基于面板数据的代际收入流动研究

基于中国健康和营养调查中的农村数据,在面板数据条件下使用滞后水平变量作为工具变量分别对代际收入流动的单方程和系统方程进行估计,发现特定时期的单方程估计结果受工具变量的选取影响较大,而系统估计所得的代际收入弹性为0.446.这说明父辈收入与子辈收入之间存在较强相关性,代际收入流动性较弱,收入财富呈现出一定的代际继承性.因此,在减少收入分配差距的同时,政府应着重增加公共资源的供给,提供更多的职业培训,从而为农村子女发展创造更多的机会,以增加代际间的流动性.     

代际流动约束下生育率与收入不平等关系的国际检验

收入不平等问题和人口生育率过低问题是当下中国面临的两大难题,但目前理论界关于人口因素与收入不平等关系的研究,很少从生育率视角来考察以及考虑代际收入流动在其中的作用.文章从理论与经验两个方面来考察生育率对收入不平等的影响,理论模型表明:在关于代际收入流动的假设下,一个经济体中生育率的提高会使穷人比重提高,进而拉大收入不平等.进一步地,文章利用1970-2011年76个国家(地区)面板数据的经验研究发现:(1)总和生育率的提高会拉大收入不平等,如果每个妇女平均多生育一个孩子,将会使基尼系数增加0.025;(2)以出生率作为总和生育率替代指标的实证结果与基准结果基本一致,这说明不同生育率测算指标高度相关且可相互替代;(3)对于代际收入流动弹性越高、收入水平越低或生育率越高的国家(地区),其生育率提高对收入不平等的拉大作用越大.文章关于生育率对收入不平等影响的作用机制和异质性特征的考察,对于我国如何在实施"全面二孩"政策下寻求应对严峻的收入分配问题之策提供了国际经验和启示.     

国外代际收入流动性研究：综述与展望

机会公平问题一直都是收入分配领域研究的重点。大量的国外相关研究提出了一个非常重要的测度标准：代际收入流动,其大小在一定程度上能反映一个社会的机会平等状况。在我国贫富差距日益扩大的今天,对这个问题的研究是非常有意义的。     

人工智能技术会促进代际收入流动吗?——基于CFPS数据库的经验证据

前沿文献关注技术进步对劳动收入分配的影响,却普遍忽视人工智能技术对代际层面收入不平等的影响。基于此,利用2010—2016年间中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,构建父辈和子代收入百分位阶层测度代际收入流动性及流动方向,考察人工智能技术对代际收入不平等问题的作用。结果显示：人工智能技术促进代际收入流动性增强,并进一步促进代际收入向上流动,且对家庭教育程度中等、男性和非农户个体,以及市场化水平较高、知识产权保护程度中高、财政教育支出水平中高地区个体的代际收入向上流动具有更显著促进作用。此外,人工智能技术通过促进代际职业向上流动和劳动力迁移的途径作用于代际收入向上流动。因此,应加大对人工智能技术及相关产业发展的支持力度,通过推进市场化改革和教育公平、完善知识产权保护体系、加大财政教育支出水平等,充分释放人工智能技术促进代际收入向上流动的红利。     

收入流动性与我国居民长期收入不平等的动态变化:基于CHNS数据的分析

收入不平等是世界各国面临的共同难题.大多数文献在分析收入不平等时,通常是以年度截面收入为基础进行估算的,而如果考虑到收入流动性的存在,长期收入不平等程度将可能有所减小.文章的研究显示:根据CHNS提供的数据,通过居民收入5等分转换矩阵可以看出,由于收入流动性的存在,各收入层级长期收入所占份额较为接近,长期收入的基尼系数也大大低于年度平均值.文章还以Shorrocks平等化指数量化了收入流动性对长期收入不平等的影响,发现1989-2011年期间,收入流动性使以长期收入衡量的不平等程度降低了24.4％,但近年来,收入流动性出现了下降趋势,抑制了长期收入的平等化.由于收入流动性会影响到长期收入的不平等,因此建议通过深化改革公共政策和提高居民受教育程度来提高流动性,进而实现长期收入平等.     

代际流动、教育收益与机会平等——基于微观调查数据的研究

本文基于中国健康与养老追踪调查2011年全国基线调查数据,探讨了中国代际收入流动性及其作用机制。当前中国代际收入弹性在各年龄阶段人群中呈现U型曲线特点,90年代出生的居民面临的代际收入弹性较高,即代际流动性较低。运用阶层线性模型分析了代际间的交互作用机制:父代的收入水平和工作性质会通过影响子代个体特征变量的边际系数对子女的收入产生间接影响。教育是打破阶层固化的重要途径,但实证分析表明,父代的职业对子女的教育收益率存在显著影响,机会的不平等阻碍了代际流动。因此,政策改革应当保障教育机会和就业机会的平等,从而推动社会代际收入流动,促进收入分配结构合理化。     

高阶收入风险、收入流动与不平等

本文论证了高阶收入风险的存在及其异质性,并研究了高阶收入风险对收入流动和不平等的影响。本文研究发现优化收入冲击结构、消除高阶收入风险能够提高收入流动性、降低低收入群体收入停滞的风险,并且能够降低消费不平等和财富不平等。因此,政府一是需要保就业、降低劳动力市场摩擦,防范劳动者受到失业等极端收入冲击的影响,二是需要进一步完善职业培训体系、职业晋升体系,降低劳动者在工作阶梯下滑的风险。     

收入不平等问题最新研究热点分析

长期以来,收入不平等是研究热点,近五年来热度进一步上升,本文借助Web 0f Science的搜索功能考察近五年来这一领域研究的最新进展、热点与亮点,范围是SSCI索引论文。本文对收入不平等文献的发文量进行了分析,并说明了差商法有助于描述各类别收入不平等文献的增长速度。文章回顾了收入不平等研究领域的奠基性文献和收入分配分析的来龙去脉;介绍了近五年来收入分配理论研究中最突出的两个方向,其中之一是邦费罗尼曲线与指数;评介了有关我国收入不平等及相关问题的研究成果。此外,本文还介绍了收入不平等分析方法在其他不平等分析中的拓展与应用。     

通货膨胀与收入不平等——基于省域面板数据的研究

基于我国内地26个省份1995年—2010年的面板数据,采用HP滤波方法得到预期通货膨胀率和未预期到的通货膨胀率,通过构建计量模型,运用面板数据最小二乘法对通货膨胀率、预期通货膨胀率以及未预期到的通货膨胀率对收入不平等的影响作用进行估计。研究发现,通货膨胀率与预期通货膨胀率都显著的扩大收入不平等程度,其作用是稳健的;未预期到的通货膨胀率显著的缩小收入不平等程度,其作用是稳健的;预期通货膨胀率对收入不平等的影响是随时间波动的;未预期到的通货膨胀率对西部地区收入不平等的影响不显著,方向也不稳定。计量分析的结论与理论模型是较为一致的。     

A panel analysis of income inequality and energy use

This paper investigates the relationship between energy consumption and income inequality in an unbalanced panel of 144 countries over the period 1990–2018. Using fixed effect and instrumental variable panel methods and controlling for other determinants of inequality, I find a large and strong negative relationship between energy use and income inequality. The paper also demonstrates that results hold for models which divide the total sample into subsamples of economic blocs and regions. In addition, greater energy use reduces the income share of the top 10% and increases the share of the bottom 40%.     

Entrepreneurship and income inequality: a spatial panel data analysis

The main objective of this paper is to empirically analyze the relationship between entrepreneurship and income inequality. We use a spatial panel data analysis for both 33 high-income countries and 39 middle- and low-income countries over a period of 11 years. Estimation results and rigorous diagnostic analysis suggest that: (i) there is a strong support for the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between entrepreneurship and income inequality espoused by the Kuznets Curve hypothesis; (ii) the relationship between entrepreneurship and income inequality is negatively moderated by country’s level of economic development; (iii) regardless of income inequality levels, entrepreneurship has a non-linear relationship with income per capita; (iv) gross domestic expenditure on research and development exhibits significant negative impacts on entrepreneurship; (v) significant mixed effects on the likelihood of entrepreneurial activity are observed with governance, globalization, population growth rate, and competitiveness variables; (vi) there are significant mixed feedback effects on entrepreneurship; and (vii) there are statistically significant, positive as well as negative spatial spillovers to country-level entrepreneurial activity.     

A panel data model for subjective information on household income growth

Subjective expectations about future income changes are analyzed, using household panel data. The models used are extensions of existing binary choice panel data models to the case of ordered response. We consider static models with random and fixed individual effects. We also look at a dynamic random effects model which includes a measure for permanent and transitory income. We find that income change expectations strongly depend on realized income changes in the past: those whose income fell, are more pessimistic than others, while those whose income rose are more optimistic. Expected income changes are also significantly affected by employment status, family composition, permanent income, and past expectations. Expectations are then compared to the head of household’s ex post perception of the realized income change for the same period. The main finding is that rational expectations are rejected, and that in particular, households whose income has decreased in the past underestimate their future income growth.     

Regional income mobility in large cities throughout China

We investigated the regional income mobility in China for the year 1994–2016. Using the data collected from 185 prefecture-level cities, we find evidence that the regional income mobility was increasing over past two decades. By connecting income mobility with inequality index, we could draw a graph indicating an inverse U-shape relation between the two variables. We also provide the regional income mobility of the world for comparison.     

Distributive implications of member level income aggregation within the household: An approximation through mobility indices

This paper adapts the ethical index of income mobility first suggested by Chakravarty, Dutta and Weymark (1985) to assess the contribution of wives, husbands, and other adults' member level income to husband-wife households' income mobility according to two of the criteria discussed in the literature. For any partition of the population, a source's contribution is seen to be decomposable into within-group and between-group income mobility indices plus a term capturing sub-group differences in income shares. The approach is applied to a sample of husband-wife households where both spouses are present, extracted from the 1990–91 Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares , the Spanish household budget survey. While the husbands' income contribution is large and positive, the contribution of wives and other adults is practically equal to zero. When mean income differences are eliminated, all member contributions to husband-wife households' income mobility are substantially reduced.
JEL classification: D31, D33.     

Social Security Disability Insurance and intergenerational economic mobility

Economic opportunity in the United States is shaped by parental health and disability. We hypothesize that Disability Insurance (DI) may mitigate the observed pattern. Using linked survey and administrative data, we find children of work-limited parents have 4.1 percentiles less upward economic mobility and 4.3 percentiles more downward mobility relative to children of non-limited parents. Despite poorer health, children of parents initially awarded DI experience a negligible mobility gap relative to peers whose parents never apply to DI and 3.6 percentiles more upward mobility than peers of parents who are initially denied benefits—suggesting DI may moderate economic mobility.     

Rising top-income persistence in Australia: Evidence from income tax data

Using income tax administrative data for Australia, we examine levels and trends in the persistence in top-income group membership, focusing on the top 1 percent. Top-income persistence increased markedly between 1991 and 2018, with most of the increase occurring in the mid-2000s and early 2010s. In the mid- to late-2010s, Australian top-income persistence rates were near the top of the range of tax-data estimates for other countries. We decompose the increase into factors associated with (i) changes in the composition of the top-income group and (ii) increases in persistence rates for specific population subgroups. We find that the rise in top-income persistence is accounted for by changes in subgroup persistence rates, notably for individuals aged 35–64, and especially those aged 55–64. We suggest that these effects are partially related to increases in the effective retirement age over the relevant period.     

Religiosity and income: a panel cointegration and causality analysis

In this article, we examine the long-run relationship between religiosity and income using retrospective data on church attendance rates for a panel of countries from 1930 to 1990. We employ panel cointegration and causality techniques to control for omitted variable and endogeneity bias and test for the direction of causality. We show that there exists a negative long-run relationship between the level of religiosity, measured by church attendance, and the level of income, measured by the log of GDP per capita. The result is robust to alternative estimation methods, potential outliers, different samples, different measures of church attendance and alternative specifications of the income variable. Long-run causality runs in both directions, higher income leads to declining religiosity and declining religiosity leads to higher income.