本轮通货膨胀中的货币因素——基于月度数据的检验

本文以中国2008年10月至2010年11月的月度数据为基础,通过计量分析发现广义货币供给量与通货膨胀之间存在显著的相关关系。在滞后1期和2期的情况下,广义货币供给是通货膨胀的Granger原因,而通货膨胀不是广义货币供给的Granger原因;滞后3期后,二者互为因果关系。回归分析发现,通货膨胀与广义货币供给呈显著的正相关关系,但是,广义货币供给仅能解释通货膨胀22.93%的变化。     

谨防进出口贸易引发通货膨胀

通货膨胀与进出口贸易是不同的经济范畴,但两者又有紧密联系。关于通货膨胀的成因,有各种不同的解释,因而形成了各派通货膨胀理论。现代通货膨胀理论主要有需求拉上说、成本推进说、需求拉上成本推进说、需求移动说和菲利普斯曲线说等。我们从货币供给途径、国外商     

为觅珍珠探深海——读倪克湖近作《货币供求 经济增长 通货膨胀——理论与实证》

随着本世纪末全球经济一体化、金融全球化步伐的加快，金融领域也出现了许多新的现象，如货币供给中内生货币与外生货币形成交互影响，货币供给与通货膨胀关系日渐疏远，通货膨胀与经济增长之间出现多值对应，用贸易占比法测定开放度局限性越来越明显，中央银行对货币进而对通货膨胀的控制力下降，等等。这些问题的出现，对传统经济、金融理论提出了严峻的挑战，也成了当代经济金融理论工作者面临的新课题。倪克湖同志新近出版的专著：《货币供求　经济增长　通货膨胀———理论与实证》，在比较、分析、批判、吸收前人研究成果的基础上，将…     

通货膨胀或将成为中国经济发展过程中的常态

传统理论认为,通货膨胀和通货紧缩具有周期性,本文对这种传统的通货膨胀周期性理论提出质疑.文章首先对通胀起因的理论进行简单回顾,了解到货币供应量过多是导致通胀的主要原因,然后结合世界各国及中国当前的经济状况进行分析,得出世界各国普遍存在货币供给量过多的现象,这将为世界经济埋下长期通货膨胀的隐患,最后得出结论通货膨胀或成为经济发展过程中的常态这一结论.     

中国离通货膨胀有多远？

“无论何时何地,通货膨胀都是一种货币现象。”这是货币学派经济学家弗里德曼的一句名言,其含义十分清楚,即货币供给超过货币需求一定会导致通货膨胀。将该理论应用于判断中国未来一段时期的物价走势,就不免产生对通胀的担忧,因为自2008年11月份实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策以来,无论货币还是信贷都出现了空前的增长。     

通货膨胀离我们到底有多远

“无论何时何地,通货膨胀都是一种货币现象”这是货币学派经济学家弗里德曼的一句名言,其含义十分清楚,即货币供给超过货币需求一定会导致通货膨胀。将该理论应用于判断我国未来一段时期的物价走势,就不免产生对通胀的担忧,因为自2008年11月份实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策以来,尤论货币还是信贷都出现了空前的增长。     

发挥稳定货币政策对经济的微调作用

通货膨胀的成因很多，不一定都是货币供给过多引起的。但不管原因如何。通货膨胀最终还是体现为流通货币的增加和价格的上涨。用货币学派的一句话说“通货膨胀无论如何都是一种货币现象”。     

中国离通货膨胀有多远？

【英国《金融时报》11月20日】“无论何时何地,通货膨胀都是一种货币现象。”这是货币学派经济学家弗里德曼的一句名言,其含义十分清楚,即货币供给超过货币需求一定会导致通货膨胀。将该理论应用于判断我国未来一段时期的物价走势,就不免产生对通胀的担忧,因为自2008年11月份实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策以来,无论货币还是信贷都出现了空前的增长。     

货币供给、基础货币结构对我国通货膨胀的影响

本文首先从我国不同时期货币供给结构、基础货币结构和货币乘数的变化入手,分析货币因素对我国通货膨胀的影响;其次,采用VAR模型和脉冲响应进一步验证不同时期货币供给因素对通货膨胀的影响。研究结果表明,金融危机前,M1、M2对我国通货膨胀的影响具有显著的影响,而金融危机之后,两者对其影响明显减弱。     

货币供给量与通货膨胀之间关系的实证分析

一、引言 2008年爆发国际金融危机以来,各国政府为抵御金融危机的不利影响,纷纷实行了量化宽松的货币政策,从而导致通货膨胀开始显现,应对通货膨胀成为各国政府的主要任务之一.货币供给量与通货膨胀之间的关系历来都是经济学家研究的热点问题之一.货币学派的代表人物弗里德曼认为通货膨胀是经济运行中价格总水平大幅度持续上升的货币现象,并指出货币在长期是中性的,其扩张率将全部转化为通货膨胀率,也就是说货币供给增加是通货膨胀波动的主要根源.那么,我国的情况如何呢?货币供给量是否直接导致了通货膨胀?本文通过实证方法对这一问题进行分析.     

我国货币政策的导向

货币政策是一国最重要的宏观调控手段之一。为了应对国际金融危机,近两年来我国采取了一揽子经济刺激计划,实施了积极的财政政策和货币政策。但随着大量信贷资金投入到经济建设中,通胀预期日趋明显。适时调整货币政策,保持国民经济平稳运行,是我国当前实施合理货币政策调控经济运行的明智手段。     

Optimal Currency Area: A twentieth Century Idea for the twenty-first Century?

We take stock of the history of the European Monetary Union and pegged exchange-rate regimes in recent decades. The post-Bretton Woods greater financial integration and under-regulated financial intermediation have increased the cost of sustaining a currency area and other forms of fixed exchange-rate regimes. Financial crises illustrated that fast-moving asymmetric financial shocks interacting with real distortions pose a grave threat to the stability of currency areas and fixed exchange-rate regimes. Members of a currency union with closer financial links may accumulate asymmetric balance-sheet exposure over time, becoming more susceptible to sudden-stop crises. In a phase of deepening financial ties, countries may end up with more correlated business cycles. Down the road, debtor countries that rely on financial inflows to fund structural imbalances may be exposed to devastating sudden-stop crises, subsequently reducing the correlation of business cycles between currency area’s members, possibly ceasing the gains from membership in a currency union. A currency union of developing countries anchored to a leading global currency stabilizes inflation at a cost of inhibiting the use of monetary policy to deal with real and financial shocks. Currency unions with low financial depth and low financial integration of its members may be more stable at a cost of inhibiting the growth of sectors depending on bank funding.     

Inflation-targeting under a Managed Exchange Rate: the Case of the Chinese Central Bank

In 2004, the People's Bank of China (PBC) is reported to have abandoned the quantity of money as its intermediate goal and to adopt some elements of the apparatus of inflation targeting, without giving up the managed exchange rate regime for the renminbi (RMB), the Chinese currency. We show in this paper, using a dynamic setting, that partially implementing the apparatus of inflation targeting by the PBC to improve the performance of monetary policy encounters various difficulties from out-of-equilibrium dynamics to macro-economic and financial instability. In this context, some macro-economic measures can be helpful for reducing disequilibrium. Further development of internal monetary and financial markets and assigning balanced weights by the PBC to inflation and output targets are necessary conditions for the regime to be stable.     

Strong Currency and Weak Currency

This paper presents a two-country model in which two currencies compete with each other. There exists an equilibrium in which the two currencies with different rates of inflation circulate as media of exchange despite neither currency being required to be used for transactions. Taxes payable in local currency and asymmetric injection of fiat money by the government through purchases of a certain good generate demands even for the currency with a higher inflation rate. In such an equilibrium, the government that issues the currency with a lower rate of inflation collects seigniorage not only from its own residents but from the residents of the other country provided that the rate of inflation is positive. The strong currency in the sense of a low inflation rate becomes an international medium of exchange. Policy games, in which the two governments simultaneously choose and commit to tax rates and inflation rates, are also examined. We show, among other things, that the equilibrium rate of inflation is zero in this policy game. In other words, unlike a common argument, the rate of inflation does not go below zero. This result is due to the fact that a negative rate of inflation induces a negative amount of seigniorage andvice versa. Some alternative currency regimes are examined. Even for a country with a weak currency, abandonment of its currency leads to a lower level of welfare. Monetary unions are briefly discussed as well.J. Japan. Int. Econ., Dec. 199812(4), pp. 305–333. University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.     

The situation in currency markets in the CIS countries in 2009

The situation with currency markets in the CIS countries in 2009 was characterized by considerable fluctuations in national currencies against the background of the major problems in the financial sector, economic recession in most countries, slowing inflation in the consumer market, and deflation in prices of manufactured goods.     

Currency transactions and Customs flows in the foreign economic relations of a region (Based on the example of Rostov oblast)

The paper considers currency and financial transactions in Rostov oblast in the peroid 2000–2010. The change in the composition of bank sector operators is analyzed. Methods are suggested for analyzing the interrelation between currency and Customs operations and commodity flows that allows one to reveal the role of a separate region within the Russian Federation as a transit territory for exported and imported goods in foreign trade supplies of other regions.     

The Currency Ratio in Tanzania: An Econometric Analysis

Abstract: This study tested some key hypotheses on the determinants of the currency ratio in Tanzania. The econometric results suggest that real income is, as theorized, negatively related to and a significant determinant of the currency ratio in Tanzania. The estimated income elasticity coefficient, found to be far less than unity, suggests there is poor substitution between currency and demand deposits in Tanzania. The results also showed that expected inflation was negatively related to the currency ratio in Tanzania. While the structural adjustment programme was found to increase and shift upward the currency ratio function in Tanzania, the liberalization of the financial sector was found to shift decrease and shift downward the currency ratio function. Most institutional variables were found to lack the expected sign and significance in explaining the currency ratio in Tanzania, probably because of inadequacy of the proxies used.     

通货膨胀与人民币升值并存问题研究

据"购买力平价理论",开放经济条件下,高通货膨胀率引起通货对外贬值,而我国目前的经济表现是高通货膨胀率环境下人民币汇率对外升值态势更加强劲,这一经济现象与传统的经济学原理相违背,给国民经济健康发展造成极大危害。本文分析了通货膨胀与人民币升值并存的原因,提出了相应的政府调控政策建议。     

COPING WITH INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATE SHOCKS IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY

Over the past ten years South Africa has moved to an increasingly open economy, characterised by a (relatively) low inflation and large and unpredictable movements in the prices of financial assets. One of these asset prices is the value of the South African currency. This volatility in the exchange rate has a direct impact on inflation. Using the interest rate as operational target, a central bank might ignore or underestimate the exchange rate transmission mechanism through which the economy is influenced. This paper proposes a Monetary Conditions Index for South Africa that can be used as a policy rule or simply as an important information variable in conducting monetary policy under an inflation‐targeting regime with a volatile exchange rate.     

Is there a “triffin dilemma” for the EMS?

The question explored in this paper is whether the EMS can continue to perform efficiently and ensure low inflation in an economically and financially integrated area with a high degree of currency substitution. A dilemma may arise: on the one hand, currency substitution should be accommodated to provide market participants with the currency they desire; on the other, currency substitution should not determine an excess of liquidity in the system leading to inflation. These objectives might be difficult to reconcile in a system with decentralized asymmetric monetary policy cooperation such as the EMS and might have adverse consequences for the monetary stability of the system.