Credit stimulus and corporate excess employees

This study examines how the large and unexpected Chinese credit stimulus in 2008 affects firms' labor decision. Using a large sample of industrial firms, we find that state-owned enterprises tend to hire more employment than their counterparts after the credit stimulus. Mechanism analysis shows that the credit stimulus package is followed by lower financing costs and more bank loans for the state-owned enterprises, enhancing the degree of their excess employment compared with their counterparts. Moderating effect tests suggest that the overemployment effect is stronger in provinces with a high unemployment level, where the political leaders have stronger promotion incentives, in industries that are selected as the key stimulating industry, and in provinces with higher bank competition level, but weaker in provinces with higher marketization level. Finally, we find that the firm's overemployment caused by the credit stimulus plans decreases firm labor productivity. Overall, our findings shed light on how credit policy influence firms' labor decision and offer important implications for regulators.     

Local economic effects of bank failures

This study tests the hypothesis that bank failures have adverse effects on economic activity in the communities where the failed banks are located. The literature on the economic effects of credit constraints provides the theoretical foundation for adverse economic effects of bank failures. The data are for rural counties in Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. The measures of local economic activity are the value of sales and employment. The empirical results indicate that bank failures depress local sales, and, for some of the states, the closing of failed banks depresses local employment.Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisThe views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or the Federal Reserve System.     

数字金融、银行信贷渠道与货币政策传导

作为新兴金融业态,数字金融发展会对既有金融体系带来怎样的冲击和影响?聚焦于货币政策传导机制这一宏观命题,立足于我国以银行信贷渠道为主导的数量型中介,运用我国商业银行、A股上市公司的微观面板数据,本文深度剖析了数字金融发展与货币政策银行信贷渠道传导之间的内在联系和影响机理。研究发现:(1)数字金融发展显著弱化了货币政策银行信贷渠道的传导效应,采用工具变量法克服内生性和控制影子银行变量等一系列稳健性检验后的结果依然支持该结论。(2)具体而言,数字金融削弱银行信贷渠道传导效果是通过改变银行资产负债结构和弱化实体企业对银行贷款的依赖而实现的。(3)上述弱化效应在以城市和农村商业银行为主的中小型金融机构以及低资本、低流动性和低报酬的银行中尤为突出。     

Bank credit risk and credit information sharing in Africa: Does credit information sharing institutions and context matter?

The study examines credit information sharing through private credit bureaus and public credit registries and their effect on bank credit risk in low and high income countries in Africa. The study covers periods between 2006 and 2012 with 548 bank observations in Africa. Employing a Prais-Winsten panel data estimation, the study established that credit information sharing whether through private credit bureaus or public credit registries reduces bank credit risk in both low and high income countries and Africa as a whole. Further analyses reveal that credit information shared through public credit registries was only negatively and significantly related to bank credit risk when all countries that share credit information through public credit registries are observed as one unit but had no significant effect in low or high income countries. On the contrary, credit information shared through private credit bureaus reported a negative and significant effect on credit risk in low and high income countries as well as all countries that shared information through private credit bureaus. This suggests that credit information shared through private credit bureaus are more robust in dealing with bank credit risk regardless of a banks’ income bracket. Hence, countries that do not share credit information should do so especially through private credit bureaus so as to help reduce bank credit risk regardless of the income bracket differences. Again, governments in Africa must enact laws that expand the coverage and scope of credit information shared so as to enhance the effectiveness of information sharing.     

On the direct and indirect real effects of credit supply shocks

We explore the real effects of bank-lending shocks and how they permeate the economy through buyer-supplier linkages. We combine administrative data on all Spanish firms with a matched bank-firm-loan dataset of all corporate loans from 2003 to 2013 to estimate firm-specific credit supply shocks for each year. We compute firm-specific measures of exposure to bank lending shocks of customers (upstream propagation) and suppliers (downstream propagation). Our findings suggest that credit supply shocks have sizable direct and downstream propagation effects on employment, investment, and output, especially during the 2008–2009 crisis, but no significant impact on employment during the expansion. We provide evidence that both trade credit extended by suppliers and price adjustments in general equilibrium explain downstream propagation of credit shocks.     

中国银行信贷超高速增长可持续吗?

本文对当前银行信贷市场形势,银行信贷超高速增长之原因及机理、面临的风险及效果作出分析,并对如何保持经济持续稳定发展提出了政策建议.     

Funding Liquidity without Banks: Evidence from a Shock to the Cost of Very Short‐Term Debt

In 2011, Colombia instituted a tax on repayment of bank loans, which increased the cost of short‐term bank credit more than long‐term credit. Firms responded by cutting short‐term loans for liquidity management purposes and increasing the use of cash and trade credit. In industries in which trade credit is more accessible (based on U.S. Compustat firms), we find substitution into accounts payable and little effect on cash and investment. Where trade credit is less available, firms increase cash and cut investment. Thus, trade credit provides an alternative source of liquidity that can insulate some firms from bank liquidity shocks.     

Corruption and Banking Stability: Evidence from Emerging Economies

This article investigates the effect of corruption on banking stability using data from banks in emerging markets. The analysis first reveals that a lower level of corruption had a positive impact on bank stability and is associated with fewer credit losses and with more moderate credit growth. It then highlights the importance of bank and country characteristics in identifying the asymmetric effects of corruption on bank stability. Our evidence suggests that stability of banks that are acting in a country that has not adopted a corporate governance code or is not a member of the European Union is affected more by the corruption. Also, in countries with higher levels of corruption banks could increase their stability if they implement rigorous corporate governance practices.     

Deflation,bank credit growth,and non-performing loans: Evidence from Japan

In this paper, I examine the link between bank credit growth and non-performing loans in an economy with deflationary pressures. Using panel OLS regressions and two-step GMM regressions, I find evidence for the time-varying relationship between bank credit growth and non-performing loans in a sample of 82 publicly listed commercial banks in Japan during the period 1993–2013. I show that bank credit growth positively correlates with non-performing loans prior to the onset of the global financial crisis of 2007 but negatively correlates with non-performing loans afterwards. I find evidence to support the notion that large banks drive the observed effects of credit growth on non-performing loans. In addition, credit growth and non-performing loans have no effect on profitability. Overall, the findings suggest that while the increase in the supply of bank loans increases the level of non-performing loans, it does not lead to higher profitability.     

考虑市场治理体系的银行债权治理及其效应研究——来自A股工业企业的经验证据

将银行债权、产品市场、经理人市场和公司控制权市场等机制作为市场治理机制,构成市场治理机制体系,采用深沪A股工业企业2006-2016年的数据,从检验中国市场化改革成效角度,以市场化体系中最为活跃的力量——银行债权为核心,考察其在市场化体系情境下对公司治理的作用机制及效应。研究发现:无论是否考虑市场治理体系,银行债权均发挥积极治理效应,且考虑体系时银行债权治理效应更强,动态优化幅度更大,优化趋势更明显;考虑体系时,除公司控制权市场外,银行债权与其他机制形成良性互动进而发挥积极的直接效应和间接效应,且直接效应占优。研究证明我国市场治理体系日益完善,市场化改革进程日益深化,但仍需进一步加大改革的力度。研究对肯定市场化改革成效,坚定市场化改革取向,进一步发挥银行债权治理效应,形成协同高效的市场治理体系和防范化解金融风险具有重要意义。     

Risk-weighted capital requirements and portfolio rebalancing

We use a 2013 Norwegian policy reform to study how banks react to higher capital requirements and how these adjustments transmit to the real economy. Using bank balance sheet data, we document that banks raise capital ratios by reducing risk-weighted assets. Most of the reduction in risk-weighted assets is accounted for by a reduction in average risk weights. Consistent with this reduction in risk, we document a substantial decline in credit supply to the corporate sector relative to the household sector. We also show that banks react to higher requirements by increasing interest rates, consistent with the reduction in corporate credit growth being supply driven. Using administrative loan level tax data, we document a reduction in lending on the firm level. This is robust to controlling for firm fixed effects, thereby accounting for potential firm-bank matching. Finally, we find that the reduction in bank lending has a negative impact on firm employment growth and that this effect is driven by small firms.     

产业集群发展与县域金融支持实证分析:梁山案例

本文通过对山东省梁山县专用汽车产业集群的产生、形成与发展以及金融支持的历程变化分析,认为银行基于产业集群为中小企业提供融资支持,能够缓解信息不对称,降低信贷风险和交易成本,增加收益。但由于产业集群内中小企业需求差异很大,单一的信贷产品供给却限制了金融支持的力度和深度。基于此,本文给出了试行契约型主办银行、多层次信贷创新以及加大财政支持等政策建议。     

产业集群发展与县域金融支持实证分析：粱山案例

本文通过对山东省梁山县专用汽车产业集群的产生、形成与发展以及金融支持的历程变化分析,认为银行基于产业集群为中小企业提供融资支持,能够缓解信息不对称,降低信贷风险和交易成本,增加收益。但由于产业集群内中小企业需求差异很大,单一的信贷产品供给却限制了金融支持的力度和深度。基于此,本文给出了试行契约型主办银行、多层次信贷创新以及加大财政支持等政策建议。     

Coinsurance effect and bank lines of credit

The coinsurance effect hypothesis predicts that firm diversification reduces financial constraints through imperfectly correlated cash flows among segments. We empirically test the hypothesis by studying the relation between coinsurance effect and bank lines of credit. We find that coinsurance effect is associated with a higher availability of bank lines of credit, and that diversified firms hold a higher level of bank lines of credit if they have higher investment opportunities and if they are bank-dependent. We find that diversified firms hold a higher fraction of corporate liquidity in the form of bank lines of credit due to the coinsurance effect. The findings are consistent with the coinsurance effect hypothesis and contribute to the debate on the value consequence of firm diversification by disclosing a specific channel through which firm diversification affects financial constraints.     

货币政策工具对银行信贷调控效果的量级差异——基于存款准备金率、利率的实证研究

我国货币政策主要通过信贷渠道进行传导,商业银行的信贷行为是货币政策传导的微观基础。本文通过分析山东省的稳健货币政策调控效应,认为商业银行通过信贷行为调整传导了调控政策,同时也引致了对冲调控策略行为。为分析不同货币政策工具调控约束力的量级差异,本文以银行信贷期限配置行为和房贷行为为例,将利率和存款准备金政策工具纳入向量自回归模型,利用脉冲响应分析不同货币政策调控工具对银行信贷行为的影响。     

An exploratory study of factors affecting credit card brand and category selection in India

This article aims to identify various credit card selection factors in the context of an Asian emerging economy – India. Considering the recent emergence of the three-tier banking system in India, the study proposes to investigate whether there exists an association between credit card selection factors and the type of credit card issuing bank (public, private national or private foreign). The article also seeks to find out whether the income level of the individual determines the type of credit card bank category selection, as prior literature suggests that demographic factors are closely related to credit card selection and usage patterns. The analysis was carried out using a mixed method research design involving thematic analysis of focus group data, factor analysis, PERMAP analysis and multiple correspondence analysis in different phases. Five primary credit card selection factors were identified. A strong correspondence between credit card selection factors, personal income levels and choice of credit card issuing bank was found. Accordingly, credit card selection factors and personal income level were together identified as factors affecting the type of bank selected. The phenomenon of bank category-based stereotyping of brands is emphasized based on the analysis. The implications of this phenomenon with respect to brand identity conception, target segmentation, brand positioning and marketing communication are discussed.     

Credit information,consolidation and credit market performance: Bank-level evidence from developing countries

Paying particular attention to the degree of banking market concentration in developing countries, this paper examines the effect of credit information sharing on bank lending. Using bank-level data from African countries over the period 2004 to 2009 and a dynamic two-step system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation, it is found that credit information sharing increases bank lending. The degree of banking market concentration moderates the effect of credit information sharing on bank lending. The results are robust to controlling for possible interactions between credit information sharing and governance.     

央行沟通、宏观经济环境与企业投资——利率渠道、信贷渠道与预期渠道货币政策的对比分析

本文对比研究央行沟通对企业投资的短周期引导能力。结果显示:在短周期内由于传导时滞,利率渠道的货币政策难以引导企业增加投资;信贷渠道的货币政策对企业投资有一定的引导作用;央行沟通能够通过预期渠道引导企业投资,但单独实行央行沟通的引导作用仍然有限。如果在进行央行沟通的同时配合信贷政策影响企业持有现金,就可能在短周期引导企业增加投资。此外,企业财务杠杆会减弱央行沟通的效果,企业投资价值对央行沟通效果没有显著影响。     

Winners or Losers? The Effects of Banking Consolidation on Corporate Borrowers

We estimate the impact of bank mergers and acquisitions (M&As) on outstanding credit, credit lines, and the sensitivity of investment to cash flow using a large sample of Italian corporate borrowers. We distinguish between firms that experienced relationship termination as a consequence of bank M&As and those that did not. Our findings are consistent with bank M&As having an adverse effect on credit, particularly when the M&A is followed by relationship termination. The effect persists 3 years and then is absorbed, suggesting that firms are able to compensate for the negative shock.     

Bank Lending Standards and Access to Lines of Credit

This paper examines how changes in bank lending standards are related to the availability of bank lines of credit for private and comparable public firms. Overall, we find that access to lines of credit is more contingent on bank lending standards for private than for public firms. The impact of bank lending standards is however asymmetric: while private firms are less likely than public firms to gain access to new lines when credit market conditions are tight, we find no difference between public and private firms in terms of their use or retention of pre‐existing lines. We also find that private firms without lines of credit use more trade credit when bank lending standards are tight, which is suggestive of a supply effect. Overall, the evidence suggests that “credit crunches” are likely to have a disproportionate impact on private firms. However, pre‐existing banking relationships appear to mitigate the impact of these contractions on private firms.