ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS AND KOREAN TRADE DYNAMICS

Since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Korean international trade has gone up substantially in both volume and trade balances. The improvement is largely due to an expansion of international markets through various bilateral trade agreements and the structural changes in Korean exchange rates. This article investigates the exchange rate–trade balance dynamics, popularly known as the J‐Curve phenomenon. Employing the bounds‐testing approach to cointegration and error‐correction modeling on Korean bilateral trade for the pre‐ and post‐Asian crisis periods, the study finds that support for the strict version of the J‐Curves has been fading after the crisis. While the weaker version of J‐Curve is generally supported in both pre‐ and post‐crisis sample periods, we also notice patterns such as M, N, or W‐Curves. There exists a long‐run relationship among the Korean exchange rates, domestic income, foreign income, and Korean trading balances. (JEL F14, F32)     

SAVINGS MOBILIZATION,FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND LIBERALIZATION: THE CASE OF MALAYSIA

This paper attempts to identify the key factors behind Malaysia's remarkable savings performance. Drawing on the life cycle theory, the saving function is estimated by incorporating other relevant structural features and institutional settings of the Malaysian economy into the specification. Particular emphasis has been placed on the roles of financial factors in mobilizing funds in the private sector. The results suggest that financial deepening and increased banking density tend to encourage private savings. Development of insurance markets and liberalization of the financial system, however, tend to exert a dampening effect on private savings.     

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRADE OPENNESS

This paper empirically investigates the interaction between financial development and trade openness through simultaneous‐equation systems. The identification and estimation of the systems rely on the methodology of identification through heteroskedasticity proposed by Rigobon (2003). Using a panel consisting of 70 countries over the period 1960–2007, we find a two‐way causal relationship between financial development and trade openness. A better‐developed financial sector induces higher openness to trade, while higher openness in goods market stymies financial development. And such findings hold well for low‐income, high‐inflation, or low‐governance countries.     

DOHA DEVELOPMENT ROUND: REACHING BEYOND TRADE LIBERALIZATION

Abstract.  While the WTO process of multilateral trade liberalization encounters increasing resistance, in part because the most difficult issues have finally risen to the top of the agenda, market-based forces are contributing to international economic integration. One of the most potent is cross-border production networks. This paper explores the implications of such networks for trade policies and development strategies. It argues that participation in production networks requires trade policy adjustments and domestic reforms that can and should be undertaken unilaterally and that such changes will improve the climate for WTO negotiations.     

TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND RACIAL ANIMUS

Since the year 2000, the number of recorded hate groups in the United States has increased by more than 50 %. Some argue that the strain caused by unemployment or other socioeconomic stressors can play a critical role in the prevalence of extremist groups and crimes. We examine whether a change in U.S. policy to normalize trade relations with China, which fueled a surge in import competition that led to higher levels of unemployment, affected the presence of hate crimes. Using a difference‐in‐differences model and an event‐study framework, we find that areas most exposed to import competition experienced an increase in the number of anti‐Black hate crimes. We also find a qualitatively similar effect on the number of active hate groups in response to import competition. This result holds pre‐ and post‐the Great Recession and is consistent across levels of aggregation. The results are consistent and robust to various controls and specifications. (JEL F13, F16, Z13)     

TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND COMPENSATION*

Liberalization harms some groups while generating aggregate benefits. We consider various labor market policies that might be used to compensate those who lose from freer trade. Our goal is to find the policy that compensates each group of losers at the lowest cost to the economy. We argue that wage subsidies should be used to compensate those who bear the adjustment costs triggered by liberalization whereas employment subsidies should be used to compensate those who remain trapped in the previously protected sector. Our analysis indicates that the cost of compensation is low, provided that the right policy is used.     

TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND THE EXTENSIVE MARGIN

Trade barriers can lead to the disappearance of products and impose huge costs. Allowing for the realistic possibility that imported products are substituted by domestic varieties this paper finds that the cost of protection that allows for disappearance of products, the 'Romer cost,' is higher below a tariff threshold. This threshold depends on the substitutability of domestic for foreign products. This is important for developing countries where inferior technology leads to poor substitutability and traditional calculations underestimate the cost. Analysis of new varieties trade after the Indian liberalization supports the findings in the context of a developing country.     

资本账户自由化、信贷扩张与系统性银行危机风险*

本文研究在资本账户自由化下，信贷扩张与资本流入对于系统性银行危机风险的影响。利用89个国家1973—2016年的长面板数据，并控制影响银行危机风险多项因素后，研究发现资本账户自由化有助于降低银行危机风险。进一步研究发现，FDI流入能显著降低银行危机风险；适量的股权投资流入有助于增强银行业稳定性；但当股权投资大量流入时，伴随着信贷过度扩张和资产泡沫，银行危机风险急剧增加；较低的债权投资流入对银行业稳定性无显著影响，但当超过一定规模时，银行危机风险显著增加。     

FACTOR ENDOWMENTS, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, AND THE FUTURE OF APEC TRADE PATTERNS

The heads of state of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) nations have committed member nations to remove all barriers to trade both among themselves and with respect to the rest of the world by 2020. The present paper uses a simple econometric model of bilateral trade flows based on country size, relative factor endowments, and trade barriers of importing as well as exporting countries to estimate the shares by country of origin in imports of each of the 16 major APEC countries and the rest of the world for each of 45 commodity groups comprising world trade in commodities. The estimates reveal that APEC trade would be expanded by 13% with complete liberalization of tariff barriers, by an additional 5% if nontariff barriers are also removed, and by another 4% if the rest of the world would also remove all barriers to trade. Variants on this base scenario show that such trade expansion could be substantially reduced were trade liberalization, capital growth, or both to be reduced in the countries affected by the Asian financial crisis. ( JEL Fl, F17)     

HOUSING MARKETS AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE COMPLEX DYNAMICS OF A CREDIT SHOCK

We analyze the multiple channels of influence that global financial crisis‐induced credit restrictions had on New Zealand's subnational housing markets. The dynamics caused by the credit shock are compared to those caused by a migration shock, a more common form of housing shock in New Zealand. We focus on the impacts on two outcome variables, house prices and housing supply, within a structural time series model of regional housing markets. Both shocks cause substantial and prolonged cyclical adjustments in each variable. Similar cyclical dynamics could complicate the conduct of macroprudential policies designed to affect bank credit allocation. (JEL E32, E44, R21)     

资本账户自由化、信贷扩张与系统性银行危机风险

本文研究在资本账户自由化下,信贷扩张与资本流入对于系统性银行危机风险的影响。利用89个国家1973—2016年的长面板数据,并控制影响银行危机风险多项因素后,研究发现资本账户自由化有助于降低银行危机风险。进一步研究发现,FDI流入能显著降低银行危机风险;适量的股权投资流入有助于增强银行业稳定性;但当股权投资大量流入时,伴随着信贷过度扩张和资产泡沫,银行危机风险急剧增加;较低的债权投资流入对银行业稳定性无显著影响,但当超过一定规模时,银行危机风险显著增加。     

TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS AND TRADE LIBERALIZATION*

This paper examines the gains from cooperative agreements on transportation infrastructure investments when there are terms of trade and technological spillovers between countries. In a two ‐country model, cooperation on investment levels will result in a lower level of transport costs. However, the cooperative equilibrium may have a higher or lower level of infrastructure investment between the partner countries in the case of preferential liberalization. The paper also addresses the desirability of linking trade and infrastructure agreements when investment choices can be used strategically.     

主权信用评级与金融安全

本文分析了金融开放条件下主权信用评级波动对金融市场安全的影响和传递机制,探讨了主权信用评级、国际投资银行以及投资者预期等因素在国际金融危机中扮演的角色,并从加强对外资机构在华信用评级业务范围和评级流程的监督管理、推进中国信用评级机构国际化建设、理顺评级过程中所涉各方利益、探索投资者的法律保障等5个方面,就促进中国主权信用评级公正和稳定提出建议。     

TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND FIRM PERFORMANCE: THE CASE OF THAILAND

After the Asian Financial Crisis, Thailand's trade policy has been driven by the proliferation of free trade agreements (FTAs). We use firm‐level data to estimate the effects of reductions in tariffs applied to Thai imports on Thai firms. Reductions in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) tariffs were associated with increasing firm employment and exports, lower ASEAN‐China import tariffs were associated with increasing firm employment, while lower tariffs from the Japan‐Thailand FTA were associated with reductions in firm employment and increasing likelihood of International Organization for Standardization (ISO) certifications. FTAs were associated with a decrease in firm R&D spending. (JEL F1, F2, F6)     

SPECIAL INTERESTS AND FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION: THE CASE OF MEXICO

Financial liberalization is often believed to enhance economic growth. Yet in many cases a few powerful incumbents seem to capture most of the gains from the reform. In this paper, I construct a model with endogenous formation of special interest groups that could reap most of the benefits of financial liberalization. In particular, these groups lobby to limit entry by other firms, while taking advantage of improved borrowing opportunities. I then use the model to study the Mexican financial liberalization of 1988. Analysis of firm‐level panel data on manufacturing plants reveals patterns suggested by the model. Specifically, large firms in more concentrated or more corrupt sectors benefit more from liberalization. In addition, domestically owned firms gain more than firms with foreign ownership. I also propose a new way to measure corruption at the industry level based on the Mexican 10% profit sharing rule.     

经济政策不确定性、产权性质与商业信用

本文以经济政策不确定性为研究出发点,选取2007年第1季度-2014年第4季度沪深A股的上市公司,讨论了经济政策不确定性对企业商业信用规模的冲击。实证结果表明：当经济政策不确定性较高时,企业获得的商业信用规模总体上有缩小的趋势;国有企业会凭借产权优势抑制企业商业信用规模的下降;而较快的经济增长速度和较差的金融市场环境也会抑制企业商业信用规模的下降。本文的研究结果表明,经济政策不确定性对企业的商业信用规模确实存在冲击,商业信用作为企业维持经营的重要手段需引起特别重视。     

LIBERALIZATION OF EUROPEAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS: SECTORAL DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURAL MUTATIONS

ABSTRACT ** :  This contribution intends to draw up an assessment of structural changes in the telecommunications sector impelled by the European policy of liberalization. Deep transformations with contrasted results have occurred. A strong differentiation in offer of services and a considerable fall in cost appears. After a strong growth, however, investment sharply decreased with the financial crisis. Employment has become a variable of adjustment for companies subjected to strong risks due to the economic situation. Lastly, the assertion of the universal service of telecommunications is accompanied by an important reduction of public service missions.     

DEBT CRISIS, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT, AND GROWTH: SOME POLICY CONSIDERATIONS

This paper analyzes some dynamic aspects of trade liberalization reforms within the context of the debt crisis. In particular, the paper discusses issues concerning intensity of liberalization, speed of trade reform, and the interaction between liberalization and stabilization. It deals with analytical issues and draws from the empirical experiences of some highly indebted Latin American countries.