Saving not Spending: Indonesia’s Domestic Demand Problem

Indonesian income per capita has risen rapidly in the past 10 years. The growth in income, combined with an expanding middle class, has corresponded with strong growth in retail sales. Recently, however, this trend has started to change. Consumption growth has been relatively stable, but retail sales are growing more slowly than in the past. In order to develop a clearer picture of consumer spending in Indonesia, we discuss differences in spending behaviour across two income groups—lower-middle income and upper-high income. Consumption varies across income groups, so saving and investment patterns may also vary. We find that the upper-high income group, despite having more income than in the past, is less willing to invest and borrow than previously, and that the lower-middle income group continues to suffer from a lack of purchasing power. Meanwhile, investors are simply postponing investments, preferring to take a ‘wait and see’ approach. Excess saving can be economically problematic. If effective demand is too weak, it can have negative consequences for long-term economic growth. We begin, however, by surveying recent economic developments in Indonesia, focusing on the third quarter of 2017. Indonesia’s current rate of economic growth (5.1% year on year) places it among the world’s fastest-growing large economies, but the lack of acceleration is a concern: growth has not exceeded 6.0% since the second quarter of 2012. Despite this lack of acceleration, Indonesia has achieved macroeconomic and financial stability. The balance of payments has been improving since early 2016, with a narrow current account deficit—well below 3.0% of GDP—and a surplus trade balance. Exports grew by 17.3% in the third quarter of 2017, owing to rising commodity prices (which boosted export growth in both value and volume), while imports grew by 15.1%, although the impact on economic growth has so far been more moderate than in the commodity boom of 2000–2011. The growth in commodity exports has also benefited Kalimantan, Sumatra, and other commodity-rich regions. However, rising commodity prices come with some caveats. They might boost growth for a short period, but they raise the challenge of making this growth sustainable. We have seen this many times in the past. Increasing institutional capacity to better implement policy initiatives, for one, will help to deliver sustainable, high-quality economic growth.     

我国城乡居民储蓄的增长效应研究：基于OLG模型

文章在OLG模型框架下研究储蓄与经济增长的均衡关系,结果表明,储蓄对经济增长的影响存在跨期效应,上一期的储蓄对当期的经济增长产生正向影响。在实证层面,采用省级面板数据发现,1979—2011年我国的居民储蓄能显著解释中国经济增长原因,并且呈现出东部、中部、西部基本一致的特征。文章研究表明,过去30多年我国城乡居民的节俭行为实际上为中国经济增长发挥了重要作用。     

增长质量、阶段特征与经济转型的关联度

基于现阶段我国大力提倡循环经济、绿色经济增长模式背景,通过分解经济增长质量指数的结构,突破以往经济增长质量评价研究建立在传统经济增长模式下的不足,将循环经济、绿色经济思想引入经济增长质量评价研究中,构建经济增长质量指数结构与经济增长模式转型关系图以及能够反映新的经济增长模式的经济增长质量评价指标体系。以1995~2006年为例,测评经济增长质量总指数及其分指数,据此判断我国经济增长质量的状况及增长模式的进程,以期为我国经济增长模式转型研究提供一个实证分析框架。     

21世纪中国经济增长问题的若干思考与建议

一定的经济增长方式直接影响着经济增长的质量、速度及效益,不同的经济增长方式会产生截然不同的经济效果。我国粗放型经济增长方式至今并未实现彻底性转变,高投入、高能耗、低效益的粗放特征仍然十分明显。粗放型经济增长方式不仅降低经济效益,而且危害生态环境,引发资源高耗、能源紧缺、环境污染、生态破坏等一系列问题,这说明我国粗放型经济增长方式已经走到了尽头,转变经济增长方式迫在眉睫。     

相对剥夺对劳动力迁移的影响--理论、实证分析及政策评述

相对剥夺影响劳动力迁移的相关文献主要从理论、实证及政策建议三个方面展开。理论研究表明收入、住房、社会资源等相对匮乏的个体（或家庭）会产生相对剥夺感,这种剥夺感是促进其迁移的重要原因,学者们从单期和多期角度论述了上述观点的正确性;实证研究中,通过科学的选择维度、合理地定义相对剥夺、选择恰当的计量模型来验证相对剥夺对劳动力迁移的影响,结果表明相对剥夺是影响迁移的重要解释变量;政策方面指出如果想要改变某地的迁移行为,不仅要考虑个体（或家庭）的绝对收入水平,还要考虑该地区的收入分配状况。未来应在群内和群间剥夺的多维性、情感剥夺和风险考虑等方面进行更加深入的研究。     

The monetary history of Rome

Abstract

The internationally-renowned Swedish historian, Professor Sture Bolin, has devoted himself, ever since his youth, to the problems of monetary history and to the study of coinage as a historical source. His doctoral thesis on the finds of Roman coins in independent Germany ¹ Fynden av romerska mynt i det fria Germanien. appeared in 1926; it was an important work which, by using numismatic source material, contributed considerably to the understanding of the relations between the Roman Empire and the Germans. After the publication of this work he continued to study the functions of money in Antiquity and the Middle Ages, and this research resulted in the publication, between 1939 and 1957, of a number of important papers. During the same period he worked steadily on a major work designed to provide a synthesis of the problems relating to the state and its currency from Antiquity to the Middle Ages. The first volume of this work, State and Currency in the Roman Empire to 300 A.D. ² Almqvist & Wiksell, Stockholm, 1958, p. 357, 45 Sw. Kr. , has now been published. The book is the product of a lifelong study of a central theme of economic history, and it unquestionably justifies the great efforts expended on it. It is a work of genius, epoch-making in its field, throwing completely new light upon Roman monetary history, and marking a culminating point in this branch of study.     

Analysis on Quantity Characteristics of the Fluctuation of Economic Cycle in Shaanxi Province since Reform and Opening-up

This paper analyzes the quantity characteristics of the fluctuation of economic cycle through GDP growing rate in Shaanxi province since reform and opening-up. The results are that the fluctuation of economic cycle in Shaanxi province keeps in step with the nationwide fluctuation, economic growth is powerful, the stabilization of economic growth and the ability of economic sustainable development are strengthened, but the macroscopic control demands to be steady in the second half of the 1990s and the reform dynamics is not deep enough. Meanwhile, we aim at the economy in current China, which is in a new round of expansion issue of cycle and develops at a stable speed, so the paper suggests that the government should adopt neutral macroscopic economic policies.     

Updated estimates of UK GDP from the income side, 1841–1920

This article brings together some of the improvements to GDP estimates from the income side since the publication of Charles Feinstein's 1972 volume National income, expenditure and output of the United Kingdom, 1855–1965. Many of the improvements and refinements were made by Feinstein himself and this paper makes a start in bringing the different elements together, focusing chiefly on reconstructing the income-based estimates for the period 1841–1920. The new data are then used to comment on several features of the late nineteenth-century UK economy, considering both the trend and cyclical path of the economy. The new data, coupled with modern de-trending methods, suggest that there was a long-term slowing of the UK economy from the late nineteenth century, starting from the 1870s. To undertake the trend–cycle decomposition, we employ a wavelets methodology to describe the time–varying features of trends and cycles over this period.     

中国经济转型时期经济增长与就业增长的探析

从1978年的改革开放开始,中国进入新一轮经济转型。新一轮经济转型首先从经济体制改革出发,逐步实现了从计划到市场的转变,当然其中还包括经济结构的调整等一系列经济与社会的变革。本文揭示了经济转型时期高增长、低就业的客观现实,分析了这一现象产生的原因,并提出了解决高增长、低就业的一些政策建议。     

驳“美国经济衰退与中国储蓄率高有关”论调

近年来,美国不断指责中国有意低估人民币,称中国是导致全球金融危机的原因之一,最近又指出美国经济问题是因为中国的储蓄率过高而造成的。面对这种指责,文章对美国经济问题和中国高储蓄率分别进行了深层研究,明确了在两者之间并无实质关系。美国对中国储蓄率的指责是在寻找不存在的借口。     

后世博时期促进上海经济长效增长的地方税研究

文章分别从需求与产业两个视角对影响后世博时期上海经济长效增长的决定因素进行实证分析,结果表明:(1)消费需求是直接带动上海经济增长的主力军;(2)产业结构优化调整与经济增长存在长期稳定关系;(3)产业结构优化调整是促进上海经济增长的重要原因.在此实证结论的支持下,文章提出运用税收政策引导和支持新兴产业发展、加快地方税体系建设、完善和实施有利于消费结构升级的财税政策等建议,以促进上海市经济长效增长.     

Race, Inequality, and Anti-Chinese Violence in the Netherlands Indies

Movements in wages for subjects of the Netherlands Indies for the period 1908-1917 are analyzed. The analysis reveals a sharp increase in inequality between the ethnic indigenous and Chinese communities between 1910 and 1916, the period of the birth and rise of the anti-Chinese Sarekat Islam movements in Java. It also reveals that this inequality was most severe in a number of residencies of Java, where the movements first took hold. While there is statistical evidence of a link between interracial wage differentials and anti-Chinese violence, there is no link between absolute wages and violence. This evidence suggests that “relative deprivation” is important in understanding ethnic tension.     

经济转型与包容性增长的关联度

包容性增长是时代发展的必然要求,体现了公平与正义的科学内涵,是一种理想的经济发展方式。在经济转型深化阶段,中国经济社会问题的解决迫切需要以包容性增长理念为引导,将经济转型、政治转型、社会转型、文化转型等多种转型相互融合与协同推进,切实转变经济发展方式,才能实现国民经济的持续良好发展。     

江苏省R&D投入带动经济增长的时滞分析

基于江苏省1998年至2009年的R＆D投入与经济增长的相关数据,文章研究了江苏省R＆D投入带动经济增长的时滞性。运用灰色关联分析方法构建了一种R＆D投入带动经济增长的时滞分析模型,结果显示,江苏省R＆D投入带动经济增长的时滞为3年左右,随着滞后年份的延长这种带动作用呈现下降的趋势,R＆D活动具有明显的趋利性。从科技战略的长远发展考虑,江苏省既要继续增加R＆D投入总量,也要重视不同研究性质经费投入的协调发展。     

关于提高时间效益的几点分析

在物质资料的生产过程中,任何劳动成果的获得都是物化劳动和活劳动的消耗,同时也都是时间的消耗。因此,我们在评价经济效益大小时,必须重视对时间效益的分析。本文对提高时间效益含义、劳动时间和劳动成果的变化关系的量的关系、提高时间效益途径等三方面进行粗浅分析。