TIME PREFERENCE, ABATEMENT COSTS, AND INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY: AN APPRAISAL OF IPCC 1995

This paper appraises current economic methodologies used in analyzing the social rate of time preference and discounting, abatement costs, and value of life estimates as they relate to climate change. It makes a case for choosing an appropriate rate of time preference when assessing climate policies, including both positive and normative considerations. Furthermore, the paper argues that the currently estimated disparity in the cost of greenhouse gas abatement between developed countries and developing countries may be inaccurate. Integrating discount rates, abatement costs, and value of life estimates highlights important and contrasting implications of international climate policy for developing and high-income countries. The context of the paper is the forthcoming Second Assessment Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.     

The Aggregation of Climate Change Damages: a Welfare Theoretic Approach

The economic value of environmental goods is commonly determined using the concepts of willingness to pay (WTP) or willingness to accept (WTA). However, the WTP/WTA observed in different countries (or between individuals) will differ according to socio-economic characteristics, in particular income. This notion of differentiated values for otherwise identical goods (say, a given reduction in mortality risk) has been criticized as unethical, most recently in the context of the 'social cost' chapter of the IPCC Second Assessment Report. These critics argue that, being a function of income, WTP/WTA estimates reflect the unfairness in the current income distribution, and for equity reasons uniform per-unit values should therefore be applied across individuals and countries. This paper analyses the role of equity in the aggregation of climate change damage estimates, using basic tools of welfare economics. It shows one way of how WTP/WTA estimates can be corrected in aggregation if the underlying income distribution is considered unfair. It proposes that in the aggregation process individual estimates be weighted with an equity factor derived from the social welfare and utility functions. Equity weighting can significantly increase aggregate (global) damage figures, although some specifications of weighting functions also imply reduced estimates. The paper also shows that while the postulate of uniform per-unit values is compatible with a wide range of 'reasonable' utility and welfare specifications, there are also cases where the common-value notion is not compatible with defensible welfare concepts.     

清洁生产评价在造纸行业环境影响评价中的应用研究

造纸工业是我国的重要产业之一,但同时又是污染较为严重的行业,造纸行业是环境影响评价关注的重要类别。为此,本文从清洁生产的角度,通过对某造纸企业的生产从原材料、产品、资源消耗和污染物排放为指标的清洁生产全过程进行综合评价,定量分析与评定出企业清洁生产的总体水平。以此为例,探讨和研究了造纸企业清洁生产评价方法、一般程序和评价内容。     

我国和谐社区评价指标体系研究综述

和谐社区是和谐社会的基础。和谐社区评价指标体系是和谐社区建设的一个参照标准和有力工具。文章对和谐社区评价指标体系的内涵,构建原则,内容和评价方法等相关研究作了综述整理,并指明了后续的研究方向。     

Structural current accounts in the European Union countries: cross-sectional exploration

This paper investigates structural determinants of the current account balance and assesses whether the current accounts in the European Union countries were consistent with the calculated structural current accounts between 1995 and 2017. We estimate current account regressions using cross-sectional data for 94 countries in 2008–2016 and confirm the main findings with panel data estimates. We document that the current account depends on the real exchange rate in a nonlinear way. The real exchange rate affects the current account at low income levels, but it ceases to be important at high income levels. Based on structural current account estimates for the European Union countries, we document that after the 2008 crisis current accounts adjusted towards structural current accounts in deficit countries, but persisted above structural current accounts in surplus countries.     

Study On Some Problems In Estimating China's Gross Domestic Product

This paper discusses the five main problems with current price estimates of China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). These are the measurement of housing services, fiscal subsidies, welfare services provided within enterprises, rural industry and livestock products. The paper gives the possible ranges of error arising from problems in these areas and shows their quantitative impact on GDP estimates. The paper concludes that these problems have some impact on the structure of China's GDP, but limited impact on the total size of China's GDP. The official estimates, therefore, provide a reasonably accurate measure of the size of China's current price GDP.     

基于贴近度的技术成熟度评估方法及应用

目前技术成熟度评估普遍采用基于TRL的专家评估方法,该方法过度依赖专家知识,客观性不足,同时评估过程专家只能被动的逐条回答按照TRL设置的一系列问题,专家的评估思路和评估方向不能有效集中和明确,导致重复劳动,效率降低。本文提出了基于贴近度的技术成熟度评估方法,构建了多层次的评估参数结构,并结合实例介绍了技术成熟度基准状态层次数量的确定、基准状态的建立、基准状态特征参数的选择、专家评估数据处理等关键技术,在很大程度上解决了目前技术成熟度评估中的上述问题,并且对该方法的评估参数结构的开放性的特点的应用进行了展望。     

武当山风景名胜区五龙宫景区风景 特质识别研究

风景特质评价(Landscape Character Assessment)作为一种管理风景变化的新工具,近年来受到了广泛关注。目前风景特质评价的研究对象多集中在国土尺度或自然乡野地,对于风景名胜区特质的识别研究尚属空白。介绍了风景特质评价的基本流程,尝试对武当山风景名胜区中的五龙宫景区进行风景特质识别,绘制了武当山风景名胜区的风景特质图,总结了英国风景特质评价作业体系的优缺点及研究局限,提出了今后的研究展望和建议     

企业经营业绩评价方法的比较研究

评价方法是业绩评价体系的重要组成部分,如果说指标体系的合理设置是业绩评价结果客观、公正的前提条件,则业绩评价方法的科学选择与运用是业绩评价结果客观、公正的必要保证。本文在对几种主要的业绩评价方法,包括主成分分析评价法、层次分析评价法、功效系数评价法、综合分析判断法和比较分析评价法的特点和适用范围进行介绍、分析、总结、比较的基础上,提出了科学地选择与运用业绩评价方法应注意的问题及有关建议。     

ECONOMIC MODELING AND THE FALSE TRADEOFF BETWEEN ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

One important element of the current policy debate on what measures should be taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is the controversy over the costs of reducing those emissions. "Top-down" macroeconomic and general equilibrium models give much higher estimates of the costs than "bottom-up" models based on microeconomic and engineering data. This paper investigates the causes of the divergence between the two modeling approaches. The conventional top-down models incorporate strong implicit assumptions about maximization, technical progress, and organizational efficiency that predetermine their results. However, these assumptions are questionable on both theoretical and empirical grounds. Economic assessment of policy alternatives would benefit. from analyses that take account of the actual characteristics of business firms and other organizations that emit greenhouse gases in the course of their activities.     

EFFECT OF SURVEY CONDITIONS ON SELF-REPORTED SUBSTANCE USE

This paper examines the impact of survey conditions on the self-reported use of marijuana, cocaine, and alcohol in the 1984 and 1988 waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). The analysis obtains probit estimates of lifetime and current participation rates and ordered probit estimates for the current frequency of use. The results clearly indicate that the manner in which the NLSY survey is administered significantly affects the self-reported substance use data. The presence of others at administration, self-administration, and data collection by telephone interview are particularly important influences .     

土地利用过程中的生态环境评价体系

随着第二次全国土地调查的全面展开,土地利用现状及规划中的生态环境评价逐渐引起大家更深入的关注.本文从土地利用生态环境评价的区域范围、数据来源、评价指标、评价方法和技术手段等几个方面对当前土地利用过程中的生态环境评价体系进行了综合评述与讨论,总结国内一些具有代表性的生态环境质量评价指标体系,指出了当前土地利用生态环境评价体系中存在的问题,并为今后的继续研究提出了建议.     

英国城市绿地质量评估工具研究： 以绿色旗帜奖为例

中国城市绿地建设已进入量质并重的时期。评估工 具是管控绿地质量的一种重要手段。首先梳理英国城市绿地 质量评估工具开发的缘起与主要评估工具，其次解析英国国 家级评估工具绿色旗帜奖(Green Flag Award，GFA)的 开发目标、质量标准、发展演进、配套政策与使用方法，再 次以爱丁堡为例，总结GFA的在地化应用与实效，最后总结 GFA在开发与应用方面的启示与不足以供借鉴。     

Technology assessment network building: The International Association of Technology Assessment and Forecasting Institutions

With the globalization of trade and the increased understanding of transboundary problems such as global climate change, the need for understanding the consequences of technological change has never been higher. Institutional arrangements necessary to assess these changes and make decision makers aware of the consequences have not necessarily adapted to these world conditions. In response to this leading technology assessment and forecasting institutions formed an international association of technology assessment and forecasting institutions to assist in the diffusion of technology assessment in the decision-making process. This paper discusses the origins of the International Association of Technology Assessment and Forecasting Institutions (IATAFI) and the goals and vision for the organization. The following articles represent some of the topics discussed at the first IATAFI conference in Bergen, Norway in May 1994.     

NEW ESTIMATES OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM 1830–1914

This paper presents a new annual series for United Kingdom gross national product, at current and constant prices, calculated from the expenditure side. These results differ significantly from previous estimates in that they go back to the beginning of the railway age on an annual basis and also in that the constant price estimates involve a detailed deflation of the main components of expenditure on consumption and capital formation. The implications of the new results are summarised, with particular reference to rates of growth and relative price changes, and an appendix describes the sources of the estimates.     

An assessment of the empirical magnitude of option values for environment goods

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the magnitude of option values relative to expected surplus using a model presented by Larson and Flacco (1992). Option values and option prices are computed for both simulated data sets and actual estimates of recreation demands. Results indicate that option values engendered by price and income uncertainty are generally quite a small percent of expected surplus.     

Social assessment of technology and some of its international aspects

Search for some means of social management of technology has become a major concern for science and technology policy in recent years. Social Assessment of Technology (SAT) is considered as a potentially important instrument of this new orientation of policy. The concept of social assessment of technology leads to a reappraisal of the role of science and technology in a contemporary society, both with regard to policy, and to final objectives. It is a new approach to a better informed decision-making. Though it is of interest to all segments of the policy-making process, one would expect that social assessment of technology should be closely linked to technology policy. However, from the institutional point of view, technology has no place of its own. The term “technology” was only recently added to that of science in the relevant national government agencies. This is a purely formal link. To arrive at an operational outline of technology policy, a much deeper understanding of technology and the innovative process in general is still necessary.The lack of an appropriate institutional “niche” makes it particularly difficult to envisage technology assessment studies at an international level. The work accomplished by OECD is of interest, since it is the first experience of its kind. Theoretical and factual investigations had led to the publication of a comprehensive analysis, Society and the Assessment of Technology, and a report on Methodological Guidelines for Social Assessment of Technology. This was followed by an attempt to test the social assessment approach in applying it to real problems of interested member countries. International cooperation in the field of social assessment of technology is hampered by a number of major difficulties such as changing objectives of national policy, secrecy, race for a competitive advantage, insufficient diffusion and understanding of the concept itself, and the unwillingness or inability of decision-makers to consider middle- and long-term policies.     

基于模糊一致矩阵的我国 对外直接投资宏观风险分析

后金融危机时期国际政治经济局势复杂多变,我国对外直接投资的宏观风险明显增大。判断与衡量东道国宏观风险状况,成为投资决策的重要前提。本文在分析我国对外直接投资的政治与政策风险、宏观经济风险、市场风险和行业风险等宏观风险基础上,选取对外直接投资限制性指数、不变价格GDP的变化率、利率以及破产企业数四个指标,运用模糊一致矩阵方法,对我国较为重要的投资东道国--十五个OECD成员的宏观投资风险进行了衡量和排序,提供了判断与衡量东道国宏观风险的思路与方法。     

Welfare-Induced Migration at State Borders: New Evidence from Micro-Data

This paper extends and synthesizes the various approaches used in the recent welfare migration literature to both offer the most comprehensive set of tests to date for welfare migration and to also determine the relative importance of short-distance moves in welfare migration flows. The current study follows on the finding of McKinnish (2005) of welfare migration effects obtained by comparing welfare participation at state borders to state interiors. This identification strategy is extended to micro-data from the 1980 and 1990 Decennial Censuses and combined with the demographic comparisons used elsewhere in the welfare migration literature. The signs and patterns of the estimates are consistent with the presence of welfare migration effects, and the magnitudes of the estimates are consistent with the importance of short-distance moves in welfare-induced migration flows, but most of the estimates are not statistically significant.     

WORKING WITH WHAT WE HAVE: HOW CAN EXISTING DATA BE USED IN THE CONSTRUCTION AND ANALYSIS OF SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC MATRICES?1

This paper outlines a general strategy for constructing socio-demographic matrices, starting with a set of initial estimates based on available data and ending with a set of final estimates adjusted to meet the constraints connecting their true values. The method is described and illustrated by a numerical example taken from the author's current work on marital transition matrices. The figures relate to the male population of England and Wales in 1978 and are based on British official statistics of population numbers, births, deaths, migrations, marriages, widowhoods and divorces.