Africa’s single aviation market: The progress so far

To promote the development of air transport at the continental level, several policies were introduced, leading to the Yamoussoukro Decision (YD) in late 1999, which had the liberalisation of the intra-African aviation spaces as its main objective. Even though notable progress has been achieved towards more market-oriented aviation policies, at the pan-African level some markets are still restrictive and inconsistent with the YD, particularly with respect to the granting of 5th freedom rights. This paper aims to examine recent developments in the aviation sector in Africa, with a focus on the implementation of the YD. The obstacles to liberalisation are discussed and several measures for facilitating Africa’s move towards multilateral open skies are investigated. These include, among others, a greater collaboration and co-operation among African airlines, as well as between African airlines and foreign ones; redefinition of the role and responsibilities of different institutions which are instrumental in implementing the YD and some further issues such as ownership guidelines.     

European Union-Latin America/Caribbean air transport connectivity and competitiveness in different air policy contexts

This paper discusses the factors that affect network connectivity and competitiveness in the European Union and Latin America/Caribbean air transport market. The methodology is based on detailed real origin and destination data that allow the calculation of levels of market concentration and segmentation, airport connectivity and network efficiency. The bilateral markets analyzed compare unfavourably with other inter-continental markets, even though the economic growth of the countries involved would suggest otherwise. The market is dominated by a small number of airports and airlines, and connectivity in several Latin American and Caribbean states is over-dependent on tourism. Geographic factors can partially explain the situation identified, while the impact of policy, especially as regards the fragmented moves towards liberalisation, is also discussed.     

Air transport liberalisation and the development of third level airports in France

The liberalisation of air transport in the European Union encouraged a proliferation of new entry airlines exploiting the opportunities offered by minor airports. This was particularly apparent in France where “third level” airports experienced growth associated with start-up airlines using low-capacity aircraft. A summary of these trends is followed by a detailed examination of the Centre-East District, which demonstrates that the aspirations of both airlines and airports have been compromised by recent restructuring of the French airline industry. Far from providing greater competition, deregulation has increased the quasi-monopoly of Air France as market forces proved to be stronger than liberalisation. As a result, many third level airports face an uncertain future, especially in the light of the terrorist attack on the United States and its likely effect on airline economics.     

Airline choice and tourism growth in the Azores

This study examines the effect of airline choice on tourism growth in the Azores. The results reveal that tourism numbers increased sharply as more alternative choices emerged to visitors after the entrance of low-cost carriers due to airline liberalization. Moreover, different airline types attract different kinds of visitors, contributing to tourism diversification. In particular, low-cost airline tourists are younger than those who travel in full-service airlines or charter flights. They are also more likely to buy a last-minute ticket and to come from Iberian and French markets. Charter flights, however, are important choices for those traveling to the Azores from more distant markets such as Sweden and Denmark.     

A Cournot model for analysing the effects of an open skies agreement

In the last decades there has been a gradual liberalisation of international air transport markets through the implementation of open skies agreements which seek the deregulation of the air transport industry and consequently the functioning of the market in a freer way. The objective of this work is to study the effects of an open skies agreement in order to understand if the airlines and the consumers will benefit after the market deregulation. With this purpose, we develop a Cournot model to compare the initial situation (without agreement) and the situation after the implementation of the open skies agreement.Based on the model developed we conclude that after market liberalisation the prices on international market segments where competition increases should decline, thus benefiting consumers. Regarding the incumbent airlines in the market, an open skies agreement should jeopardize the airlines that fail to operate new routes, leading to decreased profits.     

A case study: The impact of low-cost carriers on inbound tourism of Saudi Arabia

This study investigates the impact of low-cost carriers (LCCs) on Saudi Arabia's tourism demand. It also provides an understanding of the relationship between air transport development and tourism development in the Gulf region. The Box–Jenkins SARIMA-X models were employed to model and forecast international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia, using monthly international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia from July 2010 to December 2015. The forecasting models were significantly accurate, with lower values of MAPE, MAP, and RMSE. The findings suggest that an increase in airline capacity, religious travel, and airline competition are associated with the increasing international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia. This also indicates that there is a positive relationship between air transport development and tourism development. Further aviation liberalisation in the Gulf region is discussed to give opportunities for the region's LCCs to increase their share of the increasing air travel demand, thereby enhancing tourism development.     

Is it in Germany's economic interest to allow Emirates to fly to Berlin? A framework for analysis

The economic approach (as compared to the traditional exchange of rights approach) to evaluating international aviation liberalisation proposals is gradually becoming more commonly used. With it, the various benefits and costs of liberalisation are assessed in a cost benefit framework. This approach is used to develop a framework to evaluate whether Germany will gain or lose from allowing airlines of the United Arab Emirates, and specifically Emirates Airlines, to fly to Berlin. This is something that the German government has so far refused. The economic approach is still evolving, and several new aspects of cost and benefits are being recognised and evaluated, for example the implications of foreign ownership of airlines, and benefits from inbound tourism. In this paper, a framework for determining whether Germany will gain from allowing these airlines access to Berlin is set out, and indicative conclusions are drawn.     

Martin Kunz Memorial Lecture. Tourism benefits and aviation policy

Many tourists now travel by air, and aviation liberalisation has greatly contributed to the boom in international tourism. The relevance of tourism economic benefits in aviation policy decisions is becoming established, though there has been little by of analysis of these, of how they can be measured. Here, the nature of tourism's economic benefits is discussed, and ways of measuring them are suggested. These rely on the use of computable general equilibrium models of economies. The measures of tourism benefits obtained from these are positive, though they smaller than more ad-hoc measures which are sometimes used, such as total tourism expenditure. The role of tourism benefits in aviation policy making is considered in several case studies. These indicate that while the tourism benefits to a country from aviation liberalisation are not likely to be as large as benefits to home country travellers or the costs to home country airlines, they are sufficiently large to tilt the balance of benefits and costs of liberalisation in many cases.     

Air transport and tourism—Perspectives and challenges for destinations,airlines and governments

Air transport and tourism are interlinked. Tourism is a driving factor for and, in some cases, a stimulator of change in air transport; most notably the development of new business models such as charter airlines. On the other hand, air transport opened new destinations and tourism forms such as long-haul excursions. Here these interlinks are analyzed in a system model. For the strategic development of destinations, a clear airline policy and air access strategy seems to be necessary. For airlines an assessment and understanding of the business models of destinations is essential. By shaping the external regulative environment of air traffic, government may influence air traffic as well as tourism.     

Air transport policy and its impacts on passenger traffic and tourist flows

This paper attempts to derive policy indices to quantify the restrictiveness of the aviation regimes in the Asia-Pacific region, and use the indices to establish the relationship between people movement and liberalisation in policy. Australia and Singapore have the most liberalised environment in this region. Evidence has been found that passenger traffic between city-pairs has been hampered by the restrictive air transport policies. Restrictions on the air transport sector also have a substantial negative impact on bilateral tourist flows. Further liberalisation in this sector could help build up a stronger tourism industry.     

A method for reducing information asymmetry in destination–airline relationships

We propose a measure of business risk in air travel demand at the route level that can reduce information asymmetry during route development negotiations between tourism destinations and airlines. Aviation-exposed risk (AER) conveys information about the level of uncertainty with regard to air travel demand from an airline’s perspective. Using AER, tourism destinations and air service development teams can evaluate their risks from the perspective of the airline and its network. From there, an assessment can be made as to the value of air services in certain circumstances, including whether a direct underwrite or risk share between airlines and destinations is viable and necessary. By applying a portfolio analysis to an airline’s network, we find evidence that AER does indeed mimic the actual capacity distribution of the network. This provides support for AER as a useful risk measure to be used in practice.     

Have the frills really left the European airline industry?

The emergence of low‐cost scheduled carriers in European aviation has attracted attention from business and leisure travellers as well as from established carriers. This paper examines low‐cost carriers in terms of their operating features and considers implications for European transport markets. Relevant aspects of the operating environment of European airlines are examined. An analysis of the USA situation in relation to low‐cost carriers is also provided. It is suggested that further research into the development of budget air travel in Europe needs to be undertaken. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What hurts the dominant airlines at hub airports?

This paper estimates a frequency equation to explain the determinants of network airline service levels at their hub airports. Drawing on European data for 2002–2013, we find that network airlines reduce frequencies when the share of low-cost airlines increases both on the route and at the hub airport. On the contrary, frequency choices of network airlines are not affected by competition from low-cost airlines operating in nearby secondary airports. We also find some evidence that mergers in Europe may result in a re-organization of the route structure in favor of the hubs of the larger airline.     

Modelling the volatility of international visitor arrivals to New Zealand

International visitor arrivals are considered to be a major source of foreign exchange, tourism-related employment and other tourism-related activities. This study used SARIMAX/(E)GARCH volatility models to forecast visitor arrivals by air transport to New Zealand from its eight key tourist source markets (Australia, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea, Germany, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US)) and control macroeconomic factors together with global and regional structural changes. The empirical models reveal that the macroeconomic factors contributed at various levels to different markets, and the models we provided made accurate and reliable forecasts for visitor arrivals by air transport from all studied markets. The results from the markets for Germany, Japan, South Korea and the UK showed that significantly negative tourism demand shocks increased the volatility of tourism arrivals, more than positive tourism demand shocks of equal magnitude. Accordingly, the findings of this study will allow policy-makers in the New Zealand tourism sector and other stakeholders (e.g. airline management) to better understand the impacts on the volatility of visitor arrivals to New Zealand.     

Evolution trends of the network structure of Spring Airlines in China: A temporal and spatial analysis

Both the sustainable development of China's economy and the deregulation of the China air transport market have acted as a spur for the halting development of low-cost carriers (LCCs) in China. To analyze the development trends of LCCs' network in China, this paper took Spring Airlines, the only LCC in China as an example. First, the winter flight plans of Spring Airlines from 2005 to 2013 were collected. Secondly, the development trends of air transport network of Spring Airlines were explored with methods of mathematical statistics and social network analysis. Additionally, the development trends were analyzed from the levels of navigable cities, air routes and air transport networks. The results show that although Spring Airlines actively launched air routes between tourist cities with non-class I airports, its network has been transformed from a star structure into a complex one with multi-hubs. The development process of the Spring Airlines network can be separated into three stages. In addition, the problems and evolution trends of its network are discussed further.     

The competitive landscape of air transport in Europe

Competition between airlines and airports increased significantly since the deregulation of the intra-European air transport market in 1997. The passenger has a wider choice in terms of routings and departure airports than twenty-five years ago and pays a lower price. In this paper we investigate in which parts of Europe airline and airport competition are most intense and how the competitive landscape has changed since the liberalisation of the intra-European market.Competition levels are modelled for all air transport markets available to consumers in each western-European municipality using a Multinomial Logit (MNL) model. This allows us to determine how competitive the air transport product available to consumers in each of those municipalities truly is and how competition levels have changed. As opposed to most other competition studies we take all viable direct and indirect flight alternatives into account, as well as competing alternatives from nearby (adjacent) airports. This makes it the most extensive analysis of competition in the European aviation industry performed to date.As expected the results show that airline competition, allowing for grouping of the airlines belonging to the same alliance together, has in general increased since the liberalisation of the intra-European market. This can mainly be ascribed to the rise of the low cost business model. The spatial analysis however shows an uneven outcome. Changes in airline competition are most pronounced in areas that were previously not well served, such as the more remote regions in the United Kingdom, Spain and Italy. In Germany airline competition is lagging behind due to the strong dominance of the STAR alliance. In large parts of Scandinavia, but also in parts of France and Spain, airline competition is considerably less. These areas are often served only by a handful of airports and/or airlines, limiting airline choice and therefore competition.     

Benchmarking the performance of Chinese airlines: An investigation of productivity,yield and cost competitiveness

In the past decade, the Chinese airline industry experienced extraordinary growth in size and profitability. However, no quantitative study has investigated the performance of Chinese airlines in terms of productivity and cost competitiveness. This study investigates the leading Chinese airlines' productivity, yield, cost competitiveness and input prices, and benchmarks them against major airlines around the world. It finds that Chinese airlines' productivity has improved significantly in the past decade but still lags behind that of industry leaders. Chinese carriers enjoyed high yields and low input prices in the domestic market, which led to high profitability in recent years. However, their cost advantage has been diminishing. To sustain long-term growth, Chinese airlines need to adopt the industry's best practices in a timely manner. Both the aviation markets and input markets in China should be further liberalized.     

Hello major airports,goodbye regional airports? Recent changes in European and US low-cost airline airport choice

Low-cost carriers (LCCs) are assumed to adopt a certain business model in which an important element is the concentration of services at secondary and regional airports. Yet, evidence suggests that increasingly LCCs also establish themselves in what can be considered the major airports. This raises the question of whether LCCs are changing their business model and adopting practices associated with the traditional, incumbent airlines, and if so what might cause such change. Based on categorization of airports and using OAG flight data the US and European markets are investigated. Focusing on several LCCs, with more attention given to Southwest and Ryanair, their profile of operation with respect to the type of airports used is analysed for a period of between 15 and 25 years and up to 2015. The results clearly indicate that LCCs are increasing their operations from major airports, while generally continuing their growth and expansion strategy. The main implication of which is the increase in direct competition between LCCs and traditional airlines while the impacts of this change on the smaller airports are not clear yet and need to be investigated further.     

Does liberalisation of air transport imply increasing competition? Lessons from the European case

The liberalisation of European airspace opened up unprecedented freedoms to Community airlines. This theoretically allows for increased competition. This article inquires into the quantification and the geography of the services offered in Europe that enjoy competition. Undoubtedly, competition appears to have increased but has certainly not become the general rule, notably because liberalisation has led to the creation of many new air routes operated by a single airline. Competition primarily benefits passengers in the large European cities, as well as those in peripheral regions that receive major tourist flows from the big cities in the northern parts of Western Europe.     

Major environmental impacts of European tourist transport

By merging European passenger transport demand data with international tourism data, a new data model was created, giving insight in the environmental impacts of tourism transport between the places of residence of European Union citizens and their tourist destinations. Analysis with this data model shows that, of the environmental impacts considered (climate change, air quality, noise and nature/landscape), climate change generates more than half of the externalities of tourist transport. Policies with the objective of reducing the external cost of European tourism should focus on measures reducing the impacts of tourist air transportation and intercontinental tourism.