National Income Accounting and Public Policy

Modern national income accounting was designed in the early 20th century for the purpose of providing improved indicators about the performance of the economy so that government policy makers could better control the economy. The way that performance is measured affects the types of policies used to try to accomplish policy goals. Two attributes of national income accounting are analyzed for their effects on economic policy. First, government production is included in the national income accounts at cost, rather than at market value as private sector output is measured. This biases policy toward a larger public sector. Second, output is measured as a homogeneous dollar amount. This biases policy toward focusing on increasing quantities of inputs and outputs in the production process, rather than on innovation and entrepreneurship, which are the true engines of economic progress. Economic policy could be improved by focusing less on national income as an indicator of policy, and more on the underlying processes that foster economic progress.     

Foreign direct investment and inequality in developing countries: Does sector matter?

Scholars have studied the relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and within‐country income inequality in cross‐national contexts, but have not empirically investigated how FDI in different sectors might affect inequality in different ways. We use error correction models to analyze sectoral FDI data compiled from UNCTAD investment reports in 60 middle‐income countries from 1989 to 2010, arguing that FDI in services is more likely to be associated with inequality than FDI in other sectors. We argue that skill biases and changes in employment patterns associated with service sector investments can help explain these findings.     

Budget consolidation in a small open economy: a case study for Slovenia

In this article, we use the macroeconometric model SLOPOL10 to calculate simulations of the development of the Slovenian economy until 2030. Starting from the present favourable prospects of the European economies, the forecast is very optimistic but it can nevertheless be improved by optimal fiscal policies as calculated using the OPTCON2 algorithm. If a negative shock to world trade of a size comparable to the Great Recession occurs, it will entail a decline in GDP and a slow recovery. In this case, optimal fiscal policies should not act in an expansionary way as the effectiveness of fiscal policy with respect to output and employment is rather limited in a small open economy like Slovenia. Instead, the goal of budget consolidation will call for a more restrictive fiscal policy, at least if the shock is temporary.     

Simulation Analysis of Public Debt and Fiscal Deficit in Austria – Optimal Economic Policies for the Past and the Future

The macroeconometric simulation model AMOD1 and the optimization algorithm OPTCON are used to evaluate fiscal policies for Austria since the late seventies. In particular, the question of optimal (debt stabilizing) fiscal policies for the past and for the future is analyzed within the framework of a medium-scaled simulation model. The first set of optimization experiments aims to assess optimal fiscal policies for debt stabilization for the historical period 1978–2000 while trying to maintain reasonable growth rates of approximately 2 percent of real GDP. Optimal values of the instruments and the targets are compared to empirical data for Austria. A second set of simulations calculates optimal paths for the fiscal instruments for the period 2001-2010, particularly with respect to the criteria of the Stability and Growth Pact, which is mandatory for member states of the Euro zone.     

农村政策性金融与财政支农关系

政策性金融的产生及其作用的发挥,实际上就是财政职能不断强化的一个产物,改革开放中后期以来,我国农村政策性金融体系的功能趋于弱化,其原因在于:财政实力被过多地削弱,公共产品资源配置不够合理,过分倚重商业性金融的支农效应而弱化了财政对农村政策性金融的支持。为此,应当健全财政对农村政策性金融持续投入机制与补偿机制,协调好财政政策与货币政策的关系,财政还应承担起对政策性金融业务监督管理的责任。     

积极运用财政政策,促进经济健康发展

如何看待财政政策的作用, 怎样正确处理发债与经济增长之间的关系, 本文在专家调整的基础上进行了综述性分析, 提出在目前应积极运用财政政策, 加强财政政策, 加强财政、贷币政策的协调, 促进经济增长。     

Growth versus Conservation: A Veblenian Perspective

This article is concerned with the role of institutions in organizing the economy and argues with some neoclassical and Marxist positions. The neoclassical approach usually ignores the role of institutions, while its “public choice-property rights” extensions overemphasize the market solution to market failure problems. The Marxist approach is useful in relating institutions to the conflicts of interest, but tends to be overoptimistic about possibilities of social control of economic activities.     

The employment effect of changes in the composition of fiscal consolidations

This paper assesses the magnitude and nature of fiscal consolidation policies and their impact on employment. In particular, in an attempt to address fiscal imbalances in the near term, countries have been faced with the delicate challenge of doing so without damaging recovery prospects and thus, counter to their original aim, worsening further public finances. In this regard, the paper reviews recent austerity measures adopted by governments and discusses how prolonging fiscal consolidation measures in their current form could be counterproductive for guaranteeing debt sustainability. Moreover, the article shows how poorly designed fiscal cuts – directly or indirectly affecting labour – seem to have been dampening job prospects. The paper sheds light on how fiscal and employment goals can be achieved together. More specifically, it finds that a fiscally-neutral change in the expenditure and revenue composition of fiscal consolidation can boost job creation. In this sense, the paper shows that it is imperative to find the right policy mix and recommends countries to be mindful of the nature and pace of consolidation.     

地方财政政策逆周期调节：财政分权还是债务增发*

财政政策工具实际操作偏离最初设计将会降低政策工具的调控效果,导致宏观经济波动加剧。针对地方政府财政政策的逆周期性调控目标,本文关注财政分权深化和政府债务增发的逆周期性效应。研究发现：地方政府财政政策总体呈现顺周期特征。财政分权程度的提高放大了地方财政政策的顺周期性。地方政府债务增发使地方财政政策呈现逆周期特征。地方政府财政政策及其收入面、支出面均呈现顺周期性,由“顺”转“逆”的债务平衡点分别为0137,0113,0209。当前绝大部分地区的债务规模都在债务平衡点之下。驱动地方政府债务逆周期调控的内在因素是官员晋升激励。晋升激励的程度越高,地方债务逆周期调控的力度就越大。但外部市场融资环境的波动削弱了地方政府债务逆周期调控的力度。本文的政策主张是,不宜过度财政分权,应该扩大地方债发行规模,促使地方财政政策逆周期调节。     

重新认识菲利普斯曲线的真正价值

菲利普斯曲线的真正价值不在于失业率与通胀率之间的置换关系而在于对经济运行态势的勾勒。短期菲利普斯曲线可分为六种类型，长期菲利普斯曲线则极不规则，就实现宏观调控而言，研究短期菲利普斯曲线更有意义。