DO POLITICS CAUSE REGIME SHIFTS IN MONETARY POLICY?

Whether or not politics cause changes in monetary policy is controversial in the literature. This article re‐examines the link between politics and regime shifts in monetary policy using two alternative approaches. First, empirical results show that both the presidential and Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) chairmanship regimes do not influence monetary policy under the assumption that the Fed closely follows an interest rate rule. On the other hand, evidence also suggests that changes in political regimes are able to account for the deviations from the optimal Taylor rule. (JEL E52, E58, D78)     

MONETARY POLICY AND INEQUALITY: HOW DOES ONE AFFECT THE OTHER?

This article studies a labor-supply-side channel affecting the relationship between monetary policy and income inequality. To this end, I build a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian economy with indivisible labor in which both macro and micro labor supply elasticities are endogenously generated. First, I find that monetary policy shocks have distributional consequences due to a substantial heterogeneity in labor supply elasticity across households. Second, a more equal economy is associated with more effective monetary policy in terms of output. I document supporting empirical evidence for the key mechanism of the model using microlevel data and state-level data in the United States.     

OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY WITH THE STICKY INFORMATION MODEL OF PRICE ADJUSTMENT: INFLATION OR PRICE‐LEVEL TARGETING?

I investigate the optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian macroeconomic framework with the sticky information model of price adjustment. The model is solved for optimal policy, and welfare implications of three alternative monetary policy regimes under this optimal policy are compared when there is a cost‐push shock to the economy. These monetary policy regimes are the unconstrained policy, price‐level targeting and inflation targeting regimes. The results illustrate that optimal policy depends on the degree of price stickiness and the persistence of the shock. Inflation targeting emerges as the optimal policy if prices are flexible enough or the shock is persistent enough. However, the unconstrained policy or price‐level targeting might be preferable to inflation targeting if prices are not very flexible and the shock is not very persistent. The results also show that as prices become more flexible, the welfare loss usually gets bigger.     

“SWEEPING THE HEAVENS FOR A COMET”: WOMEN,THE LANGUAGE OF POLITICAL ECONOMY,AND HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE US

Abstract

The importance of increased levels of education in improving the status of women throughout the world is well established. Higher levels of education are associated with lower birth rates, higher incomes, and greater autonomy for women. Yet, women's struggle to have a voice in higher education has been fraught with difficulties in the US and worldwide, particularly in overcoming widely held perceptions that limit their entrance into certain academic fields, tenured positions, and elite universities. This essay examines the role political economy has played in providing narratives that rationalize women's limited participation in higher education. By examining the representation of women in the academic culture of the nineteenth- and twentieth-century US, we can perhaps better understand women's struggle to obtain an authoritative voice in higher education worldwide.     

SHOULD A MANDATORY SUBORDINATED DEBT POLICY BE INTRODUCED IN THE UNITED KINGDOM? EVIDENCE FROM THE ISSUANCE ACTIVITY OF BANKS AND BUILDING SOCIETIES

Current research is beginning to question the role and effectiveness of traditional rules‐based bank regulatory oversight in favor of incentive‐compatible regulatory design and market discipline and, in particular, mandatory subordinated debt market discipline. However, research on the suitability of a mandatory subordinated debt policy (MSNDP) has focused primarily on the United States. The primary aims of this article, therefore, are to examine the market for subordinated debt (SND) issued by UK credit institutions and to assess the suitability of introducing an MSNDP into UK banking regulation. A further contribution of this article is that it explores SND issuance and its characteristics at a bank level and, uniquely, considers them in relation to regulatory, structural, and economic events that either are specific to the UK or otherwise affect international banks. The article compares the UK findings with research on SND markets in the United States and Europe and, in so doing, raises concerns over whether an MSNDP for the largest global credit institutions would be feasible. Although the focus of this study is the UK banking industry, the country‐focused bank‐level approach provides conclusions that might be relevant to other countries considering the implementation of an MSNDP.(JEL G18, G28)     

NEAR‐TERM EXCHANGE RATE FLEXIBILITY IN EAST ASIA: PRECURSOR TO REGIONAL MONETARY UNION?

Abstract.  Trade integration has advanced far in East Asia whereas financial integration has been lagging. Important policy initiatives have, however, been taken. This process will eventually require further relaxation of cross-border capital controls, which in turn will make exchange rate stabilisation schemes more difficult to operate. These developments seem to run counter to the perceived need to promote intra-regional exchange rate stability in order to maintain trade integration. However, it would be risky to impose regional exchange rate stabilisation schemes over an indefinite period. Monetary union could still be a worthy objective, but near-term exchange rate stabilisation should not be part of the road map.     

EFFICIENT POLICY IN A PREDATORY ECONOMY: TO HIM WHO HATH SHALL BE GIVEN?*

Trade subject to predation generates externalities within and between markets. Efficient tax, infrastructure, and enforcement policies internalize the net externality—more trade implies fewer predators but drawn to trade at rising cost. The balance is positive (negative) as enforcement is weak (strong). Dual economies pair weak Periphery and strong Core enforcement markets. Efficient taxation and infrastructure promote the Core at the expense of the Periphery. Efficient enforcement promotes both. Tolerance (intolerance) of smuggling is efficient when Core enforcement is weak (strong). Tolerance of informal market Mafias that provide enforcement and infrastructure is efficient when Core enforcement is strong.     

IS TIGHTER FISCAL POLICY EXPANSIONARY UNDER FISCAL DOMINANCE?: HYPERCROWDING OUT IN LATIN AMERICA

Hypercrowding out occurs when fiscally dominated governments' domestic credit demands are so intrusive to a nation's financial system that a move toward fiscal surplus lowers interest rates and increases growth. We sample nine Latin American countries to test for these relationships. The impulse‐response results of vector error correction models, six nations test positive for these two connections, suggesting market concern despite recent efforts toward fiscal balance. (JEL E430, E620, O230, O540)     

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN TRANSITION COUNTRIES: BALANCING THE BIASES?

In the past several years, efforts have been made to introduce the 1993 System of National Accounts (1993) SNA ) in most of the formerly centrally planned economies. In doing so, a number of problems have emerged, some of which are particular to the situation of these countries. Some of these problems will probably cause overestimates of national accounts variables, others will cause underestimates, and it would be purely coincidental if these effects cancel out. This paper discusses the most disconcerting issues in this situation, and possible solutions.     

DETERMINANTS OF PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN MALAYSIA: WHAT CAUSES THE POSTCRISIS SLUMPS?

This paper examines the determinants of private investment in Malaysia, with an emphasis on the postcrisis investment slumps. A static private investment function is derived from the neoclassical framework, with appropriate modifications to account for the structural features observed in the country. To introduce dynamics into the model, we adopt a cost minimization problem, which assumes firms optimize investment levels with respect to a quadratic loss function. The results suggest that the availability of financial resources in the economy has a significant positive impact on private investment. Macroeconomic uncertainty exerts a negative influence on the investment climate in the private sector. Both foreign direct investment and public investment are found to have a complementary effect on private investment. Consistent with the prediction of the neoclassical model, a higher level of aggregate output raises private investment, whereas the user cost of capital has the opposite impact. (JEL O16, O53)     

UPLIFTING THE RACE THROUGH DOMESTICITY: CAPITALISM,AFRICAN-AMERICAN MIGRATION,AND THE HOUSEHOLD ECONOMY IN THE GREAT MIGRATION ERA OF 1916—1930

Abstract

The transformation of African Americans into a working-class population began during the World War I Great Migration era. In response to the rise in racial intolerance and the urgency of migrants’ needs, the Pittsburgh Urban League was formed in 1918 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Using a historical case study, this article suggests that the League attempted to promote domesticity among married migrant women for the purpose of racial uplift. This paper examines the implications of this strategy for migrant households and Pittsburgh industry. The study explores the relationship between patriarchy and capitalism in the formation of working-class families by discussing the role of racial ideologies in this process. The author argues that studies of white women’s domesticity and reproductive labor also must address the ways in which race has affected their incorporation into capitalist class systems in countries where race is a central organizing feature of the political economy.     

ENDOGENOUS SOURCES OF VOLATILITY IN HOUSING MARKETS: THE JOINT BUYER–SELLER PROBLEM

This article presents new empirical evidence that internal movement—selling one home and buying another—by existing homeowners within a metropolitan housing market is especially volatile and a substantial driver of fluctuations in transaction volume over the housing market cycle. We develop a search model that shows that the strong procyclicality of internal movement is driven by the cost of simultaneously holding two homes, which varies endogenously over the cycle. The estimated model shows that frictions related to this joint buyer–seller problem substantially amplify cyclical price volatility in housing markets.     

HEALTH CARE IN THE UNITED STATES: WHY IS SUPPLY SO PRICE INSENSITIVE?

Health spending as a percentage of gross domestic product in the U.S. economy is growing, from 5% in 1960 to about 16% in the current period, and it is predicted to grow to as much as 30% in 2050. Then why is the supply of health care in the United States so insensitive to steeply rising prices? This paper conducts an econometric study to show that high health‐care costs have an adverse impact on labor productivity, causing a negative production externality in all industries. So, can the rising cost of health‐care affect the U.S. comparative advantage? The paper seeks answers to these questions in a general equilibrium model and finds that the labor productivity shock is responsible for the sluggish or declining supply of health care. Consumers are able to afford less health care due to a possible decline in real wages. U.S. comparative advantage becomes a nonissue, provided that the equilibrium is stable in spite of a negatively sloped health‐care supply curve. Negative externality, leading to market failure, may be addressed in two alternative ways. (JEL F11, I11, I12, I18)     

PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN SERVICE INDUSTRIES: ARE THE TRANSATLANTIC DIFFERENCES MEASUREMENT‐DRIVEN?

Since the mid-nineties, U.S. labor productivity outgrows its European counterpart by a wide margin. van Ark et al. (2003 ) have found three service industries where productivity growth has accelerated in the U.S., but not in Europe, to account for most of the difference. These three industries are wholesale and retail trade, and trade in financial securities. However, since measurement methods differ on both sides of the Atlantic, Europe's shortfall in productivity growth could be a statistical artifact. This paper tries to answer the question whether this is indeed the case by quantifying the extent to which the U.S. growth rates in trade and banking are pulled upward by measurement methods that are unusual in Europe. In addition, some observations are offered on whether the recent upswing in productivity growth in the U.S. services sector has cured Baumol's Cost Disease.     

TARGETS IN THE TAYLOR RULE: INFLATION,SPEED LIMIT,OR PRICE LEVEL?

This paper explores the link between alternative targets in the Taylor rule and their empirical fit using real‐time U.S. macroeconomic data. We first study the stabilizing properties of the classical Taylor rule (inflation targeting, IT) and add either a price‐level target (PLT) or output gap quasigrowth target (speed‐limit targeting, SLT) in the context of the standard New Keynesian model. We demonstrate that, although only SLT has the same functional form as the optimal interest‐rate reaction function, both PLT and SLT stabilize the model macroeconomy against a cost‐push shock for a wide range of parameter values better than IT. We then estimate all three specifications using the Greenbook data. We find much stronger support for SLT than PLT and discuss pitfalls in estimating the latter that are present in existing literature. (JEL E52, E58)     

EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?*

A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a right‐side unit root test and a sup test, both of which are easy to use in practical applications, and some new limit theory for mildly explosive processes. The test procedure is shown to have discriminatory power in detecting periodically collapsing bubbles, thereby overcoming a weakness in earlier applications of unit root tests for economic bubbles. An empirical application to the Nasdaq stock price index in the 1990s provides confirmation of explosiveness and date stamps the origination of financial exuberance to mid‐1995, prior to the famous remark in December 1996 by Alan Greenspan about irrational exuberance in the financial market, thereby giving the remark empirical content.

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THE USE OF PPP ARRANGEMENTS IN STREET LIGHTING: A WIN‐WIN OPTION?

Street lighting is a classic example of a public good, and governments are extensively involved in its provision. Adequate lighting facilitates both car traffic and personal safety while improving an urban area's character. However, many systems are mismanaged and obsolete, incurring high energy costs and emissions with relatively low lighting quality. Public authorities facing budget constraints often find retrofitting old street‐lighting systems challenging. They have two options: either direct in‐house, public‐authority renovation or contracting with a private company through a public–private partnership (PPP). Although private‐sector‐participation approaches vary, most public authorities can now enter into a street‐light modernization PPP agreement. That can be a win‐win option for both the public and private sectors. The upfront investment is small and operational expenses outweigh capital expenses, generating lower payback periods and energy‐cost reduction with light‐emitting diode (LED) technology. Little public expenditure is necessary when private partners are compensated via shared energy savings. We analyze the Detroit street‐light PPP – the United States’ first – and find that PPPs are practical for retrofitting US street lights and in other countries where they are antiquated.     

LOCAL SERVICES OF GENERAL ECONOMIC INTEREST IN EUROPE. WATER SERVICES: WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES?

ABSTRACT: This study was conducted within the CIRIEC International Scientific Commission ‘Public Services/Public Enterprises’ project on Local services of general economic interest. Compared to other sectors, the process of Europeanization has distinct features in the water field. At EU level, water policy is rather founded on the respect of common ambitious quality standards based on public health and environmental protection norms than the creation of an ‘internal market’. Therefore, the evolution of different models of governance, organization and supply have undergone specific changes. This study focuses on local and national diversity of water services and the broad outlines of current challenges and developments. It concludes that a key challenge is to guarantee the competent public authorities’ freedom of choice of management modes.