基础与应用研究的进化发展模型研究

本文针对新的科技发展态势,引入历史的动态进化发展观,对基础研究-应用研究赋予不断进化发展的新内涵,使交叉学科、前沿研究等新概念纳入统一的基础研究与应用研究范式,特别强调了对具有基础研发特色的应用研究的重视,提出将前沿研发的企业纳入国家基础研究体制的建议,以与时俱进的调整科研组织与科研战略。     

在范式转换中探寻“宏观经济学的微观基础”——一个基于马克思经济学研究视角的理论解析

在经济思想史上,经济学分析范式历经多次转换,特别是19世纪70年代的"边际革命"和20世纪30年代的"凯恩斯革命"分别促成了新古典微观经济学与凯恩斯宏观经济学的主导地位.这种宏微观理论的割裂使经济学研究存在不合理的悖反,推动了西方经济学寻求"宏观经济学的微观基础"的理论探讨.20世纪70年代资本主义滞胀问题的出现,令西方学者在新古典主义和凯恩斯主义之外另觅宏观理论的研究基础,由此掀起复兴马克思主义的经济学热.与强调实物经济技术关系分析的主流新古典理论不同,以资本主义货币经济之社会关系为分析线索的马克思经济学基于市场经济的竞争博弈规则,认为资本主义生产目的在于获取按货币价值计算的利润或货币增殖.在价值与剩余价值理论及其统一利润率的古典一般均衡基础上,马克思深刻剖析了资本主义再生产矛盾和利润率下降、有效需求及经济周期与危机等宏观经济问题.依据马克思经济学的研究视角,这些问题不仅可以通过由市场经济或现实资本主义经济关系决定的国民收入核算体系统计变量的性质体现,而且其发生发展及相互之间也必然存在各种联系,从而能够经由微观基础到宏观经济的逐层推理建立逻辑一致的理论体系进行论证和预测.这是马克思经济学科学阐释资本主义现实经济的重要内容,完全不同于"剑桥资本争论"揭示的存在一系列逻辑悖论的新古典经济学在排除真正市场竞争前提下所给予的错误阐释.     

国际贸易摩擦发生的理论诠释

伴随着国际贸易的增长,各国之间的贸易摩擦比以往有了明显的增加,并出现了许多新的特点。无论何种摩擦形式,其基本的理论根源就在于国际贸易利益的存在及其各国对贸易利益最大化的追求。当一国为了追求本国的贸易利益最大化,采取"以邻为壑"的贸易保护政策措施,或者一国采取的措施有悖于国际贸易的趋势框架时,国际贸易的摩擦则不可避免。各国应尽可能减少国际贸易摩擦的发生,合理规避国际贸易摩擦的风险。     

The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services

The main purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of various factors on bilateral services trade, relative to that on bilateral goods trade. To accomplish this purpose, using the standard gravity model, we ran regressions on bilateral services trade and goods trade between 10 OECD member countries and other economies (including OECD member and nonmember countries) for the years 1999 and 2000. One main and interesting result is that services trade is better predicted by gravity equations than goods trade. Another interesting result is that there is a complementary relationship between goods exports and services imports. JEL no. F10, F20, L51, F80     

对外贸易与技术扩散：一个文献综述

新增长理论表明,技术进步已成为影响一国经济增长的关键因素。而一国的技术进步不仅取决于本国的技术创新能力,对国外技术的模仿、吸收并再创新,也是一个重要渠道。随着各国对外贸易不断发展,越来越多的研究发现,国际贸易已经成为国际技术扩散的重要途径。文章主要综述基于国际贸易的技术进步效应及其影响因素,揭示该领域的研究状况,并做简要评介。     

论双边贸易研究中重力模型的距离因素

重力模型广泛应用于双边贸易的研究。然而,该模型的重要解释变量之一距离的定义却是学术界争议的焦点。通常,学术界使用“直线距离”作为运输成本的近似衡量标准。但是,这一近似衡量标准往往不能很好地反映重力模型中的“排斥力”因素。本文将对重力模型中几种距离的定义展开讨论,除直线距离外,本文还引入了实际距离(区分海运距离和陆运距离)。此外,综合运输网络密度对运输成本的影响,笔者进一步提出“调整距离”的概念。本文通过计量经济方法比较了各种距离概念在重力模型中作为“排斥力”衡量标准的优劣程度,对传统重力模型进行了改进。     

A Model of International Trade in Banking Services

Open Economies Review - This paper combines essential elements of the theory of intra-industry international trade with an imperfect-competition banking framework to develop a model of...     

国际垂直专业化分工与贸易:研究综述

国际垂直专业化是第二次经济全球化高潮的显著特征,国际分工与贸易的对象深入到工序层面,参与国的国民福利与收入分配以及世界贸易的性质、规模等都因此受到重要影响。对国际垂直专业化的研究使标准贸易理论的研究视野由产品间分工扩展到产品内分工,并且,产业组织与契约理论的相关概念被引入贸易模型,形成了新的分析框架。本文对该领域研究的内容、方法与结论做了归纳,就国际垂直专业化分工与贸易的基础和动因、程度度量以及经济效应分析三个方面的问题加以评述,并指明未来研究方向。     

Bilateral Trade Performance in West Africa: A Gravity Model Estimation

This study provides empirical insights on the functioning of regional trade agreements within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) by identifying bilateral trade barriers that affect the extent of trade flows among member countries. Also, it highlights some trade barrier indicators that are rarely covered in extant studies, such as the multilateral resistance term, the extent of trade complementarity, and the presence of economic integration agreements among ECOWAS member countries. We then provide augmented gravity model estimation on the determinants of bilateral trade in the region. We find, among other things, that trade complementarity had a positive and significant effect on bilateral trade within the sub‐region region. Other important determinants of intra‐regional trade include multilateral trade resistance and economic integration agreements — meaning that countries with some kind of agreement like the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) tend to trade more among themselves than other member countries.     

国际贸易产品污染转移的理论研究

各国国际分工、产业结构、能源利用效率以及贸易结构等方面的差异,必然造成国际贸易过程中存在污染排放转移问题。本文首先对国外学者对国际贸易产品污染转移的相关理论和实证研究文献进行了梳理,其次对学者对中国贸易品的污染转移研究文献进行总结。     

World Trade in Used Automobiles: A Gravity Analysis of Japanese and US Exports*

We estimate a gravity model of Japanese and US exports of used automobiles that incorporates an original, ordered measure of protection in global, used automobile markets. The model confirms that, overall, protection by our measure is suppress‐ive and often statistically significant and that what we term ‘Grubel income effects’ are present. However, Japanese export behavior appears to differ in some important respects from that of the USA, with distance and protection levels being less significant and left‐hand side driving patterns being a critical explanatory variable.     

New Borders and Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Analysis of the Baltic States

The objective of this paper is to provide evidence on the effects of an economic and political union by studying the trade flows of the three Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania after the breakup of the Soviet Union. We specify and estimate a gravity model of exports for the Nordic countries which enables us to determine the size and direction of trade flows in the Baltic states had they not been affected by the political institutions of the Soviet Union. Our results suggest that Baltic foreign trade was not only reduced significantly but also diverted to the members of the former Soviet Union. Consistent with our estimates, we also find that these consequences of the former political union are quickly dissipating, and the Baltic countries are increasing their share of exports to the European Union and the U.S.