Rational choice models of crimes by youth

This article presents research findings from three analyses of criminal activity among youth. The data set used in all three is the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Americans, a data set that is particularly appropriate for this type of analysis. The work examined the relationship between criminal behavior and family and moral influences; the impact of legitimate labor market activity on participation in crime; and the effect of school enrollment on criminal activity. The findings confirm the hypothesis that black and white differences in criminal participation partially reflect differences in economic opportunity.     

A behavioral model of work-trip mode choice in Shanghai

This paper analyzes travelers' choice behavior by using combined revealed preference/stated preference (RP/SP) survey data on work-trip mode choice in Shanghai, taking into consideration different scales across the two data sources. Several versions of a multinomial choice model are specified and estimated. The estimation results suggest that the utility function with money cost divided by income by equivalence scale be chosen as the preferred model. Based on the preferred model, values of time and sample aggregate elasticities of choice probabilities are calculated. The results show that values of “in-vehicle time” and “out-of-vehicle time” are 64 and 82% of the sample mean wage, and that in terms of elasticities, “in-vehicle time”, “out-of-vehicle time” and “money cost” are the most important attributes for bus, subway and taxi passengers, respectively. The conditional elasticities given low, middle and high income levels indicate that bicycles seem to be an inferior good for all income levels. Bus and subway transport are inferior goods for people at middle and high income levels but normal goods for those at a low income level. Taxis are a normal good only for low income levels; for middle and high income levels, they are a luxury good. The results obtained may be used for transportation policymaking in Shanghai.     

企业战略：基于集体约束下的模糊选择

战略和企业战略是一种思想，是指导实践的动力源泉，而企业战略管理是实现这一思想的过程、文章从战略的起源、发展和现代战略的动态性、渐进性、综合性的特点分析不同战略理论的作用、基于环境学派和资源学派的特点，从战略结果的角度分析，企业战略管理的结果往往是集体约束下的模糊选择。     

A stability property in social choice theory

A social choice function g is stable if whenever an alternative x is selected at profile u and then profile is constructed from u by only switching x with yfor one individual i who has y just below x at u, then rule g selects either x or y at and not some third alternative. Stability is strictly weaker than strategy‐proofness but strong enough to establish two kinds of impossibility theorems.     

我国宏观税收负担水平的选择和优化

政府税收收入规模过小难以保证其履行职能的资金需要,而政府税收收入规模过大又会抑制经济的发展,因此科学理性地确定一国的宏观税收负担水平显得尤为重要。本文分析了宏观税收负担水平的影响因素,借鉴国际经验,结合我国国情,就如何界定我国宏观税收负担水平及其优化途径提供了相关的建议。     

理性选择、比较方法与国际政治经济学

国际政治经济学从国际关系中分离之后,汲取了经济学和比较政治学等诸多学科的研究方法,研究方法成为国际政治经济学区别于国际关系其他领域的重要特征,也是区分国际政治经济学国际组织学派和英国学派的重要标准。在国际政治经济学发展过程中常用的两种研究方法是理性选择和比较方法,后者通常可以划分为大样本统计和小样本案例分析。是否采用源自经济学的理性选择和使用大样本统计还是小样本案例分析成为目前国际政治经济学方法论争议的核心问题。国际政治经济学研究应当充分重视研究方法的掌握,作为西方国际政治经济学理论的消费者,要实现同西方学者的对话,我们必须掌握相应的研究方法;研究方法服务于议题设定,任何方法都有其优势和局限性,应当根据自己议题需要谨慎地使用某种或者多种研究方法;应当关注经济学和比较政治学发展的新动向和新发展,这两个学科对国际政治经济学及其研究方法的影响还将继续。     

生源不足条件下高职院校的战略选择和理性对策

受人口出生率变化和高考选择多样化的影响，高职院校的招生碰到了很大的困难，有些困难是客观的，有些困难则是由高职院校自己沟通不善造成的。明确自身的战略定位，取得政府在政策和资金等方面的支持，制订正确的招生宣传策略，做好招生宣传，就一定能克服当前生源减少带来的困难。     

我国上市公司治理与会计政策选择

会计政策选择受到公司治理的强烈影响,其存在有一定的客观必然性。文章论述了两种主要公司模式下会计政策选择的取向,分析了我国上市公司治理的现状及由此而产生的会计政策选择方面的问题。为提高会计政策选择的效率性,我国上市公司应完善公司治理结构,文章对此提出了建议。     

农民参加新农保的影响因素实证分析——基于重庆市25个区县的调查数据(英文)

Based on survey data from 334 farmers in 25 counties of Chongqing,this thesis analyzes empirically the influencing factors of farmers’participation in New Farmers’Insurance.The result of Probit regression demonstrates that(1)the degree of farmers’understanding of the New Farmers’Insurance is the most significant factor of their participation;(2)area of family plowland and distance to the city exert significant impact:the participation rate is higher when the area of plowland is larger;it is also higher when the village is farther from the city;(3)neighbors’insurance behaviors have important effects on farmers’decisions;(4)whether or not the farmer has joined other insurances has significant effects on his/her participation in New Farmers’Insurance.     

我国资本帐户开放的成本收益分析及策略选择

资本帐户开放是我国金融业发展的客观要求,随着我国社会政治、经济不断发展和对外开放深化,我国资本帐户开放的风险正不断降低,开放条件正逐步变得成熟。本文在分析资本帐户开放的成本和收益基础上,对如何降低资本帐户与金融开放的成本,提出了若干对策建议。     

论金融控股公司演进路径:社会抉择与制度设计

金融控股公司作为现代金融业最重要的经营组织形式,在金融危机中表现出巨大抗风险能力。后金融危机时代,金融业并没有出现上世纪大萧条的分业经营,许多业务单一的金融机构开始了新一轮大规模的兼并与重组,一大批新金融航母开始出现。实际上,金融业经营模式作为一种金融制度安排,它与宏观经济、技术进步等经济环境密切相关,是在一定经济条件下社会抉择的结果。本文通过金融控股公司演进路径的梳理,重新认识到政府干预与自由市场之间选择的重要性,可以对我国金融业改革提供一个新的思路。     

自由选择下属性同异操控对选择冲突影响研究

选择集的属性同异结构会影响消费者的感知,在选择集内加入属性趋同产品,会通过属性趋同效应和知觉聚焦效应影响消费者的选择。文章应用实验方法通过logistic回归分析,发现属性趋同产品加入选择集对消费者选择延迟的影响受到感知风险程度的调节。在高风险感知和低风险感知的情形下,属性趋同产品的加入对消费者延迟选择与否没有显著影响,而在中等感知风险的情形下,属性趋同产品的加入对消费者的延迟选择会产生显著影响。     

国际制度对国内政治的影响机制——来自理性选择制度主义的解释

近些年来,理性选择制度主义者为国际制度的国内影响发展了几种重要的因果机制。理性选择制度主义主要探讨了在行为体偏好给定的条件下,国际制度如何改变了国内行为体在信息、权力和利益分布上的既有均衡状态,从而影响了国内政治的结果。如果国内制度具有集权的特点,国际制度就可以作为信号和承诺装置;如果国内制度具有分权的特点,国际制度就可以用来对权力资源进行再分配。但这两种效应往往发生在国际制度对国家行为的约束力较强时。当国际制度对国家行为的约束力较弱时,国际制度可以作为社会集团的政治动员工具。     

Parental and sibling influence on study field choice: Gender-stereotypical or field preference transmission

Using respondents’ perceptions about parental and siblings’ influences on their educational decisions in the data of Taiwan Panel Survey of Family Dynamics, we found that sons’ study choices are more likely than those of daughters to be influenced by parents. In addition, females are likely to be influenced by their sisters to choose a non-science-related study field. Moreover, when fathers influence their sons’ educational decisions, sons tend to choose science-related study fields. Conversely, if mothers play a role in their sons’ educational decisions, sons are more likely to choose a non-science-related study field. From the cross-sex influences on children’s study field choice, that is, fathers’ influence on daughters and mothers’ influence on sons, we find that the effects of parents’ field preferences are stronger than the effects of parental gender stereotype. The gender of the influential family member is the key to determining whether the influenced member chooses a science or non-science study field. Furthermore, although we cannot prove a significant relationship between the degree of masculinity constructed from parents’ occupations and children’s study field choice, we show that parents play a vital role in field choice. In addition, we employ the bounding approach to show that our main findings remain robust to potential omitted-variable bias.     

企业创新动力论

本文在比较我国与发达国家农业发展条件优劣势的基础上 ,对我国加入WTO后农业发展所面临的市场环境和WTO的相关条款进行了分析 ,最后提出了既符合WTO规则又适合我国国情的支持农业发展的政策措施。     

关于推进安徽城市化进程的战略思考

运用税收政策促进科技进步和经济发展 ,已成为我国采用的一项重要策略和手段。本文从效率和公平两个方面 ,全面分析我国现行科技税收政策产生的正负效应 ,在此基础上 ,着眼于实现“政策优惠———科技发展———经济增长———税收增加”的良性循环 ,结合我国科技发展的实际需     

关于老年旅游决策过程的分析——基于理性选择理论的视角

老龄化社会的来临,为老年旅游市场的发展带来了空前的机遇。然而,老年人属于一个特殊群体,他们对旅游地、旅游方式、旅游成本及服务等都有较高的要求,同时,在进行旅游决策时,也会受到更多因素的影响和限制。从社会学的理性选择理论来看,老年人的旅游决策过程也是一种理性选择的过程。