金融改革对收入不平等的影响研究——理论解释与实证分析

采集55个新兴市场国家的非平衡面板数据,使用动态门限面板模型实证结果表明,金融改革与收入不平等间存在明显的门限效应,当金融改革水平低于门限值时,金融改革会扩大收入差距;当金融改革水平越过门限值时,金融改革有利于收入差距的缩小.多数新兴市场国家金融改革对降低收入不平等已经发挥正向效应,为缩小新兴市场国家收入差距,必须进一步深化金融改革.     

中国信用规模与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于1986～2004年的协整分析

本文以中国经济改革和金融发展为背景,运用协整检验和误差纠正模型对中国信用规模与经济增长的长期稳定关系进行研究.协整分析结果表明,GDP与信用总规模之间存在协整关系,信用总规模对经济增长的拉动作用明显;GDP与金融信用、企业信用和政府信用规模之间同样存在协整关系,GDP与金融信用和企业信用规模有较强的正向关系,但是GDP与政府信用规模之间存在负向关系.此外,误差纠正模型结果表明,校正作用较为明显.     

Effect of the Sovereign Credit Ratings in East Asia Countries: Evidence from Panel Vector Autoregression

We study the effect of the sovereign credit ratings on the economies of seven East Asian countries, applying panel vector autoregression (VAR). We find that rating has less effect than outlook of rating on the credit default swap (CDS) spreads, the stock indexes, and the GDP growth rates. Rating upgrade and positive outlook have stronger effects than rating downgrade and negative outlook, and the effects of positive outlook and rating are greater after the financial crisis. There is evidence of contagion in that the economic variables of a country seem to have been affected by the outlooks of the other countries.     

收入不平等、政府支出与实际汇率——基于跨国面板数据的研究

已有较多研究讨论了实际汇率的决定因素,而从收入不平等角度出发的研究并不多。本文搜集和整理了172个国家和地区1970年到2016年的跨国面板数据,分析了收入不平等对一国实际汇率的影响,并引入政府支出探究了收入分配对非贸易品部门和实际汇率的影响机制。实证检验结果表明,对于非OECD国家,收入不平等和实际汇率显著负相关,即收入越不平等,实际汇率高估越严重,而在OECD国家中这一现象并不存在。进一步的影响机制分析发现,对于非OECD国家,一国收入不平等加剧会导致该国政府支出增多,从而扩大了非贸易品部门规模,导致非贸易品的相对价格上升,使得实际汇率高估。     

Sovereign credit rating determinants: A comparison before and after the European debt crisis

This paper compares the importance of different sovereign credit rating determinants over time, using a sample of 90 countries for the years 2002–2015. Applying the composite marginal likelihood approach, we estimate a multi-year ordered probit model for each of the three major credit rating agencies. After the start of the European debt crisis in 2009, the importance of the financial balance, the economic development and the external debt increased substantially and the effect of eurozone membership switched from positive to negative. In addition, GDP growth gained a lot of importance for highly indebted sovereigns and government debt became much more important for countries with a low GDP growth rate. These findings provide empirical evidence that the credit rating agencies changed their sovereign credit rating assessment after the start of the European debt crisis.     

Does Insurance Market Activity Promote Economic Growth? A Cross‐Country Study for Industrialized and Developing Countries

Insurance market activity may contribute to economic growth, both as financial intermediary and provider of risk transfer and indemnification, by allowing different risks to be managed more efficiently and by mobilizing domestic savings. During the last decade, there has been faster growth in insurance market activity, particularly in emerging markets, given the process of financial liberalization and integration, which raises questions about the overall impact on economic growth. This article tests whether there is a causal relationship between insurance market activity (life and nonlife insurance) and economic growth. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) for dynamic models of panel data for 55 countries between 1976 and 2004, I find robust evidence for this relationship. Both life and nonlife insurance have a positive and significant causal effect on economic growth. For life insurance, high‐income countries drive the results, and for nonlife insurance, both high‐income and developing countries drive the results.     

Does Financial Openness Matter in the Relationship Between Financial Development and Income Distribution in Latin America?

This article examines the effect of financial development on income distribution by analyzing a sample of Latin American countries according to their degree of financial openness for the 1990–2011 period. The period includes the time before and after financial liberalization for most of the countries in the region. As the literature provides inconclusive results regarding the relationship between financial development and income inequality, we aim to determine whether financial openness plays a role in this relationship. Our results provide an explanation for why some countries regardless of their degree of financial openness cannot achieve a reduction in income inequality.     

A closer look at financial development and income distribution

This paper analyzes the under-investigated relationship uniting financial development and income distribution. We use a novel approach taking into account for the first time the specific channels linking banks, capital markets and income inequality, the time-varying nature of the relationship, and reciprocal causality. We construct a set of annual indicators of banking and capital market size, robustness, efficiency and international integration. We then estimate the determinants of income distribution using a panel Bayesian structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, for a set of 49 countries over the 1994-2002 period. We uncover a significant causality running from financial sector development to income distribution. In addition, the banking sector seems to exert a stronger impact on inequality. Finally, the relationship appears to depend on the characteristics of the financial sector, rather than on its size.     

Does inequality lead to a financial crisis?

The recent global crisis has sparked interest in the relationship between income inequality, credit booms, and financial crises. Rajan (2010) and Kumhof and Rancière (2011) propose that rising inequality led to a credit boom and eventually to a financial crisis in the US in the first decade of the 21st century as it did in the 1920s. Data from 14 advanced countries between 1920 and 2000 suggest these are not general relationships. Credit booms heighten the probability of a banking crisis, but we find no evidence that a rise in top income shares leads to credit booms. Instead, low interest rates and economic expansions are the only two robust determinants of credit booms in our data set. Anecdotal evidence from US experience in the 1920s and in the years up to 2007 and from other countries does not support the inequality, credit, crisis nexus. Rather, it points back to a familiar boom-bust pattern of declines in interest rates, strong growth, rising credit, asset price booms and crises.     

“互联网＋”、普惠金融与经济增长-基于面板数据的PVAR模型实证检验

运用多元测算方法和主成分分析法获取我国31个地区2008-2014年“互联网+”、普惠金融和经济增长相关变量数据,借助面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)研究三类变量间的动态关系,实证研究发现:“互联网+”和普惠金融对经济增长的影响程度相当,经济增长对“互联网+”的影响较大,而对普惠金融影响相对较小.微观上看,三者之间正向作用已经存在,普惠金融对城镇化率和贸易开放度驱动的经济增长具有正向促进作用,“互联网+”对普惠金融发展、城镇化率和贸易开放度驱动的经济增长也具有正向促进作用,因此,需要各经济主体加强基础性投入、注重精准化投入并做到长期坚持以促进三者协同发展.但从长期看,普惠金融对“互联网+”和经济增长率和居民消费价格指数驱动的经济增长存在负面冲击,“互联网+”对经济增长率和居民消费价格指数驱动的经济增长也具有微弱的负面冲击,因此,需要政府层面加强统一监管并积极理顺三者之间的关系,以消除其中的摩擦因素.     

Capital account liberalization and income inequality

This article makes both a theoretical and an empirical contribution to the literature on financial liberalization and income inequality. In the first part, we develop a tractable model that features agents with varying investment abilities and a banking sector. There are two possible interventions to liberalize the banking sector: first, a reduction in reserve requirements, and, second, an increase in the amount of foreign funds that can be used to finance domestic loans. Financial liberalization leads to enhanced banking sector efficiency and adjustments in interest rates affecting income of investors and savers, and, therefore, income inequality. Theoretically, the impact of financial liberalization on income inequality is ambiguous. Yet, the model suggests that financial liberalization will improve income distribution in countries where financial depth is high. Our empirical estimates confirm this conditional effect. More precisely, the estimates suggest that capital account liberalization only tends to lower income inequality if the level of financial depth, as measured by private credit over GDP, exceeds 25 percent.     

Bank capital and economic activity

Banks argue that holding higher capital will have adverse implications on their lending activities and thereby on economic growth. Yet, the effect of a stronger capital base on economic growth remains largely unsettled. We argue that better capitalized banks improve financial stability conditions and, in dire times, they are able to sustain credit to the economy thereby containing adverse macroeconomic implications. Using various methods, we test for the presence and strength of a financial stability channel and a bank lending channel by drawing evidence from 47 advanced and developing countries over close to two decades. We find that higher capital ratios improve financial stability and help sustain bank lending, ultimately exerting a positive influence on economic activity. These effects on real GDP growth are economically significant, reaching up to 1¼ percentage points for each percentage point acceleration in capital. Our main results are robust to various sensitivity checks, supporting the conclusion that safer banking systems do not bridle economic activity.     

Financial inclusion and gross capital formation: A sectoral analysis approach for the MENA region and EMs

Most Middle East and North Africa (MENA) governments have firmly committed to financial inclusion as part of a progressive agenda. In this, their objective is to improve the allocation of resources across small and medium firms. Indeed, empirical literature has quantitatively shown that financial inclusion improves nations' aggregate measures of economic success such as growth or inequality. But we know very little of its effects on sectoral variates. This paper contributes to the literature by estimating and comparing the effects of financial inclusion on the relative size of gross capital formation of low-tech sectors in the MENA region. We use a panel of 3-digit level sectoral data on approximately 34 manufacturing industries of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) for eleven MENA countries and twelve emerging markets (EMs) within the period 2005–2016. The paper focuses in four measures of financial inclusion commonly used in the literature of development: size of commercial bank branches, ATMs, borrowers, and depositors. The results suggest that financial inclusion in MENA has a positive, statistically significant effect on the size of gross capital formation in the low R&D-intensity industries. Thus, policy considerations can be directed towards expanding financial services to other low-tech industries including fabricated metal products and to the medium tech division including repair and installation of machinery and equipment industries. This policy will have greater impact on gross capital formation and, thereby, economic growth.     

The inequality-credit nexus

This paper explores the inequality-credit nexus from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective. The paper develops an overlapping generation model in which the effect of income inequality on private credit depends on the countries’ per capita income and on the quality of laws protecting creditor rights. The model predicts that greater inequality leads to higher levels of private credit in countries with low per capita incomes and weak legal rights, while this effect is ambiguous or negative in economies with higher aggregate income and stronger credit protection. Using a panel dataset of 155 countries over the 1982–2015 period, the paper shows empirical evidence that is robust and consistent with the model’s predictions. The paper’s major finding suggests a credit channel through which inequality may affect economic outcomes.     

我国金融发展与经济增长关系的区域差异分析——兼论分税制改革对金融发展与经济增长关系的影响

本文利用1979～2003年的省级面板数据,将我国分为东、中、西三大区域,考察了金融发展对经济增长的影响,结果表明:把国有商业银行贷款占GDP的比例作为金融发展的衡量指标对三大地区人均GDP均具有显著的正相关性,金融发展促进经济增长的理论在我国同样成立;但金融发展与实体经济部门之间均不存在良性互动的关系,其对经济增长的贡献仅仅停留在增加资本积累上,对资本配置效率的改善作用不大;1994年的分税制改革对金融发展促进经济增长的作用造成了显著的负面影响。因此,我国的金融体制改革需要将金融体制改革、国有企业改革、财税体制改革和政府体制改革纳入同一个分析框架中进行。     

Fiscal incentives,financial support for agriculture,and urban-rural inequality

Urban-rural inequality is a significant social problem for developing countries in the process of economic development. Using regional-level panel data from 2004 to 2018, this paper estimates the effect of financial support for agriculture on the urban-rural income gap in China via a staggered difference-in-difference method. In 2009, the finance department issued a Notice on Launching the Pilot Work of Incremental Reward for Agricultural Loans by County Financial Institutions (IRAL) and established an incentive mechanism to leverage financial funds to guide and motivate county financial institutions to increase their investment in agriculture-related credit and support agricultural development. The results show that, through fiscal incentives, financial institutions have more incentives to increase agricultural loans and urban-rural income inequality significantly declined throughout the study data period, particularly in underdeveloped areas. We propose that this policy reduces urban-rural income inequality via three mechanisms: financial availability, shift of labor, and human capital. Furthermore, we also examined the effect of IRAL on the urban-rural consumption inequality, although no significant relationship was found.     

The short-run relationship between the financial system and economic growth: New evidence from regional panels

In this paper, we examine the impact of the financial system on economic growth for a panel of 65 developing countries. The novelty of our paper is that we examine these relationships for various regional panels. Our main findings are that while for the full panel of 65 countries there is evidence of financial sector-led growth, bank credit has a negative effect on economic growth. At the regional level, for the Middle Eastern countries evidence suggests that neither the financial sector nor the banking sector contributes to growth. Except for Asia, the role of financial sector development on economic growth is relatively weak. Finally, except for the Middle Eastern countries, clear evidence is found in favour of bank credit having a statistically significant and negative effect on economic growth.     

金融摩擦、收入风险与财富不平等

本文通过构建带有职业选择的两部门异质模型,探讨了个体面临的金融摩擦和收入风险对财富分配的作用机制。结果发现,经济中存在的金融摩擦会通过职业选择、自我保险和自融资来影响个人的财富积累,从而导致财富的集中和不平等。对模型模拟的结果表明:降低金融摩擦在总体上会降低财富不平等程度,但对不同财富阶层的影响不同,其在大幅减少前1%和前10%阶层财富份额的同时,虽然也会在一定程度上提升后50%阶层的财富份额,但提升幅度并不大,过高或过低的企业家收入风险,都会加大财富不平等程度,因而存在一个使经济中财富不平等程度最低的适度企业家收入风险水平;虽然金融摩擦和收入风险都会影响经济中的财富不平等,但收入风险本身对财富不平等程度的影响较小,其主要是通过金融摩擦放大了经济中财富不平等的程度。     

Financial Development and Income Inequality: Long-Run Relationship and Short-Run Heterogeneity

This article examines the dynamic relationship between financial development and income inequality using the PMG. We find that financial development will reduce inequality in the long run, while it can increase inequality in the short run. Using the estimates of country-specific short-run coefficients, we also find that adverse short-run effects of financial development are associated with the vulnerabilities of countries in terms of their greater susceptibility to crises and poor quality of governance. Good governance seems to be important for achieving inclusive growth though financial development.     

企业金融化与劳动收入份额变动

本文从企业金融化的角度解释了上市公司劳动收入份额的变动,虽然基准结果显示,企业金融化能够促进劳动收入份额提升,但基于欧拉方程分解和中介变量法的验证发现,企业金融化一方面对工资水平产生正向溢出并提升了劳动收入份额,即表现出“盈利溢出”效应;另一方面,企业金融化却会抑制企业劳动生产率的改进,客观上造成劳动要素在生产中的地位上升进而带来劳动收入份额的提升,即表现出“技术抑制”效应。进一步分析发现,高管的劳动收入份额获益幅度小于普通员工(私营企业中更明显),说明经典的“委托-代理”框架并不能有效地解释中国企业的金融化行为;与此同时,企业金融化的影响和金融市场收益率具有强相关性,表明企业金融化的动力来自金融市场的收益激励。本文研究结论表明,企业金融化是企业在金融市场超额收益时期的“理性选择”,伴随金融市场回归并运行在合理区间,企业金融化对劳动收入份额的提升作用不仅不可持续,而且会对劳动生产率产生持续损害,借助趋利性的企业金融化来获得劳动收入份额的提升无异于“饮鸩止渴”。本文的研究结论可为我国进一步深化金融体系供给侧结构性改革,引导金融回归本源,更好地服务于实体经济提供有益参考。