Exploring the impact of built environment factors on the use of public bikes at bike stations: Case study in Zhongshan,China

Many countries have implemented public bike systems to promote sustainable public transportation. Despite the rapid development of such systems, few studies have investigated how built environment factors affect the use of public bikes at station level using trip data, taking account of the spatial correlation between nearby stations. Built environment factors are strongly associated with travel demand and play an important role in the success of public bike systems. Using trip data from Zhongshan's public bike system, this paper employed a multiple linear regression model to examine the influence of built environment variables on trip demand as well as on the ratio of demand to supply (D/S) at bike stations. It also considered the spatial correlations of PBS usage between nearby stations, using the spatial weighted matrix. These built environment variables mainly refer to station attributes and accessibility, cycling infrastructure, public transport facilities, and land use characteristics. Generally, we found that both trip demand and the ratio of demand to supply at bike stations were positively influenced by population density, length of bike lanes and branch roads, and diverse land-use types near the station, and were negatively influenced by the distance to city center and the number of other nearby stations. However, public transport facilities do not show a significant impact on both demand and D/S at stations, which might be attributed to local modal split. We also found that the PBS usage at stations is positively associated with usage at nearby stations. Model results also suggest that adding a new station (with empty capacity) within a 300 m catchment of a station to share the capacity of the bike station can improve the demand-supply ratio at the station. Referring to both trip demand models and D/S models, regression fits were quite strong with larger R² for weekdays than for weekends and holidays, and for morning and evening peak hours than for off-peak hours. These quantitative analyses and findings can be beneficial to urban planners and operators to improve the demand and turnover of public bikes at bike stations, and to expand or build public bike systems in the future.     

Impact of bus rapid transit on housing price and accessibility changes in Sydney: A repeat sales approach

ABSTRACT

New public transport infrastructure is expected to improve accessibility for local residents, and thus contribute to increased land value. The contribution that a bus rapid transit (BRT) system can make to increased land value is less certain than for rail-based systems, with the literature mostly containing bus-based examples from developing countries with extensive BRT networks. This article considers a BRT system named the Liverpool–Parramatta Transitway (LPT) that was implemented in southwestern Sydney in 2003 to improve public transport accessibility in the local area. A repeat sales model is constructed to investigate the impact of the LPT on residential housing prices and accessibility changes using repeat sales data from before and after the opening of the LPT. This identified little price difference between properties close to LPT stations and outside of the area that could be considered as affected by the LPT service coverage. This outcome is at variance with the theoretical underpinning of land value uplift and other empirical evidence relating to the LPT. Hedonic models using the same repeat sales data investigate the study area in more detail, stratifying the sample by housing type and by comparing separate before and after models. These research outcomes identify the extent to which the BRT system has an impact on local housing prices through accessibility improvements to the study area and provide a deeper understanding as to how the quantification of land value uplift from BRT represents one element of the wider economic benefits of a BRT system.     

Accessibility and proximity effects of bus rapid transit on housing prices: Heterogeneity across price quantiles and space

Bus rapid transit (BRT) systems have mushroomed worldwide in the last few decades. An enriched understanding of BRT capitalization effects is essential. Although the BRT accessibility effect on housing prices has been extensively explored, the effect of proximity to the BRT corridor (which may be related to unattractive landscape and noise pollution) has been little scrutinized. More importantly, whether and how the two effects vary across price levels and space have yet to be sufficiently studied. To this end, we estimate the effect of BRT accessibility and proximity on housing prices by applying a battery of econometric methods (including hedonic pricing models, spatial regression models, quantile regression models, and a geographically weighted regression model) to 5185 observations in the housing market in Xiamen Island, China. The results of this study are: (1) BRT accessibility premiums and proximity penalties simultaneously exist in the housing market; (2) buyers of high-priced housing have a greater willingness to pay for avoiding the nuisances attributed to proximity to the BRT corridor; (3) the effect of BRT on housing prices is spatially heterogeneous; (4) the BRT accessibility effect is larger in suburban areas than in urban areas; and (5) housing prices are more predictable near the city centers than outside the area, which may be because a greater proportion of the price of a house near the city centers is derived from the location (rather than the building structure). Finally, policy implications (e.g., building acoustic barriers and planting vegetation along the BRT corridor and improving the transit service in suburban areas) are discussed.     

Impact of bus rapid transit on residential property prices in Auckland,New Zealand

Dubbed ‘The City of Cars’, congestion is a prominent issue in Auckland, New Zealand. Auckland's first Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system - the Northern Busway - was implemented in 2008. The 6.2-km (km) busway network services the northern suburbs and provides a link to the Central Business District (CBD). This research aims to assess the impact of the Northern Busway on nearby residential property values. Spatio-temporal autoregressive (STAR) modelling is used to examine the accessibility impacts of the BRT under the difference – in – differences (DID) framework alongside a typical OLS and a strictly spatial model. We have observed two main findings. Firstly, the average sale price for properties in the treatment group (within 800 m of the Northern Busway) increased by approximately 3.69% as a result of the opening of the Northern Busway. Second, consistent with previous literature, we find that OLS estimates suffer from high spatial autocorrelation bias, while co-integrating spatial and temporal dependencies within a STAR model improves the precision of estimation. While the models produced a relatively modest accessibility premium on house prices, given traditional importance of private cars coupled with high income levels in the case study area, it would take a generational shift to make a significant impact on house prices as the area becomes more desirable due to reduced traffic congestion/travel time.     

The suburbanization of poverty and changes in access to public transportation in the Triangle Region,NC

During the last 50 years, a number of economic forces led to noteworthy changes in the geography of poverty in the US. Employment decentralization and lack of affordable housing have resulted in many low-income households migrating to suburban areas, and as of today, the majority of the low-income population of metropolitan regions resides in the suburbs. Focusing on the Triangle Region, NC, this study systematically explores the changes in the geography of poverty and transit access over time to better understand how accessibility to transit has changed for the low-income residents. Spatial panel data models are also estimated to investigate the relationship between poverty and transit access at the neighborhood level and how it varies spatially and temporally, while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. Results indicate that between 1990 and 2015, the outer-ring suburbs experienced the highest increase in both poverty and transit access, although improvements in transit access were lower in the recently urbanized areas within the outer-ring suburbs. Inner-ring suburbs experienced a substantial rise in poverty rate and low-income population, and a comparable increase in transit access. Central cities remained the areas with the highest poverty rate and transit access in the Triangle Region but experienced smaller changes over time compared to suburban areas. The findings of the econometric analysis suggest that poverty rate and transit access are not significantly related at the neighborhood level when time-invariant unobservable characteristics are accounted for.     

Spatial analysis of access to and accessibility surrounding train stations: a case study of accessibility for the elderly in Perth,Western Australia

Approximately one-fifth of Perth’s population is aged 60 or older. Projections suggest that this proportion will continue to increase as a result of the large number of children born after the World War II (1946–1964). Access to and accessibility around train stations for the aging population is and will become a more important issue as the elderly population continues to grow. The aim of the paper is to develop and apply a new measure of accessibility to train stations at a fine spatial scale, justified by the special circumstance of the elderly using a case study in Perth, Western Australia. Intercept surveys are used to collect data on factors affecting train station accessibility for patrons aged 60 years or older, at seven highly dispersed train stations. Overall accessibility is measured separately using a composite index based on three travel modes (walk-and-ride, park-and-ride and bus-and-ride). The results illustrate that key variables, such as distance from an origin to a station, walking or driving route directness, land-use diversity, service and facility quality, bus connection to train stations, all affect the accessibility to train stations for the elderly. This implies that improvements to these factors will improve accessibility for this population group.     

Urban rail operators in Turkey: Organisational reform in transit service provision and the impact on planning,operation and system performance

Many cities around the world have seen efforts to restructure the provision of public transport. While transit authorities as public agencies continue to deliver transit services in some cities, many others have privatised these services, have opened up the market to private operators or have outsourced them to newly founded subsidiaries. The situation is no different in Turkey, where new legislation was enacted in the 1980s enabling local authorities to establish corporate companies under their own agency, and to shift to them the entire responsibility for running certain public transport operations. The motivation is often to increase efficiency, productivity and profitability in these operations, although there is a risk that planning and operation may become fragmented under such organisational reforms, making it difficult to maintain coordination in planning and to ensure the provision of an integrated service. This paper analyses this organisational change in public transport in Turkey, focusing on the planning, operation and performance of urban rail systems in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir.     

The impact of low cost airline entry on competition, network expansion, and stock valuations

We conduct event studies and statistical analysis to explore the impact of low cost carriers’ entry on legacy airline stock prices. Oligopoly structures, entry barriers, and high fixed costs make the airline industry highly susceptible to competitive and network expansion impact of low cost airlines’ entry. Positive stock returns are observed, which we interpret as the spillover effects of network expansion. Thus, rising passenger traffic and improved connectivity increase the revenues of legacy airlines to sufficiently offset the low cost carriers’ competitive threats.     

Understanding overall output efficiency in public transit systems: The roles of input regulations,perceived budget and input subsidies

This paper examines the combined effects of subsidies, regulations and perceived budget on overall output and technical efficiency in a sample of single-mode bus transit systems using an indirect production function. The main findings are that the average transit system is 67.21% output efficient and systematic and stochastic technical inefficiencies decrease output. In addition subsidies increase output, regulations decrease output and the overall budget effect is an increase in output. Additionally, it identifies the characteristics of two groups of transit systems whose perceived costs after subsidies and regulations are either less or greater than actual total costs.     

Estimating the influence of crowding and travel time variability on accessibility to jobs in a large public transport network using smart card big data

Accessibility metrics are gaining momentum in public transportation planning and policy-making. However, critical user experience issues such as crowding discomfort and travel time unreliability are still not considered in those accessibility indicators. This paper aims to apply a methodology to build spatiotemporal crowding data and estimate travel time variability in a congested public transport network to improve accessibility calculations. It relies on using multiple big data sources available in most transit systems such as smart card and automatic vehicle location (AVL) data. São Paulo, Brazil, is used as a case study to show the impact of crowding and travel time variability on accessibility to jobs. Our results evidence a population-weighted average reduction of 56.8% in accessibility to jobs in a regular workday morning peak due to crowding discomfort, as well as reductions of 6.2% due to travel time unreliability and 59.2% when both are combined. The findings of this study can be of invaluable help to public transport planners and policymakers, as they show the importance of including both aspects in accessibility indicators for better decision making. Despite some limitations due to data quality and consistency throughout the study period, the proposed approach offers a new way to leverage big data in public transport to enhance policy decisions.     

A geographically weighted regression model to examine the spatial variation of the socioeconomic and land-use factors associated with Strava bike activity in Austin,Texas

Despite evidence showing the spatial nonstationarity of the determinants of bike activity, very few studies have addressed the phenomena, probably due to the limited sample size of the traditional count data. To address this gap, this study demonstrated the applicability of Strava bike activity data by developing a geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) model that can reveal how the influence of socioeconomic and land-use factors vary across a region. The city of Austin was selected as a case study, and Strava bike volume was gleaned from 1494 intersections. The representativeness of the Strava data was first examined by comparing those data with the video-based actual bicycle volume data from 43 intersections in the study area. Despite the high deviation in several locations, Strava volume exhibited moderate linear relationships with actual volume. The GWPR model developed in this study outperformed the traditional global model and revealed significant spatial variability of nine variables related to age, income, education, transit stops, hub locations, offices, schools, trails, and sidewalk facilities. Notable spatial variations on bike activity were observed across the study area in terms of magnitude, direction, and significance of the impact for all model variables. The analysis and discussion offer guidance to practitioners and policy makers in tailoring policies and programs that consider the spatial context. The study also provides insights for understanding the potential use of crowdsourced data in examining bike activity, especially when resources are limited.     

The impact of car ownership and public transport usage on cancer screening coverage: Empirical evidence using a spatial analysis in England

A spatial analysis has been conducted in England, with the aim to examine the impact of car ownership and public transport usage on breast and cervical cancer screening coverage. District-level cancer screening coverage data (in proportions) and UK census data have been collected and linked. Their effects on cancer screening coverage were modelled by using both non-spatial and spatial models to control for spatial correlation.Significant spatial correlation has been observed and thus spatial model is preferred. It is found that increased car ownership is significantly associated with improved breast and cervical cancer screening coverage. Public transport usage is inversely associated with breast cancer screening coverage; but positively associated with cervical cancer screening. An area with higher median age is associated with higher screening coverage. The effects of other socio-economic factors such as deprivation and economic activity have also been explored with expected results. Some regional differences have been observed, possibly due to unobserved factors.Relevant transport and public health policies are thus required for improved coverage. While restricting access to cars may lead to various benefits in public health, it may also result in worse cancer screening uptake. It is thus recommended that careful consideration should be taken before implementing policy interventions.     

Public bicycle as a feeder mode to rail transit in China: The role of gender,age, income,trip purpose,and bicycle theft experience

A marriage between public bicycle and rail transit presents new opportunities for sustainable transportation in Chinese cities. To examine determinants of public bicycle usage for rail transit access, an intercept survey of feeder mode choice among rail transit users was conducted near rail stations in Nanjing, China. Mode choice models were estimated with five feeder mode alternatives, including car, bus, walk, private bike, and public bike. By differentiating between public and private bicycle modes in the mode choice models, the study reveals the effects of personal demographics, trip characteristics, and station environments on public bicycle usage for rail transit access. Results show that female, older, and low-income rail commuters are less likely to use public bicycle to access rail transit. Rail commuters with bicycle theft experience and making school- or work-related trips are more likely to use public bicycle to access rail transit. Land use variables are largely insignificant in this study except that density shows a positive relationship with walking to rail transit. The results on demographic differences raise equity concerns when it comes to investing in public bicycle systems. Policy implications are discussed for Chinese cities to equitably boost public bicycle integration with rail transit.     

Redistributive effects of bus rapid transit (BRT) on development patterns and property values in Seoul, Korea

This study investigates the redistributive effects of Seoul's bus rapid transit (BRT) system on development patterns and property values using an urban simulation model. The Seoul Metropolitan Integrated Urban Model (SMIUM) combines the Seoul metropolitan input-output model with random utility-based location choice models and endogenous real estate markets.The major findings of this study can be highlighted as follows. First, Seoul's BRT contributes to increased development density in urban centers, acting as a centripetal force to attract firms from the suburbs into urban cores and supporting arguments for Smart Growth proponents. Second, unlike its redistributive effects on nonresidential activities, the BRT has a limited effect on the redistribution of residential activities, implying that residential locations are less sensitive to accessibility improvements made by the BRT than are nonresidential locations. Third, reflecting the transferred space demands from the suburbs to the urban cores, the CBD reaps the highest property value gains, while all of the outer ring zones suffer from reduced property values.     

Estimating the impact of COVID-19 on air travel in the medium and long term using neural network and Monte Carlo simulation

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on the airline industry. Air travel in the United States declined in 2020 with significantly lower domestic and international flights. The dynamic change and uncertainty in the trend of COVID-19 have made it difficult to predict future air travel. This paper aims at developing and testing neural network models that predict domestic and international air travel in the medium and long term based on residents' daily trips by distance, economic condition, COVID-19 severity, and travel restrictions. Data in the United States from various sources were used to train and validate the neural network models, and Monte Carlo simulations were constructed to predict air travel under uncertainty of the pandemic and economic growth. The results show that weekly economic index (WEI) is the most important predictor for air travel. Additionally, daily trips by distance play a more important role in the prediction of domestic air travel than the international one, while travel restrictions seem to have an impact on both. Sensitivity analysis results for four different scenarios indicate that air travel in the future is more sensitive to the change in WEI than the changes in COVID-19 variables. Additionally, even in the best-case scenario, when the pandemic is over and the economy is back to normal, it still takes several years for air travel to return to normal, as before the pandemic. The findings have significant contributions to the literature in COVID-19's impact on air transportation and air travel prediction.     

Residential property value impacts of proximity to transport infrastructure: An investigation of bus rapid transit and heavy rail networks in Brisbane,Australia

Public transport investment is normally targeted at increasing accessibility which land rent theory identifies and will in turn increase land values. There is a clear policy interest in how much land values increase following a new transport investment so as to establish if there is sufficient land value uplift to capture and to help pay or contribute to investment plans. Identifying an uplift for residential land has been well studied in the context of new light rail systems and bus rapid transit (BRT) systems in developing countries but there is little evidence for BRT in developed countries.This paper has two objectives. First, to examine long term impact of BRT in a developed world context in Brisbane, Australia. Brisbane's BRT uses an open system design which contrasts with the closed system design of the successful BRT systems in South America and elsewhere, including the BRT in the suburbs of Sydney, Australia. Second, BRT in Brisbane was introduced to a network already dominated by a radial heavy rail network and this investigation recognises that the uplift from BRT introduction may therefore be different to a BRT in a single mode city. A third motivation is to consider the spatial distribution of uplift which is an essential pre-requisite to understanding the distributional impact if uplift is used to contribute to infrastructure provision.Spatial modelling is used to examine the accessibility impacts of the BRT at a global level. This is followed by Geographical Weighted Regression, used to examine the spatial distribution of accessibility using a local model.The results show that there is greater uplift in Brisbane, as compared to that identified by studies of Sydney's BRT which is likely due to the greater network coverage of BRT in Brisbane and less strong competition of rail. Land value uplift is also spatially distributed over the network giving higher uplift in some areas than others and lower values than typically found with rail based systems in developed countries. However, the degree of uplift is relatively low, with proximity to BRT stations attracting more uplift than proximity to train stations.     

Smartphones,travel time-use,and attitudes to public transport services. Insights from an explorative study of urban dwellers in two Norwegian cities

The uptake of mobile media with internet connection has increased rapidly in almost every part of the world, and this has significantly changed how public transport passengers use their travel time. Studies have documented that use of mobile information and communication technologies (ICT) while traveling has the potential to enrich use of travel time and in some cases, strengthen positive attitudes towards public transport. The alternative hypothesis—that mobile communication technologies make travelers more critical and demanding, e.g., due to the risk of interference—has so far hardly been explored through empirical studies. Based on a web-based survey of travelers in two of the largest cities in Norway (Oslo and Trondheim), this paper investigates how use of smart devices are related to general attitudes toward public transportation services. A segmentation of travelers in three clusters based on their mobile use habits, shows that the most active group of mobile media users—a group of younger and middle-aged urban dwellers—were those who bore the most critical attitudes to the public transport services. In contrast, the groups that used their mobile phones rarely, or less actively, on their public transport trips were more satisfied. The findings suggests that a new generation of “equipped travelers” has developed expectations regarding their public transport journeys that service providers might have problems to fulfill in current times. Thus, there is a risk of the most active smartphone users developing negative attitudes to public transport if (or when) their experiences are not improved.     

The impact of rhino poaching on tourist experiences and future visitation to National Parks in South Africa

Wildlife tourism attracts substantial numbers of tourists worldwide with Africa as the major wildlife viewing destination earning the bulk of its tourism revenue from such tourism. Iconic animals, such as the rhino, are major attractions for tourists to South Africa who holds approximately 80% of the World’s rhino population. However, the rapid increase in rhino poaching activities has reached a crisis point and should the rate of poaching continue to increase Africa’s remaining rhino population will become extinct in the wild within 20 years. How this affects tourists and tourism is still largely unknown. This study shows evidence that rhino poaching and anti-poaching measures do impact tourism in the short term and could affect future visitation to Parks.     

The impact of daily tour service quality on tourist satisfaction and behavioural intentions in an island context: a study on tours to Isla de la Plata,Ecuador

ABSTRACT

This study assesses the impact of daily tour service quality on tourist satisfaction and behavioural intentions in an island context. Using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), the analysis of data collected from 195 participating in a daily tour to Isla de la Plata (Ecuador) showed that all the services examined (transportation by boat, food and beverage, tourist guide and visits) had a significant direct impact on tour satisfaction, having the transportation the highest impact. Moreover, the indirect effect of the daily tours services on behavioural intentions mediated by the satisfaction with the tour was also significant.