Optimal Asset Allocation and Risk Shifting in Money Management

This article investigates a fund manager's risk-taking incentivesinduced by an increasing and convex relationship of fund flowsto relative performance. In a dynamic portfolio choice framework,we show that the ensuing convexities in the manager's objectivegive rise to a finite risk-shifting range over which she gamblesto finish ahead of her benchmark. Such gambling entails eitheran increase or a decrease in the volatility of the manager'sportfolio, depending on her risk tolerance. In the latter case,the manager reduces her holdings of the risky asset despiteits positive risk premium. Our empirical analysis lends supportto the novel predictions of the model.     

Optimal Life-Cycle Asset Allocation: Understanding the Empirical Evidence

We show that a life‐cycle model with realistically calibrated uninsurable labor income risk and moderate risk aversion can simultaneously match stock market participation rates and asset allocation decisions conditional on participation. The key ingredients of the model are Epstein–Zin preferences, a fixed stock market entry cost, and moderate heterogeneity in risk aversion. Households with low risk aversion smooth earnings shocks with a small buffer stock of assets, and consequently most of them (optimally) never invest in equities. Therefore, the marginal stockholders are (endogenously) more risk averse, and as a result they do not invest their portfolios fully in stocks.     

Dynamic Asset Allocation with Event Risk

Major events often trigger abrupt changes in stock prices and volatility. We study the implications of jumps in prices and volatility on investment strategies. Using the event-risk framework of Duffie, Pan, and Singleton (2000), we provide analytical solutions to the optimal portfolio problem. Event risk dramatically affects the optimal strategy. An investor facing event risk is less willing to take leveraged or short positions. The investor acts as if some portion of his wealth may become illiquid and the optimal strategy blends both dynamic and buy-and-hold strategies. Jumps in prices and volatility both have important effects.     

资本约束下保险公司最优大类资产配置模型研究

中国第二代偿付能力监管制度体系(以下简称“偿二代”)执行以后,投资风险直接体现在资本要求上,资本充足率成为保险公司投资决策的重要约束。在此背景下,保险公司有必要建立整体经济资本预算框架,通过提高各类资产的边际资本回报率,提升公司股东价值。本文通过理论研究证明资本约束下保险公司最优大类资产配置的路径首先是进行负债风险匹配资产的管理,其次才是追求盈余资产收益最大化,同时,本文创新性提出了三阶段的数值求解方法,填补了国内文献以及保险公司实践中难以前置化资本约束得到大类资产配置数值解的研究空白。     

Jumps and Dynamic Asset Allocation

This paper analyzes the optimal dynamic asset allocation problem in economies with infrequent events and where the investment opportunities are stochastic and predictable. Analytical approximations are obtained, with which a thorough comparative study is performed on the impacts of jumps upon the dynamic decision. The model is then calibrated to the U.S. equity market. The comparative analysis and the calibration exercise both show that jump risk not only makes the investor's allocation more conservative overall but also makes her dynamic portfolio rebalancing less dramatic over time.     

保险资金入市一切刚刚开始

入市的金额、操作的手法、相关的规定、与国际成熟做法的差距……,种种迹象表明,此刻的保险资金入市仅仅是个开始。     

偿二代与资产负债匹配约束下寿险公司最优资产配置

保险公司资产配置需要同时考虑资产负债匹配和风险-收益均衡.本文在偿二代对保险资产负债匹配的隐性要求和保险资产负债管理监管规则对资产负债匹配的显性要求下,考察了资本占用和久期匹配约束下的险资投资策略,研究了保险公司的最优资产配置问题.结果 显示:负债久期较长的寿险公司很难同时满足偿二代资本要求和资产负债久期匹配要求;保险...     

Dynamic Asset Allocation under Inflation

We develop a simple framework for analyzing a finite-horizon investor's asset allocation problem under inflation when only nominal assets are available. The investor's optimal investment strategy and indirect utility are given in simple closed form. Hedge demands depend on the investor's horizon and risk aversion and on the maturities of the bonds included in the portfolio. When short positions are precluded, the optimal strategy consists of investments in cash, equity, and a single nominal bond with optimally chosen maturity. Both the optimal stock–bond mix and the optimal bond maturity depend on the investor's horizon and risk aversion.     

基金业绩排名与泡沫资产配置

基金在业绩排名压力下的泡沫资产配置行为会加剧市场波动、推升市场泡沫。本文基于事件研究法与固定效应模型研究了2013―2020年基金的重仓持股,发现:(1)基金在泡沫膨胀阶段显著超配了泡沫资产,而在泡沫破裂前后显著减配,展现了“泡沫骑乘者”的特征;(2)2015年前后,泡沫资产主要为小市值股票,2019―2020年,泡沫资产逐渐转为大市值“白马股”,且基金超配的程度显著提高,呈现抱团大盘白马股的特征;(3)排名前5%的赢家基金,以及1/3和1/10关键排名处的基金更激进地超配泡沫资产;(4)相邻排名基金的业绩差异越大,基金的泡沫资产配置行为越明显。综上表明,基金公司并不一定是天然的市场稳定器,监管层应密切关注业绩压力下基金超配泡沫资产的行为,投资者则应理性选择长期声誉较高的基金。     

Asset Allocation by Variance Sensitivity Analysis

This article provides a solution to the curse of dimensionalityassociated to multivariate generalized autoregressive conditionallyheteroskedastic (GARCH) estimation. We work with univariateportfolio GARCH models and show how the multivariate dimensionof the portfolio allocation problem may be recovered from theunivariate approach. The main tool we use is "variance sensitivityanalysis," the change in the portfolio variance induced by aninfinitesimal change in the portfolio allocation. We suggesta computationally feasible method to find minimum variance portfoliosand estimate full variance-covariance matrices. An applicationto real data portfolios implements our methodology and comparesits performance against that of selected popular alternatives.     

Strategic Asset Allocation in Money Management

This paper analyzes the dynamic portfolio choice implications of strategic interaction among money managers who compete for fund flows. We study such interaction between two risk‐averse managers in continuous time, characterizing analytically their unique equilibrium investments. Driven by chasing and contrarian mechanisms when one is well ahead, they gamble in the opposite direction when their performance is close. We also examine multiple and mixed‐strategy equilibria. Equilibrium policy of each manager crucially depends on the opponent's risk attitude. Hence, client investors concerned about how a strategic manager may trade on their behalf should also learn competitors' characteristics.     

International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts

Correlations between international equity market returns tendto increase in highly volatile bear markets, which has led someto doubt the benefits of international diversification. Thisarticle solves the dynamic portfolio choice problem of a U.S.investor faced with a time-varying investment opportunity setmodeled using a regime-switching process which may be characterizedby correlations and volatilities that increase in bad times.International diversification is still valuable with regimechanges and currency hedging imparts further benefit. The costsof ignoring the regimes are small for all-equity portfoliosbut increase when a conditionally risk-free asset can be held.     

Homeownership as a Constraint on Asset Allocation

Personal preferences and financial incentives make homeownership desirable for most families. Once a family purchases a home they find it impractical (costly) to frequently change their ownership of residential real estate. Thus, by deciding how much home to buy, a family constrains their ability to adjust their asset allocation between residential real estate and other assets. To analyze the impact of this constraint on consumption, welfare, and post-retirement wealth, we first investigate an individual’s optimal asset allocation decisions when they are subject to a “homeownership constraint.” Next, we perform a “thought experiment” where we assume the existence of a market where a homeowner can sell, without cost, a fractional interest in their home. Now the housing choice decision does not constrain the individual’s asset allocations. By comparing these two cases, we estimate the differences in post-retirement wealth and the welfare gains potentially realizable if asset allocations were not subject to a homeownership constraint. For realistic parameter values, we find that the homeowner would require a substantial increase in total net worth to achieve the same level of utility as would be achievable if the choice of a home could be separated from the asset allocation decision. The robustness of the analysis is evaluated with respect to the model’s parameters and initial state variables. We find that changes in the values of the constraint (i.e., the value of the home) and the expected real rate of home value appreciation are the only state variables or parameter that is associated with a large change in asset allocation and/or the burden imposed by the housing constraint. This finding suggests the importance of a detailed examination of the impact of inter-regional differences in home prices and expected rates of appreciation on asset allocation and post-retirement wealth.     

A Dynamic-Programming Approach to Multiperiod Asset Allocation

Academicians and practitioners recently have focused a great deal of attention on the issue of retirement asset allocation. However, research on the academic side typically has assumed a static allocation of a fixed amount over the investor's lifetime, while the advice on the practitioner side has been largely ad hoc in nature. Moreover, both academics and practitioners often fail to link allocations to the individual's attitude toward risk. This paper uses several performance measures that incorporate the individual's aversion to risk and finds the allocations in the year before retirement that maximize the expected value of those performance measures. It then uses a dynamic programming procedure to roll back one year at a time to determine optimal allocations for previous years as well. We find that the traditional advice that young investors should invest more heavily in equity (with a gradual shift to more debt as they near retirement) indeed is correct, and in fact the optimal equity allocation is even higher than commonly suggested. Deviations of the growth in an individual's income from a long-term national average did not seem to significantly affect the optimal allocations. The optimal allocations, however, vary widely as a function of (1) investor attitudes toward risk and (2) accumulated savings to date. These results suggest greater care should be taken to assess and incorporate these factors into the asset-allocation decision.     

Copula—CVaR资产组合选择模型分析

采用基于MonteCarlo数值模拟技术的Copula—CVaR风险评估模型讨论Copula函数的选择对投资决策的影响,度量资产组合的集成风险,总结出了资产组合风险度量的一般步骤。通过计算资产组合的VaR和CvaR值,实证检验说明：ClaytonCopula由于能更好地刻画尾部特征,从而在危机时期准确度更高。根据该模型进行资产选择可以使投资者的选择更加稳健。     

保险公司资产配置的国际比较及借鉴

从纵向变动看，各国保险投资具有证券化倾向，美欧日股票投资变动呈现不同特征。从不同保险类型看，寿险与财产险、单独账户与一般账户在资产配置结构上存在很大差异。国际比较对中国的借鉴有三：一是保险公司的资产配置既需要借鉴国际经验更需要以本国经济，金融现实为基础，二是科学的保险资产配置需要以“资产负债管理”思想为指导，对不同性质的保险资金来源采取不同的投资策略，三是为降低投资风险、适度提高投资收益，需要根据本国经济、金融结构变化适时调整保险资产配置结构。     

资产配置中的投资时钟模型

投资时钟模型是将资产配置和行业策略同经济周期相联系的资产配置方法。经济周期划分为衰退、复苏、过热和滞胀四个阶段,各阶段都对应着收益表现超过一般市场的某一特定资产类别:债券、股票、大宗商品和现金。投资时钟模型还可以帮助资产配置的行业选择。在经济复苏阶段,投资于成长性的周期性行业;在过热阶段,投资于价值性的周期性行业;在滞胀时期,投资于价值型的防御性行业;在衰退时期,投资于成长性的防御性行业。     

Asymmetric Information,Asset Allocation,and Debt Financing

We analyze a signaling game where firms' financing announcements convey private information about their prospects but a moral hazard problem exists in that managers may suboptimally invest. Consequently, the attempt to address an asymmetric information problem exacerbates moral hazard. The equilibrium recognizes both imperfect information problems. Additionally, the firm must determine how to allocate funds between two technologies differing in cash flow timing and managerial accessibility. We define an above-average firm's comparative advantage as that technology which is most dominant relative to a firm with lesser prospects and show that the resultant equilibria follow the lines of the firm's comparative advantage. Finally, we show that separation may be achieved costlessly, i.e., with no explicit signaling cost.