城市轨道交通投融资管理相关问题研究

城市轨道交通现行投融资模式主要分政府财政投融资模式、商业投融资模式和混合投融资模式三种类型,在分析城市轨道交通建设投融资体制所存在不足的基础上,提出完善城市轨道交通投融资管理措施的建议：建立城市轨道市场化投融资体系,完善政府投资决策和管理方式,建立健全有利于吸引社会投资决策的政策法规。     

Quantification of the non-transport benefits resulting from rail investment

Traditional methods of evaluation have not been very successful in accounting for non-transport benefits resulting from rail investments. But increasingly, these factors are becoming more important in well-developed transport networks, as the effects of additional links or capacity cannot be justified in transport terms alone. This paper brings together the evidence at three separate levels arguing that there are different impacts that must be investigated at different levels with appropriate methods. At the macroeconomic level, regional network effects can be identified, as can the impacts on the economy as measured through changes in output and productivity. At the meso level, the impacts relate more to agglomeration economies and labour market effects, with some additional network and environmental consequences. At the micro level, the impacts are determined by the land and property market effects. Examples of rail investment are given for each of the scales of analysis, and conclusions are drawn on the future directions and challenges for the quantification of both transport and non-transport benefits.     

An analysis of air mass effects on rail ridership in three US cities

This paper examines whether daily weather affects ridership in urban transportation systems. When examining human–weather relationships, it is often advantageous to examine air masses, which take into account the entire parcel of air over a region. Spatial synoptic classification characterizes air masses based upon numerous meteorological variables at a given location. Thus, rather than examining temperature or precipitation individually, here we compare daily ridership to synoptic air mass classifications for three urban rail systems: Chicago Transit Authority (CTA), Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART), and the Hudson–Bergen light-rail line in northern New Jersey. Air masses are found to have a significant impact on daily rail ridership, with usage typically increasing on dry, comfortable days and decreasing on moist, cool ones, particularly on weekends. Although the comfort of a particular air mass changes throughout the year, seasonality is not a significant factor with respect to the air mass–ridership relationship. The results of this study can benefit rail system managers who must predict daily ridership or in the development of cost-benefit analyses for station improvements.     

经济学视角的高速铁路盈利能力分析

高速铁路盈利性是其财务可持续性的直接反映,是其投融资模式的直接反映,是我国高速铁路和铁路产业发展形态的直接反映。高速铁路发展模式主要包括股权主导型发展模式、负债主导型发展模式、财政主导型发展模式三种类型。我国高速铁路公益性突出,采用的主要是负债主导型发展模式,在铁路价格受到严格管制,市场化水平有待提升的情况下,亟需构建多渠道长效补贴机制,以克服高速铁路可能产生的营运困难。美国、日本、欧盟等国家和地区的经验教训也证明了构建长效补贴机制、进行铁路产业改革、保持铁路财务可持续性的必要性。     

高速铁路与转变经济发展方式

将经济发展理论与中国高速铁路发展实践紧密结合,论述高速铁路发展在推动中国经济结构调整、带动产业结构升级、促进生态文明建设与和谐社会建设方面的重要作用。认为高速铁路事业的蓬勃发展,是中国转变经济发展方式、建设社会主义和谐社会的重要推动力量。     

Urban rail systems investments: an analysis of the impacts on property values and residents’ location

Light rail, metro and other urban rail transit systems can play a significant role in improving the attractiveness and quality of urban public transport. They can influence the attractiveness of locations near the stations and improve accessibility for these locations. Furthermore urban rail can improve a location’s attractiveness by its image effect: it makes a station appear modern and dynamic, and thus raises the status of this location.This paper summarises findings on the land-use and economic impacts of the urban rail system of the city of Naples over time and space. It examines changes in residential and non-residential (offices and retail) property prices around the newly built stations between 2001 and 2008 as well as the changes in the number of residents for the same station catchment areas. Ad hoc station control areas have been specified in order to compare the results of these changes. Results show that values in station control areas are lower than those of those of the stations catchment areas.     

Analysis of mobility impacts of the high speed Rome-Naples rail link using withinday dynamic mode service choice models

The decrease in travel times, the better quality of the supplied services and the improved accessibility are the main factors of success of High Speed Rail links.In this paper, evidence of the impacts of the High Speed Rail line between Rome and Naples in Italy will be provided on the basis of a survey which was carried out in March 2008.A Revealed Preference (RP) survey was undertaken by Trenitalia (the Commercial Division of Italian railways) and three different questionnaires were prepared to be submitted to car users, Intercity train users and High Speed train users. They all have in common questions concerning the socioeconomic characteristics of the users, questions related to the existence of possible time constraints for the trip undertaken and questions concerning previous travel choices.Data from Trenitalia highlighted that the use of car and of Intercity trains had almost remained unchanged during the few years of operation of the High Speed service. However, a generated demand was derived from the use of this High Speed Rail link and this means that the introduction of the High Speed service between Rome and Naples probably had impacts, as excepted, on mobility choices (i.e. increase in trip frequency, new trips never done before, etc.). Data gathered were used first of all to understand this phenomenon and then to estimate a mode choice model to reproduce/forecast modal share. Specifically the choice between car and rail was modelled through a schedule based approach and with a Nested Logit model with the “train” utility function including late and early penalties.     

C篇：京津城际铁路对京津地区经济社会发展的作用

京津城际铁路是我国第一条连接两个城市的高速铁路,它对加速北京和天津的经济社会发展、推进北京与天津的同城化和一体化进程、提升京津冀乃至环渤海地区的区域经济地位都具有重要作用。运营一年的实践表明这些作用十分明显。     

The application of stochastic frontier panel models in economic regulation: Experience from the European rail sector

This paper shows how stochastic frontier panel techniques can be used by economic regulators to benchmark regulated firms against international best practice. We utilise a unique, panel dataset of European rail infrastructure managers (1996-2006). A time-varying inefficiency model, with firm-specific time paths for inefficiency, is adopted. The results were used in the 2008 regulatory review of the British infrastructure manager, Network Rail, and showed that the company faced an efficiency gap of around 40% against European best practice - in line with engineering-based evidence. More widely, the paper highlights the advantages of the inefficiency specification adopted for use in economic regulation.     

The impacts of high-speed trains on British economic geography: a study of the UK’s InterCity 125/225 and its effects

The arrival of high-speed trains (HSTs) leads to unprecedented time-space effects, potentially assisting face-to-face contacts in knowledge-generating process, yet its wider spatial-economic impacts are still open to debate. This research attempts to fill in this gap with empirical evidence by studying the inter-regional impacts of upgraded British InterCity 125/225 on British economic geography over 30 years. The six study routes of London-outbound trains serving major railways stations in 26 local authorities were selected as units of analysis, with the observation of differential effects both between HSTs and non-HSTs towns and among each group of towns, to understand time-space effects of InterCity 125/225 whose potential impacts on local economic strength and knowledge intensive development. The key findings suggest that the differential HST effects on British economic geography could be classified into three influential zones, namely 1-h, 2-h, and over-2-h towns. HST has had substantial and demonstrable effects in aiding this transition within a 2-h travel limit of London, thus helping to generate renewed economic growth, but that the effects have not been automatic or universal. Regarding future British HST policy, the implications arising from this study is that cities connected to a new HST could seize opportunities which non-HST cities will not be able to do so, but this is not a zero-sum situation. Instead, it involves a national strategy to develop a hierarchical network with HST between London and key regional hubs, well integrated at these hubs with intra-regional transport systems. This indicates a strong case for a finer-grained and deeper probing analysis at an intra-regional level of the potential for rail improvement as an agent of change in city-region development. We hope to report further on this in a subsequent paper.     

轨道交通建设项目设计安全风险控制策略研究

轨道交通建设项目是包括铁路、轻轨、地铁在内的工程建设项目。由于建设者缺乏对安全风险的重视及管理不当等原因,导致当前轨道交通建设安全事故频频发生,如何有效控制轨道交通建设安全风险具有重要意义。通过对近年来轨道交通安全事故的统计分析,指出设计是造成轨道交通建设安全风险的重要原因,运用因果连锁理论对设计安全风险因素进行分析,提出树立全员安全意识、建立专门安全管理组织、建立完善的设计安全管理制度是控制设计安全风险的关键,并以设计的生命周期为主线提出了设计安全风险的具体控制措施。     

Impacts of high-speed rail on domestic air transportation in China

This study investigates the impacts of high-speed rail (HSR) on domestic air transportation in China using a new comprehensive modeling framework utilizing both demand and supply perspectives. For the first time the assessment was conducted using an improved panel regression model by taking into account of the detailed opening schedules of various HSR services during the period 2001–2014. The research findings reveal that the deployed HSR services have a significant substitutional effect on domestic air transportation in China, but the effect varies across different HSR routes, travel distance and city type. Specifically, the research found a decrease in domestic passengers of 28.2%, in flights of 24.6% and in seat capacity of 27.9% after the introduction of HSR services. The impacts are found much stronger among those air routes that connect major hub within a distance range of 500 to 800 km. The uneven nature of the impact can be seen in the different experiences of selected cities. For example, air travel declined approximately 45% after commencement of the Wuhan-Guangzhou HSR, whereas it fell by 34% after the opening of the Beijing-Shanghai HSR.     

广东省城际轨道交通线网规划方案初探

广东省城际轨道交通规划和建设对于缓解广东省内外交通压力,满足高速发展的广东经济和城市化建设具有重要意义。分析广东省城际轨道交通存在的问题,采用多模块网络层次分析法的线网规划方法,在广东省城镇空间布局和产业发展格局的宏观指导下,详细分析城际客运需求,提出广东省城际轨道交通线网架构,并通过不同线网架构的优缺点分析,给出推荐线网方案。     

Future impacts of coal distribution constraints on coal costs

This study seeks to identify potential capacity constraints within the US rail network that could limit expanded use of coal for electricity generation and hydrogen fuel production. We estimate the costs of alleviating those constraints under various scenarios of future coal demand growth. By 2050, coal transportation is projected to increase 35–90% necessitating rail capital investments of $1.5–11.0 billion. These investments are within the range of historical expenditures in the railroad industry, so it is unlikely that delivered prices of coal will necessarily increase or that rail capacity will be a barrier to a future coal-based “Hydrogen Economy”.     

The impacts of emerging aviation trends on airport infrastructure

The demands on airport infrastructure around the world are both growing and changing. This paper explores what problems these changing demands imply for airports, and how they are coping with them. Growth in demand imposes a problem of allocation of scarce capacity in the short run—how well mechanisms such as the slot system are coping with them is explored. In the long term, increases in capacity are warranted, and how the emerging ownership and regulatory environments for airports will handle these is examined. Changes in patterns of demand will come from new business models, such as low-cost carriers and from new aircraft types, such as the Airbus A380—the implications of these for airports of these are considered. Finally, the issue of airport cost efficiency, and how ownership and regulatory environment impact on it, is examined.     

城际轨道交通多线引入的枢纽站设计理论与方法研究

以惠州客运北站、广州北站为工程实例,重点对城际轨道交通线网贯通运营为主的枢纽站进行分析研究,提出多线引入枢纽站以城市总体规划、综合交通规划为引导,与城市规划和谐共存,实现枢纽站与区间工程统筹协调和综合经济效益发挥,满足车站各类作业需要的综合逐级优化设计理论与方法,为同类项目的设计提供参考。     

The impacts of congestion on commercial vehicle tour characteristics and costs

Analytical modeling and insights, numerical experiments, and real-world tour data are used to understand the impact of congestion on urban tour characteristics, carriers’ costs, and distance/time traveled. This paper categorizes tours into three classes based on their tour efficiency and variable costs structure. Travel time/distance between customers and depot is found to be a crucial factor that exacerbates the negative impacts of congestion. Travel time variability is a significant factor only when travel time between depot and customers is considerable in relation to the maximum tour duration. For each customer, it is possible to define a dimensionless coefficient that provides an indication of the relative impact of congestion on routing constraints. Congestion also affects carriers’ cost structure, as congestion worsens the relative weight of wages and overtime escalates and the relative weight of distance related costs decrease.     

高速铁路网规划和运输组织的理论与实践初探

根据高速铁路的技术特征,对高速铁路、城际铁路的线路走向、车站及站场布局、与其他交通方式无缝化衔接、主要通道客货分线运输、旅客列车运输组织协调等因素进行了分析,对高速铁路路网规划、运输组织理论作了初步探讨,并对高速铁路网规划建设和运输组织实践作了简要分析。     

The impacts of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology on supply chain costs

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is regarded as a promising technology for the optimization of supply chain processes since it improves manufacturing and retail operations from forecasting demand to planning, managing inventory, and distribution. This study uses a simulation model to calculate the expected benefits of an integrated RFID system on a three-echelon supply chain obtained through performance increases in efficiency, accuracy, visibility, and security level. The study investigates how the product value, lead time, and demand uncertainty affect the performance of the integrated RFID supply chain in terms of cost factors at the echelon level.