ON THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF IMMIGRATION AND INCOME REDISTRIBUTION*

In this article, we analyze an economy in which agents vote over immigration policy and redistributive tax policy. We show that natives' preferences over immigration are influenced by the prospect that immigrants will be voting over future tax policy. We also show that changes in the degree of international capital mobility, the distribution of initial capital among natives, the wealth or poverty of the immigrant pool, and the future voting rights and entitlements of immigrants can have dramatic effects on equilibrium immigration and tax policies. Finally, we provide some empirical support for the model's predictions.     

欧元:从现在看未来

欧元自诞生以来取得了初步成功,包括促进了欧元区经济一体化的发展,取得了仅次于美元的第二大国际货币的地位。但是,欧元还面临着许多挑战,尤其是欧盟的政治一体化的滞后。今后一段时期欧元还会健康成长。     

ON THE OUTPUT EFFECTS OF BARRIERS TO TRADE*

We study the macroeconomic effects of international trade policy by integrating a Hecksher–Ohlin trade model into an optimal‐growth framework. The model predicts that a more open economy will have higher factor productivity. Furthermore, there is a “selective development trap” to which countries may or may not converge, depending on policy. Income at the development trap falls as trade barriers increase. Hence, cross‐country differences in barriers to trade may help explain the dispersion of per capita income observed across countries. The effects are quantified, and we show that protectionism can explain a relevant fraction of TFP and long‐run income differentials across countries.     

3F冲击对中国通货膨胀的影响研究

本文选取全球通货膨胀率、国际能源价格、国际食品价格作为3F外部冲击的三个影响因素,应用扩展的菲利普斯曲线实证分析1981年至2011年的外部冲击因素与我国通胀率的长期关系,然后使用VAR模型对这些外部因素所产生的冲击效果做进一步探究。实证结果表明：短期内,全球通货膨胀率是导致国内价格水平上升的主要原因;随着时间的推移,国际能源价格与国际食品价格对于国内价格水平的影响力逐渐增强,且在中长期成为较为重要的影响因素。而通胀预期与产出缺口则是中长期影响物价的最主要因素。因此,为了抵御外部冲击对我国通货膨胀的影响,管理我国对于本国及全球通胀的预期、构建相应的价格缓冲机制、实施农产品进口渠道多元化战略等均是较为有效的手段。与此同时,也要防止经济过快增长,抑制由于投资需求带来的通货膨胀。     

POSSIBILITIES AND PROBLEMS OF RECONCILIATION OF THE SNA AND THE MPS

This paper reviews the underlying concepts and definitions of SNA and MPS in order to identify those areas where the differences in the content or classifications of the corresponding aggregates of these systems of national accounting can be eliminated or reduced in the course of the present or the future work on the revision of both SNA and MPS. This will bring the systems nearer to each other and improve international comparability of national income data. In cases where such a reconciliation is not feasible, the introduction of certain modifications or clarifications in the selected sections of SNA and/or MPS will be a useful step.
Pursuing this objective, the paper introduces the following classification of the intersystem differences:
—differences in the fundamental concepts and definitions;
—differences caused by the peculiarities in the
—institutional set up;
—so called "incidental" differences.
On examining the above classification the paper comes to the conclusion that each group requires its own approach. The second conclusion is that possibilities for reducing intersystem differences are more promising in the case of the third group.
The paper uses the simplified MPS matrix in order to demonstrate the usefulness of certain modifications in the MPS classifications. These modifications do not imply any deviations from the fundamental concepts and yet they could facilitate international comparability.
The paper also discusses certain modifications (or clarifications) concerning some aggregates which could be useful in the context of international comparisons.     

SELECTED PROBLEMS OF INTER-COUNTRY COMPARISONS ON THE BASIS OF THE EXPERIENCE OF THE EEC

The formidable expansion in the scope of the United Nations International Comparison Project has brought into evidence limitations of the methodology used in the first three phases. The author considers that there are two indispensable conditions needed to give renewed impetus to the ICP: (a) the objectives must be redefined, and (b) the methodology must be built on an entirely new basis. He considers the broad lines of such an evolution to be the following. (a) The objective of volume comparison must be kept distinct from that of purchasing power comparison, given that both the basic material and the formulae to be used at the aggregate level differ in the two cases. (b) At the basic heading level, it is proposed, for both volume and purchasing power comparisons, to replace the multilateral approach by a “minimum scale” binary and unilateral approach, and to use the EKS method. This will make possible an improvement in the accuracy of the estimates, a reduction in the overall costs, and a drastic reduction in execution time. What is more, it would be possible to regionalize the worldwide comparison, in the sense that the results of the basic heading comparisons already obtained at the regional level for regional purposes can be used as an input in the framework of the worldwide comparison. At the aggregate level, in the framework of volume comparison, it is proposed that a constant price procedure in the spatial sense should continue to be used. It is, however, proposed that the prices of the set of countries (GK) be replaced by a structure of common “equi-distant” prices (G). This would permit the elimination of the significant systematic distortions observed in the comparison between rich and poor countries in the first three phases of ICP. What is more, this gives maximum stability to results obtained for the same countries at different geographical levels. By using a set of common “equi-distant” quantities, the same advantage can be obtained in the purchasing power comparison.     

人口老龄化对中国城镇住房需求的影响

本文基于历史经验和国际经验设计了中国城镇住房需求的估算方案,发现中短期内人口老龄化不会导致中国城镇住房大量过剩。城镇化和家庭规模小型化将在未来20年~30年助推中国城镇住房需求持续增加,这将使得人口老龄化对城镇住房需求的负面冲击直到2045年以后才能逐渐显现出来。通过降低住房持有不平等程度来解决中国城镇住房供需不匹配问题,可能比单纯增加住房供给更有效。     

环境与发展的全球合作进展

环境与发展的全球合作经历了一个逐渐发展而又举步维艰的过程。一方面,随着一系列有关国际性会议的举行和各种国际协议和签订,在共同对付全球环境问题上取得了一些重要成就;另一方面,由于环境问题及其相应机制的复杂性,国家与地区之间的差异性,国内诸多利益的冲突性以及全球政治经济秩序的不合理性,全球合作中的许多实际问题并没有得到真正解决,由里约会议引发的最初的合作趋势正在减弱。因此,世界需要一种新的达到空间程度的全球合作与协调。目前一种新的全球合作趋势已初见端倪,包括综合的政策手段,新型的南北关系,有效的环境机构和广泛的公众参与。作为一个重要的国际环境协议签署国和发展中大国,中国必须审时度势地制定出相应对策。     

PROCEDURES FOR UPDATING THE RESULTS OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

This article reviews the problems involved in updating the results of international comparisons, in terms of an analytic framework focusing upon the sources of differences between various forms of extrapolation and direct comparisons. The factors identified as important are conservation of prices of the base period and weight inconsistency. The reliability of updating is undoubtedly affected by the length of the period over which the data are extrapolated. A program of regular benchmark comparisons at approximately five-year intervals with updating for the intervening years is attractive, since it permits checking by forward and backward interpolation. Where there are large deviations, however, averaging is not an acceptable solution.     

THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL OUTSOURCING ON LABOUR MARKET DYNAMICS IN GERMANY

Using an administrative data set containing daily information on individual workers' employment histories, we investigate how workers' labour market transitions are affected by international outsourcing. In order to do so, we estimate hazard rate models for match separations, as well as for worker flows from employment to another job, to unemployment, and to nonparticipation. Outsourcing has a positive but small impact on overall job stability in the manufacturing sector, and considerably increases job stability in the service sector. However, the effect of outsourcing varies strongly across skill levels and age groups, with negative effects for some workers. This is especially the case in the manufacturing sector, where the hazard of transiting to nonemployment rises with international outsourcing for medium‐skilled and older workers.     

A NOTE ON THE CONCEPT OF SERVICES

Not one of the many service definitions proposed by various authors and applied in practice enjoy general acceptance. Is it feasible to reach an international agreement on the definition of services? The answer is probably yes; however, is it worthwhile to spend considerable resources to reach such an agreement. Does an overall services aggregate indeed provide important analytical uses? Many doubts are expressed in this respect. Authors of recent international work on the statistics of services tend to accept a more flexible attitude: instead of having one single definition on services, several service concepts could be applied depending on feasibilities and other circumstances of the various statistics. However, all service definitions should be based on the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) and on the Central Product Classification (CPC), recently approved by the Statistical Commission of the United Nations.     

INTERNATIONAL AVERAGE PRICES AND COMPARISONS OF NATIONAL AGGREGATE PRODUCTION OF AGRICULTURE

"The whole question of making inter-spatial comparisons between countries is a most complicated and hazardous business" (Mr. Campion); international comparisons of a particular value aggregate between countries present a difficult problem connected with the conversion of national value aggregates into a comparable magnitude. This paper presents an alternative approach in that an internationally comparable value aggregate for each country is prepared by the international average prices of commodities which are determined simultaneously with the partial exchange rates of national currencies to a standard currency. The calculated partial exchange rates are so defined as to reflect the purchasing power of national currencies in respect of the group of commodities selected. Consequently, the resulting value aggregate for international comparison has a quantity dimension, eliminating the effect due to the different purchasing power of national currencies in which original prices are quoted. The other methods of international comparison so far being used by other research workers, such as C. Clerk and M. Gilbert and his associates, are examined in the light of the properties of the present method and the crucial differences are delineated. Using the method proposed, an international comparison is made of the aggregate value of agricultural products for 11 selected countries in the world, with sub-divisions into two regions.     

ON THE INTERPRETATION AND APPLICABILITY OF A "GREEN NATIONAL PRODUCT"

Several economists have recently suggested that the national product should be adjusted for the value of environmental damages. In this paper we look at some of the difficulties one encounters when the correcting formulae derived from simple theoretical models are transferred to applied national accounting. In particular, the paper is concerned with the question of whether a corrected national income measure will actually provide relevant information for policy-makers.
It is shown that a "green national product" will be very difficult to interpret. In general, it may not give any indications of the necessity of imposing stronger environmental policy actions. Nor does it indicate the hypothetical state of the economy after a change in environmental efforts.     

人民币国际化与国际货币体系改革

从美国债务上限调整的议案及美国信贷主权评级的下调,可见现行由美元和欧元所组成的二元国际货币体系并不稳定。为测度出人民币的引入能否增加国际货币体系的稳定性,本文先建立面板回归模型分析影响一国货币国际化的基础条件因素,并在模型的基础上,测度出人民币在可自由兑换后将成为一个能与欧元相互抗衡的国际货币。通过方差比较,本文论证了由美元、欧元和人民币三种货币所组成的外汇储备组合较二元体系下的稳定,说明人民币国际化有助于改革现行的二元体系,使国际货币体系发展成为更稳定的三元体系,从而促进全球经济的健康发展。     

非洲边缘化与依附性试析

全球化过程中,非洲面临的挑战大于机遇。而最大的挑战源自边缘化与依附性并存。文章应用国际组织提出的报告对此做出统计分析。旨在用比较可靠的数据,参与非洲与全球化的学术讨论。同世界其他地区的横向比较表明,非洲正处于世界经济体系的最边缘。非洲自身的纵向比较显示,它在世界经济体系中的地位继续弱化。非洲的依附性表现在多个方面。商品进出口结构与贸易伙伴的空间分布,显示对发达国家的依附性。外资流入以官方援助为主,对发达国家提供的援助存在依附性。沉重的债务负担也加剧了依附性。     

秉持“两型社会”理念传播城市形象——以长株潭城市群为例

近年来,随着中国经济的快速发展及其国际地位的不断提高,我国地方政府已经有了越来越强的城市形象意识,各种形式的对外传播活动也相继展开。但是,对中国城市而言,城市形象传播毕竟是一个全新的实践领域,许多规律性的东西我们还没有把握好,一些观念与思路也没有调整到位,这在很大程度上影响着我国城市形象塑造与传播的效果。为此,我们借助地理传播学以长株潭城市群作为样本,利用网络数据库建立组合矩阵模型进行量化分析认为,长株潭秉持"两型社会"理念传播城市形象的成功做法和经验颇值得借鉴。     

数量地理方法对地理学发展的影响

简要介绍了数量地理方法的发展背景、过程和发展的推动力,从正反两面阐述了其对地理学发展的影响:数量方法对地理学的生存发展无疑起到了重要的作用,然而由于对这些工具的过分依赖,而忽视了自身的发展问题。得出结论:只要把握好地理学自身的发展方向,数量地理方法的正确应用在向社会展示地理学价值的同时,也将会解决目前地理学自身发展中的一系列问题,进而推动其理论化、科学化。     

国际产业转移与危机冲击的关系研究

通过纵向比较分析认为:二战后的前三次全球性产业大转移,与之相对应的分别是50年代的冷战、60年代的美元危机、70年代的石油危机,最近的一次产业转移亦有亚洲金融危机的影子。因此,国际产业转移的根本动因是世界生产力的发展和国际分工的深化,但危机作为一个外部性因素,始终伴随全球性产业转移的全过程。由美国次贷危机所引发的新一轮国际金融危机和世界经济波动,亦可能带动新一轮产业转移。有鉴于此,我国需要做好承接新一轮国际产业转移的准备工作。     

ON THE EQUIVALENCE OF WEIGHTED COUNTRY-PRODUCT-DUMMY (CPD) METHOD AND THE RAO-SYSTEM FOR MULTILATERAL PRICE COMPARISONS

The country-product-dummy (CPD) method, originally proposed in Summers (1973), has recently been revisited in its weighted formulation to handle a variety of data related situations (Rao and Timmer, 2000, 2003; Heravi et al. , 2001; Rao, 2001; Aten and Menezes, 2002; Heston and Aten, 2002; Deaton et al. , 2004). The CPD method is also increasingly being used in the context of hedonic modelling instead of its original purpose of filling holes in Summers (1973). However, the CPD method is seen, among practitioners, as a black box due to its regression formulation. The main objective of the paper is to establish equivalence of purchasing power parities and international prices derived from the application of the weighted-CPD method with those arising out of the Rao-system for multilateral comparisons. A major implication of this result is that the weighted-CPD method would then be a natural method of aggregation at all levels of aggregation within the context of international comparisons.     

关于重庆市开拓韩国旅游客源市场的思考

近年来，韩国来华旅游者在我国外国人旅游客源中一直位居前列，成为我国重要的国际旅游客源市场。作为拥有与韩国密切相关的旅游资源的重庆直辖市，韩国旅游者在其接持的全部外国人旅游客源中所占份额却一直很低，如何有效地开拓韩国旅游客源市场，成为当前重庆市旅游发 展一个不容忽视的问题。本文对此作了初步的探讨。