研发效率、技术溢出与政府的创新补贴

 在一个三阶段博弈模型的基础上,本文研究了存在技术溢出情况下政府的创新激励政策与企业的研发策略。结果表明,无论是实行竞争型创新补贴政策还是合作型创新补贴政策,政府都应该优先补贴那些低成本、高效率的创新行为。贸易自由化提高了国家的创新补贴水平,但是技术溢出本身对创新补贴的影响却具有不确定性。文章的结果同时显示,贸易便利化的实施与高技术溢出提高了消费者剩余与国民福利水平。贸易壁垒虽然强化了企业对本国市场的垄断,但是,在考虑了政府的创新补贴政策后,具有创新激励的企业实际上更倾向于自由贸易结果,因此,相对于严格的专利保护制度,创新补贴政策可能更容易促进国民福利水平的提高。     

Economic diplomacy: The “one–China policy” effect on trade

Chinese foreign policy is mainly characterized by the Beijing consensus and the one-China principle in international relations. More precisely, the situation faced by Taiwan is a “core interest” in China's economic diplomacy strategy. We investigate whether the “one-China policy” (OCP) has had visible effects on bilateral trade flows. In other words, does the compliance of diplomatic commitments with China undermine Taiwanese trade and enhance China's trade position? Using a structural gravity model based on worldwide panel data for the period 1948–2012, we approximate the OCP through two dummy variables: the vote by countries of the UN resolution about China's recognition in 1971 and the existence of diplomatic ties with China. The first component of the OCP drastically increased on average in trade flows with China regardless of the vote of trading partners concerning this UN resolution as well as that for Taiwan. On average, results suggest that diplomatic relations with China improve bilateral trade flows for China, but a trade-deteriorating effect appears for Taiwan with certain ex-colonies. We also find that the effects of these economic diplomacy components confirm previous results reported for the period studied.     

The Marshall Plan and the Spanish postwar economy: a welfare loss analysis1

This article uses historical fact as a natural experiment to measure a country's welfare loss from shifting from an allowed to a restricted trade situation, based on international trade theory. A welfare loss of 8 per cent of GDP is found. The evolution of domestic import and export prices in Spain in 1940–58 fits international trade theory assumptions. The main years of autarky are not those commonly considered, but 1947–55, marked by the exclusion of Spain from the Marshall Plan and the Madrid Treaty between Franco's regime and the US. The upper‐bound welfare loss for 1947–55 is 26 per cent of GDP.     

What Factors Can Explain the Rising Spatial Disparity in Economic Activities in China?

This paper explores the impact of spatial externalities in shaping China's economic geography by establishing a theoretical framework that contains regional productivity, trade barriers and local amenities to capture spatial externalities between different regions over time. Combining provincial data on bilateral trade flows with observed information about economic geography during the period 1998–2013, we estimate the distribution and marginal contribution of each explanatory factor. Empirical results suggest that regional labor density and wage are positively related to exogenous productivity and amenities, and negatively related to trade barriers. Meanwhile, variation in the marginal contribution of exogenous productivity and amenities and trade barriers reflects the regional temporal–spatial features in China's recent marketization process. Therefore, the Chinese government should place more emphasis on absorbing advanced technologies and reducing inter‐regional market barriers to promote balanced regional development and improve the efficiency of China's spatial resource allocation.     

Anti-dumping Policies and International Portfolio Allocation: The View from the Global Funds

Anti-dumping policies, as one of the most important nontariff measures to protect a country's economic interests, can have an impact not only on a country's trade and social welfare, but also on capital flows. Anti-dumping measures can result in increased trade costs and alterations to exchange rate risk. This study investigates the impact of anti-dumping sanctions on the international portfolio allocations of global funds. Antidumping policies can decrease the proportion of a fund's investment portfolio allocated to recently-sanctioned countries. Closer trade ties between the sanctioned country and the country where a fund is domiciled exacerbate the divestiture, but stronger foreign direct investment links weaken the negative association. Some country and fund heterogeneities are also discussed. We find that more developed countries are less affected by the impact of anti-dumping measures on equity fund allocations; liberalization of the economy and stable government could also mitigate the negative impact of anti-dumping sanctions. High-risk funds, such as growth funds or funds that invest in leveraged buyouts, showed the greatest response to changes in anti-dumping regulations.     

International trade in used cars and problems of economic development

This paper provides a price-theoretic explanation of the well-known phenomenon that automobiles in developing countries depreciate less rapidly and are scrapped at a greater age than they are in industrial countries. This paper then argues that the renewal of barriers to free trade in used cars would lead to substantial welfare gains for developing countries through both capital gains implicit in the arbitrage and positive externalities from car repair industries. Negative externalities from increased car supplies are evaluated and the final part of this paper considers what policies might be needed to develop international trade in used cars on a large scale.     

Price Fluctuations and Growth Patterns in Singapore's Trade, 1831–1913

Using a newly created trade price index, this paper determines the real growth rate of Singapore's trade during 1831–1913. We find that Singapore's trade grew between 1831 and 1873 at a higher rate than during the later period. An analysis of the terms of trade and purchasing power parity reveals that the growth pattern of Singapore's entrepôt trade changed after 1850 from growth fuelled by transit trade of industrial products to balanced growth between regional imports and exports. This change resulted from the operation of the international monetary system, which enhanced market integration between Britain and Southeast Asia via Singapore.     

TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND WAGE PREMIUM IN ARGENTINA: THE ROLE OF TRADE FACTOR INTENSITY

During the 1990s, several Latin American countries implemented policies directed to the removal of barriers on international trade. However, there is a perception that reforms, especially trade liberalization, failed to deliver on their promises, easing the way for policies aimed at reversing some of them. Following Wood's hypothesis, we allow for the effects of liberalization to vary, depending on the skill intensity of production. The evidence confirms that the role of trade liberalization has been relatively small, but controlling for the presence of endogeneity gives larger estimates. Contrary to previous evidence, the wage premium of skilled workers was more sensitive to the increase of skill‐intensive exports than to that of unskilled‐intensive imports.     

Changes in services trade barriers in banking and their impact: the case of the ASEAN+3

Although there has been extensive research on the ASEAN+3 countries, which reveals a synchronisation of economic policies, including exchange rate management policies, research on the regional pattern of trade policies in the banking sector is limited. We evaluate the trade barriers in banking and their evolution, using data from three sequential surveys conducted by the World Bank and surveys by other international organisations. We find that the country dispersions in trade‐restricting policies are stable over time. Moreover, we find no evidence of moves in the direction of liberalisation in the sector. The economic modelling undertaken provides an indication of the real income gains and the cost increases of the policies adopted.     

Protection and international stability

Summary Since World War II trade negotiations under GATT reduced tariff protection to one-eighth of its pre-war level. From the mid 1970s however, protection increased again, in particular non-tariff barriers were being used. Furthermore, strategic trade policies use subsidies and other non-border protective measures. Protection prevents the world economy from gaining full benefits from specialization combined with expansion of trade. Unlike tariffs, non-tariff barriers fragment the market and encourage a bilateral approach in negotiating trade agreements. Strategic trade policies are difficult to apply properly and may evoke retaliation. Nondiscrimination is the main principle of GATT, on which the present international trading system is based. In order to maintain it, trade negotiations under GATT will hopefully lead to international consensus on the proper use of non-tariff barriers and instruments of strategic trade policies.[/p]     

Endogenous and exogenous variables in trade agreement policy:

Abstract

Trade agreement negotiations are the forum in which a state tries to synchronise its trade policies with other countries. This article examines the effects of endogenous and exogenous variables in trade agreement decision-making. The study concentrates on Finland's most important trade agreement negotiations with the Soviet Union, Germany, Great Britain, and EFT A from the 1930s to the 1960s. Finland was a small, open economy that was dependent on foreign trade. In the 1930s Finland had to adapt to international protectionism, which came to dominate international trade until the late 1950s. During the Second World War Finland had to regulate her foreign trade as a part of rationing systems. After the war protectionist ideas continued to dominate international trade policy decision-making. Accordingly, many regulative policies survived into the post-war period too. Finally, deregulation in Finnish foreign trade policy started in the late 1950s, the FINN-EFTA-negotiations being the final turning point to a more liberal era in foreign trade. The essential question in the article is, what kind of influence did the endogenous interests have on Finnish trade policy decision-making considering the various situations in international politics, for example, protectionist and deregulative tendencies.     

Insecure Resources,Bilateral Trade,and Endogenous Predation: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Conflict and Trade

This article analyzes how interstate conflict over resources affects the incentives to trade and how greater trade openness affects the endogenous decisions of arming by enemy countries. We identify conditions under which there is trade between two adversary countries and show that each adversary's arming affects domestic welfare in three different ways. The first is an export-revenue effect, which increases welfare because arming causes export revenue to go up (i.e., there is an arming-induced terms-of-trade improvement). The second is a resource-predation effect, which increases welfare because arming increases the appropriation of a rival country's resource input to produce a consumption good. The third is an output-distortion effect, which reduces welfare because arming lowers the domestic production of civilian goods. Based on these effects, we show circumstances in which greater trade openness reduces the intensity of arming. We also discuss the implications of resource security asymmetry for conflict and trade.     

Indonesia's Trade and Price Interventions: Pro-Java and Pro-Urban

In 1987 and 1995 Indonesia's price and trade policies (intervention regime) increased the income of Java's urban centres and reduced that of people living in rural Java and the other islands. This happened because the regime protected manufacturing activities, most of them located in Jakarta, Bandung and Surabaya, and taxed primary sector based activities, located outside urban Java. It protected some primary sector based activities directly, but the entire intervention regime, with manufacturing protection included, taxed them. As a result, regions deriving income from primary sector based activities lost. Indonesia's intervention regime is regressive: it transfers income from poorer to richer regions. This regime and its effects on regional incomes continue. Governments have designed programs to raise the income of Eastern Indonesia, but have omitted the most effective instrument: opening the economy to international competition. A serious attempt to reduce regional income disparities should begin by eliminating barriers to international trade.     

Rebalancing and the Chinese VAT: Some numerical simulation results

This paper presents numerical simulation results that suggest that China can both reduce its trade imbalance and receive welfare benefits by switching the value added tax (VAT) regime from the current destination principle to an origin principle. We modify the traditional general equilibrium tax model to capture endogenous trade imbalances along with endogenous factor supply, a fixed exchange rate and a non-accommodative monetary policy structure which supports the Chinese trade imbalance. We calibrate model parameters to 2008 data and simulate counterfactual equilibrium for VAT tax basis switches in which the trade imbalance changes. Our results suggest that given China's trade surplus VAT regime switching to an origin basis can decrease China's trade surplus by over 40%, and additionally increase Chinese and world welfare. This has implications for present G20 discussions on finding ways to adjust global trade imbalances.     

The sustainability of trade deficits in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the Indian economy

This study examines the long-run relationship between exports and imports of the Indian economy during 1950–51 to 2008–09. Applying unit root test and cointegration technique that allows for endogenously determined structural break in the relationship, the results do not support the existence of any long-run equilibrium relationship between exports and imports and interest payments on net debt for India. Individually exports and imports have multiple breaks clustered roughly around three periods: early and mid seventies – the ‘comfort period’ in the country's balance of payments; 1986–87 that witnessed a sudden jump in exports trend after experiencing a flat trend in the first half of 1980s; and 1997–98 following the East Asian currency crisis. The findings imply that India's macroeconomic policies have not been very effective to ensure sustainability of trade deficit in the long-run and suggest that India is in violation of its international budget constraint.     

Empirical Analysis of the Structure of Sino-US Agricultural Trade

This paper empirically analyzes the structure of agricultural trade between China and the USA from 1996 to 2005, using different trade indexes such as the Grubel—Lloyd Index, the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index, the Finger—Kreinin Similitude Index and the Export Diversification Index, with a focus on the issues impeding Sino‐US agricultural trade. We found that over the period of 1996 to 2005, inter‐industry trade outweighed intra‐industry trade in Sino‐US agricultural trade, and that bilateral trade was more complementary than competitive. At the same time, China's agricultural exports were more diversified than USA exports, but China's degree of diversification steadily declined during the sample period. The findings indicate that there exists great potential for further development of agricultural trade between China and the USA, and that positive and effective trade policies will result in maximization of potential agricultural trade development and will bring forth mutual benefits to both countries.     

CO2 Emissions Embodied in China＇s Foreign Trade： An Investigation from the Perspective of Global Vertical Specialization

In light of the growth in vertically specialized in global trade, the present paper uses input output tables from the World Input-Output Database to construct an environmental multi regional input-output model to calculate the CO2 emissions embodied in China＇s international trade during 1995-2009. The advantage of this model lies in its incorporation of the re exported CO2 emissions component embodied in trade and its ability to differentiate domestic sourced CO2 emissions from foreign-sourced CO2 emissions in trade. The results show that carbon emissions embodied in both China＇s exports and imports increased significantly during 1995-2009. One important reason for this is that the re-exported carbon emissions embodied in China＇s imported intermediate inputs increased substantially during this period. Our research reveals that accelerating the transformation of trade pattern and upgrading processing trade should be emphasized in the formulation of policy to prompt CO 2 emissions abatement in China.     

Productivity change and the effects of policy reform in China's agriculture since 1979

During China's rural reforms, policies were frequently adjusted. Most policies favoured the continuation and deepening of reform; but some were contradictory or even led to regression in the reform process. How have the rural reforms affected China's agricultural production over the past three decades; and what lessons can be learned to aid the future course of reform? To answer these questions, this study estimates productivity change in China's agriculture and evaluates the effects of policy on agricultural output during the reform period. Aggregated provincial‐level data for the 1979–2008 period are used in a translog production frontier model to estimate indices of total factor productivity (TFP) change and its three components—technical change, technical efficiency change, and a scale effect—with a focus on explaining the variation in technical efficiency. The estimation results show that the impressive improvement of TFP change is dominated by the technical change component. However, technical efficiency change and scale effects have worked against the improvement in TFP change in most periods. To improve technical efficiency, social welfare policies designed to eliminate the rural–urban divide, and reform polices focusing on factor market reforms, such as reform of the household registration system (hukou) and reform of land rights, seem to hold some potential.     

Input Trade Liberalization and the Export Duration of Products: Evidence from China

This paper introduces a quasi‐natural experimental framework into trade policy evaluation and reassesses China's trade liberalization through the survival of export products. We use propensity score matching and China's dual trade system to design a quasi‐natural experiment based on Chinese industrial enterprises, customs import and export, and tariff data over the period of 2000–2006; we then use survival analysis to study the impacts of China's trade liberalization on the export duration of manufacturing firms’ products. We find that the substantial reduction in import tariffs after China's accession to the World Trade Organization enhances the export duration of firm products, indicating that trade liberalization ameliorates the survival of export products. The promotion effects of tariff reduction on export duration are obviously stronger for core products than for noncore products.     

The role of information sharing in trade credit distribution: evidence from Thailand

Prior research has shown that information sharing among lenders facilitates bank credit allocation and reduces default rates. We examine the role of information sharing in trade credit allocation using a sample of publicly traded firms in Thailand over the 1994–2005 period. Taking the establishment of a private credit bureau in 1999 as signalling improvement in information sharing among lenders, we obtain three main results in the improved information sharing period: (1) Thai firms have become less dependent on supplier credit; (2) financially constrained firms redistribute more funds via trade credit; and (3) the relationships between the use of trade credit and firm‐specific factors such as liquidity, free cash flow, tangible assets, interest cost ratio, and firm size weaken as information sharing improves. Our results are consistent with the view that better information sharing facilitates credit allocation. Hence, policies aiming at facilitating information exchange among financial intermediaries should be supported. We also find support for the view that bank credit substitutes for trade credit. This substitution lowers firms' cost of capital, given that trade credit is assumed to be more costly than bank loans.