论超主权国际货币的构建对世界经济的影响

金融危机的不断发生暴露出现行的国际货币体系的诸多弊端和不足,构建超主权国际货币则是国际货币制度改革的方向。汇率的稳定以及国际储备资产价值的稳定对于一国国际经济的发展尤为重要,为此世界各国希望有一种有效的国际储备货币以减轻汇率波动所带来的负面影响,这种国际储备货币便是超主权货币。文章从国际货币体系对国际贸易和国际金融的影响方面进行了探讨,进一步分析了超主权国际货币的构建对世界经济的影响。     

美国金融危机后的国际货币体系重构

文章提出了金融危机后国际货币体系未来演化路径的构想,并详细的分析了该演进路径形成的机理和原因。短期内,美元单一货币霸权仍将一定程度的延续;中期内,国际货币体系将走向多元化;而在长期,超主权国家货币将成为国际货币体系的演进方向。最后,文章据此提出了我国的应对建议。     

Will the role of the dollar as the international reserve currency be challenged?

The actual role of the US Dollar as the international reserve currency is an essential part of a financial architecture, which was conceived after World War II. Since then the world-wide economic, financial and political landscape has fundamentally changed. The article describes through which mechanisms the actual financial architecture will be challenged and what will be the consequences and occasional outcome.     

一种全新的区域货币合作形式初探——类似SDR的货币创造

文章指出，建立一个有效的区域货币合作机制，最关键的是保证区域内各目都拥有充分的国际清偿力，其核心之一是作为国际储备基础的本位币选择问题。SDR（特别提款权）的出现给我们提供了一条新的改革思路：这种国际清偿力，不一定来自某个中心国家的货币，也不一定是一系列国家的货币所组成的“篮子”，它可以是一种在关键时刻可以发挥支付功能的“信用”。这种合作形式对缺乏资金且经济基础薄弱的发展中国家而言具有相当大的吸引力。     

A suggested reformulation of the theory of optimal currency areas

In contrast to conventional analyses of monetary union between two particular countries or sets of countries, this paper treats the possible expansion of a given currency area as a continuous variable ranging from zero to one; zero if there is no expansion and one if all sources of imports and competition in trade are included in the union. The optimal order in which new members are admitted to the union then becomes a central aspect of the problem. Along with other advantages, this approach makes it easier to defend the argument that many nations are too small for form optimal currency areas. The demands upon the origin of the shocks, factor mobility, and political organization are smaller.     

保税港区货物流转的法律瓶颈及其对策

保税港区是我国扩大国际贸易的重要方式。国际中转、国际配送和国际采购是国务院确定的保税港区五大功能中的三个,三者均属于货物流转的范畴。保税港区开展货物流转有着政策的和法律的优势,仍面临着各种挑战。文章认为,为促进保税港区的货物流转,应该从法律上做三项工作：统一适用《联合国国际货物买卖公约》;明确减免税费的额度;规定国际货运代理的地位与责任。     

The theory of optimum currency areas,trade adjustment,and trade

This article seeks to provide a closer integration of the theory of optimum currency areas with the theory of international trade. A currency area is treated as a continuous variable ranging from zero to one: zero if there is no enlargement, and some positive value otherwise, corresponding exactly to the percentge of trade in the enlarged area. The benefits of widening a currency area are then regarded, in terms of conventional trade theory, as equivalent to a reduction in transportation cost. The costs of widening a currency area are seen, instead, with reference to open economy macroeconomics, as a drop in the speed of adjustment of the terms of trade to their long-run equilibrium level. On this basis, it is shown that the marginal benefits of enlarging a currency area fall, the marginal costs rise, and an optimum size arises. But this size depends heavily on the optimal composition of the members.CEPR     

The spill over effects of monetary policies and the welfare effects of the currency appreciation in an open economy -A simple discussion

Based on new open-economy macroeconomics, this paper provides simple discussions about the equilibrium conditions of labour market, goods markets and money market in a two-country world model economy. Given one-period wage sticky assumption, the following conclusions are obtained, the monetary policy can impact labour supply and thereby the equilibrium of labour market in the short run; The spill over effect of monetary policy in home and foreign countries implies an important international transmission channel in terms of equilibrium relationships between home and foreign countries, which also demonstrates the welfare effects of currency appreciation.     

后危机时期提升我国国际金融话语权的对策研究

我们应抓住国际货币体系大变革、美国的金融模式失去吸引力、中国国际金融实力显著提升这些难得的历史发展机遇,通过积极参与国际金融治理机制改革、人民币国际化、扶持民族信用评级机构等措施提升我国国际金融的话语权。     

探析东京湾区建设经验对粤港澳大湾区发展的启示

推动和促进粤港澳大湾区的建设是我国对外开放战略发展的重要一环。本文从粤港澳大湾区的建设出发,通过与世界其他三大湾区的发展情况进行对比以及对东京湾区发展路径的分析,为我国粤港澳大湾区的建设提供经验启示。     

国际投机资本流动对我国的影响及对策

近几年我国国际投机资本大量流入,引起人们的广泛关注.为此,应采取以下措施:进一步阻止国际投机资本大量流入我国;加强对已流入国际投机资本的监管和疏导;积极稳妥地推进资本项目开放;进一步完善我国外汇管理制度,逐步实现利率市场化,保持充足的外汇储备等,以维护我国的经济和金融安全.     

The Future of International Liquidity and the Role of China

This paper analyzes the consequences of the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi for the global monetary system and its possible ascension to reserve currency status. In an unstable and financially integrated world, governments＇ precautionary demand for reserve assets is likely to increase. But the world then risks a third crisis of the global reserve system, another re-run of the Triffin paradox, with an ever-growing emerging-world insurance demand loaded onto a small group of ever more strained net debt suppliers. Two ways to avoid this outcome would entail either expanding the supply of credible reserve liquidity to include some large emerging-market providers, or finding ways to manage emerging-market risks so as to moderate the perceived need for insurance, and China would have to loom large in both solutions. This paper analyzes the consequences of the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi for the global monetary system and its possible ascension to reserve currency status. It argues that if the process proves feasible, despite the difficult hurdles along the way, the results of internationalization would be constructive, both for China and the rest of the world. In today＇s global monetary system, the emergence of the renminbi （along with other developed- and emerging-market currencies） as a potential reserve currency would expand and diversify the supply of reserve assets, enabling central banks to maintain large buffers against financial shocks while allowing the United States to avoid issuing, as now, a large and growing bulk of the world＇s safe and liquid claims, and thus bearing the burden of an ever-expanding, and ultimately questionable, debt to the rest of the world.     

关键货币境外余额的国际政治经济学——美国的境外美元管理及其对中国的影响

关键货币境外余额是重要的国际经济变量,它不仅会影响关键货币的国际地位和全球金融市场稳定,也关系到境外关键货币持有国的经济稳定和储备资产安全。关键货币国通过经济、外交甚至军事手段对境外货币余额的规模、资产配置、地区分布以及持有者结构实施管理,以便实现对外融资、获取经济安全和榨取财富等多重目标。在金融危机背景下,基于经济安全、国际博弈和对外融资的目的,美国大致会阶段性地吸引美元回流并调控其在国外的分布,但美元霸权地位和美国国内的两党政治体制将使其境外美元余额的规模在长期内进一步扩张,因此人民币近期仍面临升值压力,欧洲和新兴市场国家金融动荡将会持续甚至加剧。随着中国国内资产价格的下跌,美元的升值和回流在中期时段内可能会冲击中国宏观经济稳定;如果美国不能控制其财政赤字,中国将长期面临美债和美元违约的巨大风险。中国需要降低宏观脆弱性,加速调整经济发展模式,从根本上摆脱美元陷阱。     

苏北地区发展现代农业的多重困境与突破路径

我国由传统农业向现代农业的转变不是一蹴而就的，而是一个不断摸索、克服困难、勇于创新的过程。苏北地区作为江苏农业主产区，我国重要的农产品生产基地，在发展现代农业的过程中，遇到多重困境。文章旨在找出苏北地区发展现代农业存在的问题，并探讨解决问题的出路。     

国际货币体系改革的集体行动与二十国集团的作用

作为一种重要的国际公共产品,国际货币体系的改革是典型的集体行动。从历史的角度看,国际货币体系改革的集体行动可以分为"霸权空位型"、"霸权主导型"以及"霸权参与型"三类,影响其成败的主要因素包括霸权状态、共同利益诉求、集体行动的约束力以及对国际货币体系的判断。鉴于在今后相当长时期内,现行"美元体制"的可持续性以及未来世界经济形势的不确定性,国际货币体系改革的集体行动应该更加注重设立短期而非长期性的目标,其短期目标应该是"控制失衡"和"抑制美元风险"。目前,二十国集团(G20)机制已成为推进国际货币体系改革的重要平台,以其推动现行国际货币体系的改革既有艰巨性,亦有可行性。共同利益基础是G20推进现行国际货币体系改革的主要立足点,坚持集体行动原则、通过制度化建设增强决策执行力、强化国际经济政策协调是G20机制充分发挥作用的重要途径。中国应避免单独直接面对或挑战美国的核心利益,而是应更多地利用G20这个重要平台实现自身的利益诉求,增强自身在推动国际货币体系改革进程中的地位与影响力。     

大国协调与国际安全治理

大国协调是大国共同管理国际冲突与危机的一种多边安全机制。它主要通过会议外交和协商、共识来决策,并依据一致性、合法性、责任性、包容性和自我克制等共有规则与规范行事。从发展进程看,它经历了应对军事安全的传统大国协调和应对综合安全的新大国协调两个不同历史时期。由于大国协调在维持国际和平和解决重大国际危机中发挥着无可替代的作用,因此已成为国际安全治理的主渠道。目前的新大国协调既是对传统大国协调的重要延续,又出现了一些新的变化,如安全议题的多领域、会议机制的多轨道和常设性、成员数量的增多、规则与规范的低法律化和非强制性等。总体上看,在当前的国际环境中,新大国协调比传统大国协调更容易推行,但也存在诸多现实问题,因而必须从合法性、授权性和集中性诸方面予以改进。合法性主要是增强法律化和责任性;扩大授权性可以与权威国际组织缔结成一种委托-代理的关系;集中性的核心是建立一种更具内聚性的新的大国协调,即全球治理中心机制。     

解读西方“定量宽松”政策与中国的对应

继2009年3月12日瑞士央行入市干预瑞士法郎加速“货币贬值”后,3月18日关联储宣布购买3000亿美元长期国债和1．25万亿美元抵押贷款证券,就此西方进入了“定量宽松”货币政策时期。为应对西方“定量宽松”货币政策的出台和加快国际货币体制的改革,中国人民银行行长周小川提出的在国际货币基金组织（IMF）现有的特别提款权（SDR）基础上,构建“超主权国际储备货币”的建议在经济学界引起了广泛的热议。     

House Prices and the Stance of Monetary Policy: The Case of Korea

Abstract

This paper is an empirical investigation on whether the Bank of Korea should respond to the housing price developments in conducting monetary policy. For that aim, we construct a small scale empirical model of the Korean economy, simulate the estimated model with a set of alternative monetary policy rules, and compare the stabilization performances of those rules. There turns out to be ample room for further stabilization of inflation and output, if the central bank shifts from the historically conducted monetary policy rule to the optimal rule. The stabilization gains under the optimal rule, however, are not attributable to additional policy indicators (such as housing price inflation) the optimal rule involves. Rather, the optimal rule improves upon the historical one because the former takes a quite different reaction scheme toward the historical policy indicators. Moreover, as long as the Bank of Korea maintains appropriate reactions to the historical policy indicators, housing price inflation does not contain much extra information for further stabilization     

跨国次区域经济合作区与自由贸易区的分析——以GMS和CAFTA为例

作为区域经济一体化的一种新形式,跨国次区域经济合作区与传统的区域经济一体化组织有诸多不同。文章通过对跨国次区域经济合作区与典型传统的区域经济一体化组织—自由贸易区的分析比较,认为跨国次区域经济合作会在很大程度上促进相应的区域经济一体化合作的新发展。     

中华自由贸易区:从假设到实践的可能性

面对区域经济一体化浪潮,内地与港澳、台湾分别签署了经济一体化协定,进而为两岸四地经济整合创造了条件,"中华自由贸易区"有可能从假设走向实践。分析表明,整体上四地经济一体化对各个经济体的影响是正面的,将促进经济和贸易的大幅增长。在此基础上,对建立"中华自由贸易区"的可能性、主要障碍进行了分析,并提出了合作模式、内外部关系等具体设想。