Financial markets, the pattern of industrial specialization and comparative advantage: Evidence from OECD countries

Due to underlying technological and organizational differences, industries differ in their need for external finance. Since services provided by the financial sector are largely immobile across countries, the pattern of industrial specialization should be influenced by the level of financial development. Among OECD countries we find a strong causal effect of the financial sector on industrial specialization. Further, the financial sector is a source of comparative advantage in a way consistent with the Hecksher-Ohlin-Vanek model. Results are also presented on which aspects of financial systems are important for specialization and comparative advantage.     

Financial constraints and investment: assessing the impact of a World Bank credit program on small and medium enterprises in Sri Lanka

Abstract.  This paper examines the investment behaviour of a sample of small, credit-constrained firms in Sri Lanka. Using a unique panel data set, we analyze and compare the activities of two groups of small firms distinguished by their differential access to financing; one group consists of firms with subsidized loans from the World Bank, while the other group consists of firms without such subsidies. The paper shows that the program led to higher levels of investment for financially constrained firms. However, the evidence is inconclusive on whether the program improved economic efficiency.     

Does financial liberalization improve the allocation of investment?: Micro-evidence from developing countries

Using firm level panel data from 12 developing countries we explore whether financial liberalization improves the efficiency with which investment funds are allocated. A summary index of the efficiency of investment allocation that measures whether investment funds are going to firms with a higher marginal return to capital is developed. We examine the relationship between this and various measures of financial liberalization and find that liberalization increases the efficiency with which investment funds are allocated. This holds after various robustness checks and is consistent with firm level evidence of a stronger association between investment and fundamentals after financial liberalization.     

International Transmission of the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis: Evidence from Japan

We investigate the international transmission of the 2007–2009 financial crisis to Japanese firms by examining both stock returns and changes in operating performance during the crisis. Our results indicate that Japanese firms were affected by the crisis mainly through the trade channel in both stock returns and changes in operating performance. We also find that the liquidity channel played a role in the fall of stock returns in response to the crisis and in the changes in return on assets during the first year of the crisis. We obtain weak evidence for the credit crunch channel and no evidence to support the trade finance channel.     

The impact of exchange rate volatility on plant-level investment: Evidence from Colombia

We estimate the impact of exchange rate volatility on firms' investment decisions in a developing country setting. Employing plant-level panel data from the Colombian Manufacturing Census, we estimate a dynamic investment equation using the system-GMM estimator developed by Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998). We find a robust negative impact of exchange rate volatility, constructed either using a GARCH model or a simple standard deviation measure, on plant investment. Consistent with theory, we also document that the negative effect is mitigated for establishments with higher mark-up or exports, and exacerbated for lower mark-up plants with larger volume of imported intermediates.     

The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the industries of five OECD countries

This paper studies the monetary transmission mechanism using disaggregated industry data from five industrialized countries. Our goal is to document the cross-industry heterogeneity of monetary policy effects and relate it to industry characteristics suggested by monetary transmission theories. Sizable and significant cross-industry differences in the effects of monetary policy are found. Such differences swamp the hardly detectable cross-country variability. Sectoral output responses to monetary policy shocks are systematically related to the industry output durability, financing requirements, borrowing capacity and firm size. These findings are consistent with a quantitatively non-negligible role of financial frictions in the monetary transmission.     

Returns of Small Growth Stocks: An Empirical Analysis

I investigate the mean reversion tendency of small growth stocks. Using a carefully articulated research design employing established and empirically tested principles, my findings should support or refute the anecdotal evidence that small growth stocks make superior investments. The primary motivation for the study springs from the documented differential preference among investors for value and growth stocks. Despite evidence that value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks, investors retain strong interest in growth stocks. Yet in examining the performance of Business Week’s (BW), smaller capitalization companies (called “Hot Growth Companies”) with respect to the overall financial market, Bauman et al. [2002] found positive excess returns in the pre-publication period but negative excess returns in the post-publication period. A limitation of their study is that their analyses relied on only three criteria: sales, BW rank and return on capital, which do not represent completely a firm’s financial health. I replicate Bauman et al.’s study but use a more robust and representative variable set to test the mean reversal hypothesis — Forbes’ financial criteria — and I focus on six variables. In the current study, I look at 4,200 companies listed in Forbes from 1980 to 2000. The results of the expanded study substantiate Bauman et al.’s [2002] study showing that there are positive excess returns in the pre-publication period, but negative excess returns in the post-publication period. An expanded future study will look at five additional variables to see if they make a significant difference on the effects of the returns of small growth stocks.     

Smoothing sudden stops

Emerging economies are often exposed to sudden shortages of international financial resources. Yet domestic agents do not seem to take preventive measures against these sudden stops. We highlight the central role played by the limited development of ex ante (insurance) and ex post (spot) domestic financial markets in generating this collective undervaluation of international resources. We study several policies to counteract the external underinsurance. We do this by solving for the optimal mechanism given the constraints imposed by limited financial development, and then considering the main financial policies—in terms of the model and practical relevance—that implement this solution.     

Financial liberalization,private investment and portfolio choice: Financialization of real sectors in emerging markets

Using firm level panel data, we analyze the impacts of rates of return gap between financial and fixed investments under uncertainty on real investment performance in three emerging markets, Argentina, Mexico and Turkey. Employing a portfolio choice model to explain the low fixed investment rates in developing countries during the 1990s, we suggest that rather than investing in irreversible long-term fixed investments, firms may choose to invest in reversible short-term financial investments depending on respective rates of returns and the overall uncertainty in the economy. The empirical results show that increasing rates of return gap and uncertainty have an economically and statistically significant fixed investment reducing effect while the opposite is true with respect to financial investments.     

Vintage capital and the dynamics of the AK model

This paper analyzes the equilibrium dynamics of an AK-type endogenous growth model with vintage capital. The inclusion of vintage capital leads to oscillatory dynamics governed by replacement echoes, which additionally influence the intercept of the balanced growth path. These features, which are in sharp contrast to those from the standard AK model, can contribute to explaining the short-run deviations observed between investment and growth rates time series. To characterize the optimal solutions of the model we develop analytical and numerical methods that should be of interest for the general resolution of endogenous growth models with vintage capital.     

Information and Communications Technology as a General-Purpose Technology: Evidence from US Industry Data

Abstract. Many people point to information and communications technology (ICT) as the key for understanding the acceleration in productivity in the United States since the mid-1990s. Stories of ICT as a 'general-purpose technology' suggest that measured total factor productivity (TFP) should rise in ICT-using sectors (reflecting either unobserved accumulation of intangible organizational capital; spillovers; or both), but with a long lag. Contemporaneously, however, investments in ICT may be associated with lower TFP as resources are diverted to reorganization and learning. We find that US industry results are consistent with general-purpose technology (GPT) stories: the acceleration after the mid-1990s was broad-based – located primarily in ICT-using industries rather than ICT-producing industries. Furthermore, industry TFP accelerations in the 2000s are positively correlated with (appropriately weighted) industry ICT capital growth in the 1990s. Indeed, as GPT stories would suggest, after controlling for past ICT investment, industry TFP accelerations are negatively correlated with increases in ICT usage in the 2000s.     

Maturity mismatch and financial crises: Evidence from emerging market corporations

Substantial attention has been paid in recent years to the risk of maturity mismatch in emerging markets. Although this risk is microeconomic in nature, the evidence advanced thus far has taken the form of macro correlations. We evaluate this mechanism empirically at the micro level by using a database of over 3000 publicly listed firms from fifteen emerging markets. We measure the risk of maturity mismatch by estimating, at the firm level, the effect on investment of the interaction of short-term exposure and aggregate capital flight. This effect is (statistically) zero, contrary to the prediction of the maturity-mismatch hypothesis. This conclusion is robust to using a variety of different estimators, alternative measures of capital flows, and controls for devaluation effects and access to international capital. We do find evidence that short-term-exposed firms pay higher financing costs, and have lower equity valuations, but not that this reduction in net worth translates into a drop in investment or sales.     

Vertical integration and investor protection in developing countries

The industrial organization of developing countries is characterized by the pervasive use of subcontracting arrangements among small, financially constrained firms. This paper asks whether vertical integration relaxes those financial constraints. It shows that vertical integration trades off the benefits of joint liability against the costs of rendering the supply chain more opaque to external investors. In contrast to the commonly held view that pervasive input and capital market imperfections are conducive to vertical integration, the model predicts that the motives for vertical integration are not necessarily higher in developing countries. In particular, vertical integration is more likely to arise at intermediate levels of investor protection and better contract enforcement with suppliers reduces vertical integration only if financial markets are sufficiently developed. Evidence supporting both predictions is discussed.     

Solving optimal growth models with vintage capital: The dynamic programming approach

This paper deals with an endogenous growth model with vintage capital and, more precisely, with the AK model proposed in [R. Boucekkine, O. Licandro, L.A. Puch, F. del Rio, Vintage capital and the dynamics of the AK model, J. Econ. Theory 120 (1) (2005) 39-72]. In endogenous growth models the introduction of vintage capital allows to explain some growth facts but strongly increases the mathematical difficulties. So far, in this approach, the model is studied by the Maximum Principle; here we develop the Dynamic Programming approach to the same problem by obtaining sharper results and we provide more insight about the economic implications of the model. We explicitly find the value function, the closed loop formula that relates capital and investment, the optimal consumption paths and the long run equilibrium. The short run fluctuations of capital and investment and the relations with the standard AK model are analyzed. Finally the applicability to other models is also discussed.     

Determinants of International Research Collaboration: Evidence from International Co‐Inventions in Asia and Major OECD Countries

International research collaboration has become important in recent years. This paper analyzes what gains drive the expansion of international research collaboration and what costs prevent it, with a special focus on the incidence of international co‐inventions (ICIs) in Asia and major Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. The major findings are as follows. ICIs become more prevalent in those technology sectors where scientific literature becomes important as prior art, inventor team size increases, and the relative inventor resources of the own country in the world declines. Thus, ICIs allow a country to exploit more efficiently the world stock of new knowledge and to realize the gains from combining diverse sources of knowledge and skills. Moreover, the results of estimating a gravity model centered on the USA and Great Britain suggest that language differences measured by Test of English as a Foreign Language scores matter significantly. The results also suggest that exporting from these two countries are significantly and positively associated with ICIs.     

Financial liberalization,financial sector development and growth: Evidence from Malaysia

The objective of this paper is to examine whether financial development leads to economic growth or vice versa in the small open economy of Malaysia. Using time series data from 1960 to 2001, we conduct cointegration and causality tests to assess the finance-growth link by taking the real interest rate and financial repression into account. The empirical evidence suggests that financial liberalization, through removing the repressionist policies, has a favorable effect in stimulating financial sector development. Financial depth and economic development are positively related; but contrary to the conventional findings, our results support Robinson's view that output growth leads to higher financial depth in the long-run.     

Human capital accumulation in R&D-based growth models

This paper develops a model that reproduces the essential aspects of the recent ICT-based economy using the framework of endogenous growth theory in which a central role is played by human capital accumulation. In particular, it considers a multi-sectoral growth model in discrete time with infinite horizon, endogenous growth, embodied technological progress, horizontal differentiation and “lab-equipment” specification of R&D, and with human capital accumulation (represented by the fact that households devote a fraction of their time to schooling), in order to take into account the crucial role of the latter when new technologies are present. In this model it is possible to obtain some important results, both analytically and through simulations, either in the case of constant productivity of schooling and in the case in which this productivity is a function of technological progress. The first conclusion is that the productivity of schooling affects the long run growth of the economy, contrary to the productivities of the other sectors, hence in this model human capital accumulation is the true engine of growth. It is then possible to study the reaction of the economy to different types of shocks, and to compare the results with the empirical evidence. The conclusion is that the model is able to reproduce such evidence, suggesting that the interaction between ICT and human capital is one of the drivers of the recent economic performance.     

Heterogeneity in price setting behavior,spatial disparities and sectoral diversity: Evidence from a panel of Italian firms

In this paper, we analyze firms' pricing behavior using a full informative micro dataset that accounts for a large part of Italian firms. In our view, “the black boxes” to examine are the relations between price setting, market structure and spatial disparities. The paper aims to extend the empirical literature in several directions. A first goal of the research is to investigate the link between heterogeneity in price changes and spatial dependence. Besides, we compare the price dynamics among sectors, namely manufacturing vs. service. It is irrefutable that prices stickiness is linked to good market rigidities. Consequently, these issues have extremely important policy implications; for instance, the Monetary Authority considers the macro price indexes in order to determine the right policy to stabilize the economy and to improve social welfare. However, the Central Bank does not distinguish the likely aggregation bias source from the cross sector–region–country heterogeneities.