Large Shareholder Tunneling and Risk of Stock Price Crash： Evidence from China

Although several studies have examined the economic consequences of large shareholders＇ tunneling behavior, little attention has been paid to the negative effects of tunneling on firms＇ extreme events. In this article, we investigate how tunneling behavior affects firm-level stock price crashes. The findings indicate that the probability of stock price crashes is positively associated with the extent of tunneling behavior by large shareholders. The positive relationship is more pronounced after the split of share structure reform and is moderated by the firm＇s financial conditions. This study contributes to the emerging body of literature focusing on the economic consequences of tunneling and stock price crashes. The conclusions drawn from the study also provide a frame of reference for investor protection and investment portfolios based on large shareholders＇ tunneling behavior in China.     

Linking Ethics and Risk Management in Taxation: Evidence from an Exploratory Study in Ireland and the UK

Ethical dilemmas involving tax issues were identified by members of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants as posing the most difficult ethical problem for them (Finn et al., Journal of Business Ethics 7(8), pp. 607–609, 1988). The KPMG tax shelter fraud case proves that the tax profession has not gone untainted in the age of numerous accounting and corporate scandals, such as the Enron débacle (Sikka and Hampton, Accounting Forum 29(3), 325–343, 2005). High-profile scandals serve to highlight the problems caused by differences in ethical judgement among accountants and tax practitioners and the issue of ethics has been brought publicly to the forefront of the profession. Nevertheless, the nature and dimension of ethical issues in tax practice have been largely unexplored (Erard, Journal of Public Economics 52(2), 163–197, 1993; Marshall et al., Journal of Business Ethics 17(12), 1265–1279, 1998; Frecknall Hughes, Unpublished PhD Thesis, The University of Leeds, 2002). This research aims to contribute to the debate on ethics in tax practice by reporting interview data on tax practitioners’ perceptions of ethics in the jurisdictions of Ireland and the United Kingdom and exploring the link or equation of ethics with risk management.     

增值税费用特性--来自中国情境下的经验证据

通过增值税、营业税的对比研究,表明增值税与营业税同样显著地影响企业盈余,也同样是税务筹划关注的重要税种,但因增值税未纳入利润表,给企业管理层提供了隐秘的税务筹划机会。建议将增值税费用化处理并纳入利润表,既有利于“营改增”后的税收监管,还能约束企业管理层的税务筹划,更真实地反映企业盈余。研究还发现,公司治理结构中董事长、总经理的职位若由同一人担任,可显著影响增值税的现金流动,这应是完善公司治理的方向。     

Flow toxicity of high-frequency trading and its impact on price volatility: Evidence from the KOSPI 200 futures market

We examine the relation between high-frequency trading, flow toxicity, and short-term volatility during both normal and stressful periods. Using transaction data for the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) futures, we find the Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN) useful in measuring flow toxicity as it predicts short-term volatility effectively. We further show that high-frequency trading is negatively related to VPIN and short-term volatility during normal times but has a positive association during stressful periods. Finally, we advocate the use of bulk-volume classification (BVC) by presenting evidence that the initiator identified by BVC trades at more favorable prices than the true trade initiator.     

The role of processing trade in exporters' responses to exchange rate: Evidence from China

Processing trade is an important exporting mode for many countries developed by the export-oriented industrialisation such as 1960s Japan, 1990s Korea and 2000s China. Exporters who rely on processing trade for foreign profits do not enjoy much market power, and hence care more about exchange rate changes. We develop a model to illustrate how processing trade affects exporters' responses to exchange rate fluctuations. The model suggests that the elasticity of export price with respect to exchange rate for processing-trade exporters is greater than that of the ordinary-trade exporters, while the elasticity of export quantity of processing-trade exporters is smaller compared to their ordinary-trade counterparts. Most developing countries' governments offer processing-trade exporters better tax/tariff reduction policy to encourage exporting, which grants processing-trade exporters additional advantage to adjust more on export price and less on quantity when facing changes in exchange rate and therefore causes their different responses to exchange rate fluctuations. We find strong empirical supports by studying the data from China, which is the largest developing country and biggest processing-trade exporter.     

外国直接投资与中国人力资本成长的实证分析——以“长三角”为例

文章从人力资本存量水平和人力资本效率水平两个角度,以“长三角”地区为案例,集中探讨了外商直接投资对我国人力资本成长的影响。研究资料显示,“长三角”地区外国直接投资每增加1%,该地区平均实际工资水平将增加0.31%。另一方面,从“长三角”地区近年来有外国直接投资支撑的制造业的劳动生产率的变化来看,同其它较少外国直接投资或者无外国直接投资支撑的行业相比,其人力资本效率水平一直保持在相对较高的水平上。“长三角”地区人力资本成长的政策含义是,今后外国直接投资的引进应当在遵循比较优势和要素自由流动的原则基础上,尽可能地与我国产业结构乃至就业结构的调整方向保持一致,而盲目追求外国直接投资的数量规模则是有害的。     

The Impact of IFRS Convergence on the Effectiveness of Accounting Information for Share Valuation: Evidence from the Mainland of China

This study examines whether the reconciliation amounts between IFRS and PRC GAAP provide additional incremental value-relevant information. More specifically, it investigates whether firms applying IFRS experience an increase in the quality of accounting information in the post-IFRS convergence period. Results show that IFRS convergence increases the values of balance-sheet items and enlarges variation across firms. Moreover, there is no difference in the explanatory power of value relevance of accounting information under IFRS and PRC GAAP for share prices and returns of A-shares. The incremental value relevance analysis suggests that the IFRS adjustments to earnings are value relevant, whereas the adjustments to book values are not. The IFRS adjustments to change in inventory are value relevant for predicting future operating cash flows. Finally, accounting quality improved in post-convergence period. These results are robust after controlling for the unique characteristics of Chinese firms.     

The impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and oil exports on real GDP in Syria: Evidence from the ARDL approach

This paper investigates the impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and trade on real GDP and real GDP growth in the Syrian economy over the period of 1990Q1–2010Q4. To this end, we first construct a parallel market exchange rate volatility indicator. Second, we estimate an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model where we include our indicator of volatility among the main determinants of real GDP. Our findings imply that real GDP can be explained by three main variables: parallel market exchange rate, money supply, and oil exports. The long-run equilibrium reveals that parallel market exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on real GDP compared to the positive impact of money supply and oil exports. In contrast, the short-run impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility on real GDP growth is positive and very small counter to the long-run impact. Furthermore, the coefficient of the error correction term of the estimated ARDL model indicates that real GDP deviation from the equilibrium level will be corrected by about 10% after each quarter.     

我国税收政策对经济增长的非线性效应研究——基于总量与结构效应双重视角的实证分析

全面分析与科学把握我国税收政策方向与节奏不仅事关政府宏观调控与驾驭经济能力的提升,更是实现有质量、有效益、可持续经济增长的关键。文章首先基于创新驱动经济增长的内生增长模型构建税收对经济增长影响的理论分析框架,然后采用MS-VAR模型与利用中国季度数据,从总量与结构双重视角实证考察我国税收政策对经济增长的影响,结果发现：一是当处于区制1时,无论是税收的总量抑或结构效应,均表现出非凯恩斯主义特征,但并不显著;二是当位于区制2时,税收对经济增长的总量影响表现为凯恩斯效应,而商品税与所得税对经济增长的影响存在显著差异。其中商品税与经济增长正相关,所得税与经济增长负相关。另外无论是税收的总量效应抑或结构效应,在继续维持各自区制内的稳定性方面表现都非常强,从一个区制向另一个区制发生转换的概率非常小。文章研究结论对于创新政府宏观调控方式与增强税收政策调控的前瞻性、针对性与有效性具有非常重要的理论与实际意义。     

The 2009 Nobel Prize in Economics to Oliver E. Williamson: Recognition of the Influence of Transaction Cost Economics on Business Research

This article provides an introduction to the Journal of Retailing Special Issue dedicated to Oliver Williamson and transaction cost economics. The paper briefly outlines transaction cost economics contributions to marketing and related social sciences.     

我国对外贸易顺差周期波动的实证分析:1978-2005年

近几年来,我国对外贸易顺差持续增长,本文用增长率直接法、增长率趋势法分析了我国对外贸易顺差的短周期、中周期和中长周期波动,并采用ARMA模型预测了我国对外贸易顺差在下一阶段的周期波动情况。研究结果表明,自1978年以来,我国对外贸易顺差经历了8次短周期波动、3次中周期波动(其中第三次中周期波动具有在适度高位平滑化的特征)和2次中长周期波动,目前正处在第二个中长周期波动的扩张期。     

Organizational Change in Difficult Times: A Case Study on the Top Management Team of Founder Group from 1999 to 2008

This paper examines organizational changes in Founder Group during 1999–2008, one of the leading computer manufacturers in China. It aims to reveal the basic logic behind the top management team’s behaviors for organizational change in firms facing difficulties. Results show that building a strong management team is a prerequisite for successful organizational changes. Furthermore, there is evidence indicating that top managers should make strategic adjustment, and seek solution to cash-flow-related problems to achieve successful organizational transition.     

金融危机下贸易保护对中国出口影响的实证分析——以对美出口机电产品遭遇技术性贸易壁垒为例

伴随着美国金融危机引起的世界经济衰退,贸易保护主义出现抬头趋势。文章以机电产品对美出口遭遇技术性贸易壁垒为例,通过协整分析、脉冲响应、方差分解等方法对金融危机下贸易保护对我国出口的短期冲击进行实证研究。结果表明,金融危机下经济的不景气反而促进了中国的出口,但有可能恶化出口商品结构,而贸易保护和总需求下降是严重抑制中国出口的主要因素,引入金融危机冲击这一虚拟变量后,贸易保护的影响加剧。因此,扩大国内外需求和冲破贸易壁垒限制是解决出口下行的根本途径。     

国内社会政策领域的研究方法考察:基于2007-2010年核心期刊论文的内容分析

采用定量与定性相结合的方法,对近三年发表于核心期刊的389篇社会政策研究文章所使用的研究方法进行了内容分析。在我国的社会政策研究中,规范性研究较多,实证性研究较少,实证研究中主要使用的是调查研究、实地研究、文献研究与制度分析等研究方法,其中也确实涌现出了一批较为规范的实证研究,但是还远未能形成与国际接轨的研究方法体系,这也阻止了我国社会政策学科的专业化和本土化。应该加强社会政策研究方法体系的建设,促进社会政策学科的成熟,为社会政策的理论与实践提供研究工具上的支撑。     

收入分配对不发达地区农户消费需求影响的实证分析

基于陕西省1990-2003数据实证研究表明,在不发达地区尤其是西部地区农村,农村收入差距与农户总消费是显著负相关的,收入差距扩大将降低总消费水平。在不损害农村经济效率的前提下,要缩小收入分配差距,增加农村低收入阶层收入,扩大中等收入阶层,改进和完善农村基础设施,改善农民生存环境,增加面向不发达地区农村的教育投入。     

我国大中型工业企业创新能力地区差距及变迁——基于1999-2010年面板数据的分析

本文采用1999-2010年我国30个省市面板数据,利用改进的TOPSIS法和锡尔熵分解模型测度了我国大中型工业企业的创新能力区域差距及变化趋势。研究结果表明,就总体而言,我国大中型工业企业创新能力表现出较大的空间差异性,区域差距显著并呈扩大趋势;从区域内部差异来说,东南地区、大西南地区及大西北地区大中型工业企业创新能力省际差距较大,长三角地区和中部地区省际差距较小;对我国大中型工业企业创新能力区域差距影响最大的因素是组间差距,而组内差距影响相对较小。