商业银行流动性过剩成因考察

商业银行流动性过剩问题引起了社会广泛关注和许多研究.本文另辟蹊径,从商业银行成本收益角度出发,通过对银行体系在中央银行超额存款准备金和银行间市场人民币交易成交的情况进行考察,得出当前我国商业银行仍旧面临着流动性过剩问题.商业银行流动性过剩是2004年以后才在我国经济领域中明显展露出来的.文章系统考察了影响商业银行流动性过剩的因素,认为主要是三个方面的因素对商业银行流动性过剩产生作用:分业经营体制下存差规模快速扩大;国际收支"双顺差"持续出现;货币流通速度加快.     

金融危机救助方案与成本分担机制分析

各国政府应对本轮金融危机的救助虽取得一定成效,但仍然引发了关于救助方案的选择和救助成本等相关问题的探讨。英美等发达国家的救助基本遵循了依靠市场或私人机构进行救助,政府尽量不采取直接的干预,以减少政府救助成本。资产负债表重构这一救助方式能将救助成本分担到私人机构,在合适的条件下应用,可以降低救助道德风险发生的可能性,并且极大地减少政府的救助成本。     

金融危机下对我国中央银行金融稳定框架的反思

自从金融危机爆发以来,主要发达国家针对金融危机中暴露出来的金融稳定框架问题进行了一系列的探讨,同时对中央银行在金融稳定中的作用进行更进一步的总结.本文通过回顾近期主要发达国家在金融稳定方面采取的政策与措施,反思当前我国中央银行构建金融稳定框架存在的不足,并阐述未来我国金融稳定工作发展的趋势.     

浅论我国中央银行独立性

在世界金融危机的大背景下,研究我国中央银行的独立性具有重要的现实意义.本文从中央银行独立性的基本理论出发,重点分析了我国中央银行独立性的现状,并对如何完善中央银行独立性提出了建议.     

金融危机救助制度中的公共资金援助——美国次贷危机引发的法律思考

美国次贷危机的爆发波及全球金融市场,美国国会由此通过<2008年紧急经济稳定法案>,其背后所折射出的正是金融危机救助法律制度的基本问题:如何在维系整个金融业的稳定与避免产生道德风险之间找到平衡点.而公共资金援助则是金融危机救助法律制度中不可或缺的重整措施和制度安排.全文在比较分析欧芙等发达国家公共资金援助制度的基础上,从制度层面对公共资金救助制度进行了深入分析和探讨,并提出完善我国金融危机救助法律制度的具体建议.     

关于我国中央银行履行宏观审慎监管职能的原则及建议

金融危机爆发之后,欧美国家在不同程度上加强了中央银行宏观审慎监管职能.基于此,本文在对中央银行宏观审慎监管原则进行总结和概括的基础上提出了当前我国中央银行履行宏观审慎监管职能的建议     

日本金融监管的机构体系及现存问题

日本的金融监管体系主要包括三个方面的内容：通过金融监管维持金融机构资产的稳健性；为防范金融危机的发生而由中央银行充任最后贷款人职能；设立存款保险制度以保护款人的利益，以下将对日本负责金融业监管的各个部门分别进行考察。     

我国外汇储备的成本、收益及其分布状况研究

本文在分析外汇储备的来源后,对我国外汇储备的成本、收益及部门分布进行了测算,结果表明,外汇储备成本、收益分布非常不均,收益主要流入了外汇管理部门,而成本则由居民和商业银行承担.如果考虑居民和商业银行承担的成本,我国外汇储备成本高达764.9亿美元/年,相当于借入年利为7.2%的资产.最后,作者分析了高额外汇储备成本的挑战,并提出了相应的对策,包括改善国际收支不平衡状况、加大人民币升值的幅度与速度、试点建立外汇基金等.     

我国中央银行独立性分析

文章从央银行独立性发展背景出发,论述了我国中央银行的相对独立性,并对我国加强中央银行的独立性提出建议。目前,我国正面临世界金融危机的巨大冲击,国内经济受到了严重的冲击。由于我国的中央银行的独立性相对较弱,因此对中央银行独立性的研究更加具有现实意义。     

我国问题银行危机处置和市场退出机制研究

问题银行的市场退出是市场经济的必然要求,在欧美国家已形成较为成熟的模式。我国问题银行危机处置和市场退出尚未形成规范化的机制,不仅加大了银行机构的道德风险,也严重浪费了有限的公共资金的配置效率。市场退出机制的设计不仅需要考虑银行内部的成本和收益,也要考虑外部的成本和收益,重点解决风险识别、处置方式选择、注资救助成功预测、注资救助成本——收益分析、数据库建设和系统设计等关键性问题。我国问题银行危机处置和市场退出机制的建设仍需经历漫长的优化和发展之路。     

Beliefs, Bailouts and Spread of Bank Panics

This article highlights the spread of bank panics across countries, as the public reassesses governments' propensity to bailouts. Policymakers decide whether to save collapsing banking systems by weighing social costs of crises against the costs associated with raising taxes to finance rescue packages. Policymakers know those social costs of bank liquidation whereas the public does not. In this setup, financial crises may result from the public's self‐fulfilling prophecies about equilibrium outcomes, as lenders' expectations impinge on the taxation cost of bailouts. It follows that a banking crisis in a country leads creditors to reexamine policymakers' willingness to bailouts in other countries, which eventually makes their banks more vulnerable to self‐confirming depositors' runs.     

Regional bank efficiency and its effect on regional growth in “normal” and “bad” times

The financial crisis affected regions in Europe in a different magnitude. This is why we examine whether regions which incorporate banks with a higher intermediation quality grow faster in “normal” times and are more resilient in “bad” ones. For this purpose, we measure the intermediation quality of a bank by estimating its profit and cost efficiency while taking the changing banking environment after the financial crisis into account. Next, we aggregate the efficiencies of all banks within a NUTS 2 region to obtain a regional proxy for financial quality in twelve European countries. Our results show that relatively more profit efficient banks foster growth in their region. The link between financial quality and growth is valid in “normal” and in “bad” times. These results provide evidence to the importance of swiftly restoring bank profitability in euro area crisis countries through addressing high non-performing loans ratios and decisive actions on bank recapitalization.     

金融危机冲击与企业现金持有的动态调整

运用动态面板模型及系统GMM估计方法,得出不同财务特征的企业在解释现金持有及动态调整速度与成本方面的差异,发现金融危机会显著增加公司调整持有现金的成本。进一步分析显示,正常状况下公司进行现金调整的资金来源主要依靠银行贷款与经营性现金流量,但在金融危机冲击时,中国上市公司对银行融资性资金来源的依赖更为明显,这与我国以银行为主体的间接融资方式相一致。     

Performance and productivity in Islamic and conventional banks: Evidence from the global financial crisis

We assess the performance and productivity of Islamic and conventional banks using financial ratios, a two- and a four-component meta-frontier Malmquist productivity index (MPI). We focus on the relatively homogenous GCC region over the 2006–2012 period that covers the global financial crisis. We find that Islamic banks exhibit worse cost and profit performance but are on a par with regards to revenue performance compared to the conventional ones. The components of the meta-frontier MPI suggest that the technology of conventional banks improves markedly in years leading to the financial crisis and declines thereafter. Islamic banks show a similar but more muted pattern. By contrast, the pronounced within-Islamic bank group variation in technical efficiency and technology suggests that Islamic banks are quite heterogeneous as a group. Overall, the MPI analysis suggests that the two bank types are more aligned following the global financial crisis. Policy makers should be wary of the important variations within the Islamic banking industry when implementing bank regulations.     

A barrier option framework for rescue package designs and bank default risks

Rescue packages adopted to stabilize the banking system are generally divided into three categories: government purchases of distressed assets, government guaranteed debt issuance programs, and direct equity capital injections. Countries afflicted by the recent financial crisis launched general programs in one or two, and even in three different categories. In this paper, we examine that the design of a government rescue package for a distressed bank depends on the expected reduction of the default risk in the bank's equity returns. We find that the bank's default risk is negatively related to distressed loan purchases, and to capital injections, but positively related to guaranteed debt issuance. We also find that the rescue package including all three categories is not guaranteed to increase stability for the rescued bank. Specifically, the combination of distressed loan purchases and capital injections is superior to the package of the three categories in addition to the solo instrument. This suggests that an effective design of a government rescue package for the financial services industry largely depends on its targets.     

Monetary and fiscal coordination in preventing bank failures and financial contagion

This paper uses a theoretical model to analyze the optimal combination of monetary response (lowering of interest rates) and fiscal bailouts in preventing bank failures and financial contagion. I show that the optimal way of rescuing failing banks is to combine the two. This is because lower interest rates reduce the size of the bailout required to rescue failing banks as they reduce the cost for banks to raise and retain deposits. The main result of the paper is that banks are willing to monitor their investments more closely when they anticipate a monetary response in addition to bailouts in case of a banking crisis. Additionally, capital requirements such as the Basel Accords do not always incentivize banks to monitor their investments if there is a potential contagion from unhealthy to healthy banks.     

How does equity capital cost affect bank performance during a financial crisis?

This article theoretically examines how equity capital cost affects return performance and safety of a bank and how this effect varies across a financial crisis comparing to a normal time when the bank manager’s performance reveals the like of higher equity return and the dislike of higher equity risk. We derive two main results. First, an increase in the bank’s equity capital cost from an increase of the interest rate of the Federal funds results in a reduced loan risk-taking at an increased optimal bank interest margin, implying better bank performance. Second, by ignoring the dislike, we find that the better performance is reinforced during a financial crisis but is reduced during a normal time. Financial crises and the dislike preference as such contribute a relatively low return and the stability of banking activities.     

Anticipating individual bank rescues

We construct a structural model to determine the cost of a bank rescue. Moreover, our model can estimate the likelihood and timing of a bank rescue. With respect to bank characteristics, theoretical results in this paper show that a rescue is more likely when growth in cash flow is low, operational risk is high and costs are high. The empirical application of our model to an apparently homogeneous sample of countries generates reasonable estimates for the likelihood and costs of a bank rescue. However, our results also show that the optimal model specifications are independent of size, geographical proximity and cultural similarities.     

基于通胀压力分析政府救市政策的退出

在国际金融危机中,我国政府出台了大规模的救市计划以应对冲击.而在后金融危机时期,由于一些宏观经济因素发生变化,例如通货膨胀压力增大等,政府救市政策自然应逐步退出.笔者选择基于防范通货膨胀的视角来分析政府应如何选择最佳的救市政策退出方式,通过建立脉冲响应函数,分析金融危机中三类主要的政府救市政策即财政政策、货币政策和流动性政策对通货膨胀率的影响,并根据三类救市政策不同的影响力度和滞后期,判断其合理的退出方式.     

以金融生态环境建设来加强商业银行危机管理

生态环境恶化可能导致物种的灭绝或生物的变异,金融生态失衡则会加大商业银行发生危机的可能。商业银行与政府、企业等市场要素构成一个互相依赖的金融生态链。不断优化金融生态环境,是商业银行加强危机管理的重要内容,而化解商业银行危机也是改善金融生态的重要措施。既要对遭到破坏的生态环境进行修复,治理污染,更要通过新生力量的培育保持生态的平衡。这既需要商业银行自身的努力,更是一项带有全社会社会责任的系统工程。