

Private as well as statutory health insurers have various ways of insolvency. Although the Insolvency Act has been applied for statutory health insurance since 2010, these new options were not used up to now. Anyway, the legislators laid the preference out of closure. This article investigates how the priority of closure could be in contradiction to the applicability of the Insolvency Act. It is asked, whether the introduction of the insolvency capability of health insurance funds was rather to assimilate the frame conditions relating to pension promises than creating a real alternative. One reason could be, that the Insolvency Act is not only generally applicable in the liquidation of a health insurance fund, but potentially even the best alternative. The insolvency proceedings for example are advantageous for health insurance funds within the same group because the maximum load is split and lower than it would be by a closure by social law and in addition to that the PSV is obligatory. The results show, that the generally-accepted, not limited standard preference of closure as laid out by the legislators in § 171b (3) S. 2 SGB V, seems inexplicable. The paper draws parallels to private health insurance companies under Solvency II and opens up new perspectives for legislative measures.     

Aktienanlage für Lebensversicherer unter Solvency II

Life insurance companies are among the largest institutional investors. As part of their investment policy they are subject to special legal requirements. In particular the calculation of the solvency capital that has to be deposited for the market risk has changed under Solvency II. A widely spread thesis on this topic is that investments in equity have become unprofitable for life insurers due to solvency capital requirements – compared to previous periods of high equity ratios of temporally over 25%. Therefore insurers might have dropped their average stock quotas to below 5%.The intention of the present study is to analyze whether the capital requirements for the equity investments under Solvency II are a hurdle to achieve a reasonable profitability or – opposite to that – whether the equity investments are a suitable investment to provide an acceptable return on assets. For this purpose the solvency capital requirements of the equity investment under Solvency I considering the BaFin stress test are compared with the new solvency capital requirements under Solvency II including the symmetric adjustment factor (SA). Furthermore the diversification effects are taken into account; they are analyzed on the basis of the SFCR reports of the life insurance companies first published in 2017. As a result the risk capital requirements for equity investments under Solvency II have been reduced to more than 50% compared to prior solvency requirements and depending on the observed scenarios. Whilst Solvency I required an underlying risk capital of 31% at the end of 2017, Solvency II requires only 13.56% following the standard model and after aggregating the risk-mitigating effects in the group scenario. This effect results in a surplus of 7.2%, considering industry-standard capital costs for the underlying solvency capital and an average stock market return of 8% per annum. Consequently the equity investment is suitable to increase the profitability of the investments of German life insurance companies especially in the environment of low interest rates in the capital market for fixed income titles.     

Determinants of M&A success in the European insurance industry

This research analyzes the success of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) for European acquiring insurers using a stock market perspective. In contrast to previous papers that use an event study approach, our analysis is based on the stochastic dominance methodology, in which we analyze short and long term capital market reactions following an M&A announcement. In addition, we examine firm- and transaction-specific determinants associated with superior M&A success. Using a sample of 102 European insurance M&A transactions over the period 1993–2009, our results indicate that acquiring insurers are second-order dominated by their benchmark portfolio in the short term. In the long run, we find no evidence of stochastic dominance compared to their non-acquiring counterparts. Moreover, we find that geographically diversifying acquirers are rewarded by the market, and that transactions in which the acquirer and target have a business relationship before the M&A announcement outperform transactions without pre-M&A participation in the short-term. Finally, we detect a positive relationship between cash payment and acquirers’ M&A success.     

Understanding price competition in the German motor insurance market

This paper analyzes price competition in the German motor insurance market since 1994 and looks for evidence to back up a claim frequently found in the trade literature—that there have been two recent price wars in this industry, the first in 1996–1999, the second in 2005–2006. In a first step, we analyze the development of the German motor insurance market and compare it to that of other property-liability lines of business. In a second step the applicability of price war definitions found in the marketing literature to the German motor insurance market is checked. In a third step, a comparison to reference cases from other industries, where price wars have been subject to academic analysis, is conducted to complement the analysis. We conclude that, contrary to reports in the trade literature, the periods of 1996–1999 and 2005–2006 should be considered as times of intense competition in the motor insurance industry, not as times of price war.     

Mittelbare Diskriminierungen bei Unisex-Versicherungstarifen

The article drafts a concept for applying the prohibition of indirect gender discrimination in the specific situation of insurance tariffs. In order to reveal indirect discrimination it has to be shown that each gender is affected differently by a differentiating factor to a significant extent. The basis is a statistical comparison between the total group and the disadvantaged subgroup (among potential insurance holders). Because of Art. 5 (1) of Council Directive 2004/113/EC a statistically verifiable risk difference cannot justify indirect discriminations by itself. The provision prohibits not only direct discrimination but also the use of differentiating factors highly correlated with one gender as the correlation leads to the inclusion of a higher gender-specific risk. Therefore only distinctions which are based on the individual insurance record can be justified as their aim is to influence future behaviour. In other cases it is necessary to separate the risk difference causally linked to the differentiating factor from the incorporated gender-specific risk difference.