European Union enlargement: An historic milestone in the process of European integration

Ten European countries with economies in transition and two market economies are negotiating full membership with the European Union. This paper considers the economic dimension of the forthcoming enlargement of the European Union, especially on the characteristics of the economies in transition and on the economic implications of the enlargement for European Union agriculture. The transition of the central and eastern European countries from a centrally planned to a market economy, although already in progress for a decade, is far from complete. Uneven macroeconomic developments in the various countries can be attributed to some extent to their individual situation at the start of the transformation. However, they also reflect the varying extent to which institutional reform programs have been implemented in these countries.Distinguished Address presented at the Fifty-First International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 13–20, 2001, Athens, Greece.     

Restructuring European union trade with central and eastern European countries

Central and eastern European countries (CEECs) participate in the European economy with trade shares of the European Union (EU) and levels of intraindustry trade comparable to peripheral EU countries. However, the opening of CEECs has induced increased specialization in EU countries, which contrasts with the development in previous decades. This partially explains the cautious approach to the eastward enlargement in the EU. Furthermore, CEECs are more similar to each other than to EU countries. The pattern of the CEECs' trade with the EU resembles that of Turkey. Trade diversion is likely to present a significant burden for countries omitted from the first wave of the enlargement.     

The European Union: Eastern enlargement and taxation

The European Union has not defined its limits in geographical terms. Each enlargement has led and will lead to a decrease of the European Union's per capita GDP. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the transition countries went through a long and deep recession. However, they have reached a stage of positive growth and their tax levels are approaching the lower limit of the range of tax/GDP ratios in European Union countries. Differences exist in tax capacity and tax effort. In some countries, greater efforts are possible to improve tax revenues. Further examination of the timing of tax administration reform may shed light on tax effort in transition countries. The paper also suggests the existence of a negative relationship between tax effort and corruption. (JEL P27, H20) This research is supported in part by San Jose State University (SJSU) during the author's stay at SJSU as 2003-04 International Tax Policy Research Fellow. An earlier version of this paper was presented at a seminar at SJSU. The author gratefully acknowledges useful comments received from seminar participants.     

Macroeconomic impacts of European union membership of central and eastern European economies

This paper examines the impact of an eastern enlargement of the European Union. This is modeled as an increase in total factor productivity and a decrease in the risk premium for the central and eastern European countries (CEECs). In particular, a multicountry model of the world economy is used to assess the direct effects and spillovers of these changes. Inflation targeting for the euro zone by the European Central Bank and alternative scenarios with respect to fiscal policy behavior in the CEECs are considered. According to these simulations, productivity effects are stronger than risk premium effects, and spillovers are small.     

Keynesian and Austrian Perspectives on Crisis, Shock Adjustment, Exchange Rate Regime and (Long-Term) Growth

The 2010/11 European debt crisis has revived the discussion concerning the optimal adjustment strategy in the face of asymmetric shocks. This paper approaches the question from a theoretical perspective by confronting exchange rate based adjustment with crisis adjustment via price and wage cuts. Econometric estimations yield a negative impact of exchange rate flexibility/volatility on growth, which is found to be particularly strong for countries with asymmetric business cycles and during recessions. Price flexibility is found to have a positive impact on growth. Based on these findings we support a further enlargement of the European Monetary Union and recommend more exchange rate stability for the rest of the world.     

The International Reserves Issue in the EMU

This paper examines the effects of the Economic and Monetary Union on demand for foreign reserves. The traditional theory on demand for international reserves assigns a pivotal role to imports. However, in a currency union part of imports are settled in the common currency, leaving no incentive for keeping foreign reserves. Moreover, the pooling of the demand for reserves in the currency union and an increasing role of a currency as an international reserve currency may also influence, among other things, the union demand for reserves. Based on estimated demand functions for reserves it is shown that the Economic and Monetary Union has reduced the demand for reserves substantially. It is argued that an enlargement with new member countries of the European Union will result in further savings of reserves. A simple calculation at the end of the paper illustrates the welfare gain associated with the reduced need of reserves in the Economic and Monetary Union.     

EU Enlargement and the New Goods Margin in Austrian Trade

Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (J Polit Econ 121(2):358–392, 2013), I measure the change in the extensive, or new goods, margin of trade between Austria and the ten new entrants to the European Union in 2004. On average, the new goods account for 56 % of the bilateral trade flow after enlargement. A time series measure shows growth in the new goods margin coincides with the period surrounding the 2004 enlargement, which provides evidence on the importance of the role played by the new goods margin in the growth in trade during a trade liberalization.     

Enlargement, the Lisbon Agenda, and the Economic Development of Member States

The issues of enlargement, the Lisbon Agenda, and economic development are important not only to new European Union (EU) member states but impact all 25 countries. EU membership may help the new members to foster long-term economic growth through increased credibility, effective use of structural funds, a better framework for economic growth, and entry into the European Monetary Union (EMU). The economic growth of all member states can be strengthened if the reforms related to the main goals of the Lisbon Agenda are completed. Action must be taken both at the member-state level and at the Community level. At the member-state level it is necessary to assure fiscal consolidation and deregulation. At the Community level the preservation of the Stability and Growth Pact, completion of the single market, especially in the service sector, and enforcement of limits on public aid are of the greatest importance.The 2006 Robert A. Mundell Distinguished Address presented at the Sixty-First International Atlantic Economic Conference. Berlin, Germany, 15–19 March 2006. In preparing this paper, I was assisted by Pawel Opala and Andrzej Rzońca. The usual caveats apply.     

Shall the New EU Members Introduce the Euro? Some Macroeconomic Policy Effects

After the EU enlargement in 2004, there is a clear commitment of the EU and the new member states to aim at an enlargement of the euro zone within the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) as well. This might have significant effects on the old EMU, the new members, and even on the global economy. The present paper analyzes some macroeconomic effects and particularly the impact on the effects of stabilization policies when switching to an enlarged euro zone under different assumptions about fiscal and monetary policy regimes in Europe and under alternative types of economic shocks. Also, the implications for the US of different European monetary regimes are evaluated. The results suggest that economic benefits for all countries are rather small. For the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), even disadvantages may dominate.     

东亚与欧盟区域的产品需求结构与贸易模式

东亚和欧盟分别表现为外需主导型和内需主导型的贸易模式。两种不同的贸易模式对经济发展产生着不同的影响。由于东亚区域对外部最终产品市场的严重依赖,所以,后危机时代下,东亚贸易模式转型的必要性更加明显。但是,东亚贸易模式的转型将是一个长期的过程,而中国将在这个过程中发挥重要的作用。     

Modeling the dependence of gas demand from gas prices and GDP growth rates in domestic and foreign markets

The article deals with natural gas pricing in Europe and Russia. Regression models on the dependence of the demand for Russian gas in the European Union from gas export prices and GDP growth rates in the European Union (far abroad) are developed. Adequate regression models are also developed for the dependence of the domestic demand for gas from gas prices and GDP growth rates in Russia. The coefficients of gas demand elasticity of gas prices and GDP growth rates in the European Union and Russia are estimated. The relationship between inflation and GDP growth rates in Russia and gas prices is estimated.     

The relationship between monetary policy and economic development in modern Europe: Problems and possible solutions

The author analyzes the risks of dismantling of the European Union posed by the current monetary policy, under which the single currency of the European Union not only retarded economic growth, but also led to economic contraction and high unemployment. Analyzing the widely debated idea of federalization as a way to tackle the challenge of Euroscepticism in major European countries and estimating the net transfers that are necessary for the proper functioning of the recipient country, the author concludes that federalization can only be considered a real action provided the current policy pursued by Germany as the hegemon of the European Union is to change. In the conclusion, the article reviews the problem of monetary independence as a necessary condition for the implementation of a national industrial policy based on the experience of France.     

Money Markets and Poliarchic Democratic States

This paper deals with legal and institutional issues that arise from the formation of Economic and Monetary Union. The latter implies a transfer of power from the state to the metastate apparatus of the European Union. Integration in the European Union cannot be completed without a new constitutional structure.     

The distribution of power within the EU: perspectives on a Ukrainian accession and a Turkish accession

International Economics and Economic Policy - On February 28th, 2022, Ukraine submitted an application concerning accession to the European Union. As Ukraine is already linked to the European Union...     

应对欧盟反倾销的策略:基于财务会计视角

由于欧盟对我国企业反倾销调查急剧上升,严重影响了我国对外贸易的发展。通过分析欧盟“市场经济地位”标准中的财务会计因素,从财务会计层面采取相应的应对准备,将是维护我国企业正当权益,减少贸易摩擦的上策。     

论物质循环法律责任——欧盟模式与美国模式之比较

循环经济的推进有赖于物质循环法律责任的确定和履行,当前物质循环法律责任主要可分为欧盟模式和美国模式。欧盟的生产者延伸责任模式强调了生产者的义务但忽略了责任的分担问题;美国的产品全程管理模式虽然突出了责任的分担,但缺乏责任的具体指定,容易导致所有人的责任成为实际上没有人承担责任的情况。适当的物质循环法律责任应当选取兼具二者长处的以生产者为主的共同责任模式。     

The welfare effects of a european anti-dumping duty and price-undertaking policy

In the framework of its anti-dumping policy, the European Union can use two instruments: an anti-dumping duty and a price-undertaking. The objective of both instruments is to eliminate the price difference, on the European market, between a European product and a similar foreign product which is dumped on the European market. The authors first briefly look at the institutional framework within which the European Union operates, and at the actual use made of the two instruments since 1980. The main purpose of the paper is to show that, from a welfare point of view, an anti-dumping duty is always better than a price-undertaking. This result is very robust: it holds for quasi-linear preferences, under both Bertrand and Cournot competition, and irrespective of the timing of the firms' decisions.     

拥抱欧盟——土耳其的动机与机遇

加入欧盟一直是土耳其的梦想,但至今仍被欧盟拒绝。自2008年全球经济危机以来,特别是近期大中东地区"革命"不断、当下利比亚战事又陷入僵局,土耳其对于欧盟的重要性与日俱增,土耳其入盟出现了新的机遇,应予以关注。     

The fundamental determinants of financial integration in the European Union

The Fundamental Determinants of Financial Integration in the European Union. — This paper focuses on the fundamental determinants of the degree of financial integration in the European Union over the period 1974–1993. Using closed interest rate differentials to measure the intensity of capital controls and applying a pooled cross-section time-series approach, the authors find realized inflation, government instability and gross fixed capital formation to have a strong and significantly positive effect on the intensity of capital export controls. In addition, they expect the influence of economic and financial market structure on closed interest rate differentials to increase in the future.     

Problems of eurozone expansion to the East: Example of Poland

This article presents real and nominal convergence, which defines the conditions of expansion of the Economic and Monetary Union of the European Union; on the basis of an analysis of the financial and economic problems of Poland, the prospects of its accession to the eurozone are estimated.