The trade balance effects of U.S. foreign direct investment in Mexico

This paper examines the effect of U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico on U.S. exports to and imports from Mexico. The rise of intrafirm exports and imports following U.S. FDI in Mexico suggests that FDI affects trade flows. Empirical estimation proceeds with tests for stationarity and cointegration. The finding of cointegration among the variables leads to estimation of the hypothesized relationships with a vector error-correction model. Impulse response functions and variance decomposition reveal that FDI leads to increased exports and imports during the time period considered.     

版权保护对美国出口影响的实证分析

本文采用引力模型,对美国与不同国家的贸易截面数据进行实证分析显示,美国核心版权产品由于版权保护水平的的提高,对强模仿威胁国家(低保护高模仿)会带来显著的市场扩张效应;增加美国核心版权产品的出口,对弱模仿威胁国家(高保护低模仿)会带来显著的市场力量效应,会使美国出口下降。     

The Role of Trade Negotiating Objectives in TPA-2015 Voting

This paper analyzes 2015-TPA voting patterns of Congress in the context of the trade negotiating objectives. By setting them Congress lays out important trade agenda that the administration is expected to address when it is negotiating trade deals with foreign countries. Therefore it is an important part of the TPA. The probit model is used to evaluate the importance of each objective in Congress’s voting decision. The objective of promoting U.S. exports in agriculture, transportation equipment and metal affected the voting decision. Also the issues of labour rights and intellectual property rights mattered.     

Global value chains and the “missing exports” of the United States

Many American multinational corporations have turned into factory-less. They outsource the production of their products to foreign companies and derive the largest share of their revenues from intellectual property and services embedded in physical products sold to international consumers. However, conventional trade statistics are compiled based on the value of goods crossing national borders, as declared to customs. The value added associated with intellectual property and services embedded in physical goods is not recorded as an export. Current trade statistics greatly underestimate US exports. In this paper, we use the case of Apple, the largest American consumer products company and a typical factory-less manufacturer, to illustrate the failure of conventional trade statistics to report actual US export capacity in the age of global value chains. According to our analysis of this case, if the value added of Apple intellectual property and services embedded in all Apple products sold to foreign consumers were counted as part of US exports, total US exports in 2015 would increase by 3.4%, and its trade deficit would decrease by 7.0%. In terms of bilateral trade, the value added under examination here would raise the US exports to China and Japan by 16.6% and 8.7% respectively, and lower its trade deficit with the two countries by 5.2% and 7.8% accordingly.     

骆家辉访华的台前幕后

美国商务部部长骆家辉于5月15日至25日带领一个内阁级贸易代表团出访中国。骆家辉说，目前美国政府正对出口控制体系进行修改，预计几个月后公布的结果中会有一些“实在建议”。他对修改后的内容出现“有意义”的变革表示乐观。     

Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns

We apply a modified "gravity model" incorporating measures of factor endowments to analyze Japanese and U.S. bilateral trade flows and direct foreign investment positions with a sample of around 100 countries for the period 1985–1990. Country features that our analysis takes into account are population, income, the land–labor ratio, the average level of education, and region. We find that features of a country associated with more trade with either Japan or the United States also tend to be associated with more direct foreign investment (DFI) from Japan or the United States. U.S. economic relations with Japan and Western Europe provide an important exception. Despite U.S. concern about its trade deficit with Japan, we find Japan to be much more open to the United States, not only as a source of imports, but also as a destination for U.S. exports than most countries in Western Europe. Taking other factors into account, however, Western Europe is more open to U.S. direct foreign investment. We also find that a country′s level of education tends to increase significantly U.S. interaction of all types with that country, even after correcting for per capita income. Education does not play a significant role in Japanese trade patterns. As factor endowment theory would predict, the United States tends to trade more with densely populated countries, while Japan tends to import more from sparsely populated countries. Even after taking into account population, income, factor endowments, and region, there is a substantial degree of "bilateralism" in Japanese and U.S. economic relationships in that the residual correlation among exports, imports, and outward direct foreign investment is much larger than would be the case if these magnitudes were independent across countries. J. Japan. Int. Econ. December 1994, 8(4), pp. 478–510. Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215; and National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138.     

The Impact of Foreign Trade on the Employment of Unskilled U.S. Workers: Some New Evidence

This paper explores four empirical relationships reflecting the impact of foreign trade on the employment of unskilled workers: (i) the direct relationship between net exports and embodied education of the corresponding goods; (ii) the changes in domestic prices accompanying changes in net exports; (iii) the relationship between real or potential import competition and defensive measures such as more investment or increasing the skill level of the labor force; and (iv) the relationship between foreign trade and domestic prices. None of these exercises suggests that foreign trade has much impact on the employment of less skilled U.S. workers.     

R&D Investments and Tax Incentives: The Role of Intra-Firm Cross-Border Collaboration*

U.S. multinational corporations increasingly use intra-firm, cross-border research collaboration to disperse R&D across different countries. This paper investigates the implications of such collaboration on the abilities of firms to garner benefits from R&D tax incentives. We find that the association between R&D intensity and tax incentives is three to five times larger when firms have extensive cross-border collaboration connected to a country. We also find that the effect is stronger when local intellectual property protection is weaker and when local innovation resources are higher. Our results suggest that cross-border collaboration helps firms achieve more tax-efficient R&D investments both by reducing the nontax frictions posed by weak intellectual property protection and by increasing the nontax benefits of foreign R&D.     

The complementarity between U.S. foreign direct investment stock and trade

Within a gravity model framework, this paper will establish that trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are complementary, using trade and FDI stock data on a bilateral basis between the U.S. and 51 other countries over the period 1982 to 1994. U.S. outward FDI is found to have a larger predicted impact on U.S. exports than does inward FDI. On the other hand, inward FDI is found to have a larger predicted impact on U.S. imports than does U.S. outward FDI. These results are directly linked to patterns of intrafirm trade within the multinational enterprise (MNE), a result consistent with the transactions cost theory of MNEs. In addition, a sectoral analysis indicates that U.S. outward FDI in manufacturing has a large predicted impact on both exports and imports, whereas U.S. outward FDI in services has a large predicted impact on U.S. exports but little or no predicted impact on imports. Detailed comments and suggestions were provided by Joe Daniels, Albert Berry, and seminar participants at the University of Toronto, York University, Industry Canada, and the 1999 annual Canadian Economics Association meeting. Research assistance was provided by George Georgopoulos and Anthony Yao. The authors are responsible for any remaining errors.     

知识产权保护、行业特征与我国制造业出口比较优势

文章旨在分析知识产权保护能否成为我国制造业出口新的比较优势,利用我国1992-2012年对140个国家或地区的24个制造业行业的出口数据实证检验了三个理论命题。研究发现,知识产权保护对制造业出口比较优势的影响存在门槛,当知识产权保护程度跨过“知识产权保护门槛”后,知识产权保护与行业特征的协同效应才能有利于形成新的出口比较优势;从R&D投入强度、专属性投资强度以及关键要素投入强度三个方面,把我国24个制造业行业分为高行业特征和低行业特征分别进行估计后得到不同结论,低R&D投入强度和低关键要素投入强度制造业行业中,知识产权保护与行业特征的协同作用显著的有利于我国对贸易伙伴出口的增长,相反则不利于我国对贸易伙伴出口的增长。从我国出口方向来看,知识产权保护与产业特征的协同作用,对知识产权保护程度高于我国的地区来说,不能够显著提升出口比较优势。     

论我国外空知识产权的国内立法战略

外空的知识产权问题是伴随着外空活动的商业发展而逐渐出现的。由于现有的国际外空法律文件和有关知识产权的国际公约均没有对外空活动的知识产权作直接规定,使许多国家的企业在推进空间技术进步和开发太空新产品的过程中,在知识产权问题上遇到了冲突与尴尬。因而,近些年来一些发达国家开始利用空间的潜力来表达外空活动中的知识产权问题,并力图形成世界范围的知识产权标准及其在国际上立法的可行性。在这种情况下,中国需要作出战略选择。     

New Borders and Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Analysis of the Baltic States

The objective of this paper is to provide evidence on the effects of an economic and political union by studying the trade flows of the three Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania after the breakup of the Soviet Union. We specify and estimate a gravity model of exports for the Nordic countries which enables us to determine the size and direction of trade flows in the Baltic states had they not been affected by the political institutions of the Soviet Union. Our results suggest that Baltic foreign trade was not only reduced significantly but also diverted to the members of the former Soviet Union. Consistent with our estimates, we also find that these consequences of the former political union are quickly dissipating, and the Baltic countries are increasing their share of exports to the European Union and the U.S.     

美国服务贸易的环境效应——以出口为例

本文以当今世界服务业发展水平最高的美国为例,在对跨境服务贸易和外国附属机构服务贸易分类比较的基础上,通过对2002年6种主要污染物的12个服务业部门的污染排放进行基于8个主要贸易伙伴的国别计算,横向比较美国服务出口对本国造成的环境影响,借此重新认识美国各服务业部门参与国际贸易的环境污染状况,在此基础上提出环保约束下美国调整服务业发展格局及优化对外服务贸易地理的若干政策建议。     

合作创新中知识产权风险的成因及防范

文章阐述了合作创新中知识产权风险的产生机理,以及在伙伴选择、合作运行和成果分配这三个阶段的具体表现,并从国内外环境、合作企业和知识产权三个角度分析了这一风险产生的具体原因。文章最后提出了完善法律、合理选择伙伴、合理设计契约、合理分配成果、加强知识保护和提高保护意识等防范措施。     

United States-China two-way direct investment: Opportunities and challenges

There is surprisingly little cross investment between the U.S. and China, the two largest economies in the world. Only 1.5% of the stock of U.S. direct investment abroad was in China at end-2015. The stock of Chinese direct investment in the U.S. is also lower than would be expected given that the U.S. is the world’s largest recipient of FDI. In recent years, however, the flow of direct investment from China to the U.S. has accelerated rapidly, and if current trends persist within a short time there will be a larger stock of Chinese investment in the U.S. than of U.S. investment in China. The small amount of U.S. investment in China can be traced to two primary factors: first, poor protection of property rights, including intellectual property rights (IPR), which limits the potential benefits that U.S. firms can receive from their technology and brands; and China’s restrictions on direct investment in many sectors important to U.S. firms. Among G-20 countries, China is the most restrictive in terms of openness to direct investment. The relatively small amount of Chinese investment in the U.S. can also be traced to two factors: first, much of the initial impetus for Chinese firms to go out was to secure natural resources, while the U.S. is not a resource-rich country relative to its GDP or population; and second, the national security reviews of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. have soured many Chinese investors on the U.S. market. The two countries have agreed to negotiate a Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT). This could open the doors to large amounts of investment in both directions if it addresses key issues. For U.S. firms, access to more sectors and better protection of IPR are crucial. Chinese firms seek a less politicized environment in which to invest. In its Third Plenum decision of 2013 the Communist Party leadership indicated its intention to open more sectors to foreign investment and competition. A BIT could help lock in these necessary reforms.     

美国经济波动对中国经济增长的影响及其传导机制研究

在开放经济条件下,一国的经济波动会通过国际贸易、国际投资等资本的跨国流动传导到别的国家。鉴于美国已经成为中国主要的贸易伙伴和FDI来源国,其经济的波动会对中国的经济产生很大的影响,因此本文运用基于VAR模型的广义脉冲响应函数法与方差分解法,在以双边贸易与投资为传导纽带,暗含汇率变化影响的基础上定量分析了美国经济波动对中国经济冲击的长期传导机制和短期动态影响特征。冲击响应分析结果表明,美国经济对中国经济的影响更大,美国经济的波动主要通过影响中国对美国出口的途径对中国经济增长造成冲击;方差分解结果显示,中国经济对美国经济的贡献更大。     

Is the relationship between foreign direct investment and trade different across developed and developing countries? Evidence from Korea

Empirical studies that pool data from developed and developing countries may conflate the separate roles played. The pooled coefficient estimates may significantly misrepresent the true relationships. This paper analyses the impact of outward and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows between Korea and developed and developing countries on Korean exports in 12 manufacturing sectors over the 1988–2006 period. The evidence suggests that the outward FDI to developing countries is likely to increase Korean exports to those countries than FDI to developed countries likely to increase exports to developed countries. Thus, pooling investment flows can lead to incorrect inferences.     

The determinants of bilateral FDI: Is Asia different?

Intra-Asian foreign direct investment (FDI) is dominated by flows from high technology economies to medium technology economies, while FDI elsewhere primarily consists of flows among high technology economies. This distinctive pattern is not due simply to differences in the relative distribution of Asian FDI recipients by technology, or to systematic differences in Asia's technology characteristics. A gravity model analysis is used to explore whether Asian FDI patterns differ significantly from those elsewhere, and if so, in what ways. The results show that Asian FDI flows, in contrast to other FDI flows, systematically favor hosts with relatively low technology achievement and relatively strong intellectual property rights regimes. This type of “Asian exceptionalism” is consistent with “flying geese” theories that have argued that Asian development is the result of technology flows among economies that occupy nearby rungs of the technology ladder.     

The relative price of tradables and nontradables and the U.S. trade balance

The real exchange rate is defined as the relative price of nontradables and tradables. An index of the relative price is constructed for the U.S. and used to explain net exports. The index appears to perform better in explaining net exports than a comparable purchasing power parity real exchange rate. The relative price of nontradables, in turn, is shown to be cointegrated with a set of variables that drive the demand for and supply of nontradables. These variables capture long-run structural and demographic changes of the U.S. economy, such as the increased demand for medical services.