Trade barriers in East and South East Asia: the implications for retailers

Many countries in East and South East Asia have erected trade barriers at various times since 1945. Many retail markets have therefore been closed to outside influence and investment. In the 1990s however such measures are being reversed and markets in East and South East Asia are becoming increasingly open. This openness is both a willing embrace of outside investment and a less willing acceptance of external pressures. This paper reviews the changes taking place and concludes that those retailers taking advantage of the opportunities are faced with a variety of problems. Indeed, it would seem that the removal of international trade barriers simply leads to their replacement with more difficult domestic market policies.     

东亚经济一体化的贸易与投资效应

20世纪80年代以来,东亚区域(10+3)经济一体化取得长足的进展,经济区域化给东亚地区带来显著的经济绩效。文章根据区域经济一体化理论,深入地分析了东亚经济区域化带来的区域内贸易和投资效应,并通过计量模型对东亚地区的FDI与贸易的关系进行了检验,发现在东亚FDI与进口和出口都是互补关系,即FDI促进了东亚地区的贸易发展。     

东亚区域内贸易扩张的因素分析

文章对近10年来东亚区域内贸易扩张的程度及其影响因素进行了实证分析,探讨东亚区域内贸易扩张的本质及其变动规律,为进一步的区域经济合作提供相应的依据。并通过多重指标、贸易矩阵和按广义商品分类的产品构成考察了东亚区域内贸易扩张的演进与特征,继而用贸易流量模型分析了各国／地区贸易扩张的影响因素及对区域贸易增长的贡献,最后提出政策建议。     

The myth of a de facto Asian economic bloc: Japan's foreign direct investment in East Asia

Asia has not been left out of the furor surrounding regional trading blocs. The worlds current fear is that, soon, the EC and NAFTA might well be joined by an “AFTA” (Asian Free Trade Area) that would further insulate Asian markets from the rest of the world. Graham and Anzai debunk the myth of Japan's overwhelming investment in the region and identify what they find more disturbing: the future problems Japan could have as a result of the yen's continued overvaluation and its effect on reduced manufacturing in Japan. Perhaps Japan is becoming less competitive, and a little more like everyone else.     

Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Because many authors have proposed stimulating the ailing Japanese economy by monetary expansion and yen depreciation, we explore the repercussions of depreciating the yen against the dollar on the other East Asian economies – which largely peg to the dollar. Since 1980, economic integration among Japan's neighbours – China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand – has intensified and (except for China and Singapore) their business cycles have been highly synchronised. These cycles have been closely linked to fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate – through changes in the export competitiveness, inflows of foreign direct investment and intra‐Asian income effects. We show that a major yen devaluation would have a negative impact on incomes in other East Asian economies and that it is not a sensible policy option for Japan.     

东亚各国(地区)承接生产者服务外包的竞争力研究

20世纪90年代"东亚奇迹"模式使经济发展水平各异的东亚经济体实现了不同程度的经济增长和产业结构升级,在以零部件贸易为代表的生产网络框架下东亚地区生产者服务贸易呈现出快速增长的趋势,本文认为东亚生产者服务贸易增长因素主要体现在生产服务链接需求、产业结构升级需求以及东亚地区的促进政策等方面,在此基础上,本文利用贸易相似度指标和面板回归分析方法研究了不同的生产者服务行业中东亚承接服务外包的竞争力状况,结果表明东亚地区的生产者服务业已呈现出类似于制造业转移的特征:继制造业后美国和日本等较为先进的生产者服务提供国继续带动了东亚区域服务业结构升级。     

双边贸易的本地市场效应——基于东亚地区制造业部门的实证研究

本文基于2000-2006年东亚地区主要经济体间的双边贸易数据,研究并检验了该地区制造业部门双边贸易的本地市场效应。结果发现:东亚地区制造业部门的双边贸易整体上并不存在本地市场效应,只有个别行业表现出了显著的本地市场效应;而由相对要素禀赋条件和人均GDP所决定的传统比较优势因素对该地区制造业贸易模式的决定和影响仍是非常重要;此外,我们还发现劳动密集型产品是东亚地区制造业部门双边贸易的主要产品,必需品又是其中的主导消费部门。     

日本贸易政策评审

<正> 除金融管理方面,日本的贸易政策自1998年以来基本上没有大的改变。日本贸易政策的重心是加强多边贸易体系。日本承诺继续减少贸易限制并提高贸易政策透明度。日本内阁于2000年4月通过了关于行业放松管制三年计划的修正案,所涉及行业包括:金融服务、电信、能源、交通和物流。内     

东亚双边进口贸易流量与潜力:基于贸易引力模型的实证研究

本文利用东亚10个主要经济体1995-2004年的面板数据,建立东亚贸易引力模型,对东亚进口贸易流量的影响因素和潜力进行研究。研究显示,国家经济规模、中国-东盟自由贸易区、东盟自由贸易区、进口国制度、国际直接投资、国家间的经济水平差距和地理距离是东亚双边进口贸易流量的主要影响因素。中国香港、泰国、日本和印度尼西亚对东亚的进口潜力较大,中国、马来西亚、菲律宾和新加坡对东亚的进口潜力较小。加强东亚区域内最终产品市场和区域贸易合作的发展、推进东亚各经济体的制度改革和调整、积极合理地引进国际直接投资、加强物流建设与合作,应成为东亚各经济体未来重要的政策取向。     

东亚区域内贸易的发展趋势及面临的问题

东亚区域内贸易飞速发展是当今世界经济两大潮流——经济全球化和区域经济一体化趋势下的一个独特现象,已经引起学者们的广泛关注,纷纷对其作出大量研究。东亚区域内贸易未来发展面临的主要问题是东亚经济体间存在多种冲突;贸易摩擦问题不断;区域货币金融合作进展缓慢。     

Trade Logistics in Developing Countries: The Case of the Middle East and North Africa

This paper presents an analysis of obstacles facing exporting firms in developing countries by diagnosing the efficiency of trade logistics in the Middle East and North Africa region (MNA). Using logistics chain analysis for six export commodities, it presents evidence that transport and non‐transport logistics costs for export commodities from the MNA region are quite substantial, ranging from 7–25 per cent of landed product prices. Underlying these costs are key bottlenecks identified as: inefficient trucking and transport services, low export volume leading to long shipping times and the need for costly inventory accumulation, aggressive, obstructive customs authorities and procedures, low and inconsistent product quality, an underdeveloped transport intermediary sector, inefficient cross‐border transit procedures and others. Recommended actions to address developing a national transport policy, overhauling the regulatory regime for the trucking sector, export promotion measures, increasing competition in port and air freight services, reorienting customs authorities towards trade facilitation and developing cross‐border transit procedures similar to the TIR Carnets model.     

Marginal Intra-Industry Trade: The Case of Jamaica's Trade with CARICOM

Of the dearth of empirical studies on marginal intra-industry trade, there is a relative paucity of empirical evidence involving developing countries. The major contribution of this article is two-fold: Firstly, it measures to our knowledge for the first time the extent of Jamaica's marginal intra-industry trade with CARICOM. This study is warranted bearing in mind that Jamaica's involvement in recent integration efforts with CARICOM will have adjustment costs implications. Secondly, we compare the performance of various Jamaican export sectors with their CARICOM counterparts. The article concludes by proposing some recommendations for policy makers to ensure smoother functioning of the Jamaican labour market.     

我国与东亚区域内贸易及经济周期的协动性研究

20世纪中期以来,东亚区域内贸易联系日趋紧密。与此同时,该区域内各国(地区)的经济周期也出现了明显的协动现象,区域经济周期初露端倪。本文在分析国际经济周期贸易传导机理的基础上,考察了我国与东亚主要贸易伙伴间的贸易流动对经济周期协动性(co-movement)的影响。研究发现:尽管区域经济周期的形成有多种原因。但东亚区域内贸易对区域经济周期的形成有重要的影响;我国与东亚区域各贸易伙伴的经济周期协动性将随着相互间贸易联系的增强而趋于明显。     

东亚三角形国际分工网络的演变及趋向——以纺织服装产业为例的分析

东亚与欧美的纺织品与服装贸易最初只有两方参与,随着产业向更低工资水平的地区转移,逐渐形成了三角形的生产贸易关系与国际分工网络。随着欧美订户不断追求靠近供应商,更多的通过中间商的间接转口贸易被直接贸易取代。东亚与欧美的纺织品与服装生产贸易模式呈现出两角——三角——两角的发展轨迹。     

东亚地区产业内贸易的发展状况——G-L指数及发展原因分析

近年来,东亚地区产业内贸易发展十分迅速。本文对东亚10个主要经济体1992-2005年的产业内贸易发展状况进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,产业内贸易已经成为东亚地区的主要贸易形式。在各类产品中,机械和运输设备(SITC7)的产业内贸易程度最高,且提高最快。产业内贸易发展的原因在于东亚地区产业内分工的不断深化以及基于生产环节专业化分工的产品零部件贸易的迅速发展。     

Trade and Financial Integration in East Asia: Effects on Co‐movements

In this paper we explore three important areas where deeper trade and financial integration in East Asia can influence: (1) business cycle co‐movements in the region, (2) the extent of risk sharing across countries and (3) price co‐movements across countries. We find evidence that trade integration enhances co‐movements of output but not of consumption across countries. Especially the fact that trade integration does not raise co‐movements of consumption as much as that of output is interpreted as trade integration does not improve the extent of risk sharing. Co‐movements of price arise most significantly as trade integration deepens, lowering the border effects and allowing better opportunities for resource reallocation across countries. In contrast, financial integration demonstrates much weaker evidence of enhancing co‐movements across countries. Deeper financial integration improves price co‐movements weakly but does not enhance output or consumption co‐movements at all. However, since the current level of financial integration in East Asia is quite low, our evidence is too early to firmly determine the role of financial integration.