货币政策冲击、融资约束与公司现金持有——兼论货币政策对房地产市场的有效性

基于融资约束理论的分析发现,房地产公司的现金持有与现金流量、货币供给正相关.因此,鉴于货币政策对中国房地产上市公司影响的复杂性,必须将其与其它调控措施更加紧密地协调以形成合力,才能对房地产市场实施有效管理.     

The Monetary Policy Model

Most monetary economists today conduct their analysis within some version of a rational expectations model. A well-defined equilibrium in such a model requires that the private sector understand policy goals and the policymakers' model of the economy. An austere version of the model, with no information asymmetries, is valid only to a first approximation but nevertheless provides core insights to short- and long-run monetary policy. In this model, effective policy requires clarity of policy goals and clarity of the policy model as to how the economy works. The central bank must enjoy sustained credibility in the markets. Communication should focus on policy fundamentals and the monetary authorities’ understanding of the economy, both of which are enhanced by continued research by monetary policy experts. JEL Classification E5     

The Depoliticization of Monetary Policy

In the past thirty years, it has been claimed that Republicans tend to favor relatively restrictive monetary policy while Democrats favor relatively accommodative monetary policy. Another claim is that, regardless of which political party is in power, monetary policy tends to be relatively restrictive during the first two years of an administration and relatively accommodative during its final two years. The present paper finds an absence of empirical evidence supporting either claim by restricting the sample period to the past quarter century (1982–2006). The depoliticization of monetary policy decisions probably reflects, among other factors, both the post-1970s new-Keynesian consensus in macroeconomic theory and the realization of political independence of the Federal Reserve System during the Volcker-Greenspan years. Editor’s note: After this article was submitted and accepted for publication by Business Economics, Mr. Tempelman took a position with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The views expressed are strictly those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.     

货币政策传导机制与我国货币政策效力分析

货币政策传导机制主要有:信贷配给渠道、传统利率渠道、汇率渠道、资产价格渠道和心理预期渠道。通过实证研究,在我国务渠道发挥作用与西方不同,但货币政策传导效力是明显的。我国货币政策传导机制尚不完善,还应构造新体系。     

论我国银行不良资产对货币政策有效性的影响

目前关于我国银行不良资产问题,人们更多是从金融风险角度来讨论其成因及化解等问题,而对于银行不良资产对货币政策有效性的影响则缺乏深入研究.从宏观经济总量角度看,我国银行不良资产的存在使市场化改革中的商业银行经营行为发生了变异,相应使商业银行作为主要传导中介的货币政策的实施效果受到严重影响和弱化.提高我国货币政策的有效性,强化宏观金融的调控效率,应充分考虑巨额银行不良资产所产生的消极影响,并采取相应的对策.     

金融结构差异与货币政策的区域效应

我国实行的主要是总量调控的货币政策,而忽视了金融结构的差异。在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上,文章从金融结构差异的角度,结合我国中部六省金融发展的实际状况,分析了货币政策的区域效应。结果表明:中部六省存在货币政策的区域效应,而且各省存在一定的特点,其原因主要是资本市场的完善程度的差异。文章认为,为促进中部六省经济协调发展,可以考虑在中部地区建立区域证券交易中心。     

货币政策量价工具的房地产市场效应分析

基于国房景气指数对中国房地产市场进行收缩期和扩张期划分,据此运用SV-TVP-FAVAR模型分析中国货币政策对不同阶段房地产市场发展的动态调控效应.结果表明:房地产市场的阶段性特征较好地印证了中国宏观经济的基本面特征及房地产市场的政策颁布和落实情况,但也存在房地产市场响应的理性毗邻错位现象;无论是房地产市场收缩期抑或是房地产市场扩张期,数量型货币政策的调控效果均优于价格型货币政策,存在房地产市场调控多指标占优选择,但货币政策量价工具的房地产市场调控效果差距不大;价格型工具的房地产市场调控效果逐步优于数量型工具,其调控地位正在逐步凸显.     

中国货币政策非对称效应分析

经典的货币政策非对称效应意味着相同程度紧缩性货币政策效果显著强于扩张性货币政策,本文通过构建四类货币供给方程全面测度中国货币政策冲击,藉此验证货币政策非对称效应的存在性及表现形式。研究表明中国货币政策存在显著的非对称效应,当期正向货币冲击对产出的影响力度大于负向货币冲击对产出的影响力度;但滞后两期和四期负向货币冲击对产出的影响力度则分别大于相应滞后期的正向货币冲击的影响力度;考虑货币政策发挥作用的整个时段,紧缩性货币政策比扩张性货币政策更为有效。     

开放经济条件下我国货币政策目标

在经济金融对外开放条件下,我国货币政策面临来自国外更多的机遇与挑战。为确保货币政策对我国经济金融的有效调控,必须研究新形势下货币政策各目标之间的相互关系,弄清楚各目标之间产生矛盾的原因,然后在现实基础上对我国传统的货币政策目标进行取舍。     

异质性预期下宏观审慎政策与货币政策的协调效应

本文在新凯恩斯DSGE模型中引入基于Agent的计算经济学的建模思想,构建了基于Agent的DSGE模型,从社会福利的角度探讨宏观审慎政策效应及其与货币政策的配合策略.研究发现:基于Agent的DSGE模型中,产出与通货膨胀对货币政策冲击的反应较“传统新凯恩斯DSGE模型”平缓,并且持续时间更长;本文模型更加符合现实经济,样本内外预测能力较传统新凯恩斯DSGE模型与VAR模型好;当经济面临违约风险冲击及生产力冲击时,中央银行运用包含逆风策略的货币政策工具与宏观审慎政策工具相配合对经济波动影响最小,更有利于维护金融稳定以及减少福利损失.     

我国货币政策的社会就业效应

货币政策工具无论是流通中现金量还是社会信贷余额都对社会就业具有积极的促进作用,而且这一作用具有较强的持续性.在经济增长带来的社会就业有限的前提下,政府可以考虑使用货币政策缓解日益严峻的就业形势.社会信贷余额的社会就业效应要大于流通中现金量,因此,当政府考虑使用货币政策来缓解社会就业时,相对于流通中现金量,可以优先考虑使用社会信贷余额这一货币政策工具.     

The Explanatory Power of Monetary Policy Rules

Over the past 20 years, the use of monetary policy rules has become pervasive in analyzing and prescribing monetary policy. This paper traces the development of such rules and their use in the analysis, prediction, and stabilization of national economies. In particular, rules provide insight into eras in which monetary policy was not effective as well as when it was, such as the persistence of the ongoing “Great Moderation.” The paper stresses the “scientific” contributions of rules, including their insight into fluctuations of housing construction and exchange rates, as well as into the term structure of interest rates. JEL Classification E52, E58     

欧元区财政与货币政策非对称性搭配的经济效应分析——搭便车问题的蒙代尔—弗莱明模型分析

欧元启动后,欧盟统一的货币政策和相对分散的财政政策成为欧盟政策协调的一个核心问题。采用一般均衡的分析方法,运用蒙代尔—弗莱明模型对这一非对称性制度搭配所带来的搭便车问题进行了分析,指出成员国财政政策协调失灵和财政危机将会引发欧盟整体的汇率危机和银行业危机等一系列现实问题。     

Labor Markets and Monetary Policy

Headline employment numbers have been consistent with previous recoveries from recession. Behind the headlines, however, there are troubling data that suggest that the recovery of labor markets is weaker than what would be suggested by prior experience. In particular, labor force participation is weaker than expected, and the duration of unemployment has been longer. This paper describes the dimensions of the problems, their implications, and issues concerning whether the U.S. Federal Reserve could have done more to forestall them—particularly with respect to its Large Scale Asset Purchases program.     

Government Lending and Monetary Policy

The financial dimension of the current contraction has brought a historic expansion in government lending to financial market participants, mostly through an expanding array of Federal Reserve (Fed) initiatives. This contrasts with the Fed's typical response to recent recessions that has been limited to adjustments of the target Fed funds rate. Restrictions on credit supply and declines of creditworthiness have both contributed to the contraction in lending, although the latter cause has probably been underestimated relative to the former. Fed and other government lending programs have targeted particular sectors, altering the allocation of credit across markets. Also, targeted credit programs contribute to the moral hazard problem inherent in the provision of government-funded credit or guarantees. An alternative approach to monetary policy where the Fed funds target is essentially zero is purchasing Treasuries, which is likely to have little effect on the relative credit spreads on different financial instruments. However, given that targeted lending has taken place, it is critical that regulatory mechanisms be installed so that government regulation matches the scope of government support. Also, targeted lending by the Fed is in effect fiscal policy. Is this a legitimate role for a central bank, or should such lending be subject to legislative approval, with the Fed's role limited to monetary stability?     

Treaty Reform: Consequences for Monetary Policy

The proposed reform treaty, aimed at enhancing the efficiency and democratic legitimacy of the enlarged Union as well as its position on the global stage, has a number of important implications for monetary policy and the status of the European Central Bank. Can the reforms be expected to make euro area governance more efficient? Could they potentially jeopardise the ECB's independence and European monetary policy? Member of the Panel of Experts of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, to which the article was first presented as a Briefing Paper for the Monetary Dialogue with the President of the European Central Bank in October 2007. The author gratefully acknowledges the helpful comments of Edin Mujagic and the excellent research assistance of Rob Nijskens.     

金融摩擦、产权异质与不同类型货币政策工具的效应

以金融摩擦与国有投资比重为约束条件,在新古典的逻辑框架内,本文构建了一个既体现中国经济结构的特殊性,又符合主流经济逻辑且能打开货币政策传导机制“黑箱”的理论模型.据此对中国不同货币政策工具类型的传导机制与传导效应进行剖析,同时提出假说并对其进行实证检验.研究发现:一是只要充分考虑市场的不完全性特征,新古典逻辑框架仍能对中国货币政策的传导提供强有力的解释;二是市场的严重不完全,可以衍生出多重重要政策含义;三是就货币政策的传导效果而言,利率市场化改革的含义远非是仅仅放开金融资源的价格,而是一个系统工程.     

货币政策、财政政策对我国投资行为影响的实证分析

本文基于新古典主义的投资函数,使用最新的季度数据建立了非限制性的向量自回归模型和向量误差修正模型,对影响我国3种不同类型投资——固定资产投资、房地产建设投资以及外商直接投资的各种因素进行分析,并结合脉冲响应分析对投资行为面对冲击的反应进行了比较。研究结果表明,这3种投资与重要的货币政策工具利率水平、税率代理指标和国内有效需求之间存在长期稳定关系,但利率和税率对3种投资的影响程度和时滞却都存在差异。因此,国家在使用货币政策以及财政政策对投资行为进行宏观调控时,应充分考虑到这些差异,这样才能更有效地使用政策工具来调节投资,进而达到调控总体经济行为的目的。     

中国财政货币政策协调配合范式选择

十九大报告指出,推动经济高质量发展是当前和今后确定发展思路、制定经济政策、实施宏观调控的根本要求。据此,本文构建新凯恩斯DSGE模型,采用Markov-Switch方法对我国财政货币政策搭配体制估计识别并进行数值模拟,以系统考察不同政策搭配下的经济波动性,最后借以探讨保障经济行稳致远的最优政策组合。经验估计表明,改革开放以来我国主要遵循以主动型财政政策和被动型货币政策组合为主的宏观调控范式。进一步的数值模拟发现,充分考虑物价稳定的主动型货币政策和充分考虑债务稳定的被动型财政政策组合更易消化外生冲击导致的经济波动,而主动型财政政策和被动型货币政策组合熨平经济周期的效果最差。为此,本文认为未来政府宏观调控应从以主动型财政政策和被动型货币政策为主的协调配合范式逐步转向以主动型货币政策和被动型财政政策为主的协调配合范式,以全面提升宏观调控效率,并为推动新时代中国经济高质量发展营造稳定的宏观经济环境。