The unintended consequences of easy money: How access to finance impedes entrepreneurship

This paper investigates the manner in which economic policy promotes entrepreneurship, and how this relates to the monetary sources of the business cycle. Whilst access to finance is commonly seen as a crucial means to generate economic growth, efforts to expand the money supply beyond the stock of real savings leads to systemic crises. Therefore the admirable policy goal of promoting more credit for entrepreneurs—whether through access to finance, SME support or regional development—can lead to negative unintended consequences.     

Smith's theory of actions and the moral significance of unintended consequences

Abstract

An important clue to the ambiguity in Smith's attitudes towards commercial society may lie in his disaffection with natural distributions; with distributions based on unintended consequences. The absence of proportionality between motives and outcomes dooms the morality of commercial society, not the mere absence of an ethical dimension to human character. Through the analysis of actions, we find correspondence between the three economic states of the Wealth of Nations and the three social states of the Theory of Moral Sentiments. Thus, re-distribution is important in the moral evaluation of commercial systems. Unintended consequences are neither a source of moral strength nor a safeguard against injustice.     

No time to look after the kids: The unintended consequences of export expansion on child health*

In this paper, we examine the effect of export expansion on the health of children under the age of 6 years in China. Using the CHNS survey, we exploit trade exposure variation among regions after China's entry into the WTO to construct a difference-in-differences and instrumental variable identification. We show that 1% increase in export expansion over GDP share exacerbates child' illness rates by 0.6%, and the effect is more pronounced for less educated parents. The increasing workloads and having less time to look after the child account for the increasing illness rates, especially for mothers.     

The Lerner index and revenue maximization

Based on profit-maximizing behaviour, the usual interpretation of the Lerner index is that a zero value reflects competitive behaviour, while a positive value is associated with market power. We investigate to what extent the usual interpretation of the Lerner index remains valid in a setting where firms do not pursue profit maximization, but instead maximize revenues subject to a minimum-profit constraint. We show that a positive Lerner index still indicates market power, but that the magnitude of a positive Lerner index can no longer be used to determine how much market power there is. Furthermore, extra information would be required to draw conclusions about the presence or absence of market power when the Lerner index is zero or negative. We discuss the empirical implications of our results.     

The unintended harms of infrastructure: Opium and road construction in Afghanistan

This study provides evidence that infrastructure investment can encourage economic activity through illicit pathways. I examine this relationship in the context of Afghanistan, where I show that the construction of the country's largest modern infrastructure project, a 2,200 kilometer highway known as the A1 or Ring Road, led to significant increases in local opium cultivation over the past decade. Estimates from a two-way fixed effects model that exploits spatial and temporal variation in district-level poppy cultivation and proximity to the road suggest that the introduction of a highway to a district is associated with a 650 hectare increase in poppy cultivation in the subsequent year. This cultivation increases the longer a district has access to the road: Production in the second and third years rises by 750 and 900 hectares over pre-highway levels, respectively. Estimates also suggest that improved highway access leads Afghan farmers to substitute away from the production of legal crops towards opium, and that more farmers grow opium as their primary income-generating crop. These findings suggest that in nations where the rule of law is limited and opportunities for legal livelihoods remain scarce, investments in physical infrastructure can inadvertently incentivize illegal economic activity.     

关于新收入准则的比较

新收入准则的颁布，更加规范了企业在销售商品、提供劳务收入和他人使用本企业资产的变易中形成的收入的会计核算和相关信息披露。如何学好新准则，掌握其精髓，适应自己的工作岗位是广大会计人员迫切需要解决的问题。文章对新旧收入准则以及新收入准则与国际会计准则进行了比较分析，以方便广大会计人员对新收入准则的学习应用。     

The macroeconomic consequences of disasters

Natural disasters have a statistically observable adverse impact on the macro-economy in the short-run and costlier events lead to more pronounced slowdowns in production. Yet, interestingly, developing countries, and smaller economies, face much larger output declines following a disaster of similar relative magnitude than do developed countries or bigger economies. A close study of the determinants of these adverse macroeconomic output costs reveals several interesting patterns. Countries with a higher literacy rate, better institutions, higher per capita income, higher degree of openness to trade, and higher levels of government spending are better able to withstand the initial disaster shock and prevent further spillovers into the macro-economy. These all suggest an increased ability to mobilize resources for reconstruction. Financial conditions also seem to be of importance; countries with more foreign exchange reserves, and higher levels of domestic credit, but with less-open capital accounts appear more robust and better able to endure natural disasters, with less adverse spillover into domestic production.     

The unintended composition effect of the subnational government fiscal rules: The case of Italian municipalities

Although numerical fiscal rules may be introduced to achieve several objectives, to date the maintenance of fiscal sustainability is their predominant goal. This is particularly true at subnational level; maintaining fiscal discipline in a decentralized setting is challenging and subnational government fiscal rules are considered one of the most valid solutions to the problem. While theoretical and empirical literature has mainly focused on their effectiveness in containing subnational deficit and/or debt, little attention has been paid to the possible trade–offs and side effects of the rules on the composition of subnational expenditure. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap by exploiting the case of Italian municipalities, which have been subject for fifteen years (1999–2015) to a set of rules called Domestic Stability Pact. The Italian DSP framework – imposing rules only on municipalities above a population threshold (5000 inhabitants) – allows us to implement a quasi–experimental technique to investigate the unintended composition effects of the rules. A difference–in–discontinuities design permits to find rigorous empirical evidence that the switching in 2007 to rules which are more binding in terms of fiscal discipline leads to a recomposition of municipal expenditure against investment spending. The analysis is then integrated by evaluating the impact of the rules on six categories of investment expenditure. Investment in human capital and infrastructure seems to be the most affected.     

The revenue potential of a financial transaction tax for US financial markets

This paper estimates the revenue potential of a financial transaction tax (FTT) for US financial markets. We focus on analyzing the revenue potential of the Inclusive Prosperity Act that was introduced in the US House of Representatives in 2012 and the US Senate in 2015. The tax rates stipulated in this Act include 0.5% (50 basis points (bps)) for all stock transactions, 0.1% (10 bps) for all bond transactions and 0.005% (0.5 bps) on the notional value of all derivative trades. We examine three sets of evidence to generate potential revenue estimates: 1) the levels of transaction costs in US financial markets over time and within the range of financial market segments; 2) the extent of trading elasticities under various trading conditions; and 3) the current level of trading activity in US financial markets. Based on this evidence, we conclude that a US FTT operating at the tax rates stated above would generate about $220 billion per year, equal to about 1.2% of the current US GDP.     

试论地方财政收入质量

地方财政收入规模不适度、收入结构不合理、收入信息不真实是地方财政收入质量不高的主要表现；提高地方财政收入质量必须有适度的财政收入规模、合理的财政收入结构和真实的财政收入信息。     

The consequences of an unknown debt target

Several proposals to reduce U.S. debt reveal large differences in their targets. We examine how an unknown debt target affects economic activity using a real business cycle model in which Bayesian households learn about a state-dependent debt target in an endogenous tax rule. Recent papers use stochastic volatility shocks to study fiscal uncertainty. In our setup, the fiscal rule is time-varying due to unknown changes in the debt target. Households infer the current debt target from a noisy tax rule and jointly estimate the transition probabilities. Three key findings emerge from our analysis: (1) limited information about the debt target amplifies the effect of tax shocks through changes in expected tax rates; (2) the welfare losses are an order of magnitude larger when both the debt target state and transition matrix are unknown than when only the debt target state is unknown to households; (3) an unknown debt target likely reduced the stimulative effect of the ARRA and uncertainty about the sunset provision in the Bush tax cuts may have slowed the recovery and led to welfare losses.     

The economic consequences of euro-area macro-modelling shortcuts

Should euro-area economies be modelled in an aggregate (area-wide) fashion or in a disaggregate (multi-country) one? This article tackles that question from both statistical and economic viewpoint. From a statistical viewpoint, aggregation bias criteria are found to signal that the degree of structural heterogeneity among euro-area economies is such that the loss of information entailed by an aggregate modelling approach may be far from trifling. From an economic viewpoint, we investigate the following issue. Are those statistically detectable heterogeneities of any practical relevance when it comes to supporting monetary policy decision-making? To provide an answer to this question, we compute simple optimal monetary policy reaction functions on the basis of either an aggregate model or a disaggregate one, and compare the associated welfare losses. The results suggest that the welfare under-performance of an area-wide-model-based rule is not only nonnegligible, but also robust with respect to a number of sensitivity analyses.     

The effects of economic conditions and tax structures on state tax revenue flow

Tax portfolio literature has focused on deriving the optimal composition of the tax structure for a particular state. However, tax revenue flow is influenced by both tax structure and economic conditions which are unique for each state. Therefore, the literature has been unable to generalize the characteristics of optimal tax structures. This paper examines the contribution of a state's economic condition, as well as the tax structure, to the growth and variability of tax revenue flow. In addition, the optimal tax portfolio is studied for changes in revenue growth targets and economic conditions.     

核查待购企业的收入报表

收购企业是一项机会和风险都很大的市场活动.要想尽量降低收购企业的风险,必须仔细核查收入报表,以便准确了解企业的收支情况,消除帐面数字可能埋伏的虚假成分,确定企业真实的获利能力.本文针对收购企业面临的一些实际问题,探索销售收入、销售货物成本、销售毛利、营业费用总额、折旧费、利息和税后净收益等方面的核查重点,以及相应的方法和对策.     

旅行社价格战的博弈分析

旅行社是旅游产品设计、组织和销售的渠道商以及消费者之间的桥梁.旅行社对旅游业具有重要影响，旅行社之间的价格竞争日益严重，盈利率低。随着我国加入世贸组织，越来越多的外国旅行社进入我国、针对我国旅行社如何走出困境，本文从博弈角度分析旅行社的价格竞争及其对策。     

核查待购企业的收入报表

收购企业是一项机会和风险都很大的市场活动。要想尽量降低收购企业的风险，必须仔细棱查收入报表，以便准确了解企业的收支情况，消除帐面数字可能埋伏的虚假成分，确定企业真实的获利能力。本文针对收购企业面临的一些实际问题，探索销售收入、销售货物成本、销售毛利、营业费用总额、折旧费、利息和税后净收益等方面的棱查重点，以及相应的方法和对策。     

近年来我国的税收增长问题分析

经济决定税收,税收反作用于经济.1994年税制改革以来,我国的税收收入保持了较快的增长势头,税收收入的增长率一直高于GDP的增长率.本文从影响税收收入的主要因素入手来分析导致税收收入高速增长的原因.     

对我国财政规模现状的多角度估计

一、国内学者关于我国财政收入规模现状的种种估计 根据各种研究对财政收入范围的界定,可将其划分为小口径法、中口径法、大口径法三类。 1、小口径法 小口径法,是根据预算收入统计法来测算我国财政必要规模。预算收入法的最大优点是可以准确反映政府的实际可支配财力和宏观调