Projecting the U.S. gender wage gap 2000–40

This paper projects the gender wage gap for 25–64 year old Americans for the period 2000–40. The analysis uses data from the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics (PSID) for 1995 and 1996 together with the U.S. Census Bureau demographic projections. The method combines the population projections with assumptions regarding the evolution of educational attainment in order to first project the future distribution of skills and, based on these projections, the future size of the gender wage gap. The main set of projections suggests that changing skill characteristics—specifically educational attainment—will continue to close the gender wage gap. However, even in 2040, a substantial pay gap of at least 75 percent of the size of that in 1995 will remain.     

U.S. census data uses

"This article examines the principal applications of the statistics yielded by the 1990 U.S. Census of Population and Housing. Before doing so, however, a framework of census policy and operational features that directly influenced the content of the questionnaires will be outlined.... Having established this background, the uses of census data will be addressed, citing case examples in some instances, for...major groups of data users."     

美元霸权论与我国的应对策略

霸权稳定论是20世纪70年代兴起的西方国际政治经济学主流经济理论之一,它认为具有霸权地位大国的存在,是世界经济稳定和充分发展的必要条件。在经济金融领域,霸权稳定论产生了深远影响,美国通过多种形式推行美元霸权,如金融外交、汇率安排、制定国际规则等。美元霸权给美国带来巨大收益的同时却使世界为之“付费”。本文对霸权稳定论与美元霸权进行评述,并总结归纳了中国应对美元霸权的对策。     

Unit Root Tests,Persistence, and the Unemployment Rate of the U.S. States

In this paper, we investigate the existence of infrequent shocks and the degree of persistence of U.S. state unemployment over the period 1976-2004. We first apply individual Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests and fail to reject the hysteresis hypothesis in forty states. When two changes in level are incorporated, we again fail to reject the hysteresis hypothesis in forty states. Since individual unit root tests normally lack power, we employ the recently developed panel LM unit root tests with up to two changes in level. Only in this case are we able to reject the joint unit root hypothesis in favor of regime stationarity. Computation of half-lives through impulse-response functions indicates the high degree of persistence of U.S. state unemployment. These results contrast with the common belief among scholars that U.S. state unemployment is closer to the natural rate paradigm than to the hysteresis paradigm.     

Structural characteristics of firms and industries and black and white wage inequality in the U.S. economy: 1988

The effects of firm and job characteristics on the wages of blacks and whites are analyzed using data from the 1988 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth [Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1997]. This study focuses on 2,370 full-time private sector employees. The results show that, first, blacks are disproportionately employed in large establishments despite their lower cognitive achievements. Second, blacks do not enjoy significant wage premiums associated with supervisory positions. Third, although the wage gap between blacks and whites is reduced considerably, controlling for education and cognitive skills, the gap increases significantly when structural attributes are included in the wage regressions despite the large wage premiums associated with employment in large establishments.     

Money demand in the euro area: new insights from disaggregated data

Conventional money demand specifications in the euro area have become unstable since 2001. We specify a money demand equation in deviations of individual euro area Member States variables from the euro area average and show that the income elasticity as well as the interest rate semi-elasticity remain stable. The corresponding deep parameters of the utility function have not changed fundamentally. Aggregate money demand instability does therefore not result from altered standard factors determining the preference for holding money. Instead, other factors determine the aggregate monetary overhang. Since monetary developments cannot easily be explained by changing preferences, they should be closely monitored as they may actually be a sign of other factors.     

Field Experiment Tests for Discrimination against Hispanics in the U.S. Rental Housing Market

This article tests for discrimination against Hispanics in the U.S. rental housing market using e‐mail correspondence with landlords advertising units online. We divide Hispanics into two groups: those that appear assimilated into American culture and recent immigrants. We find little difference in the treatment of assimilated Hispanics and whites; however, Hispanics we portray as recent immigrants receive less favorable treatment with margins of net discrimination as large as 6.89% of landlords. We also find discrimination varies significantly at the region level and by the ethnic composition of neighborhoods.     

U.S. petroleum consumption behavior and oil price uncertainty: Tests of cointegration and parameter instability

This study utilizes cointegration theory to correctly characterize U.S. petroleum consumption behavior. Initial estimates show the absence of any long-run, unique relationship among petroleum consumption, real income, and relative prices. However, the introduction of oil price uncertainty into this relationship shows the presence of a cointegrating relationship. Oil price uncertainty was introduced in two ways, namely, as an exogenous I(1) variable and as a regressand. Estimates of the cointegrating relationship are obtained using a variety of techniques such as the Johansen system, the Phillips-Hansen, the Stock-Watson, the Park canonical cointegrating regression, the Phillips spectral, and the Engle-Granger test procedures. Parameter instability of the cointegrating relationship is tested using methods discussed in Hansen [1992] and Hansen and Johansen [1993]. While previous studies in this literature have yielded mixed results on the issue of cointegration and ignored tests for parameter instability of the cointegrated systems, this study has presented new evidence on an empirically stable petroleum oil demand function.     

Public information content and market information efficiency: A comparison between China and the U.S.

Based on the concept that the presence of public information shocks can increase the synchronicity of stock returns, we develop an extended version of the mixture of distribution hypothesis model (MDH) along the lines of Andersen (1996) to measure the public information content embedded in the stock prices. The results show that although we add an additional information structure, the significance of the MDH is still higher than that of Andersen's (1996) model, which indicates that our setting is reasonable. We measure and compare the market effectiveness between China and the United States from 1998 to 2016 by using the public information content calculated by the developed MDH model. The calculation results show that the average public information in the Chinese market is 0.336, which means the market efficiency is slightly lower than 0.317 in the United States.¹ Further analysis shows that market efficiency has increased steadily between 2002 and 2014 and has smaller volatility in the Chinese market. The slow increasing in market efficiency indicate that the securities laws enacted by China in the 1990s and 2000s aimed at promoting the development of the stock market are effective.     

Jobs with different wage determination mechanisms, social efficiency and unemployment

The purpose of this paper is to construct a theoretical framework for the labor market, which is composed of a variety of jobs with different wage determination mechanisms. We identify an equilibrium in which some firms post a wage and others bargain with workers. This paper shows that the proportion of firms adopting wage bargaining in a decentralized equilibrium is below the socially optimal level. We identify policies to increase this proportion and to improve social efficiency. Furthermore, we examine the impact of those policies on unemployment. The results of this study will determine the direction of employment policy on the labor market with various employment styles.     

美国纺织服装区域性生产网络与中美纺织品协议的效应评估

为了应对全球化的挑战,美国与周边的墨西哥和加勒比海地区(CBI)国家合作,形成了一条以纵向一体化为核心的区域性纺织服装生产网络(regional production network,RPN)。由于RPN合作国家是美国纺织产业重要的出口市场,因此后者在该网络中具有既得利益。美国政府进而签订的《中芙纺织品协议》(以下简称"协议")旨在抑制后配额时代中国输美服装类产品对该RPN的冲击。本文就"协议"的实施对相关贸易流量的影响进行了评估。结果显示,"协议"已经对中国输美服装类产品产生贸易破坏效应,而墨西哥和CBI国家对美国的服装出口则从中受益。然而,研究并未显示"协议"的实施有助于美国增加纱线、面料等纺织类产品向RPN合作国家的出口,因而"协议"对美国纺织产业的实际保护效应有必要予以反思。本文的研究结论对于2008年"协议"到期后相关政策的制定和调整具有重要的借鉴意义。     

金融服务与经济增长:美国的经验及启示

长期以来,金融发展与经济增长的关系一直是经济学家关注的热点话题之一。随着金融的日益发展,与此相关的理论研究和经验检验也在不断深化。Schumpeter(1912)早就提出较发达的金融体系有利于降低交易成本和信息成本,因此影响投资决策、储蓄水平和技术创新,进而促进经济增长。约翰·格力和爱得华·肖在20世纪60年代提出了金融能够将储蓄转化为投资而提高社会生产性投资水平的观点。随后,休·帕特里克(HughT.Patrick)从“需求追随”和“供给领先”两方面论证了金融体系在提高存量资本和新增资本配置效率、加速资本积累中的作用。麦金农和肖则…     

Multinationals, production efficiency, and spillover effects: The case of the U.S. auto parts industry

Multinationals, Production Efficiency, and Spillover Effects: The Case of the U.S. Auto Parts Industry. — Since the mid-1980s many of the developing countries have attempted to attract foreign direct investment. The primary reason is access to modern technology although the true impact is still controversial. The U.S. case suggests that even in a developed country FDI can also make a favorable impact on the local industry, but possibly through different channels. FDI can increase efficiency substantially through the enhancement of competitive pressure instead of, or in addition to, technology transfer. The manner in which FDI influences the local economy seems to be very different depending on the development stage of recipient countries.     

美国农业推广的经验与启示

在发达国家中，以美国为代表的农业科技成果推广率已达80%，农业科技对农业总产值的贡献率达到75%以上，我国农业科技推广率和农业科技对农业总产值的贡献率在35%左右，产生这些差距的主要原因在于各自农业科技推广方面的差异。