新兴市场国家的制造业之路

2000年以后,全球制造业的格局发生了巨大变化,新兴市场国家逐渐兴起,并取得了巨大的成就。展望未来,新兴市场仍可继续扩大制造业市场份额,但前进的步伐会相对减慢。对部分新兴市场经济体而言,如何通过改革跨越制造业发展的瓶颈期,是具有重要意义的问题。     

全球化背景下的新兴市场投资

在过去20年里,新兴市场从规模小且流动性差的封闭股票市场发展成为超过全球平均收益水平的投资场所,在全球投资组合中的份额逐渐增加,已成为多元化投资组合中的基本组成部分。受市场容量和供给限制等不利因素的影响,目前新兴市场的发展势头有所减速,但它仍然是一个为投资者提供多元化和长期超额收益的重要市场。     

新兴市场的市场预期与资本流动研究

市场预期一直被认为是影响资本流动的重要原因,在全球金融危机的大背景下,新兴市场成为大家关注的焦点,因此,文章旨在研究新兴市场在市场预期的影响下,资本流动所呈现出的基本特征。     

新兴市场的市场预期与资本流动研究

市场预期一直被认为是影响资本流动的重要原因,在全球金融危机的大背景下,新兴市场成为大家关注的焦点,因此,文章旨在研究新兴市场在市场预期的影响下,资本流动所呈现出的基本特征。     

2020年新兴市场展望

“新兴市场”这个概念最早在1981年被创造出,它关系到十个国家。当时这些国家的人均GDP还不到3000美元,但是现在韩国人均GDP已达到1.4万美元。人们认知是,倘若是只投资这十个新兴市场国家当中的一个,这样太过于风险,所以,就需要投资十个新兴市场国家,从而分散风险。之前,新兴市场投资具有不确定性,但正是其不确定性才助其飞速发展。     

渣打银行的新兴市场发展路径

本文首先考察了渣打银行在近几十年中区域发展和业务发展战略的延续及转型。分析认为,作为一家英国银行,渣打银行自成立之初便以亚洲、非洲作为业务开展的主要市场,并在100多年间延续下来,业务范围也一直坚持以商业银行业务为主。其次,考察了渣打银行在非洲、亚洲等新兴市场的盈利模式,着力回答以下几个方面的问题:在新兴市场中从事什么业务、遇到哪些困难、如何实现有效成长等等;并在以上分析的基础上,本文提炼出了渣打银行在新兴市场成功发展的几点经验,以供我国商业银行借鉴。     

新兴市场选股方法和思路

二十年来,我国证券市场快速发展,上市公司从几家发展到2000多家,证券市场的快速发展为我国国民经济的发展和经济体制的改革筹集了大量资金,它极大地改变了人们的投资理念,从投机逐步转变为投资,从短期投资逐步转变为长期投资。相当多的稳健的投资者对基金情有独钟,大量投资于各种基金。在我国的证券市场中,机构与散户的博弈,机构与机构的博弈,展现得淋漓尽致。投资者对证券投资风险和收益的认识已经较为深刻。为了让处于相对弱势群体的大部分中小投资者减少亏损、甚至严重亏损的现状,笔者通过股票投资的理论研究和实践,提出了新兴市场三阶梯选股方法和思路,供投资大师们斧正,也为广大中小投资者提供一种选股的方法。     

Market Segmentation Effects in Corporate Credit Rating Changes: The Case of Emerging Markets

We examine stock market reactions to corporate credit rating changes in 26 emerging market countries included in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Market Index. We hypothesize and test the notion that emerging market firms in the American Depository Receipts (ADRs) markets are more likely to purchase ratings from the Big Two (Moody’s and S&P), and that they react more strongly to the announcements of corporate rating changes by Moody’s or S&P than to those of raters in local markets. We compare the effect of credit rating changes of the Big Two in two emerging stock markets: local markets (local currencies) and ADR markets (U.S. dollars). We find significant price reactions in the ADR markets, and insignificant reactions in local markets, and conclude that there is capital market segmentation in ADR markets for credit rating changes of emerging market firms. We find evidence that investors react more strongly in the ADR markets than local markets because they require higher costs of capital for firms cross-listed both in the ADR markets and local markets due to greater expected bankruptcy costs and foreign exchange risks of those firms. We also report that stock markets react significantly, not only to rating downgrades, but also to upgrades in the ADR markets.

Pension Funds and Emerging Markets

This paper focuses on the investment behavior of pension funds in developed and emerging market countries. First, it analyzes the main determinants of the emerging market asset allocation of pension funds in developed countries. Second, it assesses how pension funds in emerging markets have contributed to the development of local securities markets. Third, it analyzes the determinants of pension funds' investment performance. The paper concludes with a discussion of why the emerging market asset allocation of pension funds in developed countries is likely to increase and what the challenges faced by pension funds in emerging markets are.     

Downside Risk in Emerging Markets

This paper investigates the relation between downside risk and expected returns on the aggregate stock market in an international context. Nonparametric and parametric value at risk are used as measures of downside risk to determine the existence of a risk-return trade-off. For emerging markets, fixed effects panel data regressions provide evidence for a significantly positive relationship between monthly expected market returns and downside risk. This result is robust after controlling for aggregate dividend yield and price-to-fundamental ratios. The relationship between expected returns and downside risk is weaker for developed markets and vanishes when control variables are included in the specification.     

Privatization and Fiscal Deficits in European Emerging Markets

Privatization and fiscal deficits have been linked theoretically as emerging market countries completed transitions from command to market-based economies. This study examines the joint relationships among relative fiscal deficits, privatization, and exogenous factors for twenty-five Central and Eastern European emerging market countries. Pooled regression models suggest that increased privatization does not reduce fiscal deficits, but fiscal deficits increase as privatization increases over time. These effects are dependent upon the set of countries considered and the privatization measure employed. There is limited support for the hypothesis that privatization is increased when fiscal deficits decline for the nine early privatizers.     

金融危机持续蔓延，亚洲新兴市场未能幸免

美国金融危机造成了全球市场的动荡,亚洲新兴市场国家也受到不同程度的影响。尽管亚洲国家在此次危机中的直接损失有限。但其金融市场也遭受了诸如股市暴跌、汇率下滑等波动。油价回落、出口疲软和资金抽逃将使亚洲国家面临压力,未来经济前景面临不确定性。部分国家如韩国、印度和印尼,尤其是韩国出现危机的可能性较大。     

The Impact of the U.S. and the Japanese Equity Markets on the Emerging Asia-Pacific Equity Markets

Using a tri-variate vector autoregression model, we study the relationships between the four Asian emerging equity markets: Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, and the two largest equity markets in the world: U.S. and Japan. We find that while most of the unexpected variations in stock returns in these Asian emerging markets is explained by domestic own shocks, the impacts from the U.S. and Japan are larger in Hong Kong and Singapore than in Korea and Taiwan. This foreign effect is pronounced after the Crash of the October 1987, especially in Singapore. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Financial Integration of Large- and Small-Cap Stocks in Emerging Markets

This study examines the financial integration of large- and small-cap stocks in twenty-three emerging markets to determine their degree of market integration with the world market. The international asset pricing model cannot be rejected for most large-cap stock portfolios, but it is rejected for small-cap stock portfolios. The findings also demonstrate that super-large-cap stocks have the fewest pricing errors and their global financial integration has increased in recent years. In sum, the empirical results indicate that global market integration is primarily associated with the super-large-cap stocks of large emerging markets.     

Valuation Model of Defaultable Bond Values in Emerging Markets

This paper develops a model to value defaultable bonds in emerging markets. Default occurs when some signaling process hits a pre-defined default barrier. The signaling variable is considered to be some macro-economic variables such as foreign exchange rates. The dynamics of the default barrier depend on the volatility and the drift of the signaling variable. We derive a closed-form solution of the defaultable bond price from the model as a function of a signaling variable and a short-term interest rate. The numerical results show that the model values generated by using foreign exchange rates as the signaling variables can broadly track the market credit spreads of defaultable bonds in South Korea and Brazil. Given an expected level of the foreign exchange rate, defaultable bond values under a stressed market situation can be obtained.     

新兴市场金融脆弱性:基于国际资本易变性的分析

随着国际资本流动规模的日益庞大,其易变性的破坏力也越来越大,而且在新兴市场国家表现得尤为强烈,这加剧了新兴市场国家金融脆弱性。国际资本易变性从冲击货币稳定、影响国际收支的可维持性以及国际游资对金融市场的高度投机三个方面加剧了新兴市场金融脆弱性。它在新兴市场表现尤为强烈的原因在于新兴市场的不稳定性和不成熟性。