Tobin's q ratio,monopoly earnings,risk, and dividend policy

Inherently nonlinear functional relationships between Tobin's q ratio of market value to replacement cost and financial variables of the firm are developed and estimated. Statistical significance and material importance of returns on equity and dividend payout ratios are established, but systematic risk does not appear to provide significant explanation of differences in equilibrium q values for a sample of 97 firms.     

国有经济、政治均衡与行业间的工资差距

本文从政治经济学的角度探讨了1998年后中国的垄断性部门与竞争性部门间的工资差距不断扩大的原因.1998年前,国有企业同时控制着垄断性部门和竞争性部门,为了平衡两个部门的利益,政府限制了垄断性部门的价格和利润;而在1998年后,国有企业基本退出了竞争性部门,政府偏袒垄断性部门,放松了对其的定价限制.在垄断性部门的定价水平高于边际成本的条件下,两部门之间的工资差距随着竞争性部门占整体经济的比重提高而扩大.实证结果表明,这一关系只存在于1998年之后.     

金融合约中贷款规模及其金融合约特征

在非对称信息下的信贷市场里,贷款规模成为降低逆向选择效应、甄别借款者类型的一个重要的筛选工具和战略变量;本文分析了仅有贷款规模和利率为菜单的最优合约特征,同时也考察了在解决贷后道德风险即对低收入报告进行稽核中,贷款规模是如何影响借款者支付,并认为贷款规模的增加提高了贷款者随机稽核的概率,从而在博弈均衡处表现为投资过度的特征.     

金融服务业BPO的非系统性风险分析与管理

金融服务业的发展体现出强化核心业务,发展外包业务的明显特征。分析国内外金融机构BPO模式现状,实施BPO面临的主要风险为宏观风险、行业风险和金融机构风险。其中金融机构风险是非系统性风险,也是金融BPO业务中的主要风险。包括:战略风险、决策风险、声誉风险、合规风险、操作风险、退包风险、信用风险、履约风险、人力风险、财务风险、合同风险。运用风险规避、风险度量、内部控制、外部监管等方法进行管理。     

Financial Sector Volatility,Banking Market Structure and Exports

This paper assesses the impacts of financial sector volatility and banking market structure on industrial exports. By utilising the specification of Rajan and Zingales (American Economic Review 1998; 88 , 559) on the cross‐country, cross‐industry data from Manova (Journal of International Economics 2008; 76 , 33), we find that financial sector volatility, measured as the standard deviation of the growth of private credit, and banking market structure, measured as the share of the three largest banks’ assets in a country, respectively exert significantly negative and positive impacts on industrial exports, particularly for those industries that are more externally financially dependent. The findings are robust to a variety of kinds of sensitivity analysis and thus lend support to the notion that a more stable and concentrated banking system is important to the exports of those industries that rely more on external finance.     

金融部门人力资本配置与实体企业金融资产投资

在实体经济“冷”与虚拟经济“热”的大背景下,中国实体企业投资于金融资产的比例快速提升,经济金融化格局正在加速形成。本文试图从金融部门的人力资本配置视角对实体企业金融资产配置的形成逻辑进行诠释。本文以人均受教育年限来衡量金融部门的人力资本配置,采用2008年经济普查微观数据库的数据构造地级市层面的度量指标,并匹配至2009—2018年非金融类上市公司进行实证检验。计量结果显示,金融部门的人力资本水平越高,实体企业金融资产配置越多,且该效应在信息不对称企业中尤为显著。进一步的机制检验发现,在金融部门人力资本提高的条件下,实体企业债务期限显著缩短,具体表现为短期负债增加而长期负债减少。本文研究结论表明,人力资本偏向金融部门增强了其在信贷合约中的市场势力,信贷供给短期化是实体企业金融化的重要原因之一。     

Optimal Utilization of Capital and a Financial Sector in a Classical Gravitation Process

In a production price framework, a two‐sectoral gravitation process with cross‐over adjustments of prices and quantities is advanced. To overcome an inconsistency in the treatment of fixed capital in disequilibrium, the socio‐technological input coefficients are assumed to vary with the sectoral output–capital ratio, such that for each relative price there exists an optimal degree of capital utilization which maximizes the sectoral rate of profit. Production prices prevail if these maximizing rates of profit are equalized. In addition, a financial sector determining the rate of interest is incorporated into the model. The mathematical analysis establishes a broad scope for local stability of the long‐run equilibrium position once a condition applies that ensures stability of the output adjustments in the short period.     

Toward a Model of Word-of-Mouth in the Health Care Sector

An important source of health information is word of mouth (WOM). Nevertheless, a model describing WOM in the health care sector does not exist. The aim of this paper is to contribute to research by providing concrete suggestions for a model of word of mouth in the health care sector. A conceptual framework comprising the theory of cognitive dissonance, the theory of the strength of weak ties, and the theory of perceived risk are used as a theoretical anchor. In order to gain a more precise knowledge of WOM in the health care sector, a literature review of leading health care journals is conducted. The findings are summarized in the form of a model proposal describing the creation, spread, and impact of WOM in the health care sector. As the model summarizes the current WOM literature, it seems to be a good starting point for further research by scholars. The paper also helps practitioners to better understand WOM and integrate the WOM aspects described into their daily work.     

Information Sharing and Financial Sector Development in Africa

This study investigates the effect information sharing has on financial sector development in 53 African countries for the period 2004 to 2011. Information sharing is measured with private credit bureaus and public credit registries. Hitherto unexplored dimensions of financial sector development are employed, namely: financial sector dynamics of formalization, informalization, and non-formalization. The empirical evidence is based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The following findings are established. Information-sharing bureaus increase (reduce) formal (informal/non-formal) financial sector development. In order to ensure that information-sharing bureaus improve (decrease) formal (informal/non-formal) financial development, public credit registries should have between 45.45 and 50% coverage while private credit bureaus should have at least 26.25% coverage.     

Determinants of the Low SME Loan Approval Rate in Croatia

The paper proposes a new methodological framework for investigating consistency in loan assessment decisions and determinants of loan approval based on structural equation modelling and covariance structure analysis. We focus on a governmental SME loan programme in Croatia and investigate possible reasons for low loan approval rate that occurred in spite of interest rates subsidisation and sufficient supply of the loan funds. The novelty of the methodological approach taken is that it enables simultaneous investigation of the determinants of the loan approval and testing for consistency in the loan assessment decisions, which need not be assumed. We test several hypotheses about consistency in the loan approval decisions and lending preferences in Croatia. The empirical findings reject overall consistency of criteria but indicate a preference toward smaller loans. Among all SME loan requests, banks preferred smaller firms that requested smaller loans. The results suggest that individual banks differ in their criteria and in their loan-size preferences and that there is no positive correlation between the bank’s size and its loan-size preference.     

Technical Change and the Equilibrium Profit Rate in a Market with Sequential Bargaining

The Marxian theory of the tendentially falling rate of profit is shown to be consistent with a competitive equilibrium scenario for labor markets in which wages are determined by sequential bargaining within a stationary matching process. The central result establishes that if trade is possible, there exists a set of individually rational capital-using, labor-saving technical innovations which lower the equilibrium rate of profit if adopted universally. The model yields as an important special case wage conditions under which the universal adoption of any such innovation reduces the equilibrium rate of profit.     

基于货币购买力的人民币均衡汇率理论模型与汇率失调测算

为了测算人民币均衡汇率,本文在购买力平价理论的基础上建立均衡汇率理论模型,该模型回归货币购买力的本质,克服了在经济发展水平不同国家之间选取可比较一篮子商品的困难。经对人民币均衡汇率及失调状况的实证检验发现:2005-2010年间人民币兑美元汇率,除2007年、2008年基本处于均衡状态外,其他年份均被高估;2012-2014年间,人民币兑美元汇率一直被低估,只是各年的低估幅度不同;2015年人民币兑美元汇率被高估。人民币兑美元名义汇率的均值相对于实际汇率的均值在总体上被高估28.03%,名义汇率在中长期存在贬值趋势。人民币兑美元实际汇率的各年度变化幅度在两国产出水平变动幅度小于ΔM2变动幅度时,主要受ΔM2的变动影响。以上结论对央行对外汇市场进行干预提供了一定的参考依据。     

论金融发展的资本部门分配机制

金融发展是通过优化资本在部门间的分配来促进经济增长的,故研究金融发展的资本部门分配功能,是金融发展理论的重要内容。金融结构论认为金融发展可以促进资本部门分配的结构改善,金融深化论认为金融发展强化资本部门分配的成本收益比较机制,内生金融发展理论则认为内生金融发展是金融优化资本部门分配的根本动力。     

Merger as a Trigger for Cultural Change in the Retail Financial Services Sector

As providers of financial services aim to reduce costs and satisfy increasingly articulate customers, growth through acquisition or merger appears to provide them with the means to achieve these objectives. A significant aspect of merger is the legacy of cultural integration and the literature is replete with examples of mergers where cultural matters have been poorly managed. This paper argues that merging institutions may find that by matching cultural developments to the dynamics of the environment, significant competitive advantage can be gained. Far from creating dysfunctional turbulence, merger activity might instead provide the necessary trigger to stimulate cultural change.Financial service providers and other merging institutions are advised to extend their horizons beyond achieving, smooth integration to instilling a culture more in tune with the dynamics of the marketplace.     

Currency Prices, the Nominal Exchange Rate, and Security Prices in a Two‐Country Dynamic Monetary Equilibrium

This paper examines a continuous‐time two‐country dynamic monetary equilibrium in which countries with possibly heterogeneous tastes and endowments hold their own money for the purpose of transaction services formulated via money in the utility function. Given a price system, no‐arbitrage pricing results are provided for the price of each money and the nominal exchange rate. Characterizations are provided for equilibrium prices for general time‐additive preferences and non‐Markovian exogenous processes. Under a Markovian structure of model primitives, the currency prices are shown to solve a bivariate system of partial differential equations. Assuming that each country is endowed with heterogeneous separable power utility and the exogenous quantities all follow geometric Brownian motions, an equilibrium is shown to exist and additional characterization is provided. A further example of nonseparable Cobb–Douglas preferences is investigated. The additional features over the customary environment of homogeneous logarithmic preferences are emphasized.     

中国小额信贷的利率探析

小额信贷作为一种有组织的交易行为 ,近年来在我国扶贫系统进行了试点 ,并取得了一定的成绩。但小额信贷能否推广 ;能否帮助贫困地区解决资金缺乏的障碍 ,关键是能否制定补偿成本的利率 ,实践验证小额利息率对小额信贷的持续发展具有重要作用。影响小额信贷利率水平有诸多的影响因素 ,目前采用三种测算方法可作为确定小额信贷同利率的科学依据。     

汇率波动、金融结构与技术创新

随着全球经济不确定性的上升,我国"创新驱动发展"战略的实施面临诸多挑战,金融供给侧结构性改革作为激发新动能的重要路径选择,备受各界关注。本文将金融结构的异质性纳入分析框架,系统考察了汇率波动与一国技术创新水平之间的关系。研究发现:汇率波动对一国技术创新具有显著的抑制作用,并且对发展中国家的负向冲击大于发达国家;汇率波动对一国技术创新负向冲击的影响随着技术创新分位点的上升而逐渐减小,2008年金融危机的爆发放大了汇率波动对一国技术创新水平的抑制作用。机制检验发现,国家风险触发效应和研发投入冲击效应是汇率波动影响一国技术创新水平的重要渠道。此外,引入金融结构指标研究发现,相较于银行主导型,市场主导型金融结构更有助于缓解汇率波动对一国技术创新的负向冲击,并且金融结构存在门限效应,跨过门限值调节作用将大大增强。