政策信誉与人民币汇率政策信誉分析

汇率政策信誉是汇率导向的稳定政策达到预期目标的一个关键因素,人民币汇率稳定是我国当前汇率政策的主要目标.文章从政策信誉理论出发,利用一个新的理论模型模拟汇率政策信誉,并对当前人民币汇率政策的信誉进行分析,量化出汇率政策信誉指标值,得出人民币汇率政策具有良好的信誉,公众对人民币汇率的稳定充满信心的结论.     

宏观政策的性质、效应与“政策—制度”的演进逻辑

本文首先对政策期限与结构、政策组合与目标等宏观政策的性质与政策效应之间的关系进行理论分析,再以1998年中国应对亚洲金融危机中的政策表现作为典型案例来进行验证。在此基础上,对宏观政策组合、宏观调控制度与政策效应之间的关系进行分析,以揭示宏观调控"政策—制度"的演进逻辑,即向实现稳定的"短期+长期"政策效应转化。研究发现:以需求管理为主、供给管理为辅,以总量为主、结构性为辅的政策搭配与组合可以实现短期为主、长期为辅的最佳政策效应,应成为宏观政策组合在期限与结构上的最优选择。我国在长期的政策实践中已初步形成了这一政策优势,但还需将这一政策优势固化和定型为制度优势以持续地实现更高水平的供求动态平衡及总量与结构平衡。相较于西方主流理论对短期效应的偏好迎合其政党制度和选举周期,中国宏观调控则通过总量与结构的双轨并行实现了"短期+长期"的政策效应,这与政党性质与社会制度追求短期利益与长远利益相结合的目标相一致。     

企业会计政策选择与盈余管理研究

随着我国资本市场的发展,盈余管理问题也开始在我国出现。企业会计政策的选择是盈余管理的一种手段。根据盈余管理与会计政策之间的相关性,在对会计政策选择相关理论进行分析的基础上,就如何进行会计政策选择,规范上市公司盈余管理行为提出若干建议。     

我国森林限额采伐管理政策失灵分析

森林限额采伐管理是我国最主要的森林宏观调控政策,它对我国森林可持续发展影响重大。从现实来看,执行情况并不理想,超限额采伐现象屡见不鲜。本文从理论和实践两方面分析了森林限额采伐管理政策低效运行的原因,据此提出提高我国森林限额采伐管理政策有效性途径。     

全球金融危机对宏观经济理论和政策的新挑战

大的经济危机往往会激发经济学理论的创新。2008年全球金融危机中出现的新问题对宏观经济理论和政策形成了新挑战。本文对深度全球化背景下国与国之间宏观经济政策协调之难、"国家道德风险"的制约、价格稳定目标是否应当包括资产价格的稳定、央行如何有效监控和调节货币供应量、市场自由和政府干预的边界如何界定、收入和财富分配问题是否应该纳入宏观经济理论和政策视野等几个方面的挑战进行了梳理,并对未来研究方向进行初步探讨,旨在提出问题,推动宏观经济理论和政策研究的深入。     

浅谈我国宏观调控的政策效应

我国扩大内需的宏观调控政策效应不理想主要不是政策本身的原因,而是政策背后的市场基础与制度条件方面的问题.文章从宏观调控政策出发,解释中国宏观调控政策效应的理论框架,从理论上揭示了短期的总量稳定与长期的经济增长的关系,并提出正确地把握宏观调控政策的实施问题.     

国外上市公司股利政策的理论与实践

一、引言股利政策(D ividend Policy)是现代公司理财活动的三大核心之一。合理的股利政策,可以使公司获得长期、稳定的发展条件和机会;反之,不当的股利政策不仅无助于公司价值的提升,甚至还会使公司陷入财务困境,乃至破产倒闭。对这一问题进行探讨,具有深远的理论和现实意义。本文分别从国外股利政策的理论和实践两个方面分析了股利政策。二、国外股利政策理论的分析1.“在手之鸟”理论(Bird-in-the-hand Theory)。“在手之鸟”理论可以说是流行最广泛和最持久的股利理论。最初期表现为股利重要论,后经威廉斯(W illiam s,1938)、林特勒(L…     

高校《形势与政策》课程基本问题探析

加强《形势与政策》课程建设,是思想政治理论课建设的重要内容,是实现大学生形势政策教育规范化与制度化的基本途径与必然要求。长期的思想政治理论课程的开设实践,使《形势与政策》建成规范化课程的条件逐渐成熟。建设《形势与政策》课程,一要明确课程的性质与地位;二要构建相对稳定的知识体系;三要坚持正确的教学原则。     

碳排放配额政策的环境效应和贸易效应研究

基于不完全市场竞争理论,构建了两个对称国家碳排放配额政策选择与企业碳减排选择的两阶段博弈模型,运用逆向求解法求得了均衡解,并通过进一步分析碳排放许可证政策、碳排放配额许可交易政策和许可交易碳排放权合作政策的福利效应,得出了两国政府碳排放配额政策选择的激励相容条件和参与约束条件,确定了全局稳定均衡最优解及其条件;此外,还分析了两国政府碳排放许可证政策、碳排放配额许可交易政策和许可交易碳排放权合作政策的环境效应和贸易效应。结果表明：从福利效应来看,许可交易碳排放权合作政策是全局稳定最优解,可以资源的有效配置,实现Pareto改进;从环境效应来看,许可交易碳排放权合作政策也是严格占优的,有助于减少各国和全球净污染排放量;从贸易效应来看,碳排放配额许可交易政策好于许可交易碳排放权合作政策。因此,北-北型对称国家会优先选择许可交易碳排放权合作政策,南一南型对称国家在一定时期内仍然会优先选择碳排放配额许可交易政策,南-南或北-北型对称国家之间容易实现碳排放政策合作,实现全球环境合作还有待时日。     

创新政策组合：研究述评与未来展望

创新政策组合是当前政策研究领域的热点问题，已经得到越来越多学者的关注。通过梳理国内外创新政策组合相关研究文献，阐述政策组合概念起源和内涵，对政策组合文献的发文数量、重要文献等进行统计和分析。在此基础上，进一步厘清创新政策组合的发展脉络及理论框架，并从政策组合的维度、要素、过程和特征4个方面分析创新政策组合研究现状。最后，针对现有研究不足，提出未来研究方向，为进一步拓展该领域研究提供理论基础和知识储备。     

中国货币政策的区域经济稳定效应分析——基于2000-2008年省份月度数据的实证研究

文章基于TVP-GARCH模型构建货币政策反应函数,利用时变参数模型构建包含货币政策变量的省份宏观经济波动模型,发现货币政策对各省份经济的稳定性作用并不明显,可预期的货币政策的省份稳定效应高于不可预期的货币政策,而经济冲击和货币政策制定层面引发的货币增长的不确定性,加大了省份经济波动;货币政策的经济稳定能力存在明显的省份差异,和经济周期同步性以及货币、信用和汇率三个传导渠道的省份特征密切相关。     

Monetary and Fiscal Management, Finance, and Growth

This paper addresses three related aspects of monetary and fiscal management in Europe and elsewhere. First, I discuss the implications of economic integration for monetary and fiscal policy, especially the narrow focus on low inflation as the main objective of monetary policy. I argue that because inflation springs from several sources, monetary authorities held responsible by law for maintaining low inflation need to exercise their newfound independence by reserving the right to address all sources of inflation. In this context, I also ponder the question as to whether the increased independence of fiscal policy from short-term political interference would be desirable. Second, I present new empirical evidence of the relationship between inflation, finance, and economic growth across countries, arguing that long-run growth considerations provide an important additional justification for why price stability ought to remain a priority of independent policy makers. Third, I review some further aspects of the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth, emphasizing the traditional three-pronged role of fiscal management: stabilization, allocation, and distribution, all of which can be conducive to growth. The argument leads to the conclusion that only the stabilization function of fiscal policy and, perhaps, some aspects of the allocation function as well could be usefully delegated in an attempt to immunize them from shortsighted and socially counter-productive political interference, but not the distribution function.     

Unconventional monetary policy,liquidity trap,and asset prices

This article offers a fundamental critique of monetary policy implemented in the United States following the 2007–8 global financial crisis. It aims to show that the misunderstanding of the mainstream theoretical thinking underlying monetary policy actions led to the ineffectiveness of the policy response to the 2007–8 global financial crisis. The conventional view that monetary policy is the stabilization tool has serious flaws and is ineffective for bringing about economic recovery. The Federal Reserve’s experiment with the so-called unconventional monetary policy exposed the weakness of the conventional belief in understanding how banks operate, how the monetary authority can influence the yield curve, and how the monetary transmission mechanism works, resulting in prescribing an ineffective treatment to boost economic activity. In this regard, it is argued that the Federal Reserve’s decision to let long-term interest rates be market determined represents a significant self-imposed constraint, which limits policy options regarding monetary policy actions and the effective control of long-term interest rates. By limiting the setting of policy rates only to the overnight interest rate, the ability of the monetary authority to influence long-term interest rates is both weak and indirect.     

Optimal Degrees of Transparency in Monetary Policymaking

According to most academics and policymakers, transparency in monetary policymaking is desirable. I examine this proposition in a small theoretical model emphasizing forward–looking private sector behavior. Transparency makes it easier for price setters to infer the central bank's future policy intentions, thereby making current inflation more responsive to policy actions. This induces the central bank to pay more attention to inflation rather than output gap stabilization. Then, transparency may be disadvantageous. It may actually be a policy–distorting straitjacket if the central bank enjoys low–inflation credibility, and there is need for active monetary stabilization policy.
JEL classification : E 42; E 52; F 58     

碳税政策效应理论研究评述

本文对国外有关碳税政策效应的理论研究进行了系统的回顾和梳理,分析了碳税的环境效应、经济效应、分配效应和福利效应,并比较了碳税与能源税、排污许可证交易制度在碳减排效果和政策成本方面的区别。本文分析表明,中国要实施碳税应充分借鉴国际经验和现有研究成果,并要结合我国经济社会的发展状况,作出进一步的理论分析与实证研究。碳税政策的制定,既要考虑自身的多重效应,又要仔细分析它与其他政策工具之间的相互影响。     

Vested Interests and the Common Man as Seen Through Monetary and Fiscal Policy: Flooding Wall Street or Main Street?

There are many angles through which a critical observer can analyze the divergent class interests in most aspects of macroeconomic management. We examine the insistence of financial authorities of all major economies on reviving economic activity through monetary — and not fiscal — policy as a particularly clear example of favoring vested interests over the interests of the common man. Nearly a century after Thorstein Veblen wrote on the subject, one can find many parallel elements to the political landscape of the times. Today, the common man is often expressed by the “99%,” and many accept that the dominant vested interest is that of global banks. Unlike in Veblen’s times, economists today have many historical experiments in economic management that they can consult. By employing logic, historical experience, and an understanding of our current global finance-led capitalism, we offer a preliminary institutionalist analysis of the mechanisms of current monetary policy that “flood” Wall Street, while leaving employment, production, and investment — Main Street — all but forgotten. We then explain how vested interests have abandoned fiscal policy and left a deflationary macroeconomic environment.     

Managing real exchange rate for economic growth: Empirical evidences from developing countries

Abstract

This article analyses macroeconomic policies capable of influencing the long-run real exchange rate (RER). In this vein, it identifies economic policy tools that can devalue RER, covering a theoretical issue neglected by the economic literature, which argues that competitive exchange rate enhances growth. After discussing the “Trilemma,” we identify those variables that could affect RER without constraining monetary policy or exchange rate regime choice. In what follows, we model the probability of achieving an undervalued (small or large) RER for a sample of 14 developing countries from 1980 to 2010 (30?years) by applying econometric techniques for discrete choice and censored data. Afterwards, we compare the results for Latin American nations with Asian ones. They suggest that competitive exchange rate requires different approaches depending on the region. Moreover, Latin American countries need to take on additional policies so that interventions in the foreign exchange market become effective.     

促进绿色经济的最优政策模型

发展绿色经济,既是中国经济社会可持续发展的必然选择,也是应对未来可能日益增多的国际环境问题矛盾的迫切要求.政府促进绿色经济政策工具可分为管制性和经济引导性两类.管制性政策的弹性小,有效成本巨大,而经济引导性能够促进关联者自发行动,是主要考虑对象.目前我国绿色经济政策的参数多为主观判断,缺乏定量化手段.以stackelberg模型作为理论基础来构建博弈模型,可以分析绿色产业链条的责任者和辅助者与政府政策之间的互动,得出最优征罚率与最优补贴率,从而为制定促进绿色经济发展的最优经济引导性政策提供建议.     

Asymmetric Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union

We analyze the conduct of monetary policy in a currency union in the face of asymmetric shocks. In particular, we compare the stabilization properties of a currency union versus alternative exchange rate arrangements. The relative performance of a currency union is shown to depend on the extent of economic integration in patterns of consumption and production and on the relative weights placed on price stability versus employment stability in the monetary authority's objective function.
JEL classification : F 33; F 40     

货币政策有所不为才能有所为

通过货币政策作用于经济增长的理论分析和实践考察,认为应该放弃“货币政策无所不能”的思想,对货币政策的效果期望不能过多,在战略上应“有所不为”,以稳定货币为目标;而在战术上则应“有所为”,实行中性的货币政策操作方式。