浅谈中国-东盟自由贸易区经济效应

中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)于2010年1月1日正式运行,该自贸区将成为患及19亿人口,国民生产总值这6万亿美元,贸易额4.5万亿美元的自由贸易区,为世界第三大自由贸易区,也是发展中国家闻最大的自由贸易区.CAFTA的建立给中国-东盟带来一系列的经济效应.     

浅谈中国-东盟自由贸易区经济效应

中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)于2010年1月1日正式运行,该自贸区将成为惠及19亿人口,国民生产总值达6万亿美元,贸易额4.5万亿美元的自由贸易区,为世界第三大自由贸易区,也是发展中国家间最大的自由贸易区.CAFTA的建立给中国-东盟带来一系列的经济效应.     

Chances for a pacific free trade area

The establishment of the EEC was a major event of the 1960s. It has had a significant impact on international trade and investment and has wrought a profound change in the world balance of economic power. The emergence of the enlarged EEC and the implementation of a Pacific Free Trade Area (PAFTA) could have a more profound influence in shaping the world of the 1970s.     

Negotiating free trade

We develop a dynamic bargaining model in which a leading country endogenously decides whether to sequentially negotiate free trade agreements with subsets of countries or engage in simultaneous multilateral bargaining with all countries at once. We show how the structure of coalition externalities shapes the choice between sequential and multilateral bargaining, and we identify circumstances in which the grand coalition is the equilibrium outcome, leading to worldwide free trade. A model of international trade is then used to illustrate equilibrium outcomes and how they depend on the structure of trade and protection. Global free trade is not achieved when the political-economy motive for protection is sufficiently large. Furthermore, the model generates both “building bloc” and “stumbling bloc” effects of preferential trade agreements. In particular, we describe an equilibrium in which global free trade is attained only when preferential trade agreements are permitted to form (a building bloc effect), and an equilibrium in which global free trade is attained only when preferential trade agreements are forbidden (a stumbling bloc effect). The analysis identifies conditions under which each of these outcomes emerges.     

Overlapping free trade agreements and international trade: A network approach

In our work, we have analysed the effect of the hub‐and‐spoke nature of free trade agreements (FTA s) on trade. Contrary to previous analyses, we have considered the effects of the country's position in the FTA network on the bilateral trade of the hub country. We have conducted an in‐depth analysis of the global network of FTA s, focusing particularly on its evolution in the last 15 years. We have utilised a panel data set covering the period 1960–2010 to investigate the effects of the hub‐and‐spoke on trade. Our results show that the countries that are more connected to FTA s export more than those that are less involved, although not all the partner countries you can connect with are the same. An increase in the number of spokes that have no link between them has, on average, a negative effect on the trade of the hub, which indicates that signing FTA s with every country is not the optimal strategy for increasing trade. However, if we consider the way new FTA s change the relative position of a country, we can see that if new FTA s make the country more central or less constrained in the network, these new agreements have a strongly positive and significant pro‐trade effect.     

Brazil and Mexico—Partners in sowing a free trade area of the Americas

The second half of 2000 brought renewed interest to the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA). This hemispheric economic integration initiative presents numerous opportunities and challenges for each of the 34 countries involved in unifying markets across the Americas. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and Mercosur, the region's two largest trading blocs, play a vital role in any attempt to integrate Latin American markets. Integration under Mercosur has strengthened the position of member countries—especially Brazil, which is a choice location for foreign direct investment and has realized a significant growth in extra‐Mercosur trade. The newly elected Mexican president, Vicente Fox, has demonstrated a strong desire to bring Mexico to the forefront of hemispheric trade negotiations and brings a new dynamic to integration of Latin American markets and to the FTAA initiative. This article elaborates on the role of the two largest Latin American economies and the United States in the creation and solidification of a hemispheric trading bloc in the Americas. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?

For over 40 years, the gravity equation has been a workhorse for cross-country empirical analyses of international trade flows and — in particular — the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) on trade flows. However, the gravity equation is subject to the same econometric critique as earlier cross-industry studies of U.S. tariff and nontariff barriers and U.S. multilateral imports: trade policy is not an exogenous variable. We address econometrically the endogeneity of FTAs. Although instrumental-variable and control-function approaches do not adjust for endogeneity well, a panel approach does. Accounting econometrically for the FTA variable's endogeneity yields striking empirical results: the effect of FTAs on trade flows is quintupled. We find that, on average, an FTA approximately doubles two members' bilateral trade after 10 years.     

A strategic and welfare theoretic analysis of free trade areas

We construct a three-country model to determine how the formation of free trade areas (FTAs) affects optimal tariffs and welfare. We find that, at constant rest of the world (ROW) tariffs, the adoption of internal free trade induces union members to reduce their external tariffs below the Kemp-Wan [J. Int. Econom. 6 (1976) 95-97] level, and causes ROW's terms of trade to improve and its welfare to rise. When ROW also behaves optimally, its policy response to the formation of the FTA is to raise tariffs. Generally, FTA members prefer to liberalize internal trade partially and find regional integration appealing only if their collective size is sufficiently large. We also demonstrate how FTAs may undermine the attainment of global free trade.     

必然的构想——中国-东盟自由贸易区构想与难题

20世纪80年代后期以来,鉴于中国与东盟国家间的相互经济贸易往来日益加深,双方要求建立自由贸易区的呼声日趋高涨.正是在这种条件下,于2001年11月6日在文莱首都斯里巴加湾港召开的第五次东盟和中国领导人会议上,中国国务院总理朱镕基正式提出了组建中国-东盟自由贸易区的构想,并提出三点建议:第一,确定新世纪初的重点合作领域,即根据双方各自经贸优势,把农业、信息通讯、人力资源开发、相互投资和湄公河开发作为近期合作的重点领域;第二,推动建立中国-东盟自由贸易区,在今后10年内,正式建立中国-东盟自由贸易区;第三,加强政治上的相互信任和支持,在不断拓展双方经贸合作的同时,有必要进一步加强双方的政治对话与合作,增进相互了解与信任.     

Can compensation save free trade?

When the median voter loses from trade reform, liberalization is blocked. Allowing the electorate to vote for compensatory subsidies may reverse this outcome. However, the order of the agenda may matter. The winners who pay the compensation may be sufficiently powerful to block compensation if trade is first liberalized. Seeing the inevitable outcome of sequential votes, the median voter realizes he will not be compensated for his losses and opposes liberalization. In contrast, liberalization can be achieved if compensation is placed first on the agenda. Finally, there is a significant chance that the least efficient compensation scheme will be chosen.     

From NAFTA to hemisphere free trade

Limiting NAFTA to only the United States, Canada and Mexico will have immediate and adverse effects on the economies of the Caribbean Basin and Latin America. The diversion of investment and trade alone will result in the shrinking of these economies which have been growing steadily for the last few decades. Bernai discusses the advantages of expanding NAFTA to include these overlooked regions and constructs a transparent and fair process by which these countries of diverse economic development could obtain accession.     

On necessarily welfare-enhancing free trade areas

The well-known Kemp-Vanek-Ohyama-Wan proposition establishes that if two or more countries form a customs union (CU) by freezing their net external trade vector through a common external tariff and eliminating internal trade barriers, the union as a whole and the rest of the world cannot be worse off than before. Owing to the fact that a Free Trade Area (whose member countries impose country specific external tariff vectors) does not equalize marginal rates of substitution across its member countries (in contrast to a CU), the literature has been unable to provide a parallel demonstration regarding welfare improving Free Trade Areas (FTAs). The present paper eliminates this gap. In extending the result to the case with intermediate inputs, the paper also sheds new light on the rules of origin required to support such necessarily welfare enhancing FTAs. We show here that provided no trade deflection is permitted, all that is required by way of rules of origin is that the goods produced within the union - whether final or intermediate - be allowed to be traded freely. The proportion of domestic value added in final goods does not enter as a criterion in the rules of origin.     

Economic determinants of free trade agreements

The purpose of this study is to provide the first systematic empirical analysis of the economic determinants of the formation of free trade agreements (FTAs) and of the likelihood of FTAs between pairs of countries using a qualitative choice model. We develop this econometric model based upon a general equilibrium model of world trade with two factors of production, two monopolistically-competitive product markets, and explicit intercontinental and intracontinental transportation costs among multiple countries on multiple continents. The empirical model correctly predicts, based solely upon economic characteristics, 85% of the 286 FTAs existing in 1996 among 1431 pairs of countries and 97% of the remaining 1145 pairs with no FTAs.     

论中俄共建“大欧亚自贸区”的可行性

新时代中国以"一带一路"建设为重点的全面开放新格局和俄罗斯"向东看"的战略布局,为"一带一路"和"欧亚经济联盟"对接带来了新契机,"一带一盟"对接最佳方式是中俄合作共建"大欧亚自贸区"。随着中俄两国全面战略协作伙伴关系的推进,为自贸区构建奠定了良好基础,而"一带一路"又为中俄拓展和深化多边贸易搭建了平台,这符合两国的根本利益。但是"大欧亚自贸区"的建设也将面临着诸多挑战,这需要中俄携手打消联盟成员国、沿线国的疑虑,并面对当前纷繁复杂的国际政治经济环境,进行深入协商谈判。     

How free will US trade remain?

The final stage of the Kennedy Round tariff cuts in operation since the beginning of this year apparently has brought a minimum of obstacles to imports into the US. Nevertheless, even though rising US imports seem to prove the point of a far reaching trade liberallsation, leadership of the United States in this field has come to a grinding halt.     

The state of North American free trade

In 1989, a Free Trade Agreement was signed between the United States and Canada. This past June, at a meeting between the presidents of the United States and Mexico, agreement was reached to begin negotiations toward a similar agreement between their countries. Could this be the impetus for a trilateral agreement among the three countries and, perhaps, even creation of a North American Common Market?     

Liberalization strategies for free trade in services

Trade in services is being dealt with in GATT negotiations for the first time in the present Uruguay Round. The discussion on the proper liberalization instrument to be applied to trade in services is highly controversial. This paper attempts to clarify the discussion and outline rational policy options.