The conflict mitigating effects of trade in the India-Pakistan case

We examine whether greater inter-state trade, democracy and reduced military spending lower belligerence between India and Pakistan, beginning with a theoretical model covering the opportunity costs of conflict in terms of trade losses and security spending, as well as the costs of making concessions to rivals. Conflict between the two nations is best understood in a multivariate framework where variables such as economic performance, integration with rest of the world, bilateral trade, military expenditure, democracy orientation and population are simultaneously considered. Our empirical investigation based on time series econometrics from 1950 to 2005 suggests that reduced bilateral trade, greater military expenditure, less development expenditure, lower levels of democracy, lower growth rates and less general trade openness are all conflict enhancing. Globalization, or a greater openness to international trade with the rest of the world, is the most significant driver of a liberal peace, rather than a common democratic orientation.     

Environmental standards as barriers to trade

This paper examines the case of a good, polluting in consumption, whose pollutive content is restricted by a government with strong environmental policies. When foreign producers are unable to comply with the restrictive environmental standard of such a country, to which they wish to export, they often allege that those standards constitute illegal barriers to free trade. An example of such a good is gasoline, excessively pollutive formulations of which are prohibited from importation into the United States by the 1970 Clean Air Act. Rather than banning them, such imports should be taxed, along with the domestically produced substitute good, according to their respective pollutant contents. This would foster economic efficiency and should be more acceptable to foreign producers than the outright prohibition mandated by the Clean Air Act. The results of this paper reaffirm the argument in a previous article in this journal (Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 29 (1995) 187), though the countries’ roles in the two papers are reversed, that free trade and Pigouvian environmental policies increase international welfare.     

Debating Free International Trade

This article begins with a definition of free international trade and a brief history of the evolution of free trade as an ideology and economic policy. It next considers the case for free trade as first articulated by classical economists Adam Smith and David Ricardo and then examines free trade critiques proffered by Friedrich List and Marxist scholars who claim that free trade can never be just nor fair so long as relational and structural power inequalities exist between corporations and workers. This article concludes with a summary of the current free trade debate, highlighting, in particular, how radical critics of free trade have begun to embrace a more distinctly Marxian view of the dynamics of globalized capital accumulation. This new perspective acknowledges the progressive transformations that globalized trade has brought to developing countries while also highlighting the ways global free trade relies upon and sustains an exploitative class dynamic.     

Conclusion: A new learning curve and new economic relations

The European Union has a strong interest in fostering sustainable growth in the central Asian economies, one dimension being to underpin its future energy security. This means supporting reforms that can further strengthen economic institutions, catalyze higher levels of FDI outside the energy sector, promote more broadly based economic growth, and promote financial stability. The EU thus needs to encourage policies that facilitate trade, including notably WTO membership; support institution-building, with a special emphasis on the financial sector; and foster greater regional co-operation (but not preferential regional trade). These are indeed areas in which the EU has developed a strong capacity for assistance during its engagement in Eastern Europe. The EU's policy agenda for central Asia suggests a shift of focus consistent with economic priorities along these lines.     

中国-东盟自由贸易区建成带给广西企业的机遇与挑战

中国-东盟自由贸易区的建成,是中国与东盟经贸合作史上的一个里程碑,意味着中国与东盟之间基本实现贸易和投资自由化,经济一体化程度将达到前所未有的水平,广西企业将迎来难得的发展机遇和新的挑战。在中国-东盟自由贸易区建成这一大背景下,文章以广西企业发展为例,提出当前广西企业面临的机遇与挑战,并就如何捉住机遇及解决困难提出相关建议。     

中国-东盟自由贸易区建成带给广西企业的机遇与挑战

中国-东盟自由贸易区的建成,是中国与东盟经贸合作史上的一个里程碑,意味着中国与东盟之间基本实现贸易和投资自由化,经济一体化程度将达到前所未有的水平,广西企业将迎来难得的发展机遇和新的挑战。在中国-东盟自由贸易区建成这一大背景下,文章以广西企业发展为例,提出当前广西企业面临的机遇与挑战,并就如何捉住机遇及解决困难提出相关建议。     

Bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh: A general equilibrium approach

India and Bangladesh have pursued policies of trade liberalization since the early 1990s. However, owing to the differential speeds of opening up, Bangladesh's bilateral trade deficit with India widened substantially over the years. This aggravated the economic and the political tensions between the economies. It has been held that promotion of free trade between the two economies may enhance the trade and hence economic cooperation between them. Against this backdrop the present paper proposes a theoretical framework that provides a general equilibrium determination of the commodity pattern of trade and hence locates the comparative advantages of the economies. The empirical implementation of the model considers trade in 25 sectors comparable in the input–output tables of the economies. The study isolates the gains from free trade accruing to either economy. The paper also explores the pattern of bilateral trade when each economy produces goods by utilizing their own as well as the other country's technology. The gains from this trading arrangement are also isolated.     

The African Continental Free Trade Area

Monopolies continue to dominate world trade by controlling global production and distribution chains. Neither free trade nor fair trade has transformed this system; the recent rise in nativism and pseudo-protectionism has not, and cannot, address these problems either. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the largest free trade area in the world, promises to be different. AfCFTA rejects classical, neoclassical, and Marxist theories of trade, appealing, instead, to non-aligned pan-Africanism. It advocates continental free trade as a way to overcome the lingering effects of slavery, colonialism, and neocolonialism. However, its exclusive focus on continental Africa, its disinterest in systemic redistribution, and encouragement of the private appropriation of socially created land rents prevents AfCFTA from achieving its goals. In fact, AfCFTA might actually foster inequality—progress alongside of poverty—and in so doing, undermine the very essence of this trade regime. What Henry George (1886) called “true free trade,” a theory based on making land common by socializing land rent, offers a more promising and powerful model through which to achieve the pan-African agenda. Indeed, only true free trade can definitively decolonize global trade.     

经济全球化背景下国家矿产资源安全研究——基于自由贸易理论及我国当前贸易结构和贸易形势的考量

矿产资源贸易出于需求,而表现为价格差异导致.伴随经济全球化过程,掩盖在自由贸易体制下世界各主要工业国对矿产资源的争夺,是矿产资源在世界范围内配置的实质.获得商品定价权是取得矿产资源贸易有利地位的关键,从而提高本国矿产资源的安全程度.本文基于自由贸易理论,结合我国当前的贸易结构和贸易形势,研究我国矿产资源安全的现状,进而对确保矿产资源安全提出相应的对策建议.     

The Role of Land Tenure,Taxation, and Monetary Systems in Achieving and Enjoying Free Trade

Civilizations rise and fall based on the effectiveness of their socio-political arrangements and institutions. The institutions that matter most are the laws and customs that govern 1) production and exchange of goods (trade), 2) land tenure and the distribution of the surplus associated with it, 3) the levying of taxes to provide public goods and services, and 4) the monetary systems adopted to facilitate such activities. If those institutions distribute the benefits of civilization equitably to all members of society, the result is likely to be peace and prosperity. However, if the rules of a society are designed to protect the interests of an elite, conflict is likely to ensue. Unrestricted trade across national borders (“free trade”) has the potential to produce socially beneficial outcomes, but it is not sufficient to overcome systemic injustices associated with flawed systems of land tenure, taxation, and monetary management. This article makes use of historical examples to examine trade in relation to the other institutions to show why just social arrangements must be considered an essential part of trade policy.     

建立中俄经济自由贸易区的可行性分析

从这次世界性金融危机对中俄经济影响的回顾,指出了建立中俄经济自由贸易区的迫切性,较为详细地阐述了建立中俄经济自由贸易区的必要性,同时也较为充分地分析了建立中俄经济贸易区的可行性。     

How Large Is International Trade’s Effect on Economic Growth?

The estimated static welfare gains from international trade are very small, on the order of one percent of GDP. The case for free trade is therefore increasingly linked to trade’s apparent positive effects on economic growth. But how large are these growth effects? The vast empirical literature has emphasized the statistical significance, not the economic significance, of the trade‐growth relationship. This survey’s re‐examination of the empirical literature focuses on the size of the relationship between trade and growth. Our survey reveals that the many empirical studies are surprisingly consistent in terms of the size of the relationship: A one percentage point increase in the growth of exports is associated with a one‐fifth percentage point increase in economic growth. Given the power of compounding, the effect of trade on growth is very important for human welfare.     

True Free Trade Is Still True

Protection or Free Trade (1886) by Henry George remains the classic argument for complete free trade. The arguments against free trade were either anticipated and refuted by George, or they are unanticipated arguments that claim changed or overlooked circumstances have altered the case for free trade. This article refutes these unanticipated arguments by restating the classic economic case for free trade, analyzing counterarguments to free trade, and examining the continuing relevance of George’s theory of the distribution of the benefits of free trade.     

区域经济一体化经济增长收敛性的实证研究

本文采用δ收敛考察欧盟(欧共体)在1955年-2000年和东盟在1965年-2005年区域经济一体化与经济增长收敛的关系,发现欧盟在1955年-1990年呈现显著的经济增长收敛,而东盟成立后经济增长呈发散趋势。本文通过分析认为,呈现经济增长收敛的区域经济一体化具有如下特点:一是经济一体化成员国消除了彼此间的贸易壁垒,区域内部基本实现自由贸易;二是经济一体化成员国之间的贸易流量成为各自对外贸易的主要流量;三是FDI效应导致成员国之间的资源配置进一步优化。     

深化中国—东盟区域金融合作的可行性条件:经济周期同步性研究

中国—东盟自由贸易区的全面启动,使得该区域内金融合作落后于贸易合作的问题越发凸显。根据蒙代尔的最优货币区理论,经济周期是否同步决定区域金融合作是否可行。文章通过建立多变量向量误差修正模型,依据共同趋势和共同周期理论,对中国与东盟经济周期的同步性进行了经验分析。结果表明,中国与东盟经济周期不仅在长期内具有共同的随机发展趋势,短期内也显示出明显的同步性,因而满足加深区域金融合作的可行条件。     

新兴经济体发展对国际社会的影响力研究

当今世界经济呈现多极化趋势,新兴经济体成为世界经济增长的主要动力,对世界政治经济格局产生深刻影响。本文阐述新兴经济体在政治、经济、社会等各方面发展状况,分析新兴经济体的发展对国际社会的影响力。新兴经济体的发展促进了世界经济、国际贸易的稳步发展和产业结构调整,为消除世界范围的贫困和维护世界和平做出了积极的贡献,为发展中国家加快发展和加强“区域化”多边合作提供了可借鉴模式,同时对全球治理结构转型和国际秩序重塑产生一定影响。     

Patterns of dominant flows in the world trade web

The large-scale organization of the world economies is exhibiting increasing levels of local heterogeneity and global interdependency. Understanding the relation between local and global features calls for analytical tools able to uncover the global emerging organization of the international trade network. Here we analyze the world network of bilateral trade imbalances and characterize its overall flux organization, unraveling local and global high-flux pathways that define the backbone of the trade system. We develop a general procedure capable to progressively filter out in a consistent and quantitative way the dominant trade channels. This procedure is completely general and can be applied to any weighted network to detect the underlying structure of transport flows. The trade fluxes properties of the world trade web determine a ranking of trade partnerships that highlights global interdependencies, providing information not accessible by simple local analysis. The present work provides new quantitative tools for a dynamical approach to the propagation of economic crises.     

我国加工贸易脱贫之路

文章认为,加工贸易的快速增长促进了我国对外贸易迅速发展,国际经济地位迅速提高,但目前我国加工贸易仍处于国际产业价值链的低端,价值增值率和经济效益均处低下水平,处于"贫困化增长"状态,为此,应重新确定我国在国际分工中的地位,改变我国加工企业与外国品牌制造商的关系,延长国际产业链在中国的环节,调整加工贸易内部结构,促进加工贸易协调发展,抓住经济一体化的机遇,鼓励加工企业走出去,开展对外合作,并调整有关加工贸易的政策和监管制度,净化对外贸易环境,寻求我国加工贸易健康持续的发展道路。     

Expansionary effects of the welfare state in a small open economy

We examine the relationship between welfare state policies and economic performance in a small open economy with (i) free trade in final goods and international capital mobility, and (ii) aggregate increasing returns to scale. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, we find that a retrenchment of welfare programmes is not an inevitable consequence of economic integration. Instead, by improving the exploitation of aggregate scale economies, social expenditure policies and international openness complement each other in facilitating an improvement in economic performance that can sustain a more generous welfare protection.     

Does unionization lead to corporate changes in productivity practices?–insights from Singapore

This paper explores the role of trade unions in influencing corporate change towards productivity improvement for a newly industrialized country– Singapore.Empirical analysis of a sample of firms found unionization to be positively associated with certain productivity practices.The more significant and stronger correlations being the sharing of productivity gains, role Specialization (productivity manager) and productivity as part of corporate policy. Implications of these findings are discussed.

A Sunday Times commentary 2 suggested that, drawing from the Singapore industrial relations experience, trade unions could play a positive role in generating economic growth. If that is seen to be occurring from the macrolevel, it will naturally be interesting to inquire further what effects unionization can have on internal organizational practices, such as in productivity improvement. There may also be practical benefits from having insights into the dynamic forces that are at work when trade unionism is present.

A perspective on the direction (whether positive or negative) and scale of change in the emphasis on productivity improvement practices could help multinational enterprises formulate more effective employee relations policies when operating in Singapore –where tripartite co–operation is the key industrial relations philosophy. Corporations that are in the process of

being unionized may be able to appreciate that resulting change to their operating environments as a consequence of unionization need nor always be unfavourable.Management operating in unionized contexts could rethink their industrial relations strategies in light of the findings here –that it is quite possible to work with trade unions to enhance corporate productivity.

Most significantly, such findings could foster a greater determination by both the management and unions in engendering a co-operative industrial relations climate.This is particularly relevant for corporations operating in countries such as Britain, where industrial relations are traditionally less harmonious.To survive in the increasingly global competition of the 1990s and beyond, Western businesses will need co-operative industrial relations that help to foster productivity improvement efforts. This theme isfurther explored in the last section of the paper.