Time and frequency connectedness of uncertainties in cryptocurrency,stock, currency,energy, and precious metals markets

This paper examines the connectedness of uncertainty in cryptocurrency, stock, currency, and commodity markets. We use the novel news-based cryptocurrency uncertainty indices of Lucey et al. (2021) and global implied volatility indices as uncertainty proxies for stock, currency, energy, and precious metals markets. We analyze weekly data between January 2014 and May 2021, employing the time and frequency connectedness measures of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and Baruník and Křehlík (2018). Our results show a low degree of uncertainty connectedness between cryptocurrency and other markets. The results imply long-term diversification opportunities and highlight the distinct dynamics of the cryptocurrency markets.     

Determinants of connectedness in financial institutions: Evidence from Taiwan

This study estimates the interconnectedness among financial holding companies (FHCs) in Taiwan to identify its determinants. Using the Diebold and Yilmaz's (2012) measure, we find that larger directional connectedness stems from state-owned FHCs, indicating their dominant role in transmitting systemic risk. In addition, we find that bank performance and monetary policy both play an important role in financial connectedness. Finally, we show that syndicated loans may affect interconnectedness because the arranger bank transmits systemic risk to other participating banks.     

Empathy,Connectedness and Organisation

In this paper, we conceptually explore the role of empathy as a connectedness organising mechanism. We expand ideas underlying positive organisational scholarship and examine leading-edge studies from neuroscience and quantum physics that give support to our claims. The perspective we propose has profound implications regarding how we organise and how we manage. First, we argue that empathy enhances connectedness through the unconscious sharing of neuro-pathways that dissolves the barriers between self and other. This sharing encourages the integration of affective and cognitive consciousness which facilitates the ability to find common ground for solution building. Second, empathy enhances connectedness through altruistic action. In giving to others, feelings of joy and harmony are activated. This in turn allows personal freedom to be enriched and transcendence from the rational ego-self is reduced to develop a more expansive, integrated and enlightened state underlying connectedness. Finally, empathy enhances connectedness which results in sharing the quantum field of coherence where there is little separation between self and other. This means living beyond self-interest in a coherent world based upon interdependent wholeness rather than atomization and separation. Empathy allows us to find that state of coherent connectedness.     

The Connectedness Decision Paradigm: Group Decision, Negotiation and Leadership in World Problems

We discuss connectedness, a dynamic unity relation experience. The Connectedness Decision Paradigm (CDP) is a formal, general systems-spirituality framework, technology-supported, for group decision and negotiation (GDN) and leadership in making “right” decisions. A right problem/solution is validated by a spiritual rationality validation test involving connectedness. A participant (agent) may experience connectedness with purposes (intended results). Purposes for which there is reciprocated (shared) purpose connectedness across agents constitute common ground for these agents. A basic idea is to identify and expand such common ground. Even in difficult problem solving, as with polarization, where there seems to be little or no common ground, a priori there is always the ultimate purpose common ground of connectedness with One (spirituality) from which other common ground as connectedness with the “other” can arise. Common ground can lead to additional common ground and to an agreed problem solution—itself constituting common ground—that can be tested for rightness. Our focus here is on human agents considered as spiritual purposeful complex adaptive systems in multiagent environments. The ideas are applicable to other agents with lesser or greater capabilities than humans according to their capabilities. Expanding earlier work, this commentary on CDP is also based on GDN 2012, 2013 meeting remarks by the author, as well as on a lecture, “Hope on the Edge of Chaos: The New Connectedness Paradigm in World Affairs”, Hamilton Hall, Salem, Massachusetts, February 2012. In presenting CDP, this commentary is also a call for problem solving frameworks for GDN and leadership, and solutions to world problems.     

Financial connectedness of BRICS and global sovereign bond markets

The paper examines the financial connectedness via return and volatility spillovers between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) and three global bond market indices represented by the United States of America (USA), European Monetary Union (EMU) and Japan for the period 01 January 1997 to 27 July 2016 (weekly data). We find that Russia followed by South Africa is the net transmitter of shocks within BRICS, implying that the risk arising from these markets may have an adverse impact on others in BRICS. However, China and India exhibit weak connectedness, suggesting that these markets may be useful for hedging and diversification opportunities in BRICS. The networks of pairwise spillover results further confirm this. Among global indices, China appears as highly interconnected with the USA. USA is the strongest transmitter of shocks to BRICS bond indices. The panel data results further confirm the significant determinants of net directional spillover. Thus, we can conclude that BRICS is a heterogeneous asset class even in the case of the bond market. India and China are the markets to look for better risk management strategies.     

Dependence dynamics of stock markets during COVID-19

Stock markets have exhibited increased returns connectedness during the COVID-19 period. We examine the returns dependence among 42 stock markets classified under various emerging and developed groupings. We apply several dependence measures to examine the returns connectedness among the markets. Our results show that stock markets from the G-7 and Emerging Frontier and Asian (EFA) region exhibit high connectedness with other international markets, while Middle East and North African (MENA) and Latin American (LA) stock markets offer high diversification opportunities through low returns connectedness. The returns coherence of Central and East European (CEE) and G-7 markets increase significantly during the COVID-19 period which supports the hypothesis of contagion. However, during the pandemic MENA stock markets (excluding Greece) and most EFA markets (excluding China, Singapore and Korea) remain less cointegrated with other international equity markets. Our results have implications for individual and institutional investors, fund managers and other financial market stakeholders.     

Spillovers and connectedness among BRICS stock markets,cryptocurrencies, and uncertainty: Evidence from the quantile vector autoregression network

In this study we advance the understanding of the spillovers and connectedness network among conventional and Islamic BRICS stock markets, cryptos (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin) and various global uncertainties, using a quantile vector autoregression method and daily data covering the period October 8, 2016, to May 28, 2021. Further, the study uses a network and sensitivity analyses to assess the nexus, examines risk causes, and the transfer paths in these markets under bearish, normal, and bullish markets. The evidence offers major findings. First, the overall static and dynamic connectedness is very high and more intense at extreme events. Second, the network connectedness structure shows that the markets have played both roles: net transmitters and receivers of shocks under several market states. Finally, the sensitivity to quantiles analysis shows switching behavior of net transfer spillovers over the quantiles. This could be beneficial to investors aiming at optimizing hedging strategies. Policymakers should consider carefully the overall network connectedness in the market system and formulate appropriate policies to conceive stock market price sensitivity.     

Multinational operational flexibility,within-network redundancy,and downside risks and divestment rates of international investments

This study takes the multinational operational flexibility perspective anchored in real options theory to examine how intra-firm connectedness and switchability affect the performance and longevity of international investments. We postulate that more extensive intra-firm trade connectedness, along with multinationality, reduces downside risks and divestment rates. Through an empirical examination of a large sample of Korean multinational corporations, we find that more extensive trade ties within the same MNC network are negatively associated with downside risks. We also find that decreased downside risks decrease divestment rates. Furthermore, we observe that these impacts of intra-firm trade ties are more salient when more in-network manufacturing subsidiaries produce the same product type and operate in negatively correlated countries in terms of labor costs. These findings indicate how the flexible configurations of international investments influence their performance and longevity.     

The predictive failure of the Baba, Hendry and Starr model of M1

restored a stable specification for M1 demand using an error-correction model which allowed for learning about new assets and incorporated a volatility term in long-term interest rates. Our study replicated their in-sample results, but found that their model completely breaks down over longer sample periods. We argue that this predictive failure could have been anticipated by sensitivity analysis. Their specification appears to have underestimated the interest rate elasticity of money demand because of the learning-adjustment mechanism. Our results also call into question their basic use of volatility in narrow money demand models.     

Better,faster, cheaper: Pick any three

A strategy called software product line engineering, or SPLE, is taking hold in industries in which software is an integral part of product offerings. Where it has found a foothold, SPLE has brought about remarkable results such as unprecedented product variation, substantial production cost savings, slashing of time to market, and massive productivity gains. SPLE is the software version of an old manufacturing concept: building a suite of products from common parts assembled under a common design in a common production facility. The special properties of software make SPLE a particularly high-payoff proposition. SPLE exploits the commonalities among products to achieve economies of scale, by creating core assets—assets that will be applied to multiple products in the product line. SPLE accommodates the differences among products by explicitly identifying and planning for those variations in product behavior and qualities. This management of variation allows the organization to achieve economies of scope and provides the capability of mass customization where every market is treated as a niche. Management ensures that core asset developers create effective core assets and product builders efficiently build products by using them. This requires oversight, coordination, and melding of purpose of groups that have slightly different inherent goals.     

Network structure,equilibrium and dynamics in a monopolistically competitive economy

Although network theory has been busy to emphasize the role of connection structures in shaping aggregate level phenomena of complex systems, there are only few attempts in economic modeling which try to build this dimension into the analysis. Macroeconomic models typically build on complete connectedness among economic actors (frictionless flow of information, perfect information on prices), thus these models typically oversee the possible effects of complex, incomplete network structures among economic agents on emergent macroeconomic phenomena. In this paper we try to fill this gap by incorporating possibly incomplete relationship structures between economic actors in a standard model of monopolistic competition and then analyze the effect of different network structures on the equilibrium and dynamic properties of the model. Analytical and simulation results of the model show that incomplete connectedness give rise to deadweight loss, shrinking output below the level observed in standard models with complete networks. Also, the dynamics of link formation has an effect on the steady state of the economy as well as on its response to shocks.     

Semistatic and sparse variance‐optimal hedging

We consider the problem of hedging a contingent claim with a “semistatic” strategy composed of a dynamic position in one asset and static (buy‐and‐hold) positions in other assets. We give general representations of the optimal strategy and the hedging error under the criterion of variance optimality and provide tractable formulas using Fourier integration in case of the Heston model. We also consider the problem of optimally selecting a sparse semistatic hedging strategy, i.e., a strategy that only uses a small subset of available hedging assets and discuss parallels to the variable‐selection problem in linear regression. The methods developed are illustrated in an extended numerical example where we compute a sparse semistatic hedge for a variance swap using European options as static hedging assets.     

Competitive Strategy,Environmental Characteristics and Performance in African Emerging Economies: Lessons from Firms in Ghana

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the impact of the implementation of competitive strategy on organizational performance in response to economic liberalization policies using survey data from organizations in Ghana. We also examine how the perceived intensity of industry competition and industry sector moderate the relationship between competitive strategy and organizational performance. The results show that the implementation of the competitive strategies of low-cost, differentiation, and integrated low-cost and differentiation were all positively related to performance (return on assets and return on sales). We also find that both industry competition and industry sector moderate the relationship between differentiation strategy and return on assets. Moreover, industry competition moderates the relationships between both low-cost and differentiation strategies and return on sales. The results indicate that implementing a clearly defined competitive strategy is beneficial to organizations experiencing significant changes in the environment due to economic liberalization. The findings also suggest that while low-cost strategy is more beneficial to organizations in a highly competitive industry, differentiation strategy is more beneficial to firms in lowly competitive industry. At the same time, organizations in the manufacturing sector benefit more than those in the service sector when they implement the differentiation strategy. Managerial implications are presented.     

Global commodity and equity markets spillovers to Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper examines the connectedness among 12 African equity markets and the global commodity, developed equity markets, paying particular attention to their evolution during the COVID-19 pandemic's peak period. We find that whilst African equity markets connect weakly to these markets, the levels of connectedness among these markets improved significantly during the pandemic. In addition, the energy market dominates the transmission of shocks in the system with commodity markets. Regarding the system with equity markets, the French and South African equity markets transmit the highest spillover in the full sample and during the pandemic's peak period, respectively.     

The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004

We construct estimates of external assets and liabilities for 145 countries for 1970-2004. We describe our estimation methods and key features of the data at the country and global level. We focus on trends in net and gross external positions, and the composition of international portfolios. We document the increasing importance of equity financing and the improvement in the external position for emerging markets, and the differing pace of financial integration between advanced and developing economies. We also show the existence of a global discrepancy between estimated foreign assets and liabilities, and identify the asset categories accounting for this discrepancy.     

Corporate fraud,risk avoidance,and housing investment in China

This study investigates the impact of corporate fraud on household investment choices. We conjecture that by undermining trust in the financial and insurance market, corporate fraud behaviour would decrease households' investment in risky financial assets and increase investment in non-financial assets. Combining data on households' investment behaviour with information on fraudulent activities of listed companies in China, we find that households with more lifetime experience of corporate fraud invest less in stocks and are less likely to purchase private insurance. By contrast, fraud experience increases households' intention to invest in residential real estate. In addition, the impact of corporate fraud is stronger among individuals who pay more attention to economic information, among individuals who have more social interaction, and among individuals in better regulated regions. Furthermore, we find that different types of fraud have differentiated effects on household investment decisions. Our findings indicate that corporate misconduct could generate profound negative externalities on the whole financial system.     

Connectedness Problem Solving and Negotiation

Difficult polarizing problems/conflicts are pervasive in the United States and the world. Welcome to spiritual rationality/connectedness problem solving and negotiation involving spirituality and rationality, and emphasizing connectedness in problem solving. In particular, we develop CPSN-ESD—Connectedness Problem Solving and Negotiation (CPSN) through Evolutionary Systems Design (ESD)—discussing spiritual rationality/connectedness and highlighting connectedness with One and with each other as values, among others, in problem solving. In CPSN-ESD, CPSN is effected through ESD, a game-theory based, general formal systems- spirituality modeling/design framework for individual and multiagent (group) problem solving and negotiation implemented by computer technology. Problem solving is represented by an evolving problem system of purposes and their relations from the lowest-level action to the highest purpose, ultimate common ground—spirituality, connectedness with One (or a surrogate, as discussed). For an agent, an evolved problem system satisfying spiritual rationality identifies right action (a solution) producing spirituality, connectedness with One (or a surrogate). A negotiation agreement requires multiagent agreement on the action to be taken. Agents may be natural or artificial. The paper focuses mostly on human agents with ideas being applicable to other natural and artificial (computer) agents with lesser (or greater) capabilities than humans according to their built-in capabilities. Present-to-future CSPN-ESD work includes furthering support of human agents; designing spiritual agents; designing multiagent systems for connectedness capitalism; developing connectedness democracy; further research and applications on intercultural and international negotiation; work on the world connected.     

Cross-border banking,credit access,and the financial crisis

We study the sensitivity of credit supply to bank financial conditions in 16 emerging European countries before and during the financial crisis. We use survey data on 10,701 applicant and non-applicant firms that enable us to disentangle effects driven by positive and negative shocks to the banking system from demand shocks that may vary across lenders. We find strong evidence that firms' access to credit was affected by changes in the financial conditions of their banks. During the crisis firms were more credit constrained if they were dealing with banks that experienced a decline in equity and Tier 1 capital, as well as losses on financial assets. We also find that access to credit reflects the balance sheet conditions of foreign parent banks. The effect of positive and negative shocks to a bank is greater for riskier firms and firms with fewer tangible assets.     

A Study on Firms with Negative Book Value of Equity

This paper studies the puzzling negative book equity phenomenon among US public firms. Our evidence suggests that negative book equity firms exhibit heterogeneous characteristics. We show that a great portion of these firms, while operating at excessive capital structure with leverage ratio over 100%, are financially and operationally healthy. These healthy negative book equity firms increase their debt primarily motived by a need for funds to fulfill investment demand. We also find that the off‐balance sheet intangible assets and quality of intangible assets play an important role in determining the true debt capacity of these firms.     

抵押担保、置信威胁与融资选择

我国由于法律环境不完善、信用情况较差等原因形成了大量的银行不良资产.为降低不良资产比率,目前抵押担保在我国商业银行贷款中被普遍地使用.本文构建了拥有不同抵押担保品和自有资本的微观融资主体的借贷模型,通过分析借款者和贷款者的最优选择,推导得出了不同类型企业的最优融资模式,并指出银行为了切实降低不良贷款比率,不能只把抵押担保作为一种贷款前的风险甄别机制,作为借款人违约后弥补贷款损失的补救手段,更重要的是要在监管过程中利用抵押担保对借款人实行置信的威胁,以迫使其努力经营,从而实现有效的监管.文章最后结合模型对我国融资现状作了一些分析并相应提出了几点政策建议.