Job creation, job destruction, and the real exchange rate

Welfare gains from trade are reduced by adjustment costs associated with factor reallocation, but most studies of the effects of trade on labor markets focus only on net employment change. This paper takes a step toward identifying trade-related adjustment costs by estimating the effects of real exchange rates on labor reallocation using a new model of gross job creation and destruction applied to detailed U.S. manufacturing industries between 1973 and 1993. Trend real exchange rates significantly affect job reallocation but not net employment. Cyclical real exchange rates significantly affect net employment through job destruction only.     

Low-wage country competition and the quality content of high-wage country exports

We study how competition from low-wage countries in international markets affects the quality content of high-wage country exports. We focus on aggregate quality changes driven by a reallocation of sales from low- to high-quality exporters, within industries. Two alternative indicators are used on firm-level data to measure quality changes. Both lead to similar conclusions. Namely, we show that the mean quality of French exports increased by 10–15% between 1995 and 2005. Quality improvement is significantly more pronounced in markets in which competition from low-wage countries has increased the most. This holds true for various specifications including two different identification strategies. The results are consistent with competition from low-wage countries leading developed countries to specialize within industries in the production of higher quality goods.     

Survival of the best fit: Exposure to low-wage countries and the (uneven) growth of U.S. manufacturing plants

This paper examines the role of international trade in the reallocation of U.S. manufacturing within and across industries from 1977 to 1997. Motivated by the factor proportions framework, we introduce a new measure of industry exposure to international trade that focuses on where imports originate rather than on their overall level. We find that plant survival and growth are negatively associated with industry exposure to low-wage country imports. Within industries, we show that manufacturing activity is disproportionately reallocated towards capital-intensive plants. Finally, we provide the first evidence that firms adjust their product mix in response to trade pressures. Plants are more likely to switch industries when exposure to low-wage countries is high.     

Why are establishments so heterogeneous?

Changes in the size of establishments — as opposed to the turnover of workers across a given set of jobs — account for a non-negligible component of gross workers flows. Based on a rich database of establishment-level employment records in western Germany, this paper analyses the magnitude and determinants of job turnover and its relation with labour turnover. Consistently with findings from other countries, it is shown that job turnover is mainly the byproduct of the dispersion of establishment-level outcomes within any industry rather than of job reallocation across different sectors. The role played by disturbances to consumer preferences over differentiated products is also assessed in an attempt to shed some light on the determinants of this tremendous heterogeneity of establishment-level employment changes within each industry.The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD. The author would like to thank Boyan Jovanovic and an anonymous referee for useful comments on an initial draft.     

The Causes and Consequences of Sectoral Reallocation: Evidence from the Early 21st Century

A number of industries underwent large and permanent reductions in employment growth at the beginning of this decade. We investigate the sources of these permanent changes in employment growth and what the consequences were for the U.S. economy. In particular, we find that relative declines in demand rather than technological innovations were the key drivers of the elevated levels of job destruction and permanent layoffs in the affected industries. In addition, most workers that were displaced in downsizing industries relocated to other sectors. While this process of reallocation led to large increases in productivity (and a reduction in labor's share of aggregate income) in industries shedding workers, it also resulted in prolonged periods of unemployment for many displaced workers, along with sizable reductions in earnings that were consistent with substantial losses in their specific human capital. Putting these pieces together, we estimate the costs to those adversely affected by these events to have been 1/2 percent to 1 percent of aggregate income per year.     

为什么中国会出现“低就业的增长”——一个基于地方政府竞争的视角

为什么中国会出现＂低就业的增长＂？许多学者对此从不同角度提出了解释。我们认为,导致此现象的原因是我国的地方政府竞争。在地方政府竞争下,为追求GDP的快速增长,各地方政府会选择和扶持具有更强GDP增长效应的资本密集型产业,而忽视劳动密集型产业,从而导致资本挤出劳动,使我国出现＂低就业的增长＂。     

The Turnover of Market Leaders in Growing and Declining Industries: Evidence from Japan

This article explores the turnover of market leaders in the manufacturing and information and communications industries in Japan. We propose indices for market mobility by focusing on the turnover of market leaders and examine how the likelihood of the turnover of market leaders differs across industries. We provide evidence that market leaders are more likely to be replaced by competitors in growing and declining industries, relative to industries where the growth is more stable. Moreover, the results reveal that the turnover of market leaders is more likely to occur in research and development-intensive industries. Furthermore, the interaction effects of industry growth and concentration indicate that the turnover of market leaders is more likely to occur in declining industries with high concentration.     

Retaining a Mexican Labor Force

This paper sets forth the findings of a research study undertaken in Chihuahua, Mexico. The length of stay of 1 866 employees in six maquiladora plants is analyzed across a maximum of 24 months. By drawing on discrete time hazard modeling, the research analyzes the extent to which work and nonwork factors contributed to employee length of stay in the late 1980s. It examines, in particular, the influence of position, cohort grouping, plant type, and demographic characteristics on employee duration in the participating plants.The findings show that line operators at the peak of high employment turnover in the maquiladora industry remained employed for an average of 10 months. The study highlights important differences, for the results were not uniform across all maquiladora employees. There were variations in length of stay among employees of different types of plants, in different positions in the same company, different months of entry, and different migrant status.Important ethical issues can also be raised from the study, notably the question of structural turnover being intentionally designed as a consequence of the hiring policies of the multinational corporations in the area.     

Jobs and Exposure to International Trade within the Service Sector in Sweden

To establish in which service industries there is international trade (or it may potentially exist), we calculate locational Ginis for different industries. The basic idea is that from this measure of regional concentration of different activities within a country we can identify industries where there appears to be regional trade, and hence also a potential for international trade. Based on our method, we find that: (i) the number of employed in tradable service appears to be at least as large as in the manufacturing sector, (ii) tradable service is much more skill intensive than manufacturing, and (iii) lately, the employment in tradable service has increased substantially. We argue that the last mentioned result is consistent with the substantial growth of skilled labour in Sweden since the mid‐1990s (Rybczynski effect) and factors leading to increased relative demand for skilled labour. Particularly, increased competition from and offshoring to low‐wage countries seem recently to have had a considerable impact on the creation of skilled jobs and the displacement of less skilled jobs in the tradable sector in Sweden. Furthermore, we apply a similar method as for industries to identify tradable occupations. Using our classification of tradable industries and tradable occupations in a Mincer type wage equation, we find that workers in such industries and occupations receive a wage premia of 12–13 per cent.     

Trade, turnover, and tithing

This paper examines the hypothesis that turnover affects trade preferences. High turnover industries are similar to the Stolper-Samuelson assumption of perfect factor mobility, so factor of production drives trade preferences. Among low turnover industries, as in the specific factors model, net export position determines trade preferences. We show that PAC contribution patterns are consistent with this hypothesis. In high turnover industries, capital groups give significantly larger shares of their campaign contributions to free trade supporters than labor groups do. Among low turnover industries, on the other hand, exporting and import-competing groups differ significantly in their financial support for free traders.     

Trade policy, trade volumes and plant-level productivity in Colombian manufacturing industries

This paper explores a period of substantial variation in trade policy across industries in Colombia (1977-1991) to examine whether increased exposure to foreign competition generates productivity gains for manufacturing plants. Using an estimation methodology that addresses the shortcomings of previous studies, we find a strong positive impact of tariff liberalization on plant productivity, even after controlling for plant and industry heterogeneity, real exchange rates, and cyclical effects. The impact of liberalization is stronger for larger plants and plants in less competitive industries. Our findings are not driven by the endogeneity of protection. Similar results are obtained when using effective rates of protection and import penetration ratios as measures of protection. Productivity gains under trade liberalization are linked to increases in intermediate inputs' imports, skill intensity, and machinery investments, and to output reallocations from less to more productive plants.     

Short‐term Consequences of Trade Reform for Industry Employment and Wages: Survey of Evidence from Colombia

Recent research has focused on the short‐ to medium‐term implications of trade reforms for the labour market outcomes and poverty in poor economies. This article summarises the evidence on the short‐term consequences of the Colombian trade reform initiated in 1985 for industry employment and industry wages. Although the reform reduced manufacturing tariffs on average by 40 percentage points from 1984 to 1994, tariff declines were not significantly associated with labour reallocation across sectors. The reform, however, was associated with bigger declines in relative industry wages in sectors that experienced bigger tariff cuts. This evidence is in line with the predictions of short‐ to medium‐run models of trade in which labour is not mobile across sectors. It is also consistent with the predictions of models where imperfectly competitive industries share rents with workers and trade reduces the firms’ profit margins and thus workers’ rents.     

Home Firm Performance After Foreign Investments and Divestitures

An almost undisputed aim for firms in today's globalised world is to operate internationally. Several papers find a positive relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and the domestic performance of firms. In this paper, we address the ‘FDI – export’ relationship to better understand this trend. Furthermore, by presenting results on firm's post‐divestiture employment growth at home, we are able to provide a more comprehensive view on firm performance after stepping in and out of foreign markets. We apply a propensity score matching technique in combination with a difference‐in‐difference estimator to analyse the performance dynamics of French firms that either invested abroad or carried out foreign divestitures during the period 2000–2007. FDI has, on average, a positive effect in terms of export share, operating turnover and employment in firm's domestic market. Industry differences reveal that firms in high‐tech industries experience a strong increase in their domestic performance, whereas firm performance in low‐tech industries increases only moderately in post‐investment periods. In contrast, the divestiture impact on the post‐divestiture performance is rather negligible.     

Productivity Growth,Protection and Plant Entry in a Deregulating Economy: The Case of India

In this paper we study the comparative performance of Indian manufacturing industries during relatively recent periods of domestic regulation and de-regulation of plant entry. The period of de-regulation is accompanied by largely unchanging levels of import competition and higher output growth. The growth of labour and total factor productivity (TFPG) is observed to be higher during the deregulation period. We use data on 42 three-digit manufacturing industries. Our sample covers consumer, intermediate and capital good industries. We study the relationship between levels of effective protection and total factor productivity growth (TFPG). We found that increasing effective rates of protection was not associated with lower TFPG. We test the hypothesis that higher degree of trade protection induces greater entry of plants. This hypothesis is statistically supported. Our econometric estimates found a positive association between net entry and TFPG, after controlling for inter-industry differences in effective protection, asset size of plants and demand growth. Our results support the proposition that competition positively contributes to TFPG during deregulation.     

Firm entry and turnover: the nexus with profitability and growth

The paper presents a new sectoral taxonomy, which classifies industries according to the opportunity and cost of experimentation. Econometric tests show for a sample of 24 countries that in the 1990s ‘entrepreneurial’ industries with a mutable and growing firm population experienced the highest growth in terms of value added and employment, but also the lowest growth of labour productivity. ‘Entrepreneurial’ industries generally earned a better profit-ratio than ‘routinised’ industries with an inertial population. The results are consistent with entrepreneurial theories of market competition, which suggest that entry follows profit opportunities but does not deplete them.      

Explaining National Differences in the Size and Industry Distribution Employment

What forces determine national differences in the size and industry distribution of employment? We stress the role of the economic policy environment as determined by business taxes, employment security laws, credit market regulations, the national pension system, wage-setting institutions and the size of the public sector. We characterize these aspects of the economic environment in Sweden prior to 1990–91 and compare them to the situation in other European countries and the United States. Our characterization and international comparisons show that Swedish policies and institutions strongly disfavored less capital-intensive firms, smaller firms, entry by new firms, and individual and family ownership of business.

We also compile evidence that these forces affect outcomes. Taking the U.S. industry distribution as a benchmark that reflects a comparatively neutral set of policies and institutions, Sweden's employment distribution in the mid-1980s is sharply tilted away from low-wage industries and industries with greater employment shares for smaller firms and establishments. Compared to other European countries, Sweden has an unusually high share of employment in large firms. Furthermore, the Swedish rate of self- employment in the 1970s and 1980s is the lowest among all OECD countries.

The institutional and policy factors emphasized by our study differ greatly across countries. This fact suggests that our approach can be fruitfully applied to other studies of national differences in industry and size structures and their evolution over time. As an example, the tax reform wave of the 1980s – which largely evened out cross-country differences in corporate taxation among OECD countries – offers some basis for projecting a movement towards greater similarity among wealthy countries in the size and industry distribution of employment.

     

The canada-U.S. free trade agreement

This article examines the forces that caused Canada and the United States to negotiate the free trade agreement, its principal provisions, the projected welfare gains, and estimated labor adjustments. Focusing on the latter, the impact on manufacturing employment is expected to be positive but small in the United States and negative but small in Canada; with the agriculture and resource sectors losing employment shares in both countries. The impact on services will be negligible in the United States and positive in Canada. Focusing on specific industries, nonferrous metals sector appears vulnerable in the United States, while textiles, clothing, furniture and fixtures, electrical and nonelectrical equipment and machinery, nonmetallic mineral products, and fabricated metal products appear vulnerable in Canada. However, actual job losses could be significantly circumscribed by moderate growth and employee turnover, and within vulnerable Canadian industries, there are pockets of significant strength such as in office furniture and telecommunications equipment.     

The labor force of the future.

In the decades ahead, the US labor force will reflect changes in the industrial structure, with declines in some manufacturing industries and expansion in service industries. The services sector is so diverse that the jobs within it cannot be categorized as either high wage or low wage. The service-producing sector employs 85% of professional specialty workers in the US. In general, information on compensation trends indicates that greater increases in compensation have occurred for workers in service-producing as opposed to goods-producing industries. The increase in service sector jobs has created opportunities for women to enter the labor force and, at present, 5 out of 6 women work in this sector compared to fewer than 2 out of 3 men. Productivity growth rates in the service-producing industries vary substantially and are strongly affected by the business cycle. Central to employment opportunities in the years ahead will be the effect of new technology. To date, the aggregate effect of new technology has been increased employment and higher living standards. Although retraining programs should be in place, the scenario of a huge technology-created labor surplus seems unlikely. In fact, a more likely problem is a shortage of labor resulting from earlier labor force withdrawal and demographic aging of the population. Those in the 25-54-year age group will represent a larger share of the labor force in the years ahead. In addition, blacks are expected to account for 20% of the labor force growth in the next decade. Finally, given increasing labor force participation rates among mothers, employers may have to provide more flexible work schedules, assistance with day care, and more attractive benefits packages.     

Does an (in)congruent corporate social responsibility strategy affect employees' turnover intention? A configurational analysis in an emerging country

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives toward internal and external stakeholders can independently contribute to employee attitudes and behaviors. However, little is known about the joint effects of (in)congruent internal-external CSR strategies on employee outcomes. Drawing from social exchange theory, we argue that when employees perceive that their organizations excessively favor CSR efforts to external rather than internal stakeholders, it can trigger a psychological contract breach, resulting in increased employees' turnover intention. We utilized a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis method and the data of 511 employee from various industries in the Philippines to investigate the interaction effects. The results revealed that a congruent CSR strategy with high internal and external CSR perceptions is critical in fulfilling employees' psychological contracts and retaining employees. However, for employees with low perceived internal CSR, a high incongruent CSR perception led to a psychological contract breach and ultimately to high turnover intention. Psychological contract breach weakened the negative joint effect of high perceived internal and external CSR on turnover intention and strengthened the positive effect of high perceived incongruent CSR on turnover intention. Implications for research and practice are discussed.     

我国省区三次产业就业结构与劳均资本存量关系分析

在经济发展过程中,就业结构变化和劳均资本存量上升是经济发展质量提高的根本要求。本文搜集并利用近二十年相关数据,计算了我国各省区三次产业就业比例与劳均资本存量。分析发现,各省区第一产业就业比例急剧下降、劳均资本存量迅速增长,劳均资本存量与就业结构变化存在显著的因果关系,资本存量上升促进了就业结构优化;省区之间就业结构、劳均资本存量差距很大。因此,政府应采取均衡投资战略,避免资本过度集中;发达省区应进一步优化资源配置,提高资本产出效率;中西部省区则应加强资本积累、因地制宜发展产业,促进第一产业劳动力就近转移。