外商在华直接投资与中美贸易平衡问题

文章研究发现:(1)中国对外商品出口、从外商品进口分别与外商在华直接投资之间没有稳定的协整关系,但是存在有外商在华直接投资变动到中国对外贸易(出口、进口)发展变动的单向因果关系.(2)在95%置信水平下中国对美商品出口、对美贸易顺差分别与外商在华直接投资之间存在有双向影响关系,这与依据美国统计的月度数据计量的结论是相一致的.(3)外商在华投资企业和中资企业共同生产和出口美国必需的劳动密集型、资本密集和技术成熟型产品.美中贸易逆差属于互补性商品贸易逆差,已超越中美两国贸易范围,很大程度上是由外商在华直接投资包括美国在华直接投资所产生的贸易逆差转移和贸易替代效应造成的.     

China–US trade: implications on conflicts

ABSTRACT

In this study, we examine various aspects of China’s trade, the U.S.’ trade, and the bilateral trade between the two countries. The analysis of each aspect has direct and indirect implications on trade conflicts between the two countries. We focus on important factors, such as the growth of trade, import penetration, increased competitiveness of Chinese firms, comparative advantages of Chinese goods, China’s WTO entry and its compliance, and bilateral trade imbalance. While each of the factors can lead to trade frictions, individual factors will not have led to a large-scale trade war. These factors converge within a brief period and thus can be considered the China shock, thereby making other countries’ adjustments to their economic structures difficult. Therefore, trade frictions are inevitable.     

解析次贷危机中美元升值之谜

针对次贷危机中的美元升值这一传统理论无法解释的现象,即美元升值之谜,分别从次贷危机的引发机制、美国政府为维护美元霸主地位的言论导向、国际资本流动、美国与其他西方国家经济实力对比四个方面作了解释,得出了一些规律性认识并以之来指导我国外贸企业。     

中日韩自由贸易协定对区域内贸易影响的实证研究

根据中日韩三国贸易的实际情况,把影响中日韩三国的贸易主要因素确定为经济规模、人口、运输距离、制度安排等变量,并且进行回归分析,结果显示,制度安排对各国贸易的影响是均显著的。因此,中日韩三国自由贸易协定的缔结将促进区域内贸易的增长。     

中国—东盟自由贸易区服务贸易发展的思考

服务贸易是中国—东盟自由贸易区发展的一项重要内容,中国和东盟各国应在加快服务贸易合作的基础上,通过保障服务贸易良好发展的一系列协议,采取不同策略逐步发展服务贸易,消除服务贸易中产生的摩擦,以实现中国—东盟自由贸易区服务贸易的快速发展。     

直接投资引致的美中贸易逆差:经验研究

运用基于误差修正模型的格兰杰因果关系检验模型,在商品分类层面研究关中贸易逆差与关国对华直接投资的内在联系。结果显示：从长期和短期来看,中国制成品的出口都是关中贸易逆差的“因”,中国制成品的出口与关国对华直接投资之间具有显著的双向格兰杰因果关系,因此关国进入中国的FDI,尤其是进入制造业的FDI越多,美中贸易逆差就越大;美中贸易逆差是结构性的,它不仅不会在短期内消除,而且会随着美国劳动密集型产业向中国的进一步转移而加剧。     

Intraindustry Specialization and the Proposed Korea–United States Free Trade Agreement

Changes in intraindustry specialization indicators over the 2000–2007 period are used to assess factor adjustment pressures that may arise in Korea from the proposed Korea–United States Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA). There is considerable scope for intraindustry specialization between Korea and the United States. Results show few industries in Korea are candidates for adjustment problems. The 14 industries that may face adjustment pressures account for 13% of all Korean imports from the United States. Long tariff phase-out periods, tariff-rate quotas and import safeguards will be used to ease factor adjustment pressures in import-sensitive industries.     

奥巴马政府对华政策与中美关系走向

中关关系是当今世界上最重要的双边关系之一。奥巴马政府上台后,一方面致力于同中国建立长期、积极且具有建设性的关系,另一方面在安全领域继续防范中国。奥巴马政府上台后,中美关系实现了平稳过渡,中关在广泛领域进行了合作,但中美之间也有不和谐音。在中美关系实现了最初平稳过渡后,中美之间麻烦凸显,磨擦不断。一个突出的表现是中关经贸磨擦升温。本文详尽阐述了奥巴马政府对华基本政策及当前中美关系状况,深刻剖析了影响奥巴马政府对华政策的因素,并提出了中国应采取的对策。     

Would a North-South Free Trade Agreement Hurt Unskilled Labor in the North?

I present a simple model to examine the impact of international outsourcing on the welfare of skilled and unskilled labor. In this model, specialized business services are to facilitate manufacturing production, creating additional welfare gains in the presence of positive production externalities. Policies that favor the business service sector contribute to the development of a larger bundle of specialized business services, generating more welfare gains to not only skilled but also unskilled labor. Thus, a country’s unskilled labor is not necessarily worse off with open trade if the country is prosperous in business service provisions.     

美国金融危机对我国进出口贸易冲击的实证研究

中美两国互补型的直接贸易关系紧密,美国金融危机导致美国国内收入水平的下降、美元贬值以及物价水平波动易通过直接贸易溢出对中国进出口贸易状况形成冲击。研究发现,危机通过收入效应对我国贸易状况产生的溢出较弱,而通过价格效应对我国贸易状况产生了明显溢出,并且对我国的出口贸易冲击较大。出口贸易对美国价格水平变化冲击的响应强度、持续时间和衰减方式都发生了显著变化。     

The Empirical Research on U.S. Financial Crisis Impact on China＇ s Import and Export

中美两国互补型的直接贸易关系紧密,美国金融危机导致美国国内收入水平的下降、美元贬值以及物价水平波动易通过直接贸易溢出对中国进出口贸易状况形成冲击。研究发现,危机通过收入效应对我国贸易状况产生的溢出较弱,而通过价格效应对我国贸易状况产生了明显溢出,并且对我国的出口贸易冲击较大。出口贸易对美国价格水平变化冲击的响应强度、持续时间和衰减方式都发生了显著变化。     

近20年美国对外直接投资结构的变化及影响因素分析

本文着重分析了20来美国对外直接投资的行业结构和地区的特征和变化。研究表明,美国对外直接投资的空间结构相对稳定,即以欧洲等发达国家和地区为主;而行业结构变化明显,由以制造业为主转向以金融、保险和房地产业为主。对外直接投资的行业结构和地区结构是相互联系制约的,不同行业的比较优势与特定地区的区位优势相结合,才能产生投资效益。跨国公司对外投资区位的选择,是根据其投资战略并结合自身的竞争优势和东道国的区位优势,经过综合决策而确定的。     

Join hands or walk alone? Evidence on lobbying for trade policy in India

Using primary evidence for 146 Indian manufacturing firms, I examine single and dual lobbying strategies for trade policy influence, and the factors driving firm's choice of these strategies. Firms can adopt a single strategy, by lobbying collectively as a group (Join Hands), or lobbying individually as a firm (Walk Alone). Firms can also adopt a dual strategy, that is, a combination of collective and individual lobbying. The choice of strategy is affected by sector concentration and by tradeoffs between lobbying intensity for sector‐wide and firm‐specific outcomes. The following findings are new for India: First, majority of Indian firms (more than 64% in the sample) use a dual strategy, suggesting the importance to better understand what drives dual strategies. Second, the likelihood of adopting a dual lobbying is higher in sectors that are characterized by low concentration (dispersion is higher), indicating a strong competition effect over free‐riding. Third, relative to the single strategy of collective lobbying, Indian manufacturing firms are likely to join hands while walking alone when targeting firm‐specific outcomes, but prefer to walk alone (single strategy of individual lobbying) when there are tradeoffs between different outcomes, to react quickly. Finally, the availability of resources and firm's perceived effectiveness of its lobbying are significant drivers for the strategy choice.     

美国在华直接投资对中美贸易不平衡的影响研究

20世纪90年代以来,美国在华直接投资额呈迅速上升趋势,中美贸易规模也不断扩大,与此同时,两国的贸易差额也逐年增大,双边贸易的不平衡加剧了贸易摩擦。本文首先从美国在华投资对中美贸易差额所产生的各种效应阐述了中美贸易失衡的原因,然后通过实证分析得出美国在华直接投资与中美贸易顺差之间存在长期协整关系的结论,即美国在华直接投资是导致中美贸易顺差的决定性因素。最后提出缓解中美贸易不平衡的相关对策建议。     

美国航天业进入结构调整期 对华合作有望恢复——从近期美国航天业发展新动态看中美航天合作走向

美国航天业新闻不断:一方面地缘政治和气候变化等原因对其发展构成威胁,另一方面私营航天企业异军突起、成绩显著。同时,美国不断流露出与我国恢复航天合作的积极信号。我方该如何看待美国航天发展的新动向?中关航天合作又将何去何从?本文根据美国航天业出现的新情况,分析美国航天业发展的趋势及中美航天合作走向。     

中国对拉美国家出口贸易影响因素实证分析——基于总量与技术结构视角

本文首先通过计算中国对拉美七国四类制成品出口密集度等,分析中国对拉美地区制成品出口结构;通过考察中国和拉美七国生产要素结构变化情况对中拉要素禀赋差异作深入分析,以期探究中国对拉美制成品出口结构背后深层次原因。然后构建扩展引力模型分别从总量视角和技术结构视角探析中国对拉美货物出口主要影响因素,结果显示拉美国家国内生产总值、中拉要素禀赋差异、中国货币自由度、中国对拉美直接投资水平对中国向拉美出口总量均产生显著促进作用,各影响因素对不同技术类别制成品出口的作用效果存在差异性。为实现中国对拉美出口贸易结构优化升级,推动中国产业结构调整升级,促进拉美地区经济更快发展,研究有针对性地提出了对策建议。     

自由贸易协定中原产地规则的经济效应分析

原产地规则是自由贸易协定中的一项重要内容,对于正在积极参与自由贸易协定的中国来说,更是一个日益重要的理论和实践问题.本文着重于分析自由贸易协定中的原产地规则对企业成本、贸易、投资和福利方面的影响,并在此基础上提出我国制定和有效发挥原产地规则作用的政策建议.     

Whose policy uncertainty affects trade flows between Japan and the U.S.?

Previous studies mostly assumed that the effects of policy uncertainty on trade flows are symmetric. In this article, we add to this literature by arguing and demonstrating that the effects could be asymmetric. Since asymmetry analysis requires using non-linear models, such models yield a more significant outcome than linear models. We show this by considering the trade flows of 66 two-digit U.S. exporting industries to Japan and 59 two-digit Japanese exporting industries to the United States. While both the linear and non-linear models predicted short-run effects of the U.S. and Japanese policy uncertainty on exports of most industries, the long-run effects were significantly different. In the long run, while the linear model predicted no significant effects of either uncertainty measure, the non-linear model 12 (14) U.S. exporting industries that were affected by changes in the Japanese (the U.S.) policy uncertainty measure and six (10) Japanese exporting industries that were affected by changes in the Japanese (the U.S.) policy uncertainty measure. Several large industries were among the affected industries.