Venture capital in transition: A Monte-Carlo simulation of changes in investment patterns

This article examines the nature of the investment process which has historically generated high returns for venture capital funds, and the impact on fund returns of perceived changes in management practice and the structure of the industry. The article outlines some policy implications for fund managers, investors, and the general management of corporations.The authors have investigated the investment process and the changes in the nature of the process through the use of a Monte-Carlo simulation model. Information gathered from interviews with fund managers and the available published data on venture fund performance (including proprietary surveys) was used to develop and calibrate the model. The model replicates the relatively high average fund returns and distribution of returns for funds through the early 1980s. The model simulates a multistaged investment process which draws on a pool of investment opportunities which have a log normal distribution of returns and a low (zero) average return. The model readily permits the exploration of the impact of management and industry practices on fund returns.The conditions identified by the authors, which led to high rates of return on the part of venture capital funds, include:

• 1.1) multistaged investment or commitment of funds on an incremental basis with evaluation of venture performance before commitment of additional fund;
• 2.2) objective evaluation of venture performance with the clear distinguishing of winners from losers;
• 3.3) parlaying funds or having the confidence to commit further funds to ventures identified as winners;
• 4.4) persistence of returns from one round to the next, which implies that valuable information is gained from previous rounds of investment in the same venture;
• 5.5) long-term holding of investment portfolios for a period sufficient for geometric averaging of compound returns to cause the winners to “take over” or raise portfolio returns.

Taken together, these conditions have permitted venture capital funds to historically realize strong average returns with a few of them realizing extraordinary returns.The article also explores the consequences of what some believe is happening in the industry: a trend toward holding investments for shorter periods, increased competition both for investments and later in the product-market arena, and a growing lack of loyalty between investors and investees. All of these conditions and their indirect consequences were shown by the model to negatively impact the limited partners in the venture capital funds while general partners, given the structure of fees and the distribution of investment returns, generally realized a reasonable to extraordinary return. The article outlines a number of management and investment policy implications for investors and fund managers.     

The performance of socially responsible equity mutual funds: Evidence from Sweden

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of socially responsible (SR) funds in Sweden by assessing fund managers' abilities and performances across different market states. These issues are analyzed at the aggregate and individual fund levels. The paper also presents several new statistical tests that allow more precise inferences about differences in performance and the variability in fund returns arising from different benchmarks. In general, SR and conventional funds perform similarly to the market. At the aggregate level, SR funds investing in Sweden and Europe perform similarly to conventional funds, while those investing globally tend to underperform. This underperformance seems to be linked with poor selectivity abilities of global SR fund managers. For individual funds, the performance of both types of funds is more similar. Most funds perform similarly in crisis periods compared to non‐crisis periods. Overall, our results are consistent with a mature market for SR investing and support the view that the similar performance of SR and conventional funds is associated with the mainstreaming of SR investment in Sweden. These findings encourage SR investing both by socially conscious investors, who wish to align their social values with their investment decisions, as well as by conventional investors, who will not be penalized by investing in these funds. We also call attention to the difficulties investors face when trying to identify funds with high social standards, considering that there is scarce information on the extent to which each fund (SR or conventional) holds stocks that comply with ethical and social criteria.     

信贷资金融资服务效率与融资服务功能--基于中小企业的问卷调查

以6地区339家企业的问卷调查数据为基础对政策性银行贷款、商业性银行贷款、民间信贷三种资金为中小企业融资服务的效率进行实证考察,结果显示：三种资金对中小企业发展起正向促进作用,政策性资金和民间信贷资金融资服务效率高于商业性银行资金;三种资金投向具有规模企业偏好,与扶持小微企业发展的实践相矛盾;三种信贷资金行业服务效率差异明显,政策性资金对高新技术类企业融资服务效率高;民间信贷资金融资服务对象定位不明确,影响了其为中小企业服务的综合效率,亟需政策的规范和引导;在中小企业融资服务体系中三种资金具有联动效应。这些结论为合理界定三种信贷资金在中小企业融资服务体系中的服务功能和服务区间提供了依据。     

证券投资基金管理费用的实证分析

采用多元线性回归方法,以2000-2003年我国已发行基金为研究对象,对年度基金管理费用与基金业绩、规模之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:基金业绩、规模在2000年和2001年是影响基金管理费的主要因素;但自从2002年证监会全面停止提取业绩报酬之后,基金业绩对管理费用的影响不再显著,甚至出现了基金收益系数为负的怪现象。在此基础上,提出了对我国基金管理费用改革的几点建议。     

Can Mutual Fund Investors Distinguish Good from Bad Managers?

Mutual fund flows respond significantly to the return gap, which captures information about unobserved actions of mutual funds and predicts future performance. The sensitivity of fund flows to the return gap is: (i) strong and positive; (ii) increasing with investor sophistication; (iii) highly nonlinear; and (iv) decreasing with the informativeness of past fund returns. On average, the response of investors to the return gap enhances their performance. Our findings suggest there is a sophisticated mass of investors who can distinguish good from bad managers using information that may not be directly inferred from standard performance indicators.     

创业投资引导基金参股运作方式的国际比较

创业投资引导基金是许多国家和地区普遍采用的一种支持创业投资产业发展的政策。为了促进各自创业投资产业的发展,澳大利亚和芬兰均设立了创业投资引导基金。通过对澳大利亚和芬兰两国引导基金进行分析和比较,并在此基础上对我国创业投资引导基金的运作提出政策建议。     

我国开放式基金投资者流动性交易行为与基金业绩关系的实证研究

本文考察开放式基金由于投资者的申购和赎回而产生的流动性交易行为及其与基金业绩的关系,得出如下结论:(1)我国开放式基金投资者对单个基金认同程度很不一致,导致了对不同基金的申购和赎回差异悬殊;(2)投资者热衷于炒作小盘基金,使得其流动性交易远比大盘基金活跃,小盘基金更容易被少数大额持有人操纵而从中牟利;(3)我国开放式基金的业绩与其申购率成正向关系,但与赎回率没有明显的负向关系;(4)国外学者的早期研究发现,投资者倾向于购买业绩好的基金,但却不一定赎回业绩差的基金,这种业绩—流量的不对称性现象在我国基金市场同样存在。     

Spanish mutual fund fees and less sophisticated investors: examination and ethical implications

Some mutual funds not only apply the usual asset management and custodial fees, but also front loads and redemption fees as a kind of 'toll charge' payable on entering and/or leaving the fund. The aim of this work is to examine the implications of the different loads and fees applied to mutual fund investors in the Spanish market. The results show that there is a relationship between the various charges and fees. The fact that load fund companies charge higher management and custody fees proves the potential of the fund companies to impose higher fees on a segment of the clientele. The investors in load funds, which tend to be large in number of shareholders and belonging to banks and savings banks, are small investors who show a low cost sensitivity. A lower level of financial sophistication may be the reason for the apparent lower price awareness. The problem is that the investors in load funds are not financially compensated for the extra cost represented by the front-load and redemption fees. The only beneficiary seems to be the financial institution itself. On this view, the survival of load funds seems to depend on the lack of financial sophistication of their clientele, combined with market inefficiencies. It is worth asking about the ethics of a situation of market segmentation that allows managing institutions to benefit from the segment of the least sophisticated investors.     

VaR在我国开放式基金绩效评价中的应用研究

通过按照开放式基金的种类,选取一级市场上30只开放式基金为样本,采用基于VaR的RAROC方法,运用统计学软件Eviews中处理厚尾现象著称的GARCH模型进行统计分析,得出的结论是:成长型基金的绩效低于股票基金标准;平衡型基金和收入型基金的RAROC值相对较高,超过了股票基金标准;指数型基金的绩效超过股票标准(市场数据);在债券种类中,债券基金的绩效最高。     

National culture and socially responsible fund flows

We investigate the impact of national culture on socially responsible investment (SRI) fund flows. Drawing on prior literature suggesting that non-financial attributes and social preferences explain SRI decisions, we hypothesize that cultural traits may drive SRI fund flows. We use a dataset covering mutual funds from 45 countries over the period 1997 to 2019. Our results reveal that higher SRI flows are associated with low masculinity and uncertainty avoidance and, to a lesser extent, to high religiosity.On the contrary, power distance and individualism affect conventional fund flows but do not have any significant differential effect on ethical money flows.     

Pay-performance sensitivity and risk-taking behaviors: Evidence from closed-end funds

The pay-performance sensitivity (PPS) of managers of closed-end funds is explicitly specified in their contracts as the marginal rate of the funds' net asset value. Using a sample of US closed-end funds from 2006 to 2009, this paper investigates the relationship between the PPS and risk-taking behaviors of fund managers. After controlling for endogeneity, we find that fund return volatility and fund PPS positively determine each other. Furthermore, the positive relationship is more pronounced for closed-end funds engaging in alternative investments or in emerging markets.     

风险-收益悖论与绩差基金的业绩持续性

绩差基金的业绩具有持续性,这种现象为何产生,现有文献对此缺乏研究。文章从前景理论和金融市场的异常现象——风险-收益悖论出发,分析绩差基金业绩持续的原因,并提出一种解释这种原因的假说。文章利用我国开放式基金的数据,对这个假说进行了实证检验,检验结果证实：业绩排名落后时基金经理偏好冒险的决策行为,承担高风险却没有得到高收益补偿,是绩差基金业绩持续的重要原因。     

Private equity performance and capital flows: Evidence from China

For more than 1500 private equity funds in China over the period from 1992 to 2013, we construct fund level performance metrics with investment level return data and examine performance and capital flows. The median (mean) fund IRR, net of fees, is 9.0% (51.7%), based on a sample that controls for survivorship bias. Fund IRRs are neither related to fund own characteristics, such as fund size, nor to overall market conditions around the time when the fund is raised. Competition reduces fund performance: returns are lower when there are many competitors entering the industry at the same time. Although experienced partnerships are more likely to raise a follow-on fund and to raise more capital, fund performance is not related to general partnership (GP) investment experience. Further, there is no performance persistence across funds managed by the same GP. Lastly, there is some evidence of investor maturity when judged on GPs' historical performance. This evidence characterizes a burgeoning yet immature PE industry in China.     

Corporate culture,ethical stimulus,and managerial momentum: Theory and evidence

Research on organizational culture and ethical decision making has shown that ethical trainings predict and interact with other institutional variables to establish an ethical culture, while other studies suggest that the exposition of moral symbols leads to an increase of individuals' moral awareness. This study examines whether the relation between managerial momentum and fund performance is contingent upon ethical stimuli, team composition and interactions between them. It thus bestows insights to better inform institutional investors (including those working with mutual funds, pension funds, and insurance) about the nature and impact of ethical stimuli, when coupled with managers' momentum and team size, on the prediction of overall return of managed funds. I develop a new measure of managers' momentum termed “managerial momentum” and test our proposed theory and hypotheses using large samples of U.S. and Canadian mutual funds. The evidence reveals that there is sizeable positive effect of both corporate culture with its ethical dimensions and ethical stimulus on the fund performance. Furthermore, there is subtle evidence that both factors divulge additional information about the fund performance, but their effects are conditional on higher managerial momentum or team size, suggesting that managerial momentum alone is not sufficient. However, it is necessary to have the institutional ethical climate and/or managers' continuous ethical training to achieve viable and resilient investment opportunities tailored to the needs of different clienteles.     

Level and growth policy rules and actual Fed policy since 1979

The good macroeconomic performance of the US economy since the early 1980s has sparked interest in determining how the Fed has conducted the monetary policy. One widely shared view is that actual policy has broadly been consistent empirically with Taylor-type policy rules in which the funds rate responds to actual or expected inflation and the level of the output gap. In particular, as shown in Mehra (2001), a policy rule in which the funds rate responds to expected inflation, the bond rate, and the level of the output gap predicts actual policy well. It is shown here that the growth version of this rule in which the funds rate responds to the growth rate of the output gap instead of its level predicts actual policy almost as well. Hence, uncertainty that exists in measuring the current level of the output gap may not have mattered much in the conduct of policy, in contrast to the view focused on level policy rules.     

Managed commodity funds

The performance of managed commodity fund investments during the years l982 through 1996 is examined, both as stand-alone investments and as assets in diversified stock and bond portfolios. Nine stylized commodity fund investments are examined: randomly-selected, single-CTAs, pool, and fund portfolios; equally weighted market portfolios (EWMPs) of CTAs, pools, and funds; and value-weighted portfolios (VWMP) of CTAs, pools, and funds. Further, two subperiods are examined: 1982–1988 and 1989–1996. Based on an analysis using Sharpe ratios as the performance criterion, several types of managed commodity funds make both good stand-alone investments and good portfolio assets; an EWMP of CTAs and a VWMP of pools receive the highest ranking among the alternative commodity fund investments. It is also shown that commodity indexes are not a substitute for a managed commodity fund investment. A number of issues warrant further study: Can investors still earn consistently attractive risk-adjusted returns on managed commodity fund investments if they do not hold diversified portfolios of CTAs and pools? Also: How can such high speculative returns be earned in efficient commodity markets? And: Are CTA and pool returns high because commodity fund managers have superior trading skill? An important issue for future research is to determine whether in fact CTAs do possess such skill. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 377–411, 1999     

Managerial Sharing,Mutual Fund Connections,and Performance

In this study, we examine the effect of mutual fund connections, through managerial sharing, on performance and stock holding commonalities. Our analysis of return correlations and portfolio holdings indicates that more interconnected funds tend to buy and sell similar stocks, hence increasing the similarity of portfolio holdings and undermining the distinctiveness of their investment strategy. Our results also indicate that highly connected funds significantly underperform weakly connected funds by about 1.4% on a yearly risk‐adjusted basis. We show that fund family performance is unaffected by the intensity of fund connections, and that greater fund connections could significantly enhance family‐level profit margins.     

Management structure and the performance of funds of mutual funds

A rapidly growing mutual fund category is funds of funds (FOFs) which invest in other mutual funds instead of individual securities. This study reports on FOFs' characteristics and performance relative to traditional equity mutual funds and finds that FOFs compare favorably. FOFs with identified managers outperform their unidentified counterparts, and FOFs that invest in-family outperform both traditional equity funds and those FOFs investing out-of-family. Finally, replicating FOFs' holdings can be prohibitively expensive since they commonly hold funds with high minimum initial investments, closed funds and/or funds that are restricted to a particular investor type.     

Managerial Performance and Closed‐End Country Fund Premiums: A Lead or Lag Relationship?*

Herein, we examine whether changes in closed‐end country fund premiums lead and/or lag management performance. Using a sample of 46 country funds and a time period of 11 years, we find evidence of a significant negative relationship between past performance and current fund premiums, but no support for the hypothesis that past premiums are indicative of future performance. Furthermore, the above results are driven primarily by the emerging market funds. The difference between emerging market and developed market fund premiums' response to past performance, although less obvious, continues to hold in the crises period, but vanishes in the tranquil period.     

THE INCENTIVES OF HEDGE FUND FEES AND HIGH‐WATER MARKS

Hedge fund managers receive a large fraction of their funds' profits, paid when funds exceed their high‐water marks. We study the incentives of such performance fees. A manager with long‐horizon, constant investment opportunities and relative risk aversion, chooses a constant Merton portfolio. However, the effective risk aversion shrinks toward one in proportion to performance fees. Risk shifting implications are ambiguous and depend on the manager's own risk aversion. Managers with equal investment opportunities but different performance fees and risk aversions may coexist in a competitive equilibrium. The resulting leverage increases with performance fees—a prediction that we confirm empirically.